NOTE: I’m reposting this in the hope the thread in the hope it might be used specifically for commenting on the results. More general discussion can be directed to the other threads.
EXPLANATORY NOTE: Assuming no late-count surprises (which do happen), Labor needs to win four out of these five to be in a position to form a majority if John Bowler and Carol Adams support them. Morley might be a wild card, as it is probable that absent, pre-poll and postal preferences are behaving differently to the booth votes.
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| ALP | LIB | Total | ALP | LIB | Total | ||
| Riverton | 8002 | 8034 | 16036 | 9247 | 9297 | 18544 | |
| Wanneroo | 7299 | 7293 | 14592 | 10044* | 10170* | 20214 | |
| Albany | 8182 | 8065 | 16247 | 9169 | 9096 | 18265 | |
| Forrestfield | 8177 | 7935 | 16112 | 9307 | 9192 | 18499 | |
| Collie-Preston | 8299 | 7883 | 16182 | 9499* | 9120* | 18619 | |
| * Projected vote used as two-party count progress is significantly behind primary count | |||||||
Tuesday 11pm. The West Australian provides “how the parties are tallying the votes” figures from both parties. Shtuwang’s figures are the Labor ones: the Liberals think themselves 99 rather than 73 behind in Albany, 112 rather than 115 behind in Forrestfield, 29 rather than 50 ahead in Riverton and 89 rather than 93 ahead in Wanneroo. Liberals only 20 votes behind in Alfred Cove.
Tuesday 6.30pm. More count updates from Shtuwang included in the table above (the ones without asterisks). The Liberal lead in Morley has narrowed from 523 to 396 since the close of count on Saturday.
Tuesday 5pm. Shtuwang in comments says Labor leads by 151 (8673 to 8522) in Forrestfield, although this doesn’t account for the 18,444 primary votes in the count.
Tuesday 4pm. The trend seems to be running to Labor in Riverton and to Liberal elsewhere, although progress is painfully slow. Labor has had a very bad batch of 285 votes in Forrestfield go 134 Liberal and 77 Labor on the primary vote – I have their lead at 186, but apparently it’s narrower than that. The addition of 246 votes in Riverton gives McRae 116 primary votes against 90 for Nahan. My preference calculation gives Labor a slight lead, but my sources tell me they are in fact 50 votes behind. Only 156 votes added in Albany, producing essentially no change. 277 votes in Wanneroo include 134 Liberal and 99 Labor: Liberal candidate Paul Miles all but claimed victory today. Labor leads by 379 in Collie-Preston. For some reason a lot of seats have reset their absent counts to zero and started again: where applicable I am using the older figures. I am told rechecking of ballot booth votes will not be conducted until the weekend, whereas it is normally the first order of business.
Tuesday 2am. The West Australian reports a “notional two-party preferred count (which the WAEC apparently isn’t providing us with) shows Labor 57 votes behind in Wanneroo, 111 ahead in Albany, 165 ahead in Forrestfield and literally dead level in Riverton.
Monday 11pm. I’ve changed my way of doing this, so the results have been knocked about a little. To clarify: the columns on the left show the notional two-party counts from the close of election night, which disappointingly will not be further updated by the WAEC. The columns on the right convert the latest figures using the preference ratios from the notional count, notwithstanding that these might not be entirely accurate. Changes in Riverton since election night: Labor down 0.11 per cent to 40.18 per cent; Liberal down 0.19 per cent to 41.53 per cent; Greens up 0.21 per cent to 10.24 per cent.
Monday 4.30pm. 807 new votes in Wanneroo break almost exactly evenly; 619 votes in Collie-Preston narrow the margin by about 35 votes.
1.30pm Monday. New primary votes added (table above not updated). In Riverton, 603 votes likely to split 312-291 to Labor. In Wanneroo, 837 votes to split about 460-413 to Liberal; in Albany, 337 votes to split 177-160 to Liberal; in Forrestfield, 391 votes to split 208-183 to Liberal.
3pm Sunday. This post will be used to follow developments in the late count. Labor can still form a minority government if it wins four out of the above five seats, remembering that in 2005 they generally did about 2 per cent worse on absent and postal votes than on booth votes. Going on the 2005 result we could expect each to seat to have about 400 postal and 2000 absent votes outstanding, although I hear there was an unusually high number of absent votes due to confusion over the new boundaries.
Otis, you do realise the Greens are a separate politcial party from the ALP don’t you?
Since when did it become the Greens responsibility to get ALP candidates over the line in seats where their candidate is unpopular for various reasons?
