Northern Territory notes

200 comments on “Northern Territory notes”

1. No, no reference available in the public domain (surprisingly). My source is impeccable though I am not able to say who it was (which also goes for the identity of the senior Labor figure). Of course no one would be surprised if this was said in a private setting would they?

   Also this was not during this campaign but obviously some time in the last 7 years.

2. Stewart J
   #141

   You’ve misunderstood th extent of NT Greens ditching opposition to a uranium dump

   We ar talking about a NT Territory Government election right now , and as Grace said in #144 NT Assembly has power What has been raised is criticism of Australian Greens , a Party contesting THIS NT Election

   Australian Greens hav NOT seriousley highlighted there Unranium dump opposition and also has shown ambilevance to a uranium dump (by being indifferent to CLP (who do support th uranium dump) getting Greens prefs)

   Changing goal posts by talking about Federal Labor’s powers & what they may do is a red herring It is Australiaqn Greens who made this prefs decision , and th buck stops with them for it , regarding non preferencing in this NT Electon

   Changing goal posts by claiming Labor expects there prefs is simply another way of clouding that this prefs buck decion is with Australian Greens solely

   Changing goal posts by claiming Labor may suport Uranium mining is also further way of clouding that this prefs buck decion is with Australian Greens solely

   Australin Greens alone made this decision on this particular isie for this particular NT electon , and must wear any criticism and consequenses to its credibility

   That being th case , it is quite legitmate to criticise Australina Greens prefs policy for this NT Election , and I do , its either hypocritial or naieve , or both , at a policy level and I think not prudent at a credibility level

3. Boerwar

   #137

   Thanks for your reply on prefs and I agree with first 1/2 of your #137 post Regarding th 2nd part of your post , as you’ll note from my #152 my only reaction is it is solely Australian Greens decion , but having made it they then hav to wear both consequences of doing so and its accompanying criticism

   Now as you suggest they may hav made it probabley for long term reasons , but I criticise it as I think there long term political strategy (regarding prefs , by non prreferencing now) is counterproductive to themselves , but as you say thats there thoughts I also criticise it on both policy & credivbility grounds

4. Ron @ 153
   Thank you. The proof will be in the pudding. We can both now sit and watch for a couple of elections to see whether the greens strategists got it right.

5. roger
   141

   “Of course no one would be surprised if this was said in a private setting would they?”

   I would be surprised if this was said in private setting and I have never heard any of the Labor people I know talk in such terms. Despite the lack of success in winning town seats in NT elections Alice Springs has a large ALP branch.

   I know people in Alice Springs think that the NTG ignore the needs of Alice Springs but I don’t think that actually reflects reality. The major population centres have their needs very well catered for – towns of comparable size would love to have the services and facilities that AS enjoys.

   Since self-government the major population centres have benefited from Government largesse – this has been at the expense of remote communities.

6. Ok, for those going for a thumping Labor victory and getting very excited about it i suggest you think again.

   As a Territorian i can assure you the 05 election was a protest against the then recycled Opposition Leader D Burke (prev chief min 98-01). He was so arrogant and out of touch he refused to accept that voters actually dared to kick him and his party out of office back in 2001.

   Add to that he had created so many enemies during his time in office (including NT News) and was like a military leader seeking revenge on the people for voting him out lol. He and a few of the other old schoolers ran the show in the clp and even in their Opposition days dictated and overrode policies put forward by hard working party members/candidates and back benches, sounds awfully similar to the current state of the NSW ALP.

   Anyway a lot has happened since then and a Federal Labor Government installed in Canberra, furthermore, no popular female Chief Minister such as Clare Martin is running again (amazing how she got out so quick, wonder what she was caught doing in parliament house during the evening of last years federal election?).

   DONT FORGET the speed limit issue which is still festering in the hearts of many territorians, many who are not politically alligned and feel they were lied too and hood winked by Labor for not being upfront, much like JH and Workchoices. irrespective of any safety views southerners have, the speed limit thing was symbolic, one of the few remaining things that made the territory different free from the bondage and chains.

