Newspoll: 57-43

The Australian reports that Newspoll has produced its second successive result of 57-43 in Labor’s favour. The Prime Minister’s approval rating is up two points to 68 per cent, while Brendan Nelson’s preferred leader rating is down two points to 12 per cent. More to follow.

We also have the weekly Essential Research survey showing Labor’s lead steady on 58-42. Also featured are questions on issues deemed important in determining vote choice, economic conditions, interest rates and China’s human rights record. The first of these provides at least some good news for the Coalition if you know where to look: Labor’s core strengths of health and education are found to have fallen in importance since January, while economic management and taxation are up (though so is environment). There is also an echo of the Gippsland by-election in the substantial increase on “Australian jobs and the protection of local industries”.

UPDATE: Newspoll graphic here. Brendan Nelson’s disapproval rating up from 42 per cent to 48 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

969 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43”

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  1. Ron @ 862 –

    Condi was shameful appeasement ‘messenger’ ,

    I think you’re being too hard on her. She was exceeding her job description which appears to consist solely of:

    1) Fly somewhere
    2) Wave hello from top of aircraft steps
    3) get into limo and disappear for a few days (do they stick her in a cupboard I wonder)
    4) Reappear at top of aircraft step waving goodbye
    5) Disappear into the wild blue…
    6) Gaze adoringly at her husband (Oops) President whenever in his presence
    7) Occasionally play piano (tolerably well…just)
    8) Even less often tell everyone who cares (i.e: Lexy) that Alexander Downer is a foreign policy geniarse (sic)

    Mind you, it’s an improvement on her predecessor whose main job seemed to be telling dirty great big whoppers at the UN while being the only member of the Cabinet silly enough to actually believe they were true.

  3. Dale
    Good to see someone who has read the DLP website, and is impressed enough to join up as a member.
    It fills me with hope that there are enough decent Australians out there who believe in traditional Labour values, and the rights of those who are unable to speak for themselves(I.E the unborn, and the frail aged, and disabled).
    It augers well for the DLP that if it stays on message and sticks to it principles it will gain the votes of people of principle.
    The DLP has always, (since the split) been known as a party of principle.

  7. goanna @ 903

    Quite right too. But you should provide the full range of the DLP’s support for people without a voice, which included the voteless conscripts who were sent to their useless deaths in Vietnam. Yet another traditional labour value upheld?

  8. How do you explain the dismal performance of India, Pop: 1.13 Billion. Only 1 Gold in Shooting – Men’s 10m Air Rifle. Playing too much cricket? Or maybe it’s the shackle of its social and religious divides.

  9. The Finnigans @ 908

    All the sport/advertising/gambling rupees are in cricket already. India will shine in the Olympics when 20:20 is added to the games at the expense of beach volleyball.

  11. GG @ 910

    LOL

    The Olympics are clearly ossifying; so old hat. Some other suggestions for new events:

    rubber bullet firing; last team with a member still standing wins gold and so on.

    stun gun firing; same rules. Silver could go the last person to begin screaming. Some work needed here.

    riot gas firing; might have to change the rules; losers could be the first to pass out, or the first to have simultaneous exudations of snot and tears.

    waterboarding; gold could go to the last person to confess to anything at all.

    baton/lathi charge; could include police club of choice. Two teams of, say, 20 club bearers could go at each other until one team or the other cries uncle or until only one team has someone left standing. Wildcard could be random journos and points either added or deducted for felling journos, depending on the degree of press freedom in the competing nations.

  13. “The DLP has always, (since the split) been KNOWN as a party of principle”

    Yep , its Leader Vince Gair desserted Party for a dumb Irish job that Gough offered
    Yep , DLP voted for Vietnam conscription……and war
    Yep , DLP sold out workers by ALWAYS preferencing Liberal Party
    Yep , DLP has since 1955 been th Party of business supporters (Liberals) and we know how much principal business has
    .
    Actualy , Miss “please explain” got 600% more votes than th DLP Now when
    Pauline beats you so easily , ya sure know voters think you’ve principals

  14. #911 – I thought Ethnic Cleansing has been a very popular sport for the last 30 years or so. Should be added to the Olympics.

  15. Boerwar – Bit too pompous at the moment. Let’s see how he runs a real ministry. Amazing that he is considered a PM in waiting on the strength of an mediocre performance running a union in long term decline mostly notable for lots of pr for himself.

    GG – No but the popularity is brittle, the substance of the ETS will be telling. He’s a bit like the doctor who tells the patient this is a v.serious condition and then gives the patient an aspirin – the patient tends to lose respect for the doctor over time.

    GB – Try to be civil, I am entitled to my opinion.

  16. The Finnigans @ 914

    Excellent point. A bit of technical difficulty in that it would be hard to find unbiased judges. However, the rules could be arranged in the following way:

    1. There is only one rule. Anything at all is allowed, including killing the judges.

    2. The winner of the ethnic cleansing event is the team that has done such a good job of it that no-one (judges, bystanders, friends, relatives, investors, the press, the international community, the big powers blocs, the UN et cetera, et cetera) is prepared to argue with their claim on the gold medal.

