WA election minus 28 days

• Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times reports that the Liberal internal polling that persuaded Troy Buswell to go showed that even with Buswell as leader the party would have retained Bunbury (Liberal-held but notionally Labor post-redistribution) and won the notionally knife-edge new eastern suburbs seat of Kalamunda. However, they were trailing slightly in the must-win seats of Albany (Labor-held but now notionally Liberal) and Kingsley (northern suburbs, Labor-held, notionally line-ball). A report from Robert Taylor of The West Australian suggests the poll showed them winning all four if Barnett was leader, by a margin of 60-40 in Bunbury. However, Taylor also reports Labor polling is believed to give them a “nice buffer”.

• Independent Churchlands MP Liz Constable has been included in the new shadow cabinet, with the public sector management and government accountability portfolios: smartly chosen in the context of an election campaign that will emphasise Brian Burke and ministerial sackings, but potentially very dangerous thereafter. The formerly estranged Rob Johnson and Graham Jacobs (members for Hillarys and Roe, with the latter set to contest the new seat of Eyre) are back on the board.

• It now seems likely the Liberals will be unable to accommodate Deidre Willmott, the Chamber of Commerce and Industry policy adviser who had to abandon Cottesloe so Colin Barnett could shelve his retirement plans. This leaves the Liberals with a grand total of four female lower house candidates out of the 43 nominated so far: Liza Harvey in the marginal Liberal new northern suburbs seat of Scarborough, Andrea Mitchell and Milly Zuvella in Kingsley and Joondalup further north (respectively line-ball and marginal Labor) and Ruth Webb-Smith in long-shot Kimberley.

• Today’s West Australian reports that outgoing Carine MP Katie Hodson-Thomas is ruing her decision to retire, made on the day Troy Buswell became leader. Hodson-Thomas complained Buswell had made “inappropriate comments” to her in front of male colleagues.

• The West Australian’s Gary Adshead reports that Sue Walker, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Nedlands, is yet to have nominated for the election, prompting speculation she was “throwing in the towel”. Walker responded by telling Adshead that a man had come into her electorate office to say her “life was in danger”, but that “providing there’s nothing that stands between me and the close of nominations, I intend to nominate”.

• Alan Carpenter has announced a re-elected Labor government will spend $160 million rebuilding Albany Regional Hospital, after earlier committing only to a $55 million redevelopment. Albany was won by Labor in 2001 and retained by a 1.4 per cent margin in 2005, but the one-vote one-value redistribution has turned it into a 2.3 per cent Liberal seat by expanding it into rural areas beyond the city limits.

• In other policy news, the Kimberley canal is officially off the agenda of a first-term Liberal government. Word is that the once-bitten twice-shy Barnett will pursue a “small target” strategy.

• If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can my read quick overview from today’s email. The upshot is that the Liberals are a better chance than the $4.25 being offered by Centrebet suggests.

UPDATE (9/8/08): The Sunday Times reports Labor polling conducted after the Liberal leadership change shows Labor leading 56-44 in the new seat of Jandakot, which has a notional Labor margin of 3.6 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

340 comments on “WA election minus 28 days”

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  3. Rudd’s visit was covered heavily yesterday (well, third on the ABC bulletin behind the Lympics and Georgia)

    Colin Barnett did not appear once in the bulletin.

    Peter Kennedy did a good sketch piece about whether Federal Leaders helped or hindered State campaigns – Gallop had insisted that Latham stay well away, Carpenter clearly can not get enough of Rudd.

    This of course led to whether Nelson would make an appearance. He has said that he is eager to come west, but no date has been set.

    Kennedy does a daily “Campaign Diary” on the ABC, but since it is broadcast on widescreen, and I have an old narrow telly, it just says “Pain Diary” on my set. Quite

  5. I was at Parliament House yesterday afternoon and noticed Barnett wandering around on his own for about 15 – 20 minutes. Just meandering around looking lost all on his own.

