The Australian reports that Labor’s lead in this fortnight’s Newspoll is down slightly from 57-43 to 56-44. Kevin Rudd is down three points as preferred leader to 65 per cent while Brendan Nelson is up two to 14 per cent.
The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows no change in Labor’s long-standing 58-42 lead. Also featured is a national-level question on state voting intention which suggests collective primary vote support for the state Labor governments is 7 per cent lower than for federal Labor (40 per cent compared with 47 per cent), although Coalition support is only 3 per cent higher (38 per cent compared with 35 per cent). Further questions involve federal Labor’s performance on various individual issues, and attitudes to the balance of power in the Senate.
745 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44”
Rabid Right Radio hosts are ‘warning’ that an Obama President might make the radion waves more balanced, obviouslya disaster.
Many hosts have also warned listeners that an Obama presidency, coupled with Democratic control of Congress, would mean re-establishment of the Fairness Doctrine — and with it, they say, the end of conservative talk radio itself.
Until the FCC struck it down in 1987, the doctrine required holders of broadcast licenses to devote airtime to controversial issues of public importance and — the kicker where right-wing radio is concerned — to present differing views on them.
With Election Day approaching, Norquist said the hosts will come around, because “Obama is completely unacceptable to every radio talk show host.”
Back in Oz, Mr X says the luxury car tax is not dead but it needs major surgery. He is angling to include an allowance for fuel-efficient cars to be exempt which sort of sounds reasonable. There are quite a few cars in the “top 20” most efficient cars which would cost more under the tax.
Luxury car tax ‘not doomed’ in Senate
Off topic, but 4corners tonight is about how Coles/Woolies dominance in food has affected our food safety.
Janet A pipes in with her views of McCain’s VP – “she has moxy” (gets sai once in the heading and twice in the column).
The last time I can remember hearing moxy used was in The Sting.
She also now describes last year’s Aussie election as very dreaery in comparison. Oh poor woman. Looks like she wishes she was still in America…
Hurricane Gustav has now restrengthened to Category 4
Regardless of the rights or wrongs of rebuilding New Orleans last time, it occurred to me that if the levees are breached again it may be much less likely that the city will be rebuilt again. Quite simply, I imagine nobody will be able to get flood insurance for any property there after another flood. The risk must be becoming unsustainable for private insurance companies.
Doh! Please ignore my last post; Gustav is still category 3. The link I gave was to a warning from Saturday that my search engine brought up. For latest info just go to the National Hurricane Centre site:
Sorry; my views on rebuilding New Orleans still stand though.
Problem with New Orleans flood defences is they are built on mud and after you build them up they slowly subside back down
Nelson calls for the RBA to reduce rates by 50 basis points.
So much for the independance of the RBA…
Turnbull also says the intertest rate will come down only due to the economy slowing not because inflation is slowing.
Ok let’s work this through slowly. Turnbull blasts Swan for “goading” the RBA to raise rates, but now there is no problem with Nelson explicitly saying what the RBA should do. Interest rates going down = poor economic management (which I guess means the 10 interest rate rises was due to great economic management).
If inflation is not actually slowing, why then would you want the RBA to decrease rates by 0.5%? Wouldn’t that likely help fuel inflation?
So I guess this means Turnbull and Nelson’s economic model is now: politically motitivated interest rate cuts; inflation is not important, in fact it’s ok. Caution? you throw that to the wind.
Will be very interested to see how the Govt deals with this call during today’s QT.
708 Grog -This is just opposition for political expediency sake. No suggested solutions and oppose in every way possible but no matter what don’t give any credit to the government. What a rabble.
709 – GB Agreed – but Rudd, Julia and Swan need to be able to rip them a new one in QT over it. No time to pussy foot around. Most of the voting public don’t care about the independence of the RBA; so the “drop interest rates by 0.5%” argument will play well unless someone in the govt counters it well.
Objections to the WA redistribution published.
[Nelson calls for the RBA to reduce rates by 50 basis points.
So much for the independance of the RBA…]
Next week he is going to form a politburo to demand an increase in the production of steel.
“Most of the voting public don’t care about the independence of the RBA; so the “drop interest rates by 0.5%” argument will play well unless someone in the govt counters it well.”
That’s true but a .25 drop will also play well for the government for the same reason.
