The West Australian has published a Westpoll survey of 400 respondents, of whom 181 (exact figures provided) said they preferred that the Nationals form an alliance with the Liberals against 129 who preferred Labor (44 per cent to 32 per cent). Of the former group, “33 per cent said they believed National voters were traditionally more Liberal than Labor, 32 per cent said the big swing in the election showed voters wanted to get rid of Labor, 21 per cent said Labor had ignored country people, 15 per cent said they preferred Mr Barnett and 6 per cent said it was because of Labor’s one-vote, one-value legislation”. The Liberals were favoured 53-47 on voting intention, although Alan Carpenter retains a lead of 47 per cent to 37 per cent as preferred premier. “Nearly eight out of 10” expressed support for major city projects being shelved to accommodate Royalties for Regions.
The West also reports Jim McGinty “has conceded Labor has probably lost the crucial seats of Wanneroo and Riverton”, where the Liberals say they lead by 280 and 62 votes. The Liberals believe themselves to be 28 votes behind in Albany, whereas Labor thinks the Liberals are one vote ahead. Unless recounts are called, the matter should be settled with tomorrow’s full distribution of preferences. Other seats which might yet hold surprises in store:
North West. Labor’s Vince Catania is the presumed winner of this seat having gained a 1.3 per cent swing, an outwardly remarkable result. However, hidden within this figure is one of the stories of the election: the Nationals polled 22.3 per cent after failing to contest the equivalent seats in 2005, gouging 10.1 per cent from the Liberal primary vote along with 7.2 per cent from Labor. This puts them in third place on 22.3 per cent behind 36.4 per cent for Labor and 27.0 per cent for Liberal. Preferences from independent Lex Fullarton (7.1 per cent), and to a lesser extent Greens candidate Peter Shaw (7.2 per cent, most of which will flow to Labor) might yet give them the 4.7 per cent boost they need to get ahead of the Liberals, in which case they would comfortably win the seat on Liberal preferences. The difference between the primary and notional two-party results suggest as many as 40 per cent of Nationals preferences were flowing to Labor (UPDATE: A Labor source writes to say it was more like a third, Labor’s other preferences coming from Fullarton; expects a significant proportion of Fullarton votes, including donkey votes, to go straight to Labor rather than helping the Nationals close their gap on the Liberals). However, it would have been a very different story in the Agricultural and South West region seats which the Nationals actually won, and to which their MPs will have to return after deciding which horse to back.
Kwinana. Independent candidate Carol Adams, who it must be said has reason to be displeased with the ALP, may have crowed too early when she expressed interest in the police and local government portfolios. As the count progressed her primary vote deficit against Labor increased from 15.4 per cent to 18.7 per cent, leaving her needing 77 per cent of preferences from the other candidates. Antony Green estimates she will receive 85 per cent, perhaps 90 per cent, of the 18.8 per cent Liberal vote. However, her share of other candidates’ votes (10.5 per cent Greens, 3.8 per cent Family First and 1.7 per cent for another independent) is likely to be in the high sixties. That makes it a very close call.
Alfred Cove. On Wednesday, The West Australian reported that Liberal candidate Chris Back was “closing” on independent member Janet Woollard, who led by just 20 votes. However, nothing has been heard since. Woollard trails Back 43.3 per cent to 25.3 per cent on the primary vote, and will need about 73 per cent of the preferences from Labor (20.3 per cent), the Greens (9.5 per cent) and the Christian Democratic Party (1.5 per cent).
In the upper house, the only certain result is the reliable North Metropolitan region, which has returned three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens member. The Liberals have also done very well to win three seats in the other two metropolitan regions, in which the Greens and the third Labor are fighting for the final seats. The Nationals have won two seats in Agricultural and are in what looks like a winning battle with Family First for a third, with the remainder going two Liberal and one Labor. South West also has the Nationals leading Family First in a contest for the final seat, the others going three Liberal and two Labor. The Nationals have also won one seat and possibly two in Mining and Pastoral, the second seat coming down to a fight with the Greens, while Labor and the Liberals have won two each.