   Add to that you have that mess of council amalgamations and absolutely no change in indigenous affairs, don’t even mention crime.

   The political landscape has changed and from what i can see the Labor Government have lost some credibility.The biggest risk people took was voting for Federal Labor last year and it demonstrated the electorate is not scared of change when the ‘experience and trust’ cards come out (as they have).

   Despite Mills not being the strongest leader he has enormous community respect and is very genuine, his decision to step down before last election was due to Burkes Army sabotage and blackmail and good riddance to them, as they were all booted out once and for all.

   If the Country Libs had a few more elected members it would be in a highly winnable situation, the fact is though, they don’t with some hefty margins to make up. Full credit to them though for trying hard and re emerging from the rubble, good to see a new logo and some positive talk, the electorate will be kinder to them this time around.

   I reckon Country Libs will pick up Brennan, Port Darwin, Fannie Bay, Fong Lim, Goyder and possibly a Palmerston seat, i also think there is a possibility of at least one surprise in Darwins Northern Suburbs.

   CL 10,
   Labor 14,
   Ind 1

   We need a more balanced parliament for the health of our democracy here in the NT. The current margins are ludicrous and even more ludicrous when coupled with a Fed Labor Government in Canberra…

7. Ron@152

   Thank you for your response. I don’t agree that this is ‘changing the goal posts’ as I rather would consider that these are all linked issues, with the buck stopping for mining and dumping with the ALP (whether at a Territory or Federal level). As to whether this backfires or not, well, as Boerwar says, the proof will be in the pudding. I think that the ALP as a party can’t continually rely on Green prefernces, although most Greens don’t want a return to Federal Liberal or Territory CLP govt.

   But consider this – if the Greens don’t preference the ALP in NT then the ALP has to think about getting their preferences Australia-wide. This will have impacts across all states and territories as they come up for election. I imagine that in WA the existing good relations between the ALP & Greens will continue. In NSW it will be up for grabs, but the NSW Labor doesn’t like the Greens and the Greens don’t like them – expect dirty play. in the ACT I don’t expect any effect. SA, Qld & Vic I am less sure of.

   The upshot is – as a strategic decision it does have merit. In terms of credibility, that will most likely play out on a seat by seat basis, dependent on the demographics and interest of the electorate in preference issues. I rather suspect that these decisions agitate us political tragics more than it does most voters.

   However, (concession coming) you are right to say they haven’t campaigned heavily on the dump, but on the mine, as far I am aware of. Greens in SA & WA campaigned far more heavily on potential dump sites, so I would have thought there would have been some advice there – but I am not privy to it.

8. NT Storm

   DONT FORGET the speed limit issue which is still festering in the hearts of many territorians, many who are not politically alligned and feel they were lied too and hood winked by Labor for not being upfront, much like JH and Workchoices. irrespective of any safety views southerners have, the speed limit thing was symbolic, one of the few remaining things that made the territory different free from the bondage and chains.

   Complete bollocks. It is of virtually no significance at all. People do not vote on such issues. Those who are claiming they will change their vote on the basis of altered speed limit laws, almost certainly never voted Labor to start with, and are just using it as a front to pretend they are swinging voters who are going to ‘punish’ Labor. We still have the highest speed limits of anywhere in Australia. If it wasn’t speed limits, they would just make up some other bogus ‘symbolic’ issue. It will make not difference at all to the outcome of the election. It will be decided primarily on economic factors, and the useless state of the opposition.

   Add to that you have that mess of council amalgamations and absolutely no change in indigenous affairs, don’t even mention crime.

   Yep, they stuffed the politics of council amalgamations, even though it is a good idea in principle. However, you will notice that Henderson immediately shelved those plans when he became Chief Minister.