The Greens met their obligations to the ALP under their preference arrangement and then did a great deal more over and above that which was agreed.
If the ALP lose seats due to hubris, that is the fault of the ALP.
Further Otis, if the ALP do sneak over the line in Morley it will be thanks to Greens preferences. I note you are not giving the Greens any bouquets for that gift.
#502 Luke…….So tell me how is Carol Adams more palatable to the Greens and their platform/policies than Cook? Sounds more like a spoiler manoeuvre to me….out of pure mischief/spite rather than ideological grounds?
Why does the abc site have the Kwinana seat going away from Labor on two party preferred when there is no TTP count occurring yet ?
bogart 504 It’s the genius of Antony. see comment 487 and others above.
Luke, if the ALP lose a seat due to the Greens preferencing retro-gressive candidates ahead of the progressive left ALP candidate, that is the fault of the Greens. Nuthin to do with hubris darling.
Just the Greens throwing their weight around because they’re unable to win a lower house seat in their own right.
I’ll retract that comment the day they manage it.
Bogart, required.
Your assumption is that the voters are voting Greens because they want to vote left of centre. I don’t think this is valid. Many people vote green because they don’t like Labor and don’t want to vote Liberal due to war/uranium/other.
It is much like uni elections. Are people voting for friends/friends of friends or making a considered choice based on policy!
Luke, I agree with you. The Green Party is perfectly entitled to treat the Labor party,the party politically closest to it, any way it wishes. Just as the Nats are now able to deal with the Liberals, those politically closest to them, in any way they wish.
The problem is,unless there is consistency in the respective parties behavior towards there natural allies, they can’t expect any favours in return.
For the Greens to get anything of their policies into legislation the implimentation of those policies needs to be driven by Labor. If they forget that, they will become irrelevant as a positive force and in time will wither, as they will not be able to provide to their supporters what their supporters desperately want.
#507 Fulvio Sammut…. “The problem is,unless there is consistency in the respective parties behavior towards there natural allies, they can’t expect any favours in return.”
Thats my point….why preference to the ALP in the overwhelming majority of other seats across the state, whereas in seats where you have a “personal” grudge or an axe to grind with the candidate you dont? Inconsistent positions like this expose the Greens for what they really are…. Politically inept!
Mr Orange, Kwinana was a safe ALP seat. No-one asked for preferences in that seat so you didn’t get em. You misjudged the electorate when you parachuted Roger Cook in and are now paying the price. That is not the fault of the Greens that is the fault of the ALP.
I think the politically inept ones are those that managed to get a 17.3% swing against them on primary votes which translated into a 20.5% swing on preferences.
Again, where are the bouquets for the gift of Morley.
and just on this whole greens / labor issue…. the truth is that Labor is going to get comfortably LESS than 50 percent of the two party vote. So if they lose, it wont be the greens fault it will be the right result. If they win, that will be a lucky result, because on a two party basis, a majority wanted the other guys
rumour has it whitby is within 100 votes now.
#509 Luke…..Polleese. When have the Greens ever taken (or had to take) responsiblity for any of their positions, political or otherwise?!?! Life must be so much fun never having to live up to any of your commitments. LOL
When you finally come down from the moral high ground (its obvious that the oxygen is a bit light-on up there) maybe have a think about whether its the Libs or the ALP you would rather see in govt, because comrade it aint ever going to be the Greens.
‘No one asked for preferences in that seat’ so the greens preferenced the police union’s lawyer because she’s obviously the most progressive candidate.
Why not NOT direct preferences at all if ‘no one asked’.
Oh Luke if it’ll shut you up, I humbly give thanks for Morley – if indeed it ends up not being held by the author of ‘The Absalom Spirit: Revealing Disloyalty’s Plan to Destroy You and Those You Trust’. (I kid you not).
http://www.amazon.com/Absalom-Spirit-Revealing-Disloyaltys-Destroy/dp/1577944607
” Product Description
In The Absalom Spirit, famed Aussie Pastor Ian Britza takes a look at the damaging effects of dissention in a leadership team through the story of King David’s betrayal by his son, Absalom. He understands that an act of betrayal in ministry can deliver a devastating blow—but it can be survived. Whether readers are currently experiencing the heartbreak of disloyalty or have never experienced it, this book will take them to a deeper level in understanding how God wants leadership teams to function for the success of His kingdom. ”
More religious nutters & cop defenders, that’s what we need governing WA.