    He even said hello.

  6. [Barnett has had no tv ads yet as far as I can see. Carps is wall to wall.]

    Exactly, the Libs have said theirs will start after the Olympics , Barnett find’s Carp’s ads “sppoky” – is that because they show what the Govt has done, so far and what they will do for the future .

  7. all the evidence above seems to suggest that Carpenter really has caught the Libs napping.

    he’s had a free week to roll out all his pork-filled goodies – rail, hospitals, Gorgon expansion etc, and tehe Libs have yet to roll out any policy, except for stumbling over Sunday trading and Uranium.

    Since the Libs are so difficult to find, and don’t have much to say, The West have had to do their job for them, but to date have only landed one glove on the Govt with Eric Ripper’s Lloyd’s gaff.

    I would be interested to know what is happening at constituency level – if the Libs can’t fund advertising, and are so disorganized at cabinet level, they must really be finding it difficult getting out onto the doorsteps

  8. [I would be interested to know what is happening at constituency level – if the Libs can’t fund advertising, and are so disorganized at cabinet level, they must really be finding it difficult getting out onto the doorsteps]

    They only appointed the new Party director a few weeks ago if I recall correctly, and their so called Howard Spinmeister has still to arrive in the state.

    Re local campaigns, the local Lib candidate has sent a letter with a postal vote application form which states only one local issue – Hoons and Crime – the same strategy used at the last federal poll, and the letter doesn’t even state the date of the election, even though it was dated 10th August.

  9. on the Uranium question, it is only a matter of time before Australia changes its policy. It has always been a matter of which party blinked first.

    I had the impression that Howard was laying the foundations for a policy change in the months before he left. Rudd has been quiet on the subject, but he is probably waiting for the dust to settle on the emissions trading fandango, and then hoping that he can use Kyoto to sell nuclear as more green than fossil fuel.

    like it or not, the whole world is turning to nuclear. Sarkozy just toured North Africa and the Middle East peddling French nuclear power stations to Arabs

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7185660.stm

    if the oil rich Saudis and Libyans are thinking about it, then there is going to be a rapid domino effect in demand for nuclear. Even if Australia stays with coal and gas for the near future, there is going to be a lot of pressure to start mining.

    imagine that – selling uranium to arabs. I want a solid gold Mercedes, please.

  10. Latest Betting.

    [Betting agencies have tipped the Labor Party to win the State election.

    Lasseters Sportsbook had Labor ahead at $1.20, with the Liberal Party — led by Colin Barnett — listed at $4.25.

    Sportingbet Australia named Labor the short-priced favourite at $1.18 because the Liberals were returning the highest price in the country at $4.40.

    “It’s an obvious tactic from Alan Carpenter and the Labor Party to capitalise on the turmoil surrounding the Liberals and the departure of Troy Buswell,” Gerard Daffy, from Lasseters, said.

    Centrebet recorded minimal changes after Mr Barnett’s return to the Liberal leadership and the Premier’s surprise election announcement, with the ALP at a consistent $1.18 and the Liberals at $4.25.]

    http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=91332

  11. Hmm, Nationals could hold Blance Of Power.

    [Curtin University’s Harry Phillips says that for the National’s to achieve that goal, Labor would need to lose at least six seats and the Nationals would have to retain three.

    Dr Phillips says the Nationals have campaigned well and the party should win the seats of Wagin, Blackwood-Stirling and Central Wheatbelt.

    “It [ the Nationals] hasn’t been associated with any CCC [ Corruption and Crime Commission] derogatory findings,” he said.

    “It’s got all its preselections in place. It’s got key policies and I think it’s had very good publicity with a balance of youth and seniority.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/14/2334745.htm

  12. Beazley predicts a “Cliffhanger”

    [However, these are hard times for long-standing incumbents. Though many new seats have been created, many are only notionally Labor with no sitting members. If the Liberals can’t win back in large seats in Albany, Geraldton and Collie-Preston then they probably won’t govern in my lifetime.