   No NT government is in a position to make a huge impact on indigenous affairs, they simply do not have the resources to do so (and constitutionally their power is limited as well). The CLP certainly fared no better when they held government for a quarter century. Labor’s Clare Martin pleaded with the Howard government to help, but Mr H refused to even acknowledge there was a problem, until suddenly (just months before he himself faced an election) it became convenient for him to declare a state of emergency about it and try to paint himself as the saviour of indigenous people, after the NT Labor government had (allegedly) failed to deliver the solution, and after Mr H had virtually ignored indigenous affairs for almost the entire lifetime of his long standing government. One of the most hypocritical, dishonest, and disgraceful pieces of political propaganda and manipulation I have ever seen in my lifetime.

   Not to mention that indigenous issues are already largely factored into voting patterns in the NT. It will not be an important issue in the ballot box.

   All categories of crime, except non-sexual assault, have fallen across the NT in the last few years, and it is not clear whether the assault cases are actually rising, or are just being reported more. Plus, being a small population, stats on these kind of things tends to vary about a fair bit, regardless of the long term trend.

   The political landscape has changed and from what i can see the Labor Government have lost some credibility.

   Yup, just like all governments who have been in for more than 2-3 three terms, after the gloss wears off. Broadly speaking, they have managed the place pretty well.

   Despite Mills not being the strongest leader he has enormous community respect…

   Not as a political leader he doesn’t, quite the contrary. Voters don’t vote for Mr Nice Guy, they vote for the leader (and party) they think has the best chance of getting the job done.

   If the Country Libs had a few more elected members it would be in a highly winnable situation

   If, if, if. If only I had a couple of million bucks in my account I wouldn’t have to work again. The fact remains, as you concede, there is virtually no chance of them winning. They cannot blame anybody else for that.

   Full credit to them though for trying hard and re emerging from the rubble, good to see a new logo and some positive talk, the electorate will be kinder to them this time around.

   Talking points straight from CLP (or is it CL?) headquarters. They have yet to re-emerge from the rubble. If they do not convincingly win at least another 4-5 seats this time around, they will still be in the rubble. They have yet to sort out their leadership problems. For f***s sake, they were still publicly speculating on it just a few days ago, in the middle of an election campaign! They have a long way to go.

   I reckon Country Libs will pick up Brennan, Fannie Bay, Fong Lim, Goyder and possibly a Palmerston seat, i also think there is a possibility of at least one surprise in Darwins Northern Suburbs.

   Good chance that Goyder and Fannie Bay will go from Labor to CLP. The CLP has good candidates in those seats (Purick and Lambert).

   Brennan and Port Darwin, borderline.

   Brennan is a Palmerston seat, and Mills himself is not exactly out of trouble in his own seat of Blain (in Palmerston), seeing as he only has a slim margin.

   Dave Tollner is certainly not hot favourite for Fong Lim, he is not really widely respected. Many regard him as a boorish, pushy clown, whose ambitions far exceed his abilities. Did you see him talk straight over his leader, Mills, at a press conference the other day? Amazing. And Mills just meekly took from behind, not a peep from him. A genuine leader would have firmly put Tollner in his place immediately, in front of the cameras.

   Surprise in the Northern suburbs? You mean Len Kiely, who many already think is in trouble? No surprise if he gets the boot. Did you have some other seat in mind?

   They CLP will probably also get Braitling back from the retiring independent.

   However, the surprise seat just might be Katherine, it will be an interesting one to watch on election night, and I do not think the CLP can take it for granted this time around.

   CL 10,?Labor 14,?Ind 1

   The CLP will be doing extremely well indeed to get 10 seats out of this election, my bet is it will be more like 7-8. As it currently stands, they are not even on track to be seriously competitive in the 2012 election.

   The current margins are ludicrous and even more ludicrous when coupled with a Fed Labor Government in Canberra…

   That was the voter’s choice last time around. Are you saying they got it wrong? And, following your line of logic, I presume that next time there is a Coalition government in Canberra, that you will be voting Labor in the NT if the CLP has government by a large margin? Somehow I suspect not.