#513 required – settle down will you. There’s no need to be offensive now to so called ‘religious nutters’ and ‘cop defenders’. What’s wrong with people believing what they want anyway? It might not be everyone’s cup of tea but there’s no need to go insulting the man on the basis of his strong religious beliefs.
#514 DoP……..maybe you should read the man’s book before you dismiss required’s concerns. I read the review and it scared the s**t out of me!
rumour has it macrae is within 20 votes.
Just to clarify, the Greens preferenced Whitby at #2 in Morley. If Britza gets in, it is not down to us.
You might want to talk to D’Orazio about that result.
Also, the Police are workers too and are entitled to industrial representation like every other worker in WA.
Wasn’t Quiggers a “police defender” too? OMG the Greens gave him preferences too. Whatever were we thinking?
Yes, I’ve read the review. What’s the problem? I’m not particularly into all these Baptist celebration type things, but it’s hardly a bad thing, is it? Clearly he’s quite a strong believer. That doesn’t prevent him from being a competent member of parliament.
Ed Eagle – where are you getting your information from? How accurate is it?
Anthony at # 491
Could I ask a clarifying question?
When you say the WAEC doesn’t do preferences counts after polling day, does this mean:
they don’t count them and any preference vote made on a vote doesnt’ get counted until after polling day is wasted?
or
they count the preference votes and don’t update anybody until its all over?
thanks in advance
Shtuwang…he seems to know what’s going on.
I believe Ed is making things up.
Geez, he’d be an orphan on this thread!
From The West.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=97167
Looks like the West has tapped into my source….dammit.
How’s Alfred Cove going? Any change in the 20 vote margin?
Mr Squiggle @ 520, without wanting to speak for the great psephic one,the process is:
1. On the night of the election, the WAEC workers count every first preference vote in a booth and submit the totals to the WAEC. Not all votes are counted because there are special insitutions, absentee and postal votes.
2. After having counted these votes, they then allocate the preferences of all candidates bar 2 candidates and add the final preferences to these 2 candidates. These 2 were pre-chosen as the 2 candidates expected to be left in the count at the end of all the counting. NB Sometimes the WAEC, like all ECs is incorrect in this choice.
3. These NOTIONAL 2PP figures are sent to the WAEC who publishes them on the night.
AFTER election night, WAEC continues to do step 1 until all votes are counted. They now count all the votes at the specials, the absentees and the postals.
What they do not do and which is causing the panic, is publish a running 2PP figure. This figure is only ever notional.
When counted a FULL and PROPER preference distribution is done.
SO ALL firstl votes are counted.
ALL preferences are counted out to get to a 2PP split and a winner of more than 50%.
If those Albany figures are to be believed, Peter Watson’s lead has actually increased slightly during today’s count.
I wonder what’s happened with Forrestfield to make The West skip mentioning it? Waddell going further ahead, perhaps?
Michael,
Correct. The important thing is that it is right. With so many close seats and a knife-edge result it is important that only correct information is fed into the public arena – which means it needs to be checked and re-checked before publication. They would be working on the principle that slow, correct info is much better than quick, but wrong, information.
Have patience and trust in the WAEC. Besides, the longer it takes the more fun we can have arguing over it.
Of course, that’s the last thing The West wants is a relected ALP Government. If Brendan Grylls does form an alliance with the ALP, all hell will break loose as the West will try it’s hardest to make the alliance fail.
No 474
Don’t worry, the Calabrians Tripodi and Iemma already did that job in NSW.
All I can say is people in Swan Hills, especially in Ellenbrook who voted Liberal will be VERY angry at Brendan Grylls.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/10/2361184.htm
Grylls wouldn’t give a stuff about some people in Ellenbrook, and why would it matter if they voted Liberal or Labor, both promised the same thing.
My info on Forrestfield is that Labor is steady and there isnt too many votes left.
Actually, people in Ellenbrook who voted Labour will be equally or more angry.
But their anger against the Nats will be as nothing compared to their anger against the major party that defers or cancels their railway in order to get into bed with Brendon. And that’s the problem for either the ALP or the Libs in dolng a deal with Brendon. In fact it may be bigger problem for the Libs; Lib voters expect a Lib leader to command the support of the Nats without throwing them more than a few bones, and will be all the more shocked and angry when this turns out no longer to be the case.
Realistically, the only party capable of forming a government in WA without Nat support (in future years) is the ALP, and voters who don;t want a government dependent on the Nats may be that bit more reluctant to vote Liberal.
