Westpoll: Liberal favoured for Nationals alliance

The West Australian has published a Westpoll survey of 400 respondents, of whom 181 (exact figures provided) said they preferred that the Nationals form an alliance with the Liberals against 129 who preferred Labor (44 per cent to 32 per cent). Of the former group, “33 per cent said they believed National voters were traditionally more Liberal than Labor, 32 per cent said the big swing in the election showed voters wanted to get rid of Labor, 21 per cent said Labor had ignored country people, 15 per cent said they preferred Mr Barnett and 6 per cent said it was because of Labor’s one-vote, one-value legislation”. The Liberals were favoured 53-47 on voting intention, although Alan Carpenter retains a lead of 47 per cent to 37 per cent as preferred premier. “Nearly eight out of 10” expressed support for major city projects being shelved to accommodate Royalties for Regions.

The West also reports Jim McGinty “has conceded Labor has probably lost the crucial seats of Wanneroo and Riverton”, where the Liberals say they lead by 280 and 62 votes. The Liberals believe themselves to be 28 votes behind in Albany, whereas Labor thinks the Liberals are one vote ahead. Unless recounts are called, the matter should be settled with tomorrow’s full distribution of preferences. Other seats which might yet hold surprises in store:

North West. Labor’s Vince Catania is the presumed winner of this seat having gained a 1.3 per cent swing, an outwardly remarkable result. However, hidden within this figure is one of the stories of the election: the Nationals polled 22.3 per cent after failing to contest the equivalent seats in 2005, gouging 10.1 per cent from the Liberal primary vote along with 7.2 per cent from Labor. This puts them in third place on 22.3 per cent behind 36.4 per cent for Labor and 27.0 per cent for Liberal. Preferences from independent Lex Fullarton (7.1 per cent), and to a lesser extent Greens candidate Peter Shaw (7.2 per cent, most of which will flow to Labor) might yet give them the 4.7 per cent boost they need to get ahead of the Liberals, in which case they would comfortably win the seat on Liberal preferences. The difference between the primary and notional two-party results suggest as many as 40 per cent of Nationals preferences were flowing to Labor (UPDATE: A Labor source writes to say it was more like a third, Labor’s other preferences coming from Fullarton; expects a significant proportion of Fullarton votes, including donkey votes, to go straight to Labor rather than helping the Nationals close their gap on the Liberals). However, it would have been a very different story in the Agricultural and South West region seats which the Nationals actually won, and to which their MPs will have to return after deciding which horse to back.

Kwinana. Independent candidate Carol Adams, who it must be said has reason to be displeased with the ALP, may have crowed too early when she expressed interest in the police and local government portfolios. As the count progressed her primary vote deficit against Labor increased from 15.4 per cent to 18.7 per cent, leaving her needing 77 per cent of preferences from the other candidates. Antony Green estimates she will receive 85 per cent, perhaps 90 per cent, of the 18.8 per cent Liberal vote. However, her share of other candidates’ votes (10.5 per cent Greens, 3.8 per cent Family First and 1.7 per cent for another independent) is likely to be in the high sixties. That makes it a very close call.

Alfred Cove. On Wednesday, The West Australian reported that Liberal candidate Chris Back was “closing” on independent member Janet Woollard, who led by just 20 votes. However, nothing has been heard since. Woollard trails Back 43.3 per cent to 25.3 per cent on the primary vote, and will need about 73 per cent of the preferences from Labor (20.3 per cent), the Greens (9.5 per cent) and the Christian Democratic Party (1.5 per cent).

In the upper house, the only certain result is the reliable North Metropolitan region, which has returned three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens member. The Liberals have also done very well to win three seats in the other two metropolitan regions, in which the Greens and the third Labor are fighting for the final seats. The Nationals have won two seats in Agricultural and are in what looks like a winning battle with Family First for a third, with the remainder going two Liberal and one Labor. South West also has the Nationals leading Family First in a contest for the final seat, the others going three Liberal and two Labor. The Nationals have also won one seat and possibly two in Mining and Pastoral, the second seat coming down to a fight with the Greens, while Labor and the Liberals have won two each.

Labor will thus win between 11 and 13 seats, and the Nationals three to six. Getting a Labor-Nationals Royalties for Regions deal through without the support of the Greens or Family First would require the best case scenario for both parties, which almost certainly won’t happen: the Greens are ahead in all three of their doubtful seats, to add to their certain win in North Metropolitan. The Liberals on the other hand will definitely have a majority of the 36 seats together with the Nationals, appearing almost certain to win 16 seats.