   I agree that healthy oppositions are necessary to well functioning democracies. Better have a chat to the CLP/CL about their truly woeful performance over the last few years.

9. Called them before, but these are the seats to watch:

   Braitling
   Brennan
   Drysdale
   Fannie Bay
   Fong Lim
   Goyder
   Port Darwin

   Sanderson is in play, with the NT version of the phantom letterboxers currently underway.

   that could then be twelve v twelve and a hung parliament, with Gerry Wood breaking the tie.

   Johnston (particularly with Sangster v Burns) and Karama are the bridge that Labour needs to be defend.

10. C’mon people, lets have some logical arguement and logical punditry rather than what you hope will happen.
    Here’s how I see it.

    ARAFURA ALP
    ARALUEN CLP
    ARNHEM ALP
    BARKLY ALP
    BLAIN CLP
    BRAITLING CLP
    Brennan ALP
    CASUARINA ALP
    DALY ALP
    DRYSDALE CLP
    FANNIE BAY CLP
    FONG LIM CLP
    GOYDER CLP
    GREATOREX CLP
    JOHNSTON ALP
    KARAMA ALP
    KATHERINE CLP
    MACDONNELL ALP
    NELSON Ind
    NHULUNBUY ALP
    NIGHTCLIFF ALP
    PORT DARWIN CLP
    SANDERSON CLP
    STUART ALP
    WANGURI ALP

    ALP 13
    CLP 11
    Ind 1

11. I would move Brennan across to the other side for a number of factors.

    1) 2850 votes were cast at Bakewell at the Federal Election and the 2PP was 55/45 to the CLP

    2) The local factor of the high profile leader attaching to the other two Palmerston CLP candidates.

    3) A swing away from the incumbent which could occur against government overall.

    The factors in favour of Labour retaining the seat are the comparable strength of profile between the two candidates, particularly one as local member and the other only being known as a candidate in the last 5 weeks.

    It will basically depend on how many doors are knocked and the general public overall view of how government has performed and, of course, what the people of Palmerston can be convinced by…

    a Water Park or a Hospital, they are the options.

12. ALP 16 CLP 8 Ind 1

    CLP to pick up Braitling, Brennan, Drysdale and Goyder.

13. Boerwar
    #154

    Indeed you ar right Boerwar , time will play Greens preference stategy out re its success as you said I’m going to reply to Stewart J #157 post now and some extra thoughts may be in there , as it seems th Greens pref policy is strategy based , not policy based

14. Hi ‘Just Me’

    My later comments regarding the ‘ludicrous situation’ simply express the same amount of outrage around at the time the Coalition took control of the Senate shortly after the previous Federal Election. Too much power leads to the abuse of power and i’m sure you will agree with that.

    The Labor Party holds quite alot of power now and i attribute alot of that to the poor State of Oppositions that had enormous difficulty in differentiating themselves from the increasingly right winged JH Federal government. State Oppositions lacked the ability to set a moderate policy agenda. Labor won this hands down (and probably always will) and was the party of choice.

    As conservatives sink their head in despair and cop it sweet, one must accept that the political tides do change (as frustrating as it can be) and already have, Labor State and Territory Governments will be fighting the swings away from them, some will survive, others may not. You never know, the Opposition Leader might parade himself in budgie smugglers during the election campaign!!!

    qoute “Surprise in the Northern suburbs? You mean Len Kiely, who many already think is in trouble? No surprise if he gets the boot. Did you have some other seat in mind?”

    Sanderson is Labors weakest link in the Suburbs,however i do not believe he will loose it by much IF indeed he does loose. Pity the Country Libs should have pre selected Jo for this seat, a perfect contrast.