With a drop in interest rates all but guaranteed by the Reserve Bank, factored in by the markets, and already pre-empted by Wizard Home Loans…
Brendan Nelson urges Reserve Bank to cut rates tomorrow, but he’d stay quiet if he was Prime Minister.
Political courage, writ large.
Not to mention inflation data lower than expected. Damn this government for ‘managing the economy’ so badly!
[Not to mention inflation data lower than expected. Damn this government for ‘managing the economy’ so badly!]
No wonder Costello is hanging out on the back bench these days, the best he can come up with is to accuse the Deputy Prime Minister of being a communist:
In terms of the political fray, Costello was totally engaged. After Gillard taunted him in the parliament last week about his publisher’s motto, “books with spine”, he responded: “If she bought a copy, I might sign it for her. She could take it back to that flat where she lives with the spartan furniture, put it up on the bookshelf with her current library, the collected works of Marx and Engels. She could file it alphabetically, by author, ‘Cos’. It will come after ‘Com’, for The Communist Manifesto, and before ‘D’, for Das Kapital. Or she could it put by her bedside where she’s reading a book on how to create unemployment in an economy which is undergoing a mining boom.” Imagine those lines delivered in parliament.
Of course that was more than enough for Glenn Milne to cream himself.
I think Costello is just jealous that Gillard has made it to a political officer higher than what he achieved. He didn’t make it to Deputy P.M., let alone P.M.
Ah ShowsOn always fighting the last war.
717 – a quick shot across the bow then off he rides into obsecurity once more.
[717 – a quick shot across the bow then off he rides into obsecurity once more.]
I thought ESJ was attacking Costello for thinking that the Soviet Union still exists.
716 ShowsOn – What Costello fails to see is that such verbal garbage, as Keating found out, is not wlecomed or accepted by the voting public. If he were to become leader Costello would be a complete turn off with this behaviour. Gillard’s performance too is not what the public want to see. She’s better off leaving that to Tip.
Mind you this type of behaviour by Costello indicates to me that he is out the door. He really doesn’t care what people think.
[716 ShowsOn – What Costello fails to see is that such verbal garbage, as Keating found out, is not wlecomed or accepted by the voting public. ]
Well, I think it can work. One way Keating won the 1993 election was by painting Hewson as an out of touch crazy economist. But calling the deputy P.M. a communist is the kind of thing that goes on in university Liberal clubs. It doesn’t even score high points on the originality scale. What next, he will talk about the fact she doesn’t have children? Or that she isn’t married? I think he called her a communist because he didn’t have anything substantive to say.
[Mind you this type of behaviour by Costello indicates to me that he is out the door. He really doesn’t care what people think.]
I also forgot that this was a speech made in front of a Liberal crowd, where the easiest way to send them into rapture is to accuse a political opponent of being a communist.
Inflation at a 15 month low, Current account deficit at a 3 year low
The same as he was waiting for the economy to tank before the election (and it didn’t), Costello would have been waiting for it to get worse around about now, almost a year later (and it hasn’t).
Cozzie never stands up to be counted. Whenever he’s “succeeded” he has always had things handed to him on a silver platter. He fails when the silver platter’s denied him.
The economy’s improvement, and potential for more improvement, will have put the kybosh in Costello’s bid for the leadership for good.
2 September 2008, Malcolm Turnbull, on why interest rates are falling:
Inflation not slowing, Malcolm?
Sydney Morning Herald, 2 September 2008:
For the Shadow Treasurer he seems remarkably uninformed on current economic trends.
Maybe he should spend more time on his portfolio; it seems he’s got other more engaging interests. Sydney Morning Herald, 28 August 2008:
Can Malcolm keep both balls in the air at the same time:
1) keeping abreast of economic trends; and
2) his leadership manoeuvres.
He needs to be a mighty good juggler if he wants to be Oppo Leader (not to mention PM).
Turnbull has no idea, as usual
It was odd for Talcum to be on the economics committee in the first place. This has historically been a back bench committee.
Poor Fibs can’t take a trick – they hoped the economy would tank, even dreaming of a recession.
Now their only remaining economic hope is an increase in unemployment. Shame the last lot of figures showed a 34 year low. 😛
Inflation will be back when Gustav flattens refinery or ocean production platform or two–the latest figure just a fortuitous dip.