UPDATE: It’s confirmed that Labor is home in North West and Pilbara. The Sunday Times has a very interesting article on the Nationals’ deliberations, suggesting Warren Truss is desperately trying to talk Brendon Grylls out of a possible deal with Labor. Nationals MP Max Trenorden, an opponent of the Labor option, says he is “not going to say whether I am happy with the decision or not, but I’m certainly not going to commit suicide over it”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

212 comments on “Westpoll: Liberal favoured for Nationals alliance”

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  1. seesm libs promised nats 5 ministries, alp promised 6 !

    Note that according to Labor have earmarked those ministries as those with a rural and regional focus, such as Agriculture etc.

  6. Frank,

    edith cowan former channellor was hendy cowan and pro-vice channelcor or something was the fromer state lib president whatsher name.

    they would have helped secure the van onsolens im guessing

  9. edith cowan former channellor was hendy cowan and pro-vice channelcor or something was the fromer state lib president whatsher name.

    Hendy was the Chair of Access 31 Board, and we all know what happened there 🙂 And I think the Pro Vice was one Millicent Poole.

  11. Ainslie is indeed Mrs Peter.

    I’m waiting for little Bubby Van Onselen to offer some sort of advice favouring the conservatives from her High Chair at any moment now 🙂 I’m imagining her first words will ve “Mummy”, Daddy”, “Go Colin Barnett” 🙂

  13. Brendan Grylls is like a lost soul who needs guidance. He should be reading the news stories from The West Australian to make a decision not listening to Labor Party stooges. The West Australian is showing a more balanced view of who to form government with. Also, Colin Barnett contested two elections as leader, so he deserves it more. If he joins Labor, Grylls will be tied to a rope at the next National Party convention and he will be punched in the jaw by everyone their. Grylls better make the right decision tomorrow or he will pay big time.

  20. seems grylls is (or was) very set on a Labor alliance

    It seems so, and if they do revert to the Libs, Grylls either will be fighting with the libs every second day, or he will quit. It WILL be a very unstable partnership between a very modern and forward thinking National Leader and a bunch of old fossils like The Libs.

  22. Well, it has been obvious for most of the week that Brendon Grylls wants to work with Alan Carpenter. Not necessarily the Labor Party, but he and Alan seem to have a much stronger rapport than he and Colin, and just maybe Alan’s “above the fray” approach to ALP politics has saved his bacon. Reading between the lines of Max Trenorden’s remarks it seems like Grylls may have bent the party, rather than the other way around.

    Aside from that, I think Grylls also wants to see whether his idea of where the National Party should go in the future can actually work in practice – and contrary to the hysteria of the literati, maintaining the current government is the best method. The situation is ideal, because if things turn nasty for Labor at some point, the Nats can justifiably switch to the Liberals without seeming opportunistic (assuming the Libs can get a clear policy framework and stop squabbling) and at the same time assure disillusioned ALP votes in the Mining & Pastoral seats that they’re a viable option if there is another election.

    Labor just need to hold onto Albany and Forrestfield, because if Roger Cook gets up in Kwinana that’s 28 seats and a clear plurality.

  23. Peter Kennedy said Pilbara was settled, and I think we can believe him. I do keep an eye on Honest John, but I have no problem with people forcefully presenting a partisan viewpoint, and that’s all he’s doing at the moment as far as I’m concerned.

  24. They emerged from the meeting room at 5.30pm. Former WA Nationals leader Max Trenorden confirmed a decision had been reached by the MPs. As this newspaper went to print last night, the party’s state executive went into their own meeting at the hotel to discuss the MPs’ recommendation. Their decision, due today, will determine which way the Nationals go.

    Mr Trenorden said: “There were 12 different points of view in the meeting. (The decision) wasn’t unaninimous, but in the end we came to a decision by consensus.

    “It’s a historic result, whichever way it goes. I am not going to say whether I am happy with the decision or not, but I’m certainly not going to commit suicide over it.”

    That last sentence indicates that it looks like an Alliance with Labor, in particular the last line.

  25. I just CAN’T see the Nats allying with Labor, even though I’m generally a Labor supporter. Labor’s on the nose, as the election results show, and the Nats would lose their heartland supporters who hate Labor.