    I think Jo will give Burns a run, though he is one of Hendos better Ministers so should retain providing there aren’t a heap of cancer sufferers in his electorate. As for Tollner winning, well i just have a feeling Bonsons luck has finally run out. Don’t believe Katherine will fall to the ALP, definitely not after my last visit there a few weeks back…

    2011-12 definitely a return to a conservative territory government imo, torrid political times ahead for the Labor machine as reality bites, argghh!!!!

15. As conservatives sink their head in despair and cop it sweet, one must accept that the political tides do change (as frustrating as it can be) and already have, Labor State and Territory Governments will be fighting the swings away from them, some will survive, others may not.

    Yes and no. Conservative oppositions still have to get their act together first. They are not going to get handed power just because voters are pissed off with the government, the opposition has to be credible as well.

    2011-12 definitely a return to a conservative territory government imo,

    Such certainty is brave, my friend. Henderson is going to be a formidable opponent, especially if the economy keeps going well (and it shows no sign of slacking off anytime soon). If he wins this weekend, he will have the authority to remake the government and deal with any problems left over from the Martin era.

16. Stewart J

    #157

    Thanks for a detailed reply in #157 and if I can quote from your post
    Th issues for mine ar Greens effect on this electon , Greens prefs strategyy , Greens prefs effect Nationaly and Greens policy credibility

    I think you’ve acknowledged I do not argue there is a queston of Greens having th right to make no prefs decisions or it being ‘expected’

    “However, (concession coming) you are right to say they haven’t campaigned heavily on the dump, but on the mine, as far I am aware of.”
    This I think was a gross credibility error Similar to Labor “allowing” prefs to a candiddate who’d prefer Medicare phased out Anti uranium dumpps ar a core Greens policy and it was dropped I believe in favor of future prefs strategy (as assume NT Greens ar violently opposed to it) Th claim of hypocracy rests on that point (a core policy ignord) , NOT on either Greens right to do so or why it did

    Second matter is Greens National policy credibility Being a non mainstream large Party , part of its promotion & distinctiveness has been th claim its not policy hypocritical for politcal advantage And further Greens Party and Greens posters hav previousley quoted examples where Labor or Liberals had been but that Greens Party had not A uranium dump think could not be more close to Greens harts , and yet ditched for strategy So th claim of Greens policy hypocracy should stand I don’t make that nastily , Labor has had those claims made against it in past So thought Greens decison was policy hypocritiacly & an anti credibility decsion for Greens Party Hard to win that polcy ‘purity’ tag as a brand , and easy to lose it

    “But consider this – if the Greens don’t preference the ALP in NT then the ALP has to think about getting their preferences Australia-wide. This will have impacts across all states and territories as they come up for election’

    Theoreticaly you ar quite correct But in practise I thought there was no policy benefit to th Greens here (ie. to say after publicly to voters , we did not pref because Labor supported a uranium dump…that is not th case , but had it been then yes , there WOULD hav been a policy benefit to throw at future Labor contested State electons (that we Greens want policy ‘consideraton’ AT LEAST , for our prefs)

    “The upshot is – as a strategic decision it does have merit.”

    Also , as Greens will likely not influense NT seats , why pick that particular State electon , instead of one where prefs will count Labor ar more likely to take future notice if th no prefs decsion had ‘numbers’ merit , and Labor now ar more likely to think Greens do not ‘get it’ about politcs leverage per this case , and take Greens future ‘threats ‘with little credibility

    ” In terms of “credibility, that will most likely play out on a seat by seat basis, dependent on the demographics and interest of the electorate in preference issues.”

