| ALP | LIB | Total | |
| Riverton | 8002 | 8034 | 16036 |
| Wanneroo | 7299 | 7293 | 14592 |
| Albany | 8182 | 8065 | 16247 |
| Forrestfield | 8177 | 7935 | 16112 |
| Collie-Preston | 8299 | 7883 | 16182 |
3pm Sunday. This post will be used to follow developments in the late count. Labor can still form a minority government if it wins four out of the above five seats, remembering that in 2005 they generally did about 2 per cent worse on absent and postal votes than on booth votes. Going on the 2005 result we could expect each to seat to have about 400 postal and 2000 absent votes outstanding, although I hear there was an unusually high number of absent votes due to confusion over the new boundaries.
Which principle of the WA Nats precludes them from support of a Labor government?
Glen says: The Nats know their place, if they want to throw their lot in with a corrupt incompetent government that’s their choice,
Which they did repeatedly with Howard.
wbj, where were they corrupt and i dont call economic prosperity, low inflation, high wages, low unemployment incompetent?
Howie was far more a leader than Carps.
Yeah Glen, pseudo dictators always look great.
Oh I wish the results would hurry up and get in. As someone mentioned earlier- perhaps the Nats are getting in early in case those seats Labor needs actually go their way.
And surely Adams and Bowler will support Labor, despite all the personal attacks? I’m sure they did some attacks too.
Well given WA’s enormous economic prosperity, nation leading wages and record low unemployment that means WA Labor was brilliant by your logic glen?
[if they want to throw their lot in with a corrupt incompetent government that’s their choice]
They’ve done it before; look at when they supported the Howard government from ’96 – ’07.
Here’s the other thing – Will Barnett call it a day if he sniffs he has lost all chance at Government or will he hang around waiting for Labor to falter and then support him?
There’s got to be a way of reaching an understanding with the Nats about their Regional Rorts which is mutually beneficial. The compromise could be made to look like “good government”.
In exchange to the Nats dropping the price to say $300M, Labor could;
1. Agree to expedite and ensure favourable consideration for approvals for regional programs
2. Agree to put in place programs which have been slowtracked to save money
3. Agree to a “regional and remote salary loading” for nurses, teachers etc
Where there’s a will, there’s a way. 😀
Sorry I meant and then Nationals support him* .. would Carps hang around if the reverse happened?
Perhaps Centrebet and the rest should have put odds on Nationals winning Government – you’d get a return no matter what. 😛
I think there is a lot of potential in an ALP/Nat government. Not a Coalition, just and ALP minority with Nat support, and one of the Labor “independents” as speaker.
That would be a lot more stable than a Liberal Minority Govt where Colin has Chairman Sniff creeping around looking for an opening all the while, with the Courts holding a quiet knife for Colin at the ready……..
It also a way for the Nats to survive and indeed prosper. I think they have to try and actually take on a new voter base made up of the less conservative people who vote them now, and a load of soft ALP voters who want their vote to filter down to somewhere other than the ALP for a change, but cant bring themselves to vote for the Libs. I reckon there are more of these than you might think who at the moment make up a lot of those who vote Green but preference the ALP before Lib.
The Nats have had to adapt in the face of 1v1v, and it looks like they have adapted in a way that is successfull at least in the short term. The challenge is for them to keep the course they have set and really be a balance of power party and make these new Nats viable. The danger for the Nats is if they seem to go back to being the bent over boys for the Libs. If they do that then no-one will trust thm if they appear to be changing again. Evolution is unforgiving and i reckon they get one shot at this, but WOW if they get it right!!
The whole political landscape shifts.
Had to laugh at Bishop last night. The arrogant way she declared that she knows what the people who voted for the Nats want!! They didnt vot for your lot Julie. According to her they want the Nats to be Lib lite. Still. it may just be that she is smart enough to grasp the major threat this election result implies for the Federal Libs if the Nats stick to their guns and be more than a tad frightened.
Glen says: wbj, where were they corrupt
Hmmm, Haneef, AWB wheat deals to Iraq, Reith and his Paticks collusion, children overboard spring to mind.