    Which brings me to Gori… looking uncannily empty tonight on the telly news, and not much of a squeak from anybody about it, although George was mumbling something into the mikes and Condi was grinning inanely in support. Is someone practising for the New Olympics?

  17. ESJ,

    I see your point.

    Just like the Liberal Leadership. You say it is a very serious position and give it to Nelson. The voters have tended to lose respect for the Doctor after awhile.

  19. No question GG, Nelson hasnt worked he has crumbled in the position. The Liberals of course heave to the school prefect/ bully model of leadership. The “firm smack” of leadership as Francis Urqhart called it in House of Cards.

  21. There used to be an excellent childrens’ book which featured the question:

    ‘Where’s Wally?’

    Does anybody know where he is?

  22. Excuse me but the UN is clearly the best team of judges for an “ethnic cleansing” Olympic event. They have been spectators at all the best “ethnic cleansing” events in modern history. They are completely impartial as they NEVER give a sh!t what happens to anyone other than their peacekeepers.

  24. Bw-

    I think Gillard will be the next Labor PM assuming Rudd wins re-election. If not maybe the younger tier of Cabinet ministers and whoever emerges preeminent from that scrum will lead.

    Given that there is no strong Number 2 because of the weakness of Swan it will be one of the more interesting dynamics.

  25. Yes Diogenes,

    I recall Sergio Di Mello of blessed memory was called “Serbio” by the citizens of Sarajevo because of his even handed approach.

  26. ESJ

    Gillard seems to have scrubbed up pretty well since the election, and sounds like she has had some elocution lessons. She has had 50 days of acting PM without upsetting the horses, and seems to be a reasonably competent media and parliamentary performer. The mooted tensions between her and Rudd do not seem to be very close to the surface.

    I agree that Swan is not going to be a leadership threat, which, if he himself believes it to be true, might actually be useful in team balance and stability.

    The big question cf Gillard seems to me to be whether she will be able to overcome being painted as a leftie and how her more conservative colleagues would deal with the same issue. I have no idea about how effective she is as a team player.

  27. Which is why I support McCain’s proposal for a League of Democracies to do the job the UN was supposed to do but has never been able to do because of (a) great power veto in the Security Council and (b) corrupt bureaucracy full of incompetent nominees of Third World despots. In the current context, a UN without Chinese and Russian vetoes, able to beat up on Burma, Zimbabwe, Sudan etc. Another good reason why I’m voting for McCain.

  28. MayoFeral

    #901
    Ron @ 862 –
    “Condi was shameful appeasement ‘messenger’ ”
    I think you’re being too hard on her. She was exceeding her job description..

    thanks MayoFeral , appreciate you pointing out my error of overstating her position , perhaps I should hav said Condi was shameful appeasement ‘valet’ !!

    Putin strikes me as a clever but ruthless poker player , he assessed (corectly) Bush/Cheney were bullies against weak Countrys & has won bigtime , and Putin now also has benefit of also knowing now , how Obama and McCain (differently) will respond to a crisis Actualy in FA ticker terms even B grade actor Ronald Reagan is looking good

    Meanwhile , I notice Georgia slowly slips down USA news reporting importance , and soon may disappear

  29. Diogenes @ 922

    A bit harsh, perhaps, but heading in the right general direction. Perhaps one of the UN committees could have its terms of reference extended somewhat? I seem to recall the the Human Rights Committee had Libya as Chair there for a while. Inspired choice. With that sort of leadership, experience and technical expertise, you could probably have confidence that some sort of reasonable gold medal decision could be bodgied up.

  31. Adam

    I completely agree about the problems of the UN. Liberal democracies have opted out of peacekeeping for a variety of reasons. The big question is how many democracies would join McCain in a League of Democracies.

    How would you and the fellow ‘bludgers feel about joining McCain in a League of Democracy ❓

    Despite the large number of contributors, the greatest burden continues to be borne by a core group of developing countries. The 10 main troop-contributing countries to UN peacekeeping operations as of March 2007 were Pakistan (10,173), Bangladesh (9,675), India (9,471), Nepal (3,626), Jordan (3,564), Uruguay (2,583), Italy (2,539), Ghana, Nigeria and France.

  32. It exists mostly in the publications of the neocon think-tanks everyone here despises so much. The main obstacles would of course be the gutlessness of western European politicians, who have to respond to electorates conditioned by generations of anti-Americanism of the kind that dominates this and most other playgrounds of the lumpen intelligentsia, and the pacifist Japanese constitution. But we have to start somewhere. We can’t go on with this situation where everyone sheds crocodile tears over Srebrenica and Rwanda and Darfur, but no-one is willing to do anything about them except the despised Americans, who then get accused of imperialism if they do anything, as happened in Somalia.

    Here’s what McCain said: http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8OR8DTG0&show_article=1&cat=0
    Here’s a discussion: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/05/AR2007080501056_pf.html

  34. McCain and Lieberman’s foreign policy is meant to be heavily influenced by Robert Kagan, who argued that liberal democracies have become spectators in most of the defining events in the world and need to start shaping history instead. His book is “The Return of History and the End of Dreams”.