    Agre , although probably about 70% will pref Labor anyway BUT that means 70% of Greens voters ar ignoring there own Party , and many will staret wondering why th hell Greens Party ar indifferent to there own members preferencing CLP’s support of a unranium dump That is playing dagerous games with your member base on a core Greens issue Think not clever

    This leads to my non prefs politcal strategy argument A Party who is perceived by th wider Greens voters to be reely invoronment , CC and anti Uranium based almost exclusively as it core , and not “bribable” Yet to ditch one of those core issues tarnishs its purity brand and can rightly be accused of hypocracy on core policy for politcal gain and I believe it to be so

    Having said that i acknowledge politcs at ‘mainstream’ polical numbers able to win/hold government Labor & liberal level must involve some policy compromidses , because thats reeality of actualy governing for all , so hypocracy charges can be made , but even there I’d argue th degree of variance to a Partys core policys (equivalent to Greens anti uranium dump views) ar rarer , whilst to non core more often NT greens hav made that decison noww for stegy reasons , it frankley doen’t worry me as I think its effect in NT electon will be minimal , and gav my view on policy integrity and stetegy as a pundit as think Labor will win with about 15 seats

17. Ron@166
    Thanks for your reply. While what you say does have merit, I think it worth considering that the Greens already does have to balance policy credibility across a range of policy areas and details. The problem has been that in too many areas the ALP and LP/NP/CLP have been shades of the same colour in policy terms, leading to the accusation (and Greens weren’t the first to suggest this) of “tweedledum & tweedledee”. Now, when making a distinction do you say that one area (in this instance the dump) is more important than the perceived failure of the ALP to act more aggressively on IR, CC, Indigenous Affairs, water etc, especially where ALP policy direction appears to take as a starting point LP policy?

    You could argue that the point of distinction provides the reason to preference them, but you could equally argue that the point of distinction is not enough to sway you when all the other (also core) policy areas are not being covered off. The Greens of course are not suggesting preferencing the CLP in the NT, but rather suggesting that voters themselves need to try and distinguish between the two major parties – because as a party the Greens see it as close run thing. Perhaps the other issue is that I know personally many Greens who are continually disappointed by the ALP, when the actions don’t match the rhetoric, promises are broken, and core policies are dumped (“was that a core or none-core promise” – albeit thrown at Howard).

    I should add that the Greens have made many preference arrangements based on policy requests of major parties (well, the ALP anyway), but just as equally have gone in with a view to swapping seats for seats (ie; HoR’s for Senate). Which approach to take remains an ongoing debate within the party, and will remain so while there are serious activists (of a variety of flavours) still in the party. As to why pick NT – well, the NSW & Vic state elections have passed (were there are very strong state parties plus upper house seats to win) as has the Federal election (with a national approach to be taken by hard-headed numbers people who are not me!). The NT election I would suggest provides an opportunity to tie the uranium mining and dumping issues together, given ability of Federal Govt to make decisions regardless of NT Govt wishes (note the Intervention).

    But as I also said before, I’m not privy to the rationale for the decisions, and am basing my comments on what has happened in the past, and what I know has occured in other states. I do think the immediate impact of such a preference decision will be relatively contained (it is after all an NT election without widespread media coverage) but will have a broader political impact.

18. Best wishes to all the Territory’s passionate bloggers, letter-box-droppers, chook-rafflers, how-to-vote card hander-outers, and poster-putter-uppers for tomorrow.

19. This morning the CPSU was handing out phamplets in the front of government buildings on how the CLP’s Public Serive reduction plans was going to affect everyone. Didn’t sound good at all.

    Bad strategic advice given to the CLP. Was that a Peter Murphy gem? I would laugh myself silly if it was – couldn’t come from a nicer wker.

20. Certainly sounds like an idea that Murphy would be obsessed with.

21. Yes good luck to all for tomorrow!!!

    Being in Government for the next 3-4 years will be a poison chalice for whoever takes power imo, not only in this NT Election but the WA and ACT as well. State budgets will go to pooh soon as the slumping housing market and economic slowdown hits them hard (perhaps to a lesser extent in the NT), meanwhile the public will be demanding the services and infrastructure in which they have become accustomed too.