When (and if) the RBA drops rates they will probably say whether it was because of slowing growth, or slowing inflation, or both. (Though I’m not 100% sure when those reasons are released – is it the same day as the decision?).
I’d take the Reserve’s word for it ahead of that of the Government, or the Opposition. I’d even take their word for it ahead of that of the PB brains trust!
What does this say about Palin’s judgement:
The governor’s water broke during the energy conference but she stayed and gave a 30-minute speech before boarding an Alaska Airlines plane home to deliver the baby.
The baby was 2 months premature and she already knew that it was likely to have Down’s Syndrome, but instead of getting to the nearest hospital when her waters broke Palin gave a 30 minute speech and then flew from Texas to Alaska, which apparently is a 6 hour flight. Factor in another couple of hours getting to the airport, check in, etc.
Being tough is one thing, being stupid is something else!
Or was it more sinister than that?
Grog @ 704-
She [Albrechtsen] also now describes last year’s Aussie election as very dreaery in comparison. Oh poor woman. Looks like she wishes she was still in America…
Perhaps we should take up a collection for a one way ticket!
“2 September 2008, Malcolm Turnbull, on why interest rates are falling:
“If interest rates come down tomorrow – and we certainly hope they will – it will be sadly a a consequence of the slowing economy, not slowing inflation”
Not sure Malcolm understands how foolish tht statemnt is nor what Reserve Bank interest rate decision making is base on , even Cossie who dislikes Turnbull would be smirking wider after hearing that
Each month the RBA releases the minutes of its meeting, roughly 14 days afterwards. So that will tell us whether the reason for a reduction (assuming that there is one) was slowing growth, slowing inflation, or both.
It will also tell us how “real” the Reserve thinks any reduction in inflation is.
Agree, however, that Turnbull has little to gain from second-guessing the RBA’s thinking, given that this thinking becomes public soon enough.
Re: Palin “The baby was 2 months premature and she already knew that it was likely to have Down’s Syndrome, but instead of getting to the nearest hospital when her waters broke Palin gave a 30 minute speech and then flew from Texas to Alaska, which apparently is a 6 hour flight. Factor in another couple of hours getting to the airport, check in, etc.
Being tough is one thing, being stupid is something else!
Or was it more sinister than that?
Sounds criminal to me. Certainly not like a good fundy Christian trying to protect the sanctity of life. Who in their right mind would take a 6 hour flight 30 minutes or so after their water had broken? And if the plane had been told she wouldn’t had been allowed on the flight.
yes Dyno agree , that was my point , he should hav waited like any sensible finance person would to understand what economy is doing and why RBA thought about th drop
727 Rx asks:
Can Malcolm keep both balls in the air at the same time(?)
The answer is Yes, if he stands on his head. Can’t say the same about Costello.
Ron at 733,
While Turnbull fluffs his lines Costello smirks and lines his undies.
touche Rx , perhaps with a more special smirk than normal
I can just imagine in tomorrow QT, a real killer question from my local member, Mr. Nelson:
“Mr. speaker, my question is to the PM. Can the PM please explain to the people of Australia, why 9 months into the office, the inflation is at a 15 month low, current account deficit at a 3 year low and the economists are predicting that there are likely to be 4 interest cuts in the next 12 months, starting with one tomorrow. Not to mention the $22B surplus”.
Come-on Mr. Rudd, please explain yourself and see how you twist yourself out of this jam.
Rx, Dario, Ron
I think we are all agreed on Turnbull: he is not up to running the economy. He never was. He is a smart lawyer and a deal maker. That was the world he worked in and was very succesful in. But I doubt he’s ever done any economic analysis. Without treasury and finance experts to brief him and make him look good, he will struggle.
All this economic news actualy underlines that the budget strategy was essentialy correct: don’t spend too much till inflation is under control, wait till it is trending down, and then you can deliver on social reforms in the pre-election budget. Best strategy for Labor, and best for the nation too. It should get Labor reelected. The relief to mortgagees from reducing interest rates will far outweigh the benefits of any tax cut on petrol. Labor focused on the main game (inflation/interest rates) and ignored the distractions (tax on fuel prices which are unstable anyway). That will show Labor has deliverd on a core promise (focusing on teh cost of living).
Meanwhile the coalitions blocking stunts in the Senate on budget revenue measures have done their reputation as economic managers no good at all.
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