    In fairness to Obama, I should add that his foreign policy on genocide is based on Samantha Power’s work (she famously referred to Hillary as a monster) which was published as “A Problem from Hell”. She also advocates the US taking a much more interventionist role in the world’s conflicts.

  35. Principles are far more important than votes. To many parties ignore their principles to chase votes. This comes back to bite them later.
    Think Democrates, a party of no principles. Their only principle was to chase anybodys vote by appearing to appeal to everybody, and finished up appealing to virtually nobody.
    In contrast the DLP have never wavered in their support for the most basic right of all, the right to life, a right from which all other rights spring.
    Sure, this does not appeal to the majority of voters, who have their own seperate needs they want addressed. But at least DLP voters know that their party will not weaken on this most basic right. Peter Kavanagh DLP has shown he will support the most defenceless in Victorian society, by leading the charge against the Bills for Euthensia, and Abortion in the Upper House in Victoria.
    Oh for more DLP members like Peter Kavanagh

  36. Diogenoski

    What oiliness writes down on an internet site means nothing , first crisis Georgia , decion needed , but oiliness there’s zero response , then after days oiliness says both ar to blame , then after more days Bush makes some lame comments so then oiliness is all th way with lame Bush’s approach….so those nice pretty words on genocide etc on an internet site just fluff for rusted on

  37. There was also a Jewish Wehrmacht officer who played a role in getting the Lubavitcher Rebbe out of Ukraine. There was a book about him a few years ago which I didn’t buy, sadly, and now I don’t recall his name. Apparently Hitler knew he was Jewish – or maybe half-Jewish – but gave him a certificate saying he wasn’t.

  39. Ronster

    Will you be supporting the Ruddster joining a League of Democracies if McCain wins?

    ( BTW Sarkovy, Brown and Merkel have made positive noises according to Macca. I’d be surprised if Harper didn’t say Yes. )

  40. Who would be members of League of Democracys , Europeans ar out ( the gutlessness of western European politicians) , Japan is out (the pacifist Japanese constitution , China and Russia ar out

    Anti americanism as you call it is more like cynicism and regard of USA as hypocrites , decades of US (most powerful military & economic power on earth) preaching democracy and values on one hand , but generally being selective with its self interst amounting to gross hypocracy

    Problem with USA image of hypocracy , was not that USA went after th despotic Saddam (where there is oil) , but that USA did not for decades go after FAR worse Despots killing far more people (but in countrys where ther was no oil or USA sef interest)….list of such murderous despots ar endless

    Most sensible people want USA to act in such areas and they hav sat idly by as millions hav died Obviously people recognise without USA , they may be under whip hand of an invading despot , but that does not justify there hypocracy or selfish selective self interest , nor firm criticism of it so calling it simply anti american is a red herring

  41. Ron,

    I do not accept your summation of the DLP at all. It is hardly surprising that a party formed by good Labor men and women expelled from the ALP when the left wing controlled it would return the favour by preferencing against the people who expelled them in the hope that Labor would eventually reform, which it did.

    The current DLP preferenced several Labor candidates ahead of the Liberals in the last Commonwealth election and the last Victorian election.

    The DLP was never a party of business and often voted with the ALP in the Senate. Between 1965 and 1967, the DLP voted with the Coalition 48.95 per cent of the time, with Labor 35.79 per cent of the time and against both groups 12.10 per cent of the time. In the remaining votes, the DLP senators split or were absent. (Malcolm Mackerras, The Australian Senate1965-1967: Who Held Control, APSA, 1968).

    DLP policies such as support for a guaranteed annual income, trade unions, conservation, prison reform, electoral reform and the like are of the left. The DLP’s opposition to the Melbourne freeway network in 1970 was years in front of the Greens – obviously, given that they had not come into existence.

    It is sad that, unlike South Korea and Taiwan, South Vietnam did not get to be a prosperous democracy but remains under communist tyranny to this day.

    You may not like the DLP’s principles, but it had them. It was founded on principle. Otherwise those who formed it would have caved in to the ALP’s controllers in 19555 in order to keep their seats.

  43. Adam,

    I believe it was also an SS officer who warned the Danes that the Jews were about to rounded up, thus allowing almost all of them to be spirited out of the country in one of the most amazing rescues of World War 2. And a Japanese diplomatic official was instrumental in saving many other Jews, who ended up safe in Japan for the duration of the war. The world is a strange place.

  50. Chris

    ‘It is hardly surprising that a party formed …..would return the favour by preferencing against the people who expelled them in the HOPE that Labor would eventually reform’

    DLP unprincipled preferences to Liberals (Party mainly of ‘business’)for 20 years , against Labor Party th working mans , destroy any semblance of credibility DLP cared about workers Proof was in preferncing

    Hell , even after Gough took over , DLP porefernced against Labor in 1969 WORSE DLP prefeenced AGAINST Gough and FOR McMahon in 1972 and 1974

    there were NO ‘reform’ to Labor Party after 1970 at latest , so 1972 and 1974 elections at th minimum , of DLP preferencing against Gough destroy your argument

    Its noe all written in history per AEC records , DLP preferenced Liberal Party and DLP will wear it

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