Photo finishes (lower house) – take two

NOTE: I’m reposting this in the hope the thread in the hope it might be used specifically for commenting on the results. More general discussion can be directed to the other threads.

EXPLANATORY NOTE: Assuming no late-count surprises (which do happen), Labor needs to win four out of these five to be in a position to form a majority if John Bowler and Carol Adams support them. Morley might be a wild card, as it is probable that absent, pre-poll and postal preferences are behaving differently to the booth votes.

PUBLISHED
LATEST
ALP LIB Total ALP LIB Total
Riverton 8002 8034 16036 9247 9297 18544
Wanneroo 7299 7293 14592 10044* 10170* 20214
Albany 8182 8065 16247 9169 9096 18265
Forrestfield 8177 7935 16112 9307 9192 18499
Collie-Preston 8299 7883 16182 9499* 9120* 18619
* Projected vote used as two-party count progress is significantly behind primary count

Tuesday 11pm. The West Australian provides “how the parties are tallying the votes” figures from both parties. Shtuwang’s figures are the Labor ones: the Liberals think themselves 99 rather than 73 behind in Albany, 112 rather than 115 behind in Forrestfield, 29 rather than 50 ahead in Riverton and 89 rather than 93 ahead in Wanneroo. Liberals only 20 votes behind in Alfred Cove.

Tuesday 6.30pm. More count updates from Shtuwang included in the table above (the ones without asterisks). The Liberal lead in Morley has narrowed from 523 to 396 since the close of count on Saturday.

Tuesday 5pm. Shtuwang in comments says Labor leads by 151 (8673 to 8522) in Forrestfield, although this doesn’t account for the 18,444 primary votes in the count.

Tuesday 4pm. The trend seems to be running to Labor in Riverton and to Liberal elsewhere, although progress is painfully slow. Labor has had a very bad batch of 285 votes in Forrestfield go 134 Liberal and 77 Labor on the primary vote – I have their lead at 186, but apparently it’s narrower than that. The addition of 246 votes in Riverton gives McRae 116 primary votes against 90 for Nahan. My preference calculation gives Labor a slight lead, but my sources tell me they are in fact 50 votes behind. Only 156 votes added in Albany, producing essentially no change. 277 votes in Wanneroo include 134 Liberal and 99 Labor: Liberal candidate Paul Miles all but claimed victory today. Labor leads by 379 in Collie-Preston. For some reason a lot of seats have reset their absent counts to zero and started again: where applicable I am using the older figures. I am told rechecking of ballot booth votes will not be conducted until the weekend, whereas it is normally the first order of business.

Tuesday 2am. The West Australian reports a “notional two-party preferred count (which the WAEC apparently isn’t providing us with) shows Labor 57 votes behind in Wanneroo, 111 ahead in Albany, 165 ahead in Forrestfield and literally dead level in Riverton.

Monday 11pm. I’ve changed my way of doing this, so the results have been knocked about a little. To clarify: the columns on the left show the notional two-party counts from the close of election night, which disappointingly will not be further updated by the WAEC. The columns on the right convert the latest figures using the preference ratios from the notional count, notwithstanding that these might not be entirely accurate. Changes in Riverton since election night: Labor down 0.11 per cent to 40.18 per cent; Liberal down 0.19 per cent to 41.53 per cent; Greens up 0.21 per cent to 10.24 per cent.

Monday 4.30pm. 807 new votes in Wanneroo break almost exactly evenly; 619 votes in Collie-Preston narrow the margin by about 35 votes.

1.30pm Monday. New primary votes added (table above not updated). In Riverton, 603 votes likely to split 312-291 to Labor. In Wanneroo, 837 votes to split about 460-413 to Liberal; in Albany, 337 votes to split 177-160 to Liberal; in Forrestfield, 391 votes to split 208-183 to Liberal.

3pm Sunday. This post will be used to follow developments in the late count. Labor can still form a minority government if it wins four out of the above five seats, remembering that in 2005 they generally did about 2 per cent worse on absent and postal votes than on booth votes. Going on the 2005 result we could expect each to seat to have about 400 postal and 2000 absent votes outstanding, although I hear there was an unusually high number of absent votes due to confusion over the new boundaries.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

602 comments on “Photo finishes (lower house) – take two”

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  1. By their words shall ye know them:

    214
    Adam in Canberra Says:
    August 6th, 2008 at 10:11 pm
    William says that “other things being equal the Liberals will win” WA elections, but in fact Labor has won five of the last seven, which suggests that all other things are not equal very often. My view of state elections is that Labor is now the default party: if the economy is reasonably healthy, there is no major scandal, and Labor has a more popular leader than the Libs do, Labor will win. The press is anti-Labor everywhere but it doesn’t seem to make much difference to election results.

