Photo finishes (lower house)

ALP LIB Total
Riverton 8002 8034 16036
Wanneroo 7299 7293 14592
Albany 8182 8065 16247
Forrestfield 8177 7935 16112
Collie-Preston 8299 7883 16182

3pm Sunday. This post will be used to follow developments in the late count. Labor can still form a minority government if it wins four out of the above five seats, remembering that in 2005 they generally did about 2 per cent worse on absent and postal votes than on booth votes. Going on the 2005 result we could expect each to seat to have about 400 postal and 2000 absent votes outstanding, although I hear there was an unusually high number of absent votes due to confusion over the new boundaries.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

356 comments on “Photo finishes (lower house)”

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  1. That doesnโ€™t account for the sheer volume Frank.

    Several Greens booths ran out of HTVs on polling day very early on – more people than ever were taking them.

    Upper Swan Primary School had the problem of one of their booth workers going home and the table being unattended for a while – I had to guard the table for a bit until her replacement arrived, and then Jenni Bowman arrived and she couldn’t hand them out while the worker changed into her T shirt, so our Booth Captain obliged.

  2. what do u recon of the nats trying to make one of there conditions repealing the one vot one value law espacially since they will conrtol both houses

  3. that would not have had much of an impact upper swan is the best liberal booth with most people from the vines voting there

  4. I wonder if Greens voters realised what they were doing in Fremantle? Now that they’ve come close to winning a seat, it’s definitely going to change the game for them… the Greens will become less of a protest vote option, and more of a genuine option of winning seats. I wonder how they’ll play it from here on in.

  5. that would not have had much of an impact upper swan is the best liberal booth with most people from the vines voting there

    That booth has always been a Liberal Booth, as was Henley Brook Hall, but we gave that to Lisa to deal with ๐Ÿ™‚

  6. No 303

    They won’t get that in my view. It’s totally out of line with other states and it is unrepresentative. The Nats really want the money at the end of the day.

  7. that would not have had much of an impact upper swan is the best liberal booth with most people from the vines voting there

    Actually it’s people from Baskerville, and Brigadoon as well, plus a couple from Middle Swan- I should know, they live around the corner from me.

    I was told, Jaye was popular in the Vally was because all the Slavs and Croats voted for her. ๐Ÿ™‚ She had roots in the area.

  8. Amd speaking of Ethnics – John D’Orazio’s low Primary vote has dispelled the myth that he was “Widely popular” in the Electorate.

  9. Bird of paradox@307

    One of the constant battles for the Greens is the whole “wasted vote” line from people that don’t understand preferential voting – probably the biggest, most attractive block of voters for us (which is why the Greens election material had the explaination of preferences on it). That myth vaporises when the Greens win a LH seat or two, and potentially the floodgates open…

  10. yer jaye probaly was but her not being the incumbent has inpacted big just look at bullsbrook

    Yeah, Jaye should’ve taken Carps advice and recontested Swan Hill, but she wanted a safer seat, but to her credit she did endorse Giffard via the Flyer and authorised a flyer on Trailbikes, but on Election day was campaigning for Michelle Roberts.

  11. No 312

    Given that Greens preferences almost always flow in favour of Labor, I fail to see the point in voting for them. Electors may as well vote Labor and be done with it. It can’t possibly be a protest vote if the vote still ends up in the ALP ledger.

  12. This election is particularly volatile as nearly all the gained seats for each side have come from atypical preferencing. All things being equal an election between a competent opposition and government would not normally throw up results that looked like this. While it is certainly true the liberal party has done much better that anticipated, lets also note that a large number of those seats came off the back of atypical minor party preferencing including greens. In a “normal” election one would not expect the preferences from the greens to flow as readily to the libs, nor would one expect gifts like Morley which is patently not a holdable liberal seat. The call for another election asap by the libs would certainly favour labor. We would immediately win back Morley and with Kucera reclaim Mt Lawley. Kwinana would become labor held as we reendorse Carol Adams. Wanneroo would likey fall back to us as well assuming that the early election protest vote is targetted now at both parties not just labor. That would give us 32 seats including Comrade Bowlers in Kal before looking at winning back any of the other liberal gains. Bring it on!!.

  13. Given that Greens preferences almost always flow in favour of Labor, I fail to see the point in voting for them. Electors may as well vote Labor and be done with it. It canโ€™t possibly be a protest vote if the vote still ends up in the ALP ledger.