How is children overboard corruption?
LOLOL
I think then Libs talking to the NATS like they should know there place will not help their cause. And that is the problem for the NATS they are village idiots of the coalition and should just be humoured. There continual association with Libs blurs their identity with the electorate who problem see them as another type of junior Liberal.
Certainly the NATS on a State and Federal level being less trampled under foot by the Lib mafia would help their profile. They would have won plaudits for passing the Fuelwatch, Medicare Levy etc despite the Libs – and shown themselves to be a genuine party, independent and not just shadows.
On the federal scene the NATS will know they are in opposition for the next 6 years and that being the case their relevance level will continue to decline.
I can see why they might think of doing a deal with the ALP. But do they have the courage?
IMHO
The NATS want $700m over how many years?
Glen
Children Overboard is corruption in the sense that it involved using the public service in a way that corrupted its position. They became involved in the manipulation of images for the purpose of message. The Liberals made people become involved in lies about the true nature of what happened. They tried to silence the defence forces.
This is corruption or moral deterioration as my OED’s first definition says. It isn’t bribery.
wbj
we is laughing at u
Cant believe we are still debating that Howard and whether the little toerag was corrupt.
In 1998 Justice North ofhe Federal Court found that there was enough evidence to go to trial on whether Patricks and others (including Reith and Howard) had conspired to defraud various waterside workers of their entitlements.
Unfortunatley it was a mutually assured destruction scenario for all parties and the MUA put their members jobs first so it never went to trial.
If it had gone to trial there is no doubt that Howard and Rieth would have been up on charges of conspiracy just prior to the 98 election.
They were bent as a dogs hind leg. That to me is just the most glaring example. He well deserved to lose his seat.
And why oh why is this sneaky little opportunist such a hero to the people who support the party that he left in such a sad state of disrepair all for the sake of his ego??
111,
Not only laughing at Bishop, but Hockey too …. After 11 years of the Libs (96-07) and he’s got the nerve to say that people are tired of Labor after 10 months? Sounded just as bad/funny/strange as he does in Parliament [I was at Question Time last Thursday] 😉
Why is he such a hero, imacca? Because he is the second best prime minister to ever lose his seat.
Hockey has, since Howard got in his ear for being too friendly with Rudd, has become a bitter and surly man. None of that ‘he is not a bad bloke character left’. Somehow Howard managed to move him to the dark side.
I have no time for him now days.
A few things…
The Sunday Times had an article slamming Carpenters ‘hand-picked candidates’, but mentioned Roger Cook as a winner in Kwinana. Hmm.
Neither SBS or ABC mentioned Carol Adams; SBS had Karen Middleton briefly mentioning the Greens coming close in Fremantle, nothing on ABC. Also, Joe Hockey acting like a goose and trying to draw conclusions about WA mattering federally.
Also in the Sunday Times… apparently Bowler is playing a similar game as the Nationals, asking for $100 million worth of stuff such as a new hospital in Kalgoorlie.
And Rita Saffiotti winning in West Swan, who will be the figurehead if Labor is returned and construction on the Ellenbrook rail line will commence in 2012, much to the Embarrassment to the Liberal member for Swan Hills 🙂
Listening to the Carpenter interview it seems the NATS have put something quite specific that he needs to get agreement on with his own crew but, he sounded quite positive about it all. Maybe just grateful that he is still in with a chance.
He wasn’t acting as though it was a long shot and kept going on about wanting wanting to provide good government on into the future and thats what they both want or some such thing.
The Libs are going to have to bend over themselves on this one – but the one ace they don’t have is a Federal Govt. There are lots of permutations and lots of advantages that could come to both Labor and the NATS from having some cooperation on a national and state level.
If the deal goes ahead it serves notice to the Federal Liberals. They wouldn’t want to go over-board getting stuck into the NATS though.
No federal politics on WA election threads, please.
Barnett seems very ungracious to the Nats… I wonder if this is why people in his party are/were so against him…
Is he going to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory? How hard can this actually be?