Labor will thus win between 11 and 13 seats, and the Nationals three to six. Getting a Labor-Nationals Royalties for Regions deal through without the support of the Greens or Family First would require the best case scenario for both parties, which almost certainly won’t happen: the Greens are ahead in all three of their doubtful seats, to add to their certain win in North Metropolitan. The Liberals on the other hand will definitely have a majority of the 36 seats together with the Nationals, appearing almost certain to win 16 seats.
UPDATE: It’s confirmed that Labor is home in North West and Pilbara. The Sunday Times has a very interesting article on the Nationals’ deliberations, suggesting Warren Truss is desperately trying to talk Brendon Grylls out of a possible deal with Labor. Nationals MP Max Trenorden, an opponent of the Labor option, says he is “not going to say whether I am happy with the decision or not, but I’m certainly not going to commit suicide over it”.
The West online is suggesting the Nats and ALP have reached an agreement on uranium mining:
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=97613
William – Nationals MP Max Trenorden, an opponent of the Labor option, says he is “not going to say whether I am happy with the decision or not, but I’m certainly not going to commit suicide over it”.
That’s a dead set giveaway isn’t it?
I trust Grylls will be happy with just four more years in politics. Maybe he could be a staffer for Labor when he finishes?
It is hard to voluntarily step back from government but that is the only sane option for Labor. A deal with the Nats has no chance of surviving full term, comparisons to what has happened in South Aust. aren’t really that relevant. Dealing with one person is easy compared to dealing with 4, and while Brendan may be comfortable with dealing with labor for how long will his comrades feel that way? If Carpenter is dealing from a position of strategic advantage he will offer plenty forcing the Libs to match it and then sit back and watch the mess unfold.
Yep, sure is, I expect quite a few disgruntled nats to jump ship to The Libs, especially in the Lay Party if that is the case or there will be a split and a new party formed.
“Yep, sure is, I expect quite a few disgruntled nats to jump ship to The Libs, especially in the Lay Party if that is the case or there will be a split and a new party formed.”
Do you mean National MP’s Frank or rank and file party members?
Frank – it hasn’t happened yet. If it was that obvious he would just announce it. I would say he is waiting to see what will happen re number of seats. I would say what they have agreed to is a labor alliance except in the circumstance where labor need them AND one or two independants in which case the Nats will not be holding the balance of power (or at least they AND the Inds will be).
In this scenario they would be better going with the Libs and the Libs Inds as this would be far more reliable.
Gary, use [ ] around text and this will indent like so….
[just like this]
[Gary, use [ ] around text and this will indent like so….]
Thanks Elf.
welcome
While Truss is trying to talk Grylls out of it probably Joyce is on the other line trying to talk him into it.
Possibly Both, but I’m guessing Rank & File members first and foremost, and possibly one of the Upper House members.
So how many state/territory elections in a row without a Liberal win would this be?
I thought it was a dead giveaway Karleen Maywald was in Perth today, advising the WA Nats. She’s got a good working relationship with the Rann govt – you do the maths.
Yes, the Trenorden comment is the article’s real eye-catcher.
G’day Dario – it’s Landslide from the other place.
In answer to your question: the last state election the Liberals won was in the late 1990s?
And I’d argue that today’s N.S.W council elections haven’t been a great result for the Libs either(although admittedly Labor has done badly too)
If Grylls can get everything he wants out of Carpenter and delivers I don’t see why the National Party’s constituents would complain to be honest.
And perhaps Barnett blew it by lecturing to the Nationals that they SHOULD unite with the Liberals, being arrogant enough to assume it would happen?
Can someone enlighten me to the latest seat count. How many are still in doubt??
Intrigued but secretly pleased by prospect of ALP-Nats deal.