    The Liberals have trashed their brand name with their leadership shenanigans. On past performance you would have to expect that if the Parliament had run to next February, they would have closed down on Colin Barnett a second time. There would have been an awful six months in between.

    They will hold together until September 6.

    Whether Colin Barnett or Alan Carpenter will be Premier depends as always on a few seats.

    Watch Forrestfield, Jandakot, Swan Hills, Joondalup, and Riverton on the night. To form a government, Barnett will need to get most of them.

    This will be particularly the case if the Liberals have not picked up seats like Albany, Geraldton, North-West, Collie-Preston and Kingsley.]

    http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/poll-will-be-a-cliffhanger-20080813-3uyc.html

  13. I know the polls we get to see are rubbish, but they are inconsistent with liberal brand damage.

    They should have brand damage but in a two horse race the Carps brand is being tested too… perhaps Dear Leader has brand issues…. I have gossip, unscientific, from a labor seat that speculates the Dear Leader Brand is VERY damaged. Could be entirely wrong, but I know the booths too look for on the night.

  15. [I have gossip, unscientific, from a labor seat that speculates the Dear Leader Brand is VERY damaged. Could be entirely wrong, but I know the booths too look for on the night.]

    You wanted insiders on both sides to reveal any internal polling, so in the interests of fair play, can you please tell us WHICH ALP seat that the brand is damaged ?

  18. [So was his father the long-serving Great Leader of WA?]

    Nope, his Father has never been in Politics.

    (People who use North Korean analogies should use them correctly.)

    Exactly, or else they look like a goose.

  20. [Wouldn’t that be Charles Court + various sons?]

    On the Liberal side – yes, but Barry Court hasn’t done the party any favours in his unwavering support of Troy Buswell.

  24. [He was a very fine Labor man of the old school]

    Totally agree, unfortunately he lost to Sir Charles Court, and we all know what happened then.

  26. I was referring to the Hon Premier.

    And the brand damage is very outside of any party sources, but if it is there it would be showing up in their daily polling by now.

  27. “Just meandering around looking lost all on his own.”

    Maybe he was looking for ideas, perhaps you could have been kind enough to give him a couple.

  28. [And the brand damage is very outside of any party sources, but if it is there it would be showing up in their daily polling by now.]

    In other words you have no proof – my posts which quoted Jandakot, and the audio file which mentione Swan Hills may indicate otherwise.

  29. Labor’s getting a very young looking guy from Balcatta to run for Eyre, although they did look for candidates in Esperance (someone I know down there got asked early this week… that’s how late they left it). Nationals will come second by the looks of it.

    http://kalgoorlie.yourguide.com.au/news/local/news/general/labor-parachute-into-eyre/1244342.aspx

    Also, the ALP website is http://www.visionwa.org.au – funny name for a political party’s website. Sounds like an optician.

    They’ve also got their candidates for Vasse, Blackwood-Stirling and Wagin. The last two are gonna be safe National, but I would’ve thought they’d have a bit of a go in Vasse, what with Troy Buswell’s troubles… looks like they want the Nats or an independent to win.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/14/2335316.htm

  30. [Labor’s getting a very young looking guy from Balcatta to run for Eyre, although they did look for candidates in Esperance (someone I know down there got asked early this week… that’s how late they left it). Nationals will come second by the looks of it.]

    It was the same for the Libs, they had to do a whole raft of nominations at the last minute, but note these were safe labor or liberal/national seats, which under normal circumstances would’ve been filled before the poll was called, unlike marginal seats which needed a candidate pre-selected at the earliest opportunity to enable proper campaigning.

  32. Antony,

    thanks for the page, now quick question how do determine who wins, considering there is no coalition in WA this time around ?

  33. [Labor’s getting a very young looking guy from Balcatta to run for Eyre]

    By the name of John Keogh…would that be any relation to Matt Keogh? Who is a staffer to Carpenter and former President of WA Young Labor.

