Photo finishes (lower house)

Riverton 8002 8034 16036
Wanneroo 7299 7293 14592
Albany 8182 8065 16247
Forrestfield 8177 7935 16112
Collie-Preston 8299 7883 16182

3pm Sunday. This post will be used to follow developments in the late count. Labor can still form a minority government if it wins four out of the above five seats, remembering that in 2005 they generally did about 2 per cent worse on absent and postal votes than on booth votes. Going on the 2005 result we could expect each to seat to have about 400 postal and 2000 absent votes outstanding, although I hear there was an unusually high number of absent votes due to confusion over the new boundaries.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

356 comments on “Photo finishes (lower house)”

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  1. One thing that had not been mentioned

    Had the one vote one value hurt the Labor in this election, some of their members lost large chunks of their constituency or left the marginals to new candidates

    Making it impossible for them to have incumbancy. That seem to have backfire on the ALP

    However I think the 2PP is about 52-48 Lib, so they would have been wiped out under the old boundries

  2. If the 2 percent worse on absent and postal votes holds true, then I can only see the ALP at best picking up 3 (Albany, Forrestfield and Collie-Preston). You would have to think that the Liberals will overcome the deficits in Riverton and Waneroo.

  3. If Riverton and Wanneroo go to the Libs, and Labor win Albany, Forrestfield and Collie-Preston, then Labor would have 27 seats, with 2 Labor Independents? Which would obviously be 1 short of a majority. I think this is what is likely to happen, with the right leaning members having a 1 seat majority. Wont be easy to push legislation through.

    When is the earliest Parliament can be recalled? They have to wait till the WAEC declares all the results is that correct? Which would obviously be several weeks.

  4. I’d say the Libs have a better chance in Albany with Nat preferences than in Collie Preston.

    But i suspect postals and prepolls will get the Libs over the line in Wanneroo and Riverton.

    Forrestfield could go either way 50-50.

  5. (I’ve been a lurker since shortly after the Federal election, but am back again today)

    Can someone explain to me the circumstances under which (it is officially a hung parliament and then) they have to vote again? Or will one or the other leader be given a chance in turn to see what they can do? I’ve got a vested interest in this as when I last posted I lived in NSW, have been in Canberra since January, and am going to Perth this summer. I seem to remember Frank, as well as you, William, are both WA natives so maybe you can explain this to me 😉 …. thanks 🙂

  6. …what about Alfred Cove, Nedlands and Kwinana – last word on those last night suggested that the first two were too close to call, and the media doesn’t seem to think Kwinana’s over yet?

  7. In Alfred Cove nearly all the parties are preferencing Woollard, who has managed to stay ahead of the Labor vote, so she should win that seat…just.

    In Nedlands the Greens for some insane reason preferenced Labor ahead of Walker, who will fall behind the Labor vote. Thus, the Liberals should go on to win the seat with a reasonable margin.

    In Kwinana both the Liberals and Greens have preferenced Adams first. She should be able to stay ahead of the Liberals and with their preferences go on to win the seat.

  8. Alfred Cove is undecided either way it will be a conservative seat, could be a Liberal seat if the Greens preferences back Labor. The independent in Kwinana has won and the Libs will gain Nedlands as far as ive heard.

  9. The Green how to vote for Alfred Cove puts Woollard 2nd before the Labor candidate – I have no idea why they did that here and not in Nedlands though.

  10. What happened in Albany? 1v1v was supposed to hurt Labor there, but they seem to be actually doing OK. It’s one of Labor’s best seats in terms of swing. So’s David Templeman in Mandurah, by the way.

    Sue Walkers’ gone in Nedlands – ABC has a Lib/ALP 2pp, so I’m presuming the Greens prefs did her in. Janet Woolard’s making heavy weather in Alfred Cove. Kierath must’ve been hated alright… the unknown Liberal candidate this time did much better. Woolard easily came second, but the difference between her and Labor is less than the Green vote – she’ll be hoping she got at least half the Green prefs.