No 532
Frank, don’t be so ridiculous. The ALP and the Liberal party have evinced intentions to support the Royalties for Regions scheme.
No 535
The people should have voted more decisively if they didn’t want either major party to rely on independents and the Nats to form minority government.
Labor probably won’t get hit that bad if they didn’t build the trainline… mean shit, how many times did Labor promise the Fiona Stanley hospital? 2 elections? Just because Labor promised it doesn’t mean they have to build it.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=97167
Key seats slipping from Labor
10th September 2008, 16:00 WST
“Labor’s battle for the key seat of Wanneroo is all but lost, with Liberal candidate Paul Miles stretching his lead over Labor’s Di Guise to 240 votes in counting today.
And the Liberals grip on the seat of Riverton, also regarded as critical to the outcome of Saturday’s knife edge election, has continued, with candidate Mike Nahan holding a slender 42 vote lead over Tony McRae.
Labor’s Peter Watson’s lead in Albany has slimmed to 89, with 2000 postal votes yet to be counted.
Wanneroo, Riverton and Albany are critical to Labor’s hopes of forming government without the help of the Nationals, on the proviso that it has the support of independents John Bowler and Carol Adams.”
It’s lookin good for Colin right about now!
Glen,
I already posted that link – and don’t count those chickens JUST yet, you may find Brendan might just go with Carpenter 🙂
# 527 Michael Proud
thansk for the run down
OK, so when should I check back in to get the real figures?
I know, but i just like reminding people of how Labor is doomed!
Also Back could win Alfred Cove to boot.
[I know, but i just like reminding people of how Labor is doomed!
Also Back could win Alfred Cove to boot.]
Have you any 2PP figures that suggest Chris Back could win? I haven’t seen any today. Would be a great result, despite not effecting the outcome of government.
Those words WILL come back to haunt you 🙂
V.true Frank 544
204
Adam in Canberra Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 10:00 am
Anything’s possible in today’s Liberal Party. Their current federal leader was a card-carrying ALP member in 1992.
On the ALP losing somewhere eventually: By my count Labor has now won 21 state and territory elections in a row since 1997. Tomorrow the NT will make it 22. WA on 6 Sept would make it 23 (though I’m not counting that chicken until it hatches). Labor has now become the “default party” at state/territory elections. Unless there is a major scandal or economic collapse, Labor will win. Even the Iemma government, despite all its baggage, would start favourite in my book.
To all those ALP types who still wishes the Nat will support the ALP
Let me put it this way.
If the Nat was the Royalties for Regions 750 mill
Can the ALP deliver it?
Current ABC says the senate will be
ALP 11
Lib 15
Nat 4
Green 5
FF 1
ALP + Nat = 15 out of 36
Where is the other 4 votes needed to get to 19?
Facts are since the ALP did so poorly in Primary vote, they are in no position to buy National’s vote
Unless you think the Green will support giving money to the country
Or Frank how about these words below, I thought you were our WA expert? “virtually assured trouncing”? You drank the koolaid!
236
Frank Calabrese Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
The “Bedwetter” (Skink’s Term) on Colin Barnett.
[n February 2005, Colin Barnett asked the people of Western Australia if we would let him run the state. We thought about it and said, “Nope”.
Three and a half years later, there is an overwhelming sense of deja vu as Mr Barnett prepares for a second crack at the top job.
He wants us to believe there is nothing he wants more than to be premier. At least, that’s his feeling this week. Last week he wanted to be retired.
But then on Monday the scandal-tainted Troy Buswell finally sniffed the electoral wind and stepped down from the Liberal leadership. With a poor show of hands for the vacant spot, Mr Barnett shelved plans to tend to his rose bushes and stepped into the breach.
You’ve got to hand it to him – he’ll still get to head off into retirement after a virtually assured election trouncing, but at least now he’ll do it in style!]
http://blogs.watoday.com.au/outsidethesquare/2008/08/barnett_braces.html
Eddie,
Note the comments are from a Newspaper Blog, not mine.
Keep trying old boy 🙂
Do you want me to reprint some of your pontifications Frank? I’d say the post was a fair summation of your views or you wouldnt have pasted it in.
Here’s an authentic Frank special
90
Frank Calabrese Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 9:24 pm
[“Labor strategists have put a plan to the Premier” for an election on September 13 or September 20, thereby preventing the resumption of parliament in two weeks.]
And also just before School holidays and the Royal Show as well, and no doubt designed to prevent the Libs blooding a new leader and leaving Buswell as a sacrificial lamb.
Expect the opposition to meet in a broom cupboard.