Newspoll: 56-44

The Australian reports that Labor’s lead in this fortnight’s Newspoll is down slightly from 57-43 to 56-44. Kevin Rudd is down three points as preferred leader to 65 per cent while Brendan Nelson is up two to 14 per cent.

The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows no change in Labor’s long-standing 58-42 lead. Also featured is a national-level question on state voting intention which suggests collective primary vote support for the state Labor governments is 7 per cent lower than for federal Labor (40 per cent compared with 47 per cent), although Coalition support is only 3 per cent higher (38 per cent compared with 35 per cent). Further questions involve federal Labor’s performance on various individual issues, and attitudes to the balance of power in the Senate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

745 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44”

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  1. [No more hollow threats from Barnaby about crossing the floor]

    I wouldn’t be so sure. If just Mr X or Mr FF decide to oppose something then Baraby’s vote could be worth something…

  2. Mr X has already demonstrated he is an attention seeker lightweight , so Barnaby’s time in limelight may not be finished

    Wonder what Labor/Liberal primary vote movements ar in latest poll , ‘oz’ article doe not say

  3. OHHH DEAR!!!, Rudd’s finished, he’s on the way out, –at least that was what Turnbull was saying today, though to give the guy a break he wouldn’t have seen this poll then, looks like this is one long honeymoon or perhaps a settled happy marriage, whoever takes over the leadership from Nelson is going to have a hell of a job to dislodge Rudd be it Costello or Turnbull.

  4. Judy , if you get a chance , see a replay of tonite’s Four Corners on Turnbull for humour (replayed think Wednesday nites)

    Here was Tunbull trying to do a Liberal TV add , and he kept forgetting his lines , and unbeknown to our Malcolm th camera was still going and going , and he kept getting more and more cranky and contankerous & kept spitting th dummy at himself , with camera rolling

    (Labor probably hav numerous copies made of it tonite)

  5. So now (thanks to Four Corners) we now have yet another reason why the Libs don’t want Turnbull in the Leadership. It will not look good to have the leader of the opposition having to face the federal court in a corruption lawsuit leading up to the next election…

  6. “…the chances of Kevin Rudd being re-elected look increasingly remote based on this latest Newspoll, exclusive to The Australian.”

    Amazing! The evidence of the polls you would think points to anything but a Rudd loss at the next election. It certainly doesn’t support a view that Rudd’s chances of being re-elected are increasingly ‘remote’.

    Truly bizarre – and really bit sad, you almost feel sorry for them, they miss their dad so much they are beginning to plead. Maybe they truly believe what they write or, is it just a subconscious call for help. Maybe they should click their heals together and say ‘there is no place like home’ so they might join us in 2008.

    I guess with the failure of Howard to provide any kind of successor the Liberal supporters are left with trying to spoil govt in the Senate. They certainly have a couple of willing naive fools happy to be used in a trade a bit of short term grandstanding.

  7. Woops – somebody made up a pretend quote from the oz – a pretend quote

    “Despite two weeks of damaging speculation about the Liberal leadership, Kevin Rudd has been unable to make any headway in the most recent Newspoll with the result being within the MOE. Nelson’s approval rating seems to be the only factor keeping the Labor government’s nose in front of the Coalition. With renewed speculation that highly-fancied and electorally-popular Peter Costello will be drafted for the Liberal Party leadership in a bloodless coup, the chances of Kevin Rudd being re-elected look increasingly remote based on this latest Newspoll, exclusive to The Australian.”

    OK so they haven’t gotten that desperate.

    Now, back to Mary Pickford.

