Photo finishes (lower house)

Riverton 8002 8034 16036
Wanneroo 7299 7293 14592
Albany 8182 8065 16247
Forrestfield 8177 7935 16112
Collie-Preston 8299 7883 16182

3pm Sunday. This post will be used to follow developments in the late count. Labor can still form a minority government if it wins four out of the above five seats, remembering that in 2005 they generally did about 2 per cent worse on absent and postal votes than on booth votes. Going on the 2005 result we could expect each to seat to have about 400 postal and 2000 absent votes outstanding, although I hear there was an unusually high number of absent votes due to confusion over the new boundaries.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

356 comments on “Photo finishes (lower house)”

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  1. Joe, you can keep talking to the cows come home but Frank will never sway from his indignant support for the ALP.

    GP – Pot meet Kettle re your support of the CONservatives.

  2. No 250

    Mr Calabrese, it is sickening to think that you are a fellow Italian. Then again, the Calabrians are responsible for the mess in NSW.


    That’s probably Al’s floating corpse.

  3. Ahh, You cannot handle the facts so you attack the person.

    Typical CONservative, they have to play the man and not the ball.

  4. NCB was not convicted for fraud he did not facilitate WA INC all he did was insult a woman which john howard used to get him expelled from the liberal party strait away brian burke was not expelled until 2 yrs ago that says it all

  5. Hey Frank,

    The CONservatives are the people that Alan Carpenter may be about to get into bed with. If your support for the ALP is based on ideology – surely this is a problem for you.

    I for one would be mortified if the Libs decided to go into Coalition with the greens…

  6. You need not engage in partisan rancour to want Corpse out of office.

    Diddums, but Barnett will go down in history as being the leader to lose an unlosable election TWICE in a row.

  7. Frank

    I think its about time Frank you were about in your place & told you ” show indignant support for Labor just because you use rational arguments , I mean after all Liberal Supporters & Greens suporters would never be indigant or partisan suporters and you should understand that , as I already do

  8. i think the one going down on losing an unlosable election will be carps who in the labour party thought they could lose 10 seats 5 weeks ago NO ONE

  9. No 263

    Yes, gusface, but the Nats are traditionally quite socially conservative which aligns with the Liberals quite well; and their coalition tends to temper outright of extremes of both parties.

  10. be honest frank did you think labor could lose ten seats i certanly did not

    Nobody did – I’ve always said it would be close.

  11. This is also a little bit of the planets aligning for Rudd. With the Fed and State NATS pondering the meaning of life for a moment.

    How much would it be worth to him to have this deal done!?

    Maybe they would be willing to pay almost anything to do this deal for its nation wide implication? How would the federal Libs react? And how would the Federal NATS react to the way the Fed Libs react.

    History says the NATS that will most probably join with the Libs in a coalition. But that is not the message we are getting at the moment, so we can speculate. The only reason now for the NATS to join with the Libs is, thats what we used to do in the past.

    Anyway its fun seeing it play out.

  12. There certainly are some crazy ideas being bandied about here. For example, Thomas Paine @ 217:

    It is not how many seats you have but how many you lose that is imporant in deciding government. If you had 45 and ended up with 35 then that is a clear message from the electorate that you should give up government.

    What a quaint notion, which I presume only applies to Labor governments.

    Oh, and getting “big fundraisers” from lobbyists is bad only when Labor politicians do it, right Joe @ 245?

    So I suppose donations from… let’s see… Manildra (in return for the imposition of an alcohol excise tax), or The Exclusive Bretheren (in return for special Industrial Relations treatment), or the Liquor Lobby (in return for tax loopholes on alcopops)… they’re perfectly fine?

    Maybe we should throw in the endorsement of Malcolm Turnbull by… oh my gosh… Conrad Black, from his jail cell in Florida, is quite OK with you? Tut, tut… and a convicted criminal, too.

    Howard’s Rule… actually I think it was Costello’s in point of fact… was that if you had anything to do with Brian Burke you were tainted and should go. Campbell merely followed that rule, put in place by his own party. It is hard to see why Rudd should have done the same, as he is not – to my recal – a member of the Liberal Party.