    Kwinana – ABC has a ALP/Lib margin, which is wrong. If the Liberal prefs go to Adams, she’s in like Flynn.

  11. Janet Woollard was on the radio yesterday night saying how happy she was that the Liberals were winning outside of Alfred Cove, she tried to be a Liberal For Forests so her politics are clear.

    She would I expect support a Liberal government on most issues.

  12. 9 Duke: Woollard was ‘Libs For Forests’ once upon a time, so the Greens would like her a lot more than Walker. If they put her above Labor, she’s in then.

  13. ABC online is reporting that the meeting today between the ALP and the Nats has brought about the possibility of an ALP/National Coalition.

    Who would have thought that was a serious possibility?

  14. I think of the above seats, the Liberals will win in Riverton and Wanneroo. Albany hangs in the balance. Forrestfield and Collie-Preston will probably go Labor’s way.

    Does anyone know how the Labor candidate did so well after preferences in North-West. Looking at the Liberal and National primary vote figures I thought one of those parties would have won. Did they fail to preference one another or something?

  15. Duke, if the ALP is doing well out of Nat preferences in North West, I would suspect it has something to do with the Nats branding themselves as reigional independents. This would go down well. Whereas the Greens have clearly taken a lot of disaffected ALP vote, in the country the Nats could have done the same thing.

  16. So Glen, being someone without a brain, please explain who will back down, the Nationals who said the Regional Royalty program is not negotiable or Barnett who said Regional Royalties isn’t going to happen?

  17. Isn’t it possible that Green and Independent preferences in North-West will push the Nationals vote past the Liberals, Liberal preferences then electing the Nationals candidate? The difference in votes is about 2% at the moment.

    How’s Morley going? Is the Liberal guy all but elected or are D’Orazio preferences going Labor’s way?

  18. Yes it would be interesting if the nationals grew up and put policy first, but I don’t think it is going to happen, they will form a coalition with the Liberals. The nationals will back down as always and the long decline of their party will continue.

  19. I need to return to proper type and attack the 1 vote 1 value rubbish, what this election shows so very clearly is that all the right wing nonsense, trying to defend the indefensible for the complete rubbish that it is.

    The idea that all people actually getting a fair shot and having an equal vote at an election neither aids labor nor hurts the Nationals, what is does is spread the decision fairly across the population.

    Any idea that 1 v 1 v has backfired or hurt labor clearly fails to understand the very basis of the change which was to remove a basic undemocratic distortion, and to share the vote equally – that somehow this advantages labor is completely discredited by last night’s outcome, it only advantages labor when voters want it too.

  20. “9 Duke: Woollard was ‘Libs For Forests’ once upon a time, so the Greens would like her a lot more than Walker. If they put her above Labor, she’s in then.”

    Ahhh no. I wouldn’t be so sure on that. The greens are well aware that the return of liberals would be a return of the RFC era old growth logging. Thats a worst-of-all-scenarios outcome.

    To be honest, amongst most of us greenies, libs-for-forrest and the related conservative-green tickets where really seen as feeders for liberal preferences, and as somewhat cynical ones. Whether that was true is another matter. Personally I always thought Woollard was both sincere, and somewhat brave for it. But that was the perception many of us had.

  21. charles #23 – I think the Nationals would be putting policy first by assisting the Liberals to govern. Their voter base is mainly conservative socially and would not go down well with some of Labor’s policies. Whatever happens, I hope Grylls does not become Premier or anything crazy like that. That would be bad.

    Ideally I would like to see Labor and the Liberals govern together, thereby sidelining the nationals, but given that’s not going to happen there isn’t much good to come of things. Maybe Labor will be able to govern with the support of independents?