  8. 3 blogers anti American quotes tonite ,

    ‘Please don’t try to draw me into that game , before I take your prejudiced view on the situation , you’re like a broken record’

    Of course these were to th messenger , because there US anti arguement was exposed as poor Fortunately Kevin07 and Labor policy is firmly committed to US alliance , and to posters earlier today who claimed ANZUS was just a ‘consult only with no defence committment , a quote from ANZUS protects this Countrys sovereignty

    Article IV
    ‘Each Party recognizes that an armed attack in the Pacific Area on any of the Parties would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common danger in accordance with its constitutional processes.’ which requires to be read in context of th total ANZUS Treaty

    Whitlam , Hawke , Keating and Rudd (as hav all there Defense Ministers) hav all taken this as a firm committment to defend ‘oz’ not only publicly , but in th first three’s cases , there biographies

  9. Last 6 Newspolls show only one constant , Libs/Nats at 38% primary vote , which is massive landslide teritory for Labor There vote has not moved at all

    Because Newspolls variances between th 6 Polls have been all with Labor vs Green vs ‘Others’ vote percentages , suggests there is not even anything positive in th Polls for them to hope for presently

  10. Shanigans headline “Coalition in holding pattern”….of landslide defeat , my words

    “The polling is basically a bit better than it was at its WORST for the Coalition, but shows no sign of lifting.”

    ‘worst’ was 6 polls ago showwing a rout , all 5 polls since show a landslide

    “The Liberals are FLATLINING on a two-party-preferred vote that would see them demolished at an election”

    Thats 3/4 way down th article , “flatlining” sounds like you were drowning 20 metres down a few months ago , and ar still there

    Surprisingly in summary , Shanigans has officially run th bus over Nelson…after everyone else has

  11. More exlibs dessert the Pineapple Party sinking ship.

    [In his letter, Mr Taylor said the merger “smacks heavily of a Nationals takeover in Queensland, irrespective of all the warm, cuddly public pronouncements”. He said there had been inadequate comprehension that the Queensland Nationals were “bedfellows of ultra-right conservatives and agrarian socialism”.

    “As a federal MP for 11 years in a rural/regional seat, I think I am better informed than most in our party on what these National elements are really after,” Mr Taylor wrote. “The LNP will need to be more than a name change if it is to oust Anna Bligh and Kevin Rudd.”

    Mr Hewitt said that as an honorary life member of the Liberals, he was not required to pay annual fees, but he had decided to have no involvement with the LNP: “I am very disappointed and angry about what has become of the Liberal Party in this state.”],25197,24242070-5006786,00.html

  12. The most interesting point I found in Shanahan’s pieces was that he now seems to doubt that Costello will ride in like a white knight and assume leadership of the Liberal Party. It was only a few weeks ago that he had this big spread in the Weekend Australian hinting that Costello was sure to be available when the Party called him. When this is coupled with people like Bishop, Downer and even Abbott saying kind words about Turnbull on the Four Corners program, it suggests some Liberal power brokers have accepted the reality of a Turnbull ascendancy.

  13. Let’s not forget that the Labor Newspoll 2PP whittled down to 52% by the time the 2007 election was held. And let’s also not forget the Howard government spent it’s time in 50/50 territory, a few either way, and let’s also not forget that Howard had a hard time getting close to Keating on Preferred PM when in opposition. There is a long way to go in the polls before the Liberals can even be considered competitive – something Labor had been for 11 years in opposition.

    There’s nothing to suggest Rudd’s time will be any shorter than Howard’s. Quite the reverse.

  14. Masterclass poll.

    When’s the next Liberal Party room meeting? Today?

    I give Nelson two weeks.

    All of this waiting–for–Costello–the–Saviour–in–the–rain garbage isn’t helping matters much for the Libs.

  15. Observing the Olympic team and our Prime Minister greeting them. Did we actually have an election in November last year? Has anything actually changed in this country?

  16. What a hoot! By constantly discussing Costello and the Liberal leadership, it turns out that Shanahan is actually a labour spinmeister.

    From today’s Australian:

    Exhibit A: Shanahan has yet another article mentioning Costello and the Liberal leadership.

    Exhibit B: From a particularly condescending part of the editorial:

    ‘Like some quoted in Cut and Paste yesterday, those swallowing the line that Mr Costello is discussing his future with no one are making big assumptions. They are also dancing, perhaps inadvertantly, to the tune of labor’s spinmeisters, whose job it is to keep Coalition leadership speculation on the boil.’