Andrew, the ABC news tonight in Sydney was saying Labor would end up with 27 seats out of a parliament of 59 – not sure how accurate that is?
[And I’d argue that today’s N.S.W council elections haven’t been a great result for the Libs either(although admittedly Labor has done badly too)]
Yeah I was surprised that there wasn’t the total bloodbath I had been expecting. Bad… but not quite.
Labor wins by 98 votes in Forrestfield.
Well, it seems that only Albany, Forrestfield and Riverton remain in doubt – together with Kwinana, which seems to have been given to Labor by many media outlets in the last 36 hours. Nine News here in Perth was also giving Alfred Cove to the Liberals tonight.
I’m surprised that only North West seems to have been definitively given so far. If that’s because of the relatively tiny number of electors, expect Albany to be next off the blocks.
I wonder if Woolards pledge to support a Barnett Liberal Govt alienated her personal support base, and probably thought if we wanted a LIberal Govt, it’s better to vote for the real deal.
How many seats would the Libs have?
Liberal by 300 votes in Wanneroo.
An Electorate once filled with Market Gardens is now an Electorate of McMansions, especially in the suburbs of Tapping.
Labor at worst has 26 seats?
Add on Kwinana and it’s 27?
Still waiting for Albany and Riverton. Alfred Cove, Morley, Nedlands, Kwinana and Collie-Preston to be conducted tomorrow.
[Labor at worst has 26 seats?
Add on Kwinana and it’s 27?]
While thew Libs have 24- 25 if Alfred Cove is in the mix.
And William, congratulations on the new site, it’s great!
If the NATS do deal with the ALP then we are going to have to work out what it means nationally. The first thing we will hear is an assurance from Truss on the coalition.
Followed by the opposite from Barnaby? Or do you think they’ve put him back in his box.
It also puts a lot of pressure on the Liberal leadership to come. If Turnbull does take over and doesn’t produce any significant gains the NATS are going to get a bit nervous and think they also need to differentiate themselves a bit more. The might start to act a little more independently on some issues.
So it will be fascinating if the dynamics to get a shake up.
If the Nats would start voting with Labor in the Senate on some issues, that’d help Rudd get some of his bills passed.
Trenorden’s comments do seem to be a giveaway. It wouldnt be “historic” if it was a Libs-Nat deal. And wouldnt the libs need the nats and independents to govern? surely the nats could argue that a lab-nat alliance is a more stable alternative
[If the Nats would start voting with Labor in the Senate on some issues, that’d help Rudd get some of his bills passed.]
One Nat senator said if Labor made an amendment to the luxury car tax, he’d cross the floor.
Where did Trenorden say these comments? I couldn’t find the article.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24341298-948,00.html
Cheers.
[One Nat senator said if Labor made an amendment to the luxury car tax, he’d cross the floor.]
What sort of amendment though? To exempt primary producers? ffs they get enough breaks these days don’t they?
[Where did Trenorden say these comments? I couldn’t find the article.]
He said the following.
[Mr Trenorden said: “There were 12 different points of view in the meeting. (The decision) wasn’t unaninimous, but in the end we came to a decision by consensus.
“It’s a historic result, whichever way it goes. I am not going to say whether I am happy with the decision or not, but I’m certainly not going to commit suicide over it.”]
The Nationals fell 67 votes short of overtaking the Liberals at the second last count in North West: if they got there they’d have won. Full count here.
[What sort of amendment though? To exempt primary producers? ffs they get enough breaks these days don’t they?]
Yeah it was something like that, but it shows they’re willing to negotiate and not oppose for the sake of it like the Libs. The Nats are a bunch of socially conservative socialists, they got nothing against a tax!
bloody heck
[but it shows they’re willing to negotiate and not oppose for the sake of it like the Libs]
true
Liberal by 64 votes in Riverton.
Are they still counting?
Yes, Albany still to come this evening.
so far it is running to script..well as was thought anyway