  34. Antony,

    Again, thanks for page. Not wanting to nitpick, but for sake of completeness, just a little editing thing on the Candidates page..Ben Wyatt is not listed as an incumbent. (I didn’t see a ‘Contact Me’ button, so thought just best to put it here?)

  36. I love this bit.

    The Capel resident said he was disappointed Vasse Liberals appeared to support their local MP living full-time in Perth and only visiting the electorate occasionally.

    “Maybe Mr Buswell believes that Jim McGinty was correct when he said that Vasse was `the chardonnay coast’ and didn’t need any more help from government, a statement McGinty made to me in Parliament some six years ago,” he said.

    He said election nominations closed on Friday and he would need to be contacted by a big number of traditional Liberal voters who would like Mr Buswell replaced by someone more committed to the Vasse electorate for him to throw his hat in the ring.

    “However, I think such an outcome is very unlikely,” Mr Masters said.

    “Having known Mr Buswell for some 14 years, I remain of the view that he is not a suitable person to be an elected representative of the people. Sadly, it seems that the people of Vasse, especially Liberal voters, will end up with the politician they deserve.”

    http://southwest.thewest.com.au/Regionals.aspx?MenuID=334&ContentId=90792

  37. And the Libs first Laura Norder policy has been released – straight out of Talkback radio.

    And it should be noted that Assault can medan something as simple as poking an officer in the chest with a finger and /or pulling his hat off his head and throwing it in the air.

    Under the Liberals’ commitment, anyone found guilty of grievous bodily harm against a police officer will be jailed for one year.

    Assault causing bodily harm will carry a mandatory nine months jail and any sentence handed down in the Magistrates Court for assault causing bodily harm will get three months jail.

    Mr Johnson claimed recent sentencing decisions for assaults on police officers were inadequate and had sapped the morale of the force.

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24180058-2761,00.html

  43. Not that I am supporting this policy at all, but the poking in the chest, taking off the hat type business would not be covered by a mandatory sentence under this. The Criminal Code has different levels of Assault, starting at Common Assaults – the finger poking stuff, and then rising to Occasioning Bodily Harm – where there has to be something like a black eye, blood nose. The mere infliction of pain is not bodily harm. So just poking a cop would not be sufficient.

    Now, onto mandatory sentences – useless. The cheapest policy shot in the book. Does nothing to address the root of the problem. Just like the three strikes mandatory burglary policy – solved no problems, just created a whole heap of new ones.

  44. Now, onto mandatory sentences – useless. The cheapest policy shot in the book. Does nothing to address the root of the problem. Just like the three strikes mandatory burglary policy – solved no problems, just created a whole heap of new ones.

    Exactly, there is no discretion if the cop or public officer provoked the offender to attack him – and yes it does happen, for example if an undercover officer who is not wearing a police vest is talking to your wife/girlfriend and you assume that he is hassling/chatting her up there is the expectation that you’d “sort this guy out”.

    Oh and this announcement was NOT mentioned on Ch 7 news either.

  46. [And the “3 Strikes and your in” Laws for Yoofs is back.]

    Now that is truly pathetic. A law that disproportionally jails young Aboriginal males from low socio-economic backgrounds. Proven to have no impact on burglary and just no positive impacts on society other than reducing the number of ill-informed fools calling talkback radio.

  47. Now that is truly pathetic. A law that disproportionally jails young Aboriginal males from low socio-economic backgrounds.

    Precisely, and watch the Jails being filled with kids who are in there for stealing an icecream or a packet of biscuits, because he is homeless and is starving.

  50. Jasmine , which ALP seat did you hear Carpenter/Labor hav a brand problem

    She only said the following when I asked her earlier on :

    And the brand damage is very outside of any party sources, but if it is there it would be showing up in their daily polling by now.

    so it can be assumed that either she doesn’t know, or is talking out of her hat.

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