    Let’s apply Kerr’s fact, balance and nuance test.

    1. nuance: A clever nuance here: the issue isn’t the constant speculation by the Australian on the Liberal leadership. The issue is that some people are making big assumptions that Costello is not talking to anybody about it. The nuanced messages are that The Australian knows everything; others are perhaps inadvertantly dopey; and labour is bad.
    2. balance: There are only labour spinmeisters at work on the Liberal leadership. Liberal spinmeisters are not mentioned. The balanced message here is that Labour is bad. Liberal is good.
    3. fact: Shanahan, by keeping the Costello leadership speculation going, is a Labour Spinmeister. The fact here appears to be that by twisting the truth and by not checking left hand and right hand, The Australian has met its usual high standards of MSM professionalism.

  17. The real game started this week in the Senate. Nothing destabilized Paul Keating’s government in 1993 as much as the opposition to elements of his budget by the Senate. The “unrepresentative swill” blocked, obstructed and played populist politics for endless months. any sense of a coherent government vision seemed to evaporate. Looking after special interests was also the order of the day.
    The farce begins again. What do promises not to block Supply mean if minor parties or independents can knock off billions from the budget bottom-line?

  18. Sure enough, the Greens TOR is to get fresh water into those lakes. Policy implication for the Greens: Let’s go for the high-profile icon and not the system.

    Labour wants to broaden the TOR (me wrong, yesterday) but the implication may be that it wants to delay an outcome. I’m not sure why they would want to delay an outcome.

    I do hope the representative swill will get around to enquiring into the whole rotten shebang.

  19. Last night, Media Watch covered the spat between the Curious Snail and the Brisbane Lord Mayor (his office anyway). The Snail has been displaying a bias against the Lord Mayor for some time now.

    Given that and The Australian’s behaviour, I can only conclude that there is an inverse relationship between the bias of newspapers and any targetted electoral outcome. 😉

  20. “What do promises not to block Supply mean if minor parties or independents can knock off billions from the budget bottom-line?”

    Means Mr X , Greens Party & FF Fielding chase cheap headlines & ar economicaly irresponsible

    Paul Keating correctly called them “unrepresentative swill” , a term that has annoyed them & there suporters ever since , probably more for its pin point accuracy

  21. [Paul Keating correctly called them “unrepresentative swill” , a term that has annoyed them & there suporters ever since , probably more for its pin point accuracy]

    Keating’s been gone for 12 years ffs

  22. Rudd is going to use his press club address to flesh out his vision of what he wants to do in the next few years and where he want’s to take us, if that strikes a chord with Joe Public then the senate will balk him at their peril, the voters wont take too kindly to good visions being thwarted.

  23. Greens Party whinged Kevin07 instead should hav been camped on Murray River checking its levels , and th Liberals complained 4 Corners should have been rescheduled so Malcolm could be there

  24. I know we normally don’t carry over topics from previous threads but there was a fascinating series of comments from Antony Green on the possibility of ETS being a DD bill. It’s much more complicated than I thought.

    Antony Green said;

    Carbon trading may not be a good double dissolution bill. It would require delegated regulations that the Senate could disallow. The lesson of the Australia Card debate in 1987 is that even if you have the numbers to use the double dissolution path to pass legislation, it would be useless if the Senate would continue to be bloody-minded and simply disallow any regulations under the legislation. The legislation for carbon trading would be hard enough to draft, without drafting it to survive a double dissolution.

    Though, on second thoughts, it depends on how complex the regulations are. The Senate can allow or disallow regulations, but it can’t disentangle the bits it doesn’t like. There was a case some time ago where the Senate tried to disallow certain changes to air traffic regulations, but the consequence would have been to disallow all regulation of air space and the Senate calmed down.

    The Australia Card was stopped because the bill gave the minister the power to issue a regulation on when the use of the card was to come into force. That was a very easy regulation to disallow.

    I’m sure if the carbon trading scheme does end up going through a double dissolution, they’ll make the regulations as intertwined as possible.