    Youse wingnuts sure do come up with some funny ideas, from time to time.

  13. No 270

    I will refer to posts as I wish. I am not here to indulge in a circle jerk of leftist backslapping; nor to seek the approval of others.

  14. Labor was punished for an excerable campaign and for Carpenters lack of political nouse. All things being equal a swing of 4 to 5 seats would have been par. Unfortunately our poor campaign, bad timing( trust me the party was advised to go the day the west ran the “replaciing Buswell with Barnett” story”, because many of us felt that the positive polling we were getting was nearly all anti buswell not pro labor!. We were aware that it was a completely different scenario facing Barnett. For reasons known only to Carpenter we waited too long then went straight after Buswell was rolled. The opposition campaign (and by this i mean the west australian newspaper not the liberal rabble) blew us out of the water. Not to mention we went to the polls two weeks too late with a lazy election campaign designed for the unelectable Buswell not the bland but competent Barnett.

    The relentless attack on us by the West should have been anticipated. Unfortunately we had a totally ineffective response to their message, that appeared to change frequently in line with our panick. Polling after the election had been called told us what many of the more experineced heads in the party had been saying and that was that without Omodei or Buswell as our unelectable opposition we were in serious trouble.

    This was made worse by the factional preselection deals that left us in my opinion with a range of unknown or unpopular candidates in seats we needed to win or hold. Our inability to articulate what had been nearly 2 terms of competent government and instead focus on gimmicks such a banning smoking or no nukes perplexed us all. There was simply no directon and no focus to the campaign. We didnt really have one. I honestly beleive we thought that the Libs were so unelectable that we could coast to a lazy victory. I hate to say it but we were bloody arrogant and too smart by half. A stronger more focused campaign and smarter preselections ie Kucera for Mt Lawley and whomever Dorazio chose for Morley would have seen us lose 3-5 seats maximum. As it was weve been bashed but the good citizens of WA were astute enough to not give the liberal party a majority in the own right.

    Any arguements posted here that the libs have a mandate to govern are farcical. Labor will have a plurality (ie the most seats of any individual party in parliament) If the nationals maintain their commitment to not form a co-alition with the libs than labor will be the party looked upon to form a minority government. If Labor can convince the Nationals to co-operate in a minority government then one can argue that that best reflects the will of thge people as the party with the largest representation in the parliament is governing with assistance from minority parties. Currently i rate the chances of this at 40%. While Grylls is talking the talk, smart money would have to be on the nats buckling and forming a coalition with the libs. It wont be for lack of trying from an embarassed, shell shocked and chastened labor party. We dont want to swap sides in the house on the hill and the chatter is well do what we need to. Who knows premier Grylls has a ring to it!!

  15. #
    Generic Person Says:
    September 8th, 2008 at 2:11 am

    No 274

    Conrad Black is a man of great integrity and intelligence.

    Channelling Norm Marlborough I see 🙂

  16. Seems message from th election result is voters ar NOT happy with Labor with justification , BUT voters ar NOT satisfied with th Liberals either !

    Given ‘Brian Burke’ factor , Carps ‘personality’ and a poor Labor electon campaign , Labor Party has “future upside” , whereas th Liberal hard heads should be more worried with this result in cool analysis with th political advantages they had …and in spite of th likelihood Liberals may hav a minority Govt after Nats reluctantly come on board to him …at a price

    message for Greens…congratualtions on efectively prefferencing a PRO Uranium mining Party th Libs…so no more moralising as I’m gonna keep bringing this moralising sham up ‘dressed up’ as pref tactics

    Greens in reality used politcal pref tactics which is fine but yous lost your moralising streak with it

  17. Labor and the Nationals together is in my view the worst result possible for this state. Grylls as Premier? I should certainly hope not, we’d become the laughing stock of the nation. This isn’t Queensland for goodness sake. If Labor and the Liberals had any sense they would both agree to refuse Gryll’s requests and see what happens. Another election would surely give one party a majority or close enough with independent support.