  2. geex glen, ed, frank:

    you are all party hacks.

    it’s the nature of your bias. At least Frank admits it. And none of you are entirely right.

    http://i242.photobucket.com/albums/ff50/xebeche_tzu/internet.jpg

    calm down.

    Still too close to call, still up to the nats, still up to alp if they dump carps…

    still seemingly doomed to a very short term.

    As for upper house (the LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL…not SENATE). Yes right has a grip, big grip. But if nats join alp, then greens have the balance. So do-able…but perhaps not as do-able as the other way round.

    Yes it is far more likely nats join with lib.

    anyway end of the week we will know one way or another.

  3. Bias is OK, poor prediction is entirely a different matter.

    NOBODY, not even William has correctly predicted this Election, so stop making a goose of yourself by posting old posts when NOBODY knew the final outcome.

  4. I think some Libs on this site need to take a page out of Colin Barnetts book and be a bit more cautious.

    We are only just ahead in Riverton and unlikely to pick up enough ground in Albany to get over the line. In Riverton, all we are talking about is one pile of 50 votes having been accidently put in the wrong pile on election night… and looking at our only slight lead on Primary votes, it is very possible.

    I’m waiting for my winnings (at odds of 4.60) before I start gloating – because it may not happen yet.

  5. Finally! At long long last no more wall-to-wall Labor! Western Australians will be grateful for the amount of money their economy will get with Uranium mining! Small business owners will have high levels of growth under a Barnett Government. I can see the light at the end of the tunnel! Next on the hitlist is Mr Rudd in 2010!

  6. Come now Frank,

    They were your words weren’t they? The point of a prediction is exactly that NOBODY knows the final outcome for sure.

    It would appear William and Morley local were the closest however, and Mumble did call a Liberal win the night before.

  7. It seems that Barnett has all but given up an alliance with The Nationals 🙂

    COLIN Barnett has ruled out a bidding war with Labor to win crucial support from the Nationals, even if it means losing the chance to govern.

    The WA Opposition Leader told The Australian his commitment to integrity and honest government did not stop on election night and he would not put the party up for sale.

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24323491-948,00.html

  8. “Bias is OK, poor prediction is entirely a different matter.”

    You are just being silly now ESJ. You are surely aware why gambling winnings are not taxed in Australia in the way they are overseas and the reason for it.

    I will give you a tip: it is based on a high Court decision that nobody can accurately predict the future. Including your good self.

  9. Honest John 556:

    The trickle down from the mining boom is doing little for most workers and little for most small businesses. Uranium Mining won’t change that. Brendan Grylls is likely to make more of a difference getting money into the general community than Uranium Mining ever could. The result of a hung parliament with Independents and the Nats required to form government should not really have surprised any of us.
    All we are waiting for is the numbers to see if Liberal or Labor can form government with the Nats only, or whether Independents need to be cobbled in.

    Rightly the Nats are waiting on the LC result to pick who is going to be the junior partner in their new government 😉

    I wonder if Colin and Alan are talking Grand Coalition behind closed doors?

  10. Frank #558

    Either Barnett has given up or he knows he has an agreement in place.

    I suspect the former. Carpenter looked like a man who knew he had survived when interviewed by Kerry O’Brien the other night.

    As I wrote earlier AC & BG like each other, and Senator Joyce has been advocating to BG a NP rebranding via an independent stance.

    And maybe the Nats are worried the ALP might squeak home. It is perilously close.

  11. A grand coalition would be magnificent! Too bad most voters wouldn’t accept it and it’d collapse quite easily. That would make the Nationals the official opposiiton though wouldn’t it? I wonder how it would affect their vote?

  12. A Red-Black coalition. And not Libertarian Communists a bit more Zanu-PF with Noel and Brian running things: Der Unterstand coalition.

    (I shouldn’t stir)

  13. 556 Honest John,

    Results aren’t set in concrete yet. And we aren’t all happy about it. I’m a confirmed leftie, no ifs ands or buts about it, and I’ve got a move from Canberra to Perth in January. None too pleased about marching into right wing territory in so far as that goes ……. that is one reason I am following these election results closely 😉

  14. Either Barnett has given up or he knows he has an agreement in place.

    I suspect the former.

    I note on the ABC News the file footage of the post Grylls meetings – Carpenter was smiling and laughing, Barnett, nervous and uneasy about being seen with Grylls – the body language and Barnetts signals about rejecting John Bowlers wishlist an his general demeanur in the last few days indicates he just wishes he could walk away from it all.

    Barnett wanted a decisive victory, he didn’t go away, so he’s trying his hardest to fail, and retire from Parliament.

  15. Barnett wanted a decisive victory, he didn’t go away, so he’s trying his hardest to fail, and retire from Parliament.