Yah boo-
Look back, Goss, Kennett also talked about solidering on when they lost their majority – they gave up the ghost in weeks.
But let them try – it’ll just make it worse for Labor – ultimately any new government needs to be tested on the floor of parliament. Labor may drag it out for weeks but the result will be the same – defeat.
The real question is who is going to administer the coup de grace to Labor?
A new story with the same information.
Posted 11 minutes ago
The leader of the Labor Party in Western Australia says he is excited about the possibility of forming government with the support of the Nationals.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/07/2357745.htm?section=justin
Peter @ 126…
If that is true – Colin has done it again. First with a billion dollar canal – then with ‘arrogance’… wait sorry that was meant to be for carps.
It all depends on these postals – which don’t close until Thursday morning. I know some people said they would flow more to the Libs- but surely with all this news- some might consider going back to Labor considering the comments put out in the media? Would make it very interesting.
If Labor does get the govt – how long do you reckon Colin will last around? I reckon a by-election isn’t too far off… and Deidre will be waiting.
This is hilarious.
Glen repeating the pre election Party line, pretending to know what he is talking about. Corruption over Varanus Island? It was an industrial accident for Christ’s sake. Corruption from the CCC report? The current party affiliations of members likely to be named is still the Liberal Party! Labor got rid of its crooks and incompetents, the Libs closed ranks around theirs.
And the glee club from last night (and I don’t criticism them for it, just reserve the right to laugh at their current discomfort) is now berating and abusing their bed partners of 60 plus years for contemplating infidelity.
Hey, if you chose to sleep with a tart, don’t be surprised if you get crabs once in a while. Or that she may try sell herself to others in the hope of a better offer after you tell her to naff off.
And what of Labor? Seriously considering marriage to a whore? Yeah, that’ll work out.
I stand by my prediction. the whole situation, whichever way it falls, will be untenable, and WA will be back to the polls within 6 – 12 months
If I were Alan Carpenter I would play poker with the Nats. Force a quick decision because the Nats aren’t sure who will form the government. The ALP are perilously close to retaining government.
With the increase in the number of issued absent votes it appears very likely that the ALP will win Albany, Forrestfield and Collie-Preston. It would appear Riverton is probably (but not certainly) lost. Meaning that Wanneroo is the pivotal seat.
Of course if Carpenter wins 4 of the 5 disputed seats the Nats become potentially expendable. So Carpenter has some bargaining chips. He could put an irresistable offer on the table for the Nats to accept within 48-72 hours. Take it or leave it and see if they buckle. If they agree then a press conference is held and an agreement is announced. Grills would have to be tempted to accept because he potentially risks losing the deal of a lifetime.
If the ALP do form a minority without needing the Nats, then they would show good faith and abide by the agreement, providing additional consolidation on the numbers in the chamber. If the ALP don’t win enough seats then Carpenter can claim to have out manouvered a cocky Colin Barnett.
Either way Carpenter protects the ALP’s incumbency and probably saves his leadership. Bit it is risky. Like a game of poker.
I really hope the Nats don’t throw in their lot with Labor but I have to admit today’s theatre is making me wonder …
Still, it is just theatre, so who knows what is really going on?
Hope Barnett doesn’t over-play his hand.
Fulvio #130
In 1999 Steve Bracks formed a minority government with the support of two very conservative independents from traditional NP heartland, Craig Ingram from Gippsland East & Russell Savage from Mildura. Nobody thought that would last either but it actually worked very well. The minority government was very stable.
I wouldn’t assume WA will go back to the polls quickly. Tight numbers tend to lend themselves to the government of the day being more disciplined.
I tend to agree with Sceptic – if the NATS and Labor are really serious about this then Carpenter will want to bed it down ASAP as insurance cutting Libs out of the picture while the final numbers are still not quite certain.
I don’t know why forming a coalition govt would be considered going to bed with a whore. It happens all the time around the world and in Australia. It is only as dirty as the compromises/sacrifices that are required to be made.