  27. Re 123: Suggesting someone be hanged and assaulted is okay here?

    Re 122 and 124: It looks like a Labor deal to me as well. That’s certainly my take on Grylls’ personal position. The body language from his meetings with Carps and Barnett suggested the same.

  29. If a government of whichever complexion formed with Nats support suffered a loss of confidence in the House because the Nats had subsequently withdrawn their support, would a new election be called?

  30. I’m thinking about a Labor-National alliance the same way I think of a Fremantle Dockers win when they’re five goals up at three quarter time. I’d like it, and it’s possible that it may happen, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

    (Is it any surprise that I used to vote for the Dockers of the political scene, the Democrats? 😛 )

  33. It’s Time, I have no doubt that the Governor would call on the leader of the other major party to try and form a Government first – if that failed (ie. the Nats opt for an early poll), then there would be a dissolution of the Legislative Assembly.

    I’m fairly certain that the Legislative Council terms are fixed to go from 22 May 2009 to 21 May 2013, and there can’t be an upper house election until at least June 2012.

  34. If the Nats were going with the Libs I don’t think there would be too much argument within the party. That argument would only take place if they were about to make a “courageous” decision, IMHO. Could be wrong.

  35. FWIW William, I am delighted with this harder line approach you’re taking with posters. Hopefully we will all clean up our act and concentrate on the issues at hand.

  36. Talkon

    After a hypothetical early election, would the resultant winner serve out the balance of the fixed term of the previous government or does the or does the clock reset for a new 4 year term? Would the Legislative Council also go to election or are their election times set independently of LA elections?

  37. “A courageous decision, minister.”

    “Yes…. oh my god, it it?”

    I love that scene. 🙂

    [ I’m fairly certain that the Legislative Council terms are fixed to go from 22 May 2009 to 21 May 2013, and there can’t be an upper house election until at least June 2012. ]

    How fixed is fixed? In WA we’re relatively placid, but federally terms’ve gotten unfixed (eg: 1984 election, only a year after the last one). If there’s a new election in, say, 2010, it might stuff up the next one.

  38. Oh, and I forgot to mention that the early election actually gives the Nats another cause to contemplate an alliance with Labor – the upper house.

    Although the new numbers will be dicey, if Wendy Duncan votes with Labor it gives them back the 16 seats they had in 2005…and although it has occurred, I can’t imagine a Greens-Shelley Archer-Liberal pact to defeat ALP-Nat legislation holding together with any certainty.

    Thus, if things do get rough by next May, the Nats would have yet another opt-out clause.

  39. Re 135: I’m posting here because I expect abusive stupid comments to be moderated. I expect sites like this are manipulated by political machines and abused by nutters. William, you can check IP addresses for abuse and keep people on track.

  44. Gods, but i hope Grylls does a deal with the ALP. There is a self indulgent, politics as a blood sport aspect to this hope. The look on Colin Barnets face would be good, the look on Julie Bishops pricless!

    But more than that, it would really set a as much of a new direction for poilitics in W.A. as we are likely to get for a long time. The Libs are a rabble who at the moment couldnt govern their way out of a soggy paper bag. If Barnet becomes premier, the knives will be out for him within weeks, and the Libs in W.A. have demostrated real form over the last few years of on undermining anyone in their top job seeminly just because its their nature as a party.

    The ALP needed and got a good kick up the backside this election, but are probably better able to govern at the moment. Not that that is much of a complement given the quality of the opposition over here! Greens and Nats as real alternatives for a change?? Would go down well with a lot of people over here.

    And wouldnt the Federal implictions of this be just SO MUCH FUN!!!!!!!

    So, the Nats have ONE chance to prove they are more than a poor copy of the Liberal party and that is now. Hope they take it.

  48. Colin Barnett has been behaving like presumptive Premier for a week, it’d be hilarious to see the look on his face if the Nats do go with the ALP.

  49. I doubt the Nationals would be able to cancel daylight saving this summer. They would love to, but the time frame to do it would be VERY limited. Both houses would have to ammend the legislation. I’m guessing that parliament wont resume till mid October, and daylight saving would start 2 weeks later, I can’t see how they could rush it through parliament that quickly. The initial bill took 4 weeks from the first reading to being signed by the governer, and we know how quickly that was rushed.

    The Nationals could cancel the referendum next year, but they would be stupid to do that, knowing if there is no referendum, then there could be easily be another trial in the next term of government again.

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