    That shouild read – “it didn’t go his way”

  16. Carpenter went from being despondent on election night to being excited on Monday.

    Today he described the prospect of a coalition with the Nats as “exciting”. Not a word I would have chosen but that is what he said.

    Something has happened.

  17. Carpenter went from being despondent on election night to being excited on Monday.

    Today he described the prospect of a coalition with the Nats as “exciting”. Not a word I would have chosen but that is what he said.

    Something has happened.

    I agree, given the bad blood between the LIbs/Nats since the 2005 Election, and the desicion to go it alone, the Nats would look stupid to reform a Lib/Nat Coalition. I note Warren Truss was on Ch 7 News warning Grylls on joining forces with Labor – it seems the Dinosaurs of the Party want to return to the tried and true coalition, while the Young guns like Grylls/Joyce want to move forward.

    I predict the Federal Coalition will suffer is Grylls sides with Carpenter.

  18. First of all – what happend at Kwinana??? Antony predicted an easy labor win, but an independent won. How did that happen?

    Also, how does the house look like now? The ABC predicts 28 Labor, 28 Lib/Nat and 4 independents…

    Thanks!

  19. Frank #572

    A successful ALP/NAT coalition would potentially realign preference voting in WA. In addition it would provide a template for the Nats federally and cause a split with the Libs. A crash or crash through strategy.

    Such a concept would gain momentum if the merged LNP in Qld flopped at the next election. That will be the decisive event for the future of the Nats.

  20. What type of mentality does it take for a person to fossic through past threads and gather past posts just to show how someone’s predictions didn’t turn out to be correct? Predictions are just that and sometimes they are right and other times wrong. At least some of us come up with predictions.
    Better still, what type of mentality does it take to manufacture a post to suit the argument being waged against a targetted poster and even to go to the trouble of pretending to be them on occasion?
    This type of behaviour is not contributing one skerrick to debate and discussion and points to a troubled mind.

  21. Frank #558
    That story is out of today’s “Australian”. If you read the whole thing, you will see that Barnett is confident because the ALP faces damaging CCC inquiries and if the Nationals ally themsleves with Carpenter they could be badly burnt.

    I wouldn’t read anymore into it than that. Carpenter has to exude confidence, otherwise his party will move on him right now.

  22. That story is out of today’s “Australian”. If you read the whole thing, you will see that Barnett is confident because the ALP faces damaging CCC inquiries and if the Nationals ally themsleves with Carpenter they could be badly burnt.

    Barnett better not be too cocky about the CCC as there are also several liberals, including his possible Treasurer who might also have adverse findings against them 🙂

  23. Albany now 57 votes ahead

    ALP – Watson LIB – Partington

    9629 9572 Votes as at 5pm 10/9/08
    9169 9096 Votes as at 5pm 9/9/08
    8750 8630 Votes as at 5pm 8/9/08
    8182 8065 Votes as at 5pm 7/9/08

    Collie-Preston now 421 votes ahead

    ALP – Murray LIB – Thomas

    9909 9488 Votes as at 5pm 10/9/08
    9159 8824 Votes as at 5pm 9/9/08
    8672 8263 Votes as at 5pm 8/9/08
    8299 7883 Votes as at 5pm 7/9/08

    Forrestfield now 131 votes ahead

    ALP – Waddell LIB – Morton

    9581 9450 Votes as at 5pm 10/9/08
    9307 9192 Votes as at 5pm 9/9/08
    8673 8522 Votes as at 5pm 8/9/08
    8177 7935 Votes as at 5pm 7/9/08

    Kwinana * now 479 votes ahead

    ALP – Cook IND – Adams

    1960 1481 Votes as at 5pm 10/9/08
    1788 1362 Votes as at 5pm 9/9/08

    * Figures based on early & postal votes as of Mon 7/9/08 and do not include Saturday’s results – therefore not an accurate two party preferred count.

    Morley now 375 votes behind

    ALP – Whitby LIB – Britza

    9536 9911 Votes as at 5pm 10/9/08
    9180 9576 Votes as at 5pm 9/9/08
    8548 9049 Votes as at 5pm 8/9/08
    7804 8327 Votes as at 5pm 7/9/08

    Riverton now 68 votes behind

    ALP – McRae LIB – Nahan

    9534 9602 Votes as at 5pm 10/9/08
    9247 9297 Votes as at 5pm 9/9/08
    8176 8247 Votes as at 5pm 8/9/08
    8002 8034 Votes as at 5pm 7/9/08

    Wanneroo * now 248 votes behind

    ALP – Guise LIB – Miles

    10769 11014 Votes as at 5pm 10/9/08
    8896 8989 Votes as at 5pm 9/9/08
    8569 8646 Votes as at 5pm 8/9/08
    7299 7293 Votes as at 5pm 7/9/08

    * Please note WAEC updated Saturday’s Election figures on their website to include either additional booths or correct their figures for the Wanneroo electorate. Party Office has accordingly adjusted their figures to accurately calculate the voting trend to date.