“I wouldn’t assume WA will go back to the polls quickly.”
I agree. The Independents (or Nats, or whoever) who hold the balance of power have every incentive to keep a hung Parliament alive as long as possible.
They’ll threaten and try to bluff the Govt, but ultimately they’re better off sticking with the current numbers than letting there be another election, and hoping that lightning strikes twice.
Minority govts get formed by parties on the way into power not by parties moving from majority to minority. Funnily enough the BOP holder is looking for longevity as BOP holder.
Riverton, Morely and Wanneroo will most likely fall to the Libs = 25 seats + 4 Nats and 2 Independents Liz and possibly Janet Woollard.
Labor to win Collie Preston and Forrestfield.
Nat preferences may decide North West and Albany 50-50.
End result is a change of government.
Another thing: if one accepts the view that late counting is likely to (slightly) favour the Libs (I don’t have a view on this, but a number of people have said so), then Carpenter really wants to get on his bike. Which it looks like he is doing.
Carpenter is a snake in my view, but he’s smart. I’m not ruling him out yet.
Minority governments are formed in situations where a majority government cannot be formed and it does not matter whether or not the minority government was previously a majority government or not.
I wonder how long Barnett will stick around if the ALP and Nats decide to marry. Will he stick around for the next election to possiably claim government or will he quit the party and let the Libs destroy themselves.
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/District_of_Fremantle/notional_distribution_of_preferences.php
This notional distribution of preferences really does not do justice to the marginality of Fremantle and to who it is marginal to (a few hundred less liberal votes and a few hundred more Green votes and hey presto a different result).
The result of these tight seats does hinge on the number of absent votes cast. The ALP will benefit much better from these than the postals but I don’t have any local knowledge on how well the ALP organised their postals.
The ALP will win Albany. A lead of over 110 is a significant lead especially with many absents to count. Wanneroo (+6) and Riverton (-36) are much closer. They are a toss up and the ALP only needs to win one of them. Nothing can be assumed until the votes are counted.
This is Carpenter’s strong bargaining chip. It is like the quiz game Deal or no Deal. When do you take the bank offer? If the ALP can give the Nats what they want then they would be silly to reject it. Especially if the votes fall the ALP’s way.
Remember the ALP can promise the Nats minority govt, the Libs can’t.
Bennyboy @ 140 that’s what I’ve been asking earlier and said Deidre will probably get his prime seat… mind you… if it comes off the back a sentiment that a Labor-Nat coalition is good – then it could give Labor a chance at getting a seat. Possibly another independent. One must consider if the sniffer would call it a day? [if the libs lost] Unless the Libs like they’re idea of recycling leaders.
Sceptic @ 142 – nice analogy – I think Alan has one eye on the Case he’s picked [ie those close seats] and one eye on the bank offer [the Nats]. I think he’ll see how Monday goes – then meet with Grylls either Monday night or Tuesday morning and give him an ultimatum then of say 24-48hours [as suggested before] and hoping in the meantime those seats keep coming his way.
If Barnett calls it a day, then I recon the sniffer will be reelected leader and the backstabbing and infighting will start all over again. Sniffer will become the parliaments new clown and the ALP will be laughing to the bank.
Wonder if Grylls is talking to Truss who is also reassessing the role of the NATS. We might be seeing the first crack in the glass. That Truss is thinking like that makes it a little easier for Grylls.
Anybody see Rudd out and about this evening?
Surely the old coalition have actually won this thing? I am gobsmacked by the talk of anything else.
Still – it could make sense… the two socialist parties finally putting aside their differences and getting together…
TP
i will stake my left nut that carps has done a deal.
my right is on truss working the fed angle to the advantage of the nats
game on hombres
and don’t forget the hot sauce chullo
Grylls surely would have agreed to a Lib-nat things now if he was going to right?
Either way some turbulent times ahead
Julie Bishop reckons Federal Labor is so unpopular now thats why everyone voted against the Liberals and Nats in the federal by-elections.
Does this woman smoke crack?