    To be honest, I don’t think the Senate would use its regulations power to block carbon trading. The government is clearly angling to come to some arrangement with the opposition on the issue. Even if the next election gives the Greens the sole balance of power, I don’t think Labor will budge from its position. Labor will do a deal with the Coalition, or put the Greens in a pincer by saying vote for our bill or you get nothing, and then blame the Greens if the bill doesn’t go through.

    Back in 1993, the 2 WA Greens did that to Labor on the Mabo bill. A bill had to go through to create a legal framework for Native Title, and the 2 WA Senators forced Labor to their position. The position is reversed on carbon trading, because there is no legal framework without the legislation. If Labor can’t do a deal with the Coalition, Labor can play hard ball with the Greens by saying its vote for Labor’s bill or you have nothing. That’s not to say the Greens aren’t justified in trying to toughen up the legislation when it eventually appears, and it is certainly in line with the mandate the Greens have received from the electorate, but even with the sole balance of power, they won’t have a strong bargaining position.

  25. [Greens Party whinged Kevin07 instead should hav been camped on Murray River checking its levels]

    Yes, I’m sure he has the expertise for that. Who needs the CSIRO when you’ve got a PM to go around the waterways collecting data…

  26. 11
    Dario Says:
    hahahahaha hook, line and sinker

    In fairness to Mr Paine, that bit of parody was only distinguishable as such due to the context in which it appeared. Mr Shanahan could have easily written it. Sometimes reality is its own parody.

    Boerwar Says:
    Let’s apply Kerr’s fact, balance and nuance test.

    I can see that becoming a new meme for the online satirists.

    ‘The Kerr-FBN Test’

  27. It’s getting a bit nasty at the DNC in Denver and it’s not all Obama-Clinton fighting. The Democrats are handing out nice, shiny blue badges with the phrase “Ask Me How Many Houses I Own” on it.


  28. What about oiliness Obama owning his 1.9 million home , amongst others , a home acording to official Court documents was partly financed by his 20 year mate Rezko , since convicted of propery fraud

    A typical north east Liberal elite , double standards

  29. Having a obstructionist Senate makes government difficult and thats what the Liberal party hope to do. The Liberals are like a person whose imaginary partner has cheated – they want to kill them both off thorugh spite. And the king of spite would have to be Minchin and co.

    I wonder how long it has been since the Liberal party has had the well being of Australian and Australians as its reason for being?

    I wonder if Rudd would go to a DD if it looked likely he could gain a bunch more HOR seats from the Liberals? He might not improve the Senate position but further decimation of the Liberals in the HOR would be tempting to at least teach them a lesson. Plus the Liberals are in sore need of a thrashing.

  30. “Well the Federal Conservatives have proved one thing this year: They will say and do anything to cling to Opposition.”

    Actualy Kevin07 has audited Murray River Basin Commission audited figures data on Murray River , but Greens & Liberal Senators yesterday cynically joined forses pretending those figures do not even exist ,….. in a sham ‘proposal’ of an ambulance chasing headline seeking to st.ff potential future of Murray River for there own Liberals & Greens short term political gain

    These environmentel vandals Senators ignore Rudd’s responsible approach , and ar just interested in getting votes
    yes , even after 12 years PK’s comment “unrepresentative swill” still strikes with accuracy

  31. TP

    From what I can gather from reading William and Antony’s comments about the Senate, it is impossible to predict with any accuracy what would happen to the balance of power in a DD.

    Also from Antony’s comments on a ETS DD, I think we could tell from the ETS legislation whether it has been drafted with a DD in mind. (When I say we, I mean someone who knows something about these things who would kindly tell us).

  32. Flaneur,it would be interesting to know where the Lord Mayor has been spending his advertising budget and if that could possibly explain this little spat.

  33. Everyone predicted this but it’s still sad that we were right. White supremacists were planning to assassinate Obama during his acceptance speech from 750m. Is that possible? Are any rifles that accurate?

    And Ron, I’m not even going to make a joke about there being no word yet about whether Hillary financed the operation.

    Plot to Kill Obama: Shoot From High Vantage Point

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