  18. rumpolecat has summed it up perfectly Labor stuffed it up and we suffered for it but the Libs haven’t benefited from the result either.

    You watch how the Kath & Kims in their McMansions react when a Minority Liberal Govt make some unpopular to appease Grylls – the next Poll they won’t be swinging Baseball bats, they’ll be bringing out the Ball and Chain.

  19. the greens did not preferance libs they ran some open tickets and the only marginal was mt lawley but there was a unusal leakage from green prefrances to liberals instead of labour

  20. No 282

    Nope. Labor will do anything and everything to avoid another election in quick succession. They’ll sell their souls, but ultimately the Nats will side with the Liberals.

    It’s frankly difficult to believe that the Nats could support a party of corrupt cretins, the ALP.

  21. It’s frankly difficult to believe that the Nats could support a party of corrupt cretins, the ALP.

    And if they do, will you do the Honourable thing and resign from the Liberal Party in protest that their junior party has acted in this way, and urge they withdraw from a federal coalition ?

  22. No 283

    I’d like to see some more detail on how the equalisation grants work, but on face value there is plenty of money to throw around unless Corpse has misappropriated it to Brian Burke.

  23. # 284 gusface – A very amusing little rhyme you have there. I certainly can’t feel it, although they are being quite stupid. I’d prefer a majority Labor or Liberal government to this Grylls character. I can certainly feel power slipping – from the city to the country. Libs and Labor need to urgently get together (secretly of course to prevent greater Nationals support) and sort this mess out.

  24. i no bredon grylls may be up for the idea of labor but i would not be sure of the others he has quote said in the media he will make the decsion when he talks to his party room and they will make the choice what i recon could happend is that both partys agree to what they want and offer more then it will be the choice of who they prefer and who there voters prefer which is clearly the libs they are members of strong conservative areas

  25. Ron@280

    NOWHERE did the Greens actively preference Lib over the ALP. There were a few open tickets, and I think a couple of seats where the Libs were preferenced over the Nats – in places the ALP wasn’t in the fight anyway.

    Regardless, as the result shows, preference flows from the Greens have been unpredictable this time – as happens when a minor party doubles its vote in many electorates. If Greens voters followed the HTV as closely as in past elections, the ALP would be home in a couple of seats that are in doubt, but in some seats less than half of the Greens voters followed the HTV directly.

  26. You’re hardly a bastion of honour, given your undying support for Brian Burke.

    Who said I suported Brian Burke – I’m glad he got expelled from the Party and was bansihed.

    For all his faults, I applaud Alan Carpenter for dealing with the Burke issue head on, unlike the libs with Buswel, NCB etc.

    So stop putting words into my mouth.

  27. No 292

    Exactly southernboy. It would seem to me that if Nats voters wanted Labor, they would have voted so and sent the Nats into oblivion. Most Nats voters already entertain the idea of a LNP coalition, but they would not stomach an ALP/Nat coalition.

  28. The Reason why the Vote is all over the place is simple – a lot of people were refusing How To Vote Cards and were voting “blind” so to speak, so preference flows are all over the shop.

  29. the problem is duke is carps no’s labor has been hurt at this election and he no’s hes will be blamed he will do anything to keep labor in government and if colin does play hard ball with the nats which he probly wont then i will applaud him for it although they will go with labor colin would not have conpromised his postion and would have not Supported somthign he think is not wise unfair and that is econmically bad

  30. That doesn’t account for the sheer volume Frank.

    Several Greens booths ran out of HTVs on polling day very early on – more people than ever were taking them.

    I’d say Greens voters didn’t vote “blind”.

    They saw things pretty clearly… 🙂

  31. The Reason why the Vote is all over the place is simple – a lot of people were refusing How To Vote Cards and were voting “blind” so to speak, so preference flows are all over the shop.

    One bloke even took to carrying bags of rubbish in each hand so he couldn’t take a HTV card from ANY party, and a lot of the PYT’s in their late teens/early 20’s were the same, they’d walk straight past.

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