    So I’m assuming that also applies for the Nationals prefrencing Liberal then ?

  14. Kwinana would become labor held as we reendorse Carol Adams.

    Watch this space re Adams – As I hear talks between Michelle Roberts and Mike Dean from the Police Union took place last night and since Adams is a lawyer for the above union, there may possibly be some co-operation for her support for Labor. ๐Ÿ™‚

  15. GP, the idea for the Greens is to build the vote and win some LH seats.

    It’s not a protest vote any longer when it becomes a realistic alternative, as was (almost!!) the case in Freo, and has been in Tassie and elsewhere for some time.

    When voters see that it is possible to elect a Green candidate, I’m optimistic that more will naturally follow. Until then, yes, you’re right, there’s always an element that will view it as nothing more than a protest vote.

    But people wouldn’t protest if they didn’t yearn for something different.

  16. Itโ€™s not a protest vote any longer when it becomes a realistic alternative, as was (almost!!) the case in Freo, and has been in Tassie and elsewhere for some time.

    And let us not forget Cunningham as well.

  17. yer that may be but i would not suggest that she would welcome being rendorced thats a bit rich you did not want her twice but now that she won as an inderpendant thats fine what a joke labor should learn liek the liberal party has once a inderpendant get in its hard to beat just look at woolard constable and even walker got really close when she has done no work if she had we would have lost ill say that bowler will suport labor on one condition that carps go thats what i recon

  18. if britza work really god damn hard and got a high name reconition he might just keep it mabye when it was ballajura it was held by the libs but its still unlikey next time but if labor parachutes someone in or puts a unoin hack in then i would say that it may stay lib

  19. 319 paris: Post of the thread. ๐Ÿ˜‰

    The Greens have been my protest vote of choice ever since the Democrats imploded. It’s true that I usually vote ALP above the Liberals, but that’s because I have to number them somewhere. If the ALP ran a dud candidate and the Libs a good one, and if the Libs weren’t being too objectionable at the time, I’d have no problem voting Green-Lib-ALP. And I’d love to see a Greens MP for my district, even though I know it’s unlikely… if I didn’t, I wouldn’t be voting for them.

    And as for Adele Carles… it would’ve been bizarre, but then she would probably have made a better local MP for Freo than McGinty has been lately. That’s the kind of thing that would really make people take notice of the Greens. If they win Freo, the Herald would probably get behind them, and then they become the second party in neighbouring seats like Cottesloe and Cockburn.

  20. if britza work really god damn hard and got a high name reconition he might just keep it mabye when it was ballajura it was held by the libs but its still unlikey next time but if labor parachutes someone in or puts a unoin hack in then i would say that it may stay lib

    Actually quite a bit of the old Ballajura seat got redistributed to West Swan, which may account for the low D’Orazio vote.

    See the old boundary map here and you’ll see what I mean.

    http://www.boundarieswa.com/2003/Boundaries/–East-Metropolitan/Ballajura/

  21. No 319

    I personally find all Greens policies objectionable, as does most of the electorate. I’d rather them stay out of the parliament as long as possible! ๐Ÿ˜›

  22. i doubt cottesloe very much as the green vote has been at the same level there as it has been for a while and if they had any chance of winning there the informed doctors wife that vote for them in cotteslow will stop voting for them beacuse deep down they are liberal they only vote green out of guilt

  23. Greens can not hav it both ways and won’t
    Greens gave ‘open prefs’ in NT allowing Green prefs to go to PRO Uranium dump CLP Party

    Greens gave ‘open pref’ in WA allowing Greens prefs to go to PRO Uranium mining Liberal Party

    So obviously uranium mining and uranium dumps ar not a priority to Greens any longer , so lets not hear any of this anti uranium hypocracy here

    Whereas Labor Party NT opposed uranium dumps and Labor Party WA opposed uranium mining Time for reel Greens voters to dump th Greens Party in NT and WA …IF uranium is reely an issue to them

  24. somthing quite interesting is that the greens got so close to out polling labor in cottesloe the labour vote colapsed by 7.8 percent greens hardly changed greens missed out by 0.1

  25. No 331

    The Greens’ opposition to uranium mining and nuclear power is utterly stupid anyway. Nuclear electricity can jump start the move toward a low-emission economy whilst renewable technologies mature. Moreover, given the zillions of square kilometres of desert we have in Australia, there is plenty of room to store waste safely.