  22. Jasmine

    Based on the Boundries and votes of the last election (before last night) Labor would pick up 8 seats from 1v1v, while the National/Liberal loses 6

    That is why it advantages Labor, it is the fact that Carpenter had done a bad job ALP down 6%, Lib, Nat and Green up 2 each. That is why Labor had not benefited

    The 2PP vote is 52-48 Liberal, yet Labor is still alive, that is an anomalie of the 1v1v

  23. can someone explain to me what would be involved with the regional
    loyalty program
    of those seats I don’t think labor will win 4/5
    I think they’ve won Collie-Preston & Albany
    but they have sitting MPS for Wanneroo & Riverton… wouldn’t they be better at
    organising pre-poll and postal votes on their behalf?

  24. Julie in Canberra @5:Can someone explain to me the circumstances under which (it is officially a hung parliament and then) they have to vote again?

    “Hung Parliament” is a descriptive term, rather than definitive.

    The election elects individual MPs only. It’s up to them to form alliances that have a reasonable chance of acting as a government.

    Hence, there is no such “official” thing as a hung Parliament and hence no need to have a fresh election.

  25. Too right he has GB (#27). The Nationals in the east, like those in the west are starting to realise why independents like Oakshott and Windsor do so well.

    I must admit I find some of the remarks on this thread and yesterday’s WA thread unfathomable on the confidence that a WA Nationals-Labor deal will not happen.

    The ABC is reporting that the WA Nationals are saying a coalition with the Libs is not the best deal for the regions and Barnett is digging in on regional royalties not happening under his watch which the Nationals claim is a deal breaker. Maybe it won’t happen but I just can’t see where this confidence that such a deal is impossible is coming from.

  26. dovif

    Libs +2.9%
    Nats + 1.2%
    Greens + 4%

    A rough bit of arithmetic says thats 8.1%

    Labor was -6% what happened to the other 2.1%? Was this 1v1v?

  27. Dovif, 1V1V only benefited the ALP in that it removed the bias against the metropolitan area that was around. This “benefit” was a one-off.

    Yes with 2PP at 52-48, a party can still win with 48 (possibly). But this is not an anomoly of 1V1V, but rather a consequence of single member electorates.

    The Nat vote does not justify winning 5 seats out of 59. The election method advantages the Nats over the greens who have double the Nat vote, because it rewards strong localised votes rather than total votes. In the same way, the independents probably only exist because of single member electorates. They would need 1/59th of the vote or maybe 5% under so called more democratic proportional systems.

  28. This talk between Grylls and Carps, is just to get a better deal out of Colin tomorrow.

    Still the election is by no means over, we’ve still got Monday to endure.

  29. slightly off topic… but
    long term the nationals have no future….. they for the most part cannot be independent of the Liberals and economic rationalism is poision in the bush
    demographic changes will reduce the number of seats in regional areas make
    them more marginal and/or more urban
    even now of the nine seats the Nationals hold federally on 5 are safe from a popular independent or a a competent Labor or liberal candidate

  30. [Why dont the Nats just disband and all sit as Independents?]

    Or stay as a party, but let their members’ have a conscience vote at every division.

    If they did that some Liberals would defect and become Nats.

  31. “long term the nationals have no future”

    Agree as long as they remain the “yes men to the libs”

    However with the democrats gone the Nats do have a unique opportunity to place themselves as a true independent party.

    The democrats, for the most part worked deals with labor and lib, if the nats grab the bull by the nuts they have a chance to reestablish and rebrand themselves.

    Could also do the same federally, pass labors budget measures in return for better deals in regional areas.

  32. There are really only six Federal National seats, the 3 Qld Nats are now members of the Federal Liberal Party (Maybe).

    The Nats know they are toast Federally and need to either merge or re-invent themselves, Grylls has shown them how to.

    William do you prefer Tomato Sauce, HP or Soy with your hat? 😛

  33. The Nats would only have to guarantee Labor supply wouldn’t they? If Labor gave them the thing they wanted most in return, the Nats could still remain independent and vote on other issues as they wanted.

  34. Just listening to Carpenter, he sounds confident. Hopefully the Nats screw the Libs over!

    Never again would the National’s be taken for granted again.

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