  24. Speaking of the CCC of the few court cases resulting from investigations initiated by them, I’m pretty sure any charges laid have been thrown out, though I could stand corrected.

  25. Frank your not “old right” are you?

    I’m not in ANY faction, I’m just a supporter of the ideals of the Party.

    Accordingly, are you a Wet or Dry Liberal ? 🙂

  26. Frank I am a democracy loving independent. Some however cannot move past their prejudices:

    99
    Gary Bruce Says:
    August 7th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
    “I think this one will be very, very close” – L. What’s this based on other than a love for Barnett and his crew?

  27. Well, on the latest ALP figures above, so much for Reece Whitby roaring back in Morley! It could be that Kwinana is now the decisive factor!

    If we assume Collie-Preston is a definite lock, Forrestfield looks likely and Peter Watson will survive one more day of poor-trending postals in Albany, it puts the Labor total at 27.

    If Roger Cook somehow manages to overcome Carol Adams (and his buffer on the additional votes is growing all the time) then Labor will have 28 seats. Add John Bowler, and even if Colin does manage to cobble together his Grand Tory Coalition there’ll be a constant deadlock on the floor of the Assembly.

    Although I’m not as certain, I do share Frank’s point of view that Brendon Grylls is looking ever more like a man contemplating how best to explain to traditional National voters why he will team up with the ALP.

  28. I think that Brendon is a smart man… and therefore he would understand that if the ALP remains in government this time, then they are odds-on for a hiding next time.

    If the Nats are part of an ALP/Nat power share arrangement, then the Libs will be happily campaigning in the Nat seats saying a vote for the Nats is a vote to keep Labor. If the Nats don’t lose all their seats in this (2012 election), they would come close and would have little say on policy because it would be likely the Libs would pick up an additional swag of metropolitan seats.

    In contrast, if they side with the Libs, country people will get what they want (an end to Labor) and they will be able to brag about all the extra money they got for the regions… putting them in better chance of picking up North West, Pilbara and the Kimberley (seats they won’t pick up from Labor if they’re in a power sharing arrangement with them).

    Based on this, I am assuming the Nats will back the Libs for government.

  29. Frank @ 567,
    Nonsence. Barnett could not of expected, in his wildest dreams, a decisive victory. He would now be trying to work out the best way to sort out another election, possibly some time early next year once any relationship between the ALP and the Nats has broken down.
    My expectation at this point is that the Nats will give the ALP the confidence of the House, possibly in exchange for the Speaker’s chair and then be a complete pain in insisting on their program. This will hurt the ALP in Perth and the Nats in the country. It will then break down over some obscure point.
    The ALP will go for it to try to hold on to power to save face after the election drubbing and Carpenter personally as they know that no other Leader has any hope. The Nats may do it as Grylls has now backed himself into a corner in that he has to accept the deal if it is offered.
    I hope Colin will not do it as any deal would be madness. Wait 12 (or so) months, keep pushing the government and it should fall, and be very unpopular as well.

  30. Based on the way the seats are trending, the likely result is that Labor will fall short, leaving the Libs to make a govt with the nats and the lib indies.

    You guys thinking the Nats will side with Labor are seriously smoking dope… there is not a snowballs chance in hell.

    Leaving aside history (and the fact that there national colleagues all over the country would tear strips of them etc etc) there is simply no logic to siding with Labor. They would piss off their constituents, piss off their long term ally, and for what…. anything Labor can put on the table the Libs can too… so there is just no reason they would do it.

    sorry to burst the bubble for Labor supporters, but if Labor does not get enough seats to govern on its own they wont be governing

  31. Without Riverton the ALP bubble is burst. The thing is I understand the speaker has the casting vote therefore even 30 -29 will do it for the Libs/Nats

  32. as i mentioned in a previous post somewhere (seems like years ago now, rofl) the nats have *already* done the deal with the libs… time we accepted that reality 🙂

  33. as i mentioned in a previous post somewhere (seems like years ago now, rofl) the nats have *already* done the deal with the libs… time we accepted that reality 🙂

    I think you’ll all be in for a big surprise 🙂

    Brendan isn’t you’re average “bend over a think of England” type of Nat who normally deals with The Libs :-). Also, Brendan has CONSTANTLY said he doesn’t want to be part of any Party Room, and has already rejected BArnett’s Deputy Premier role.

    A Lib/Nats “Coalition” will NOT be happening this time around 🙂

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