  26. I’m amazed the Greens got 12% in an outer suburban seat like Nollamara (triple last time). That was the safest ALP seat, and note what happened to the second-safest – Kwinana’s another protest vote gone large.

    As for Cottesloe: I’m not suggesting they’ll win it any time soon, but if they do win Freo, they could overtake the ALP in that seat. Never underestimate the power of the Fremantle Herald, and Freo locals. ๐Ÿ˜‰

  27. As for Cottesloe: Iโ€™m not suggesting theyโ€™ll win it any time soon, but if they do win Freo, they could overtake the ALP in that seat. Never underestimate the power of the Fremantle Herald, and Freo locals. ๐Ÿ˜‰

    And events like the Fremantle Festival. I think another reason why Carpenter went early was to avoid School Holidays and the Royal Show, which would’ve pissed more people off.

  28. Generic Person

    but thats not th point , Greens hav sold out there core , there supporters swhould dump them as per my #331 & vote NT and WA Labor who do oppose uranium dumps & uranium mining , because clearly Greens Party do not think its important

    There trashing of there core policy would be equivalent to liberal Party being anti business (which it would NEVER do as its a core value) , its there hypocracy not there pref tactics I challenge

  29. i think the greens could have won freo if the liberals had not manned booths or even put a real bad canditate like they did in kwinana an 18 yr old student

  30. if labor dont form government mcginty will call it quits mabye libs sould not run a candidate that would be very intresting

  31. As I suggested earlier , clearly voters ar not happy enough with either Party to give them a strong first pref overal % , so messages ar there both ways

    Nite all

  32. an intresting result is central wheatbelt bredon grylls had a 5.4 percent swing against him if that does not say somthing about going with labor i dont no what will and i no for a fact the librals spent nothing liek they did last time to win it somthing in the hundered thousand figure was spent and they ran a high profile candidate hardly made a dent 1.6 in merredin and then to compare with other nats you have grant woodhams who had a 6% swing in a seat which the liberals have had since it they were founded

  33. Ehh, Grylls still has a enormous margin: 20.6%. The ‘swing’ is probably due to the result being Nat/ALP on the redistributed figures, and Nat/Lib after the actual election… note on the ABC site, how Grylls has a 5.4% swing against him, but the Lib has a ‘swing’ of 29.4%, up from nothing. It’ll be just a different flow of preferences caused by a different candidate running second, that’s all.

    Speaking of which, I notice the ABC gives Terry Waldron a margin of 35.4% vs ALP. Rather odd… the other country seats are done as Nat/Lib. The margin will still be enormous either way.

  34. Peter Van O was on News Radio this morning saying the ALP needs to win 3 out of the 5 doubtful seats and can form a minority govt with two ALP leaning independents. A scenario that he believed was a reasonable chance.

    He also said the Libs weren’t confident of getting the same 52/48 benefit from postal and absentee votes, and that they may well break Labor’s way.

    Either way, an ALP minority or a Lib minority, makes it hard to govern. Just ask Nick Greiner, although I think Bracks did OK with it in his first term.

    Just as aside. Joe Hockey was on Meet the Press yesterday, and was making it up as he was going along. He claimed the Coalition had a swing to it at the last Federal election in WA. Not so, Joe.

    In 2004 the ALP achieved 44.6% TPP, and in 2007 it achieved 46.7%. A swing away from the Coalition of 2.1%. Tsk, tsk, tsk, Joe!

  35. William,

    Any chance you could clarify your “Labor needs four out of five doubtfuls” versus Van Olsen’s “three out of five”?

    Van Olsen was counting two Labor-leaning independents (Kwinana, Kalgoorlie) plus 25 Labor definites, leaving them three short.

    25 Labor definites are below but maybe you have one of these out?

    Armadale
    Balcatta
    Bassendean
    Belmont
    Cannington
    Cockburn
    Fremantle
    Girrawheen
    Gosnells
    Joondalup
    Kimberley
    Mandurah
    Maylands
    Midland
    Mindarie
    Morley
    Nollamara
    North West
    Perth
    Pilbara
    Rockingham
    Victoria Park
    Warnbro
    West Swan
    Willagee

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