    BTW ‘Just Me’ IMO i believe the best thing for conservatives has ultimately been their staggering run of defeats and complete loss of power which has enabled a regrouping of core supporters and some fresh blood who like it or not do not share the same views as Labor Governments, many feel somewhat disenfranchised with the community and extremely frustrated that they have not been adequately represented, particularly the moderate rights or ‘social conservatives’. Conservative parties have no choice but to reform and thats not a bad thing..

    Furthermore there is no-one to blame for emerging problems over the coming years except Labor, no buck passing. Mistakes and policy failures are inevitable ….

    Remember It was only 12 months out before the last Federal Election that the then Federal opposition was considered unelectable and lets not forget that Labor only held 7 seats before its 2001 election victory, even some of their strongest supporters did not believe they could actually win. If people want a change they know how to vote for it. My prediction of a change in the Territory Government in 2011-12 is no bolder than saying it wont (providing the clp win back a few seats tomorrow)!!!

22. Grace @155

    I can assure you this was said by a senior Labor figure. As to the “facts” about where the money gets spent I cannot say, however there is the perception, as noted earlier, that Alice Springs misses out and the northern suburbs of Darwin gets the booty. Have you ever been to the Leanyer water park? And I hear there is another vote winner (oops I mean water park) promised somewhere else up north during this campaign.

    Grace I admire your willingness to believe that this is not all about politics and dollars and votes, however the precedents from around the country over many years as seeing government as a way of financially supporting your constituency would have me believe otherwise. The shame of this of course is the blackfellas in the bush seats who are overwhelmingly Labor supporters (mainly probably because the other mob are too awful to contemplate- and they still have form) continue to not get much because they are not in marginal/ potentially marginal seats- their continued voting ALP actually counts against their interests.

    As someone much wiser than me said “you should always vote for the opposition, it is the only way to keep the government on their toes”.

23. I thought that the CLP would pick up a few seats this time around but now I am not sure how the 16,000 public servants and their partners and family and friends will react to their PS reduction policy. Likely that many may not be aware of it.

    If the LNG plant goes ahead and it generates 4,ooo jobs as they say then that is going to put even more pressure on the housing market and rental market in Darwin which, has already accelerated out the reach of many young people and young families. I know the PS is working hard on readying new land releases to keep up.

    If the defence build up continues and so forth there will be lots of pressure on rental and housing prices and of course all those services needed – dental, child care, police, doctors, hospital and so forth. Wonder where the revenue is going to come from.

    By the time of the election following this they may well be many disgruntled Territorians at the lack of sufficient services. The govt may end up the victim of the growth it is promoting.

24. Wonder where the revenue is going to come from.

    I think revenue is allocated from the commonwealth mainly on a per capita basis (with extra for the large land area to administer, defence related stuff, and indigenous affairs). So in theory revenue should keep up with population growth. Any problems with services are not exactly exclusive to the NT, most places in Australia are experiencing these problems.

    Darwin has a simple geographical problem with housing, there is limited space around Darwin to build more suburbs. That is why there are so many large hi-rise apartment blocks going up, and why the nearby satellite city of Palmerston was developed.

25. Now the PSU with email access to all government employees has the advantage of contacting all if they have a ’employment’ related issue. To that end they have emailed all public servents on the mail list with a message thus:

    Quote:

    “Plan to slash PS jobs irresponsible and counter productive”

    An election commitment from CLP to sack hundreds public servants will have a devastating effect on public sector service delivery, CPSU has warned.

    Opposition Leader Terry Mills has vowed to axe over 700 public sector positions if elected.

    CPSU Regional Secretary Naomi Porrovecchio described the CLP plan as bad news for Northern Territory Public Service (NTPS) employees.

    “Terry Mills has revealed his true colours when it comes to the Public Sector.

    “After initially lining up senior public servants, he’s now shifted his focus to target general staff. The knock-on effect to front line services would be disastrous.

    “After changing his position on which jobs would go, it’s hard to believe Terry Mills when he says theses cuts will be achieved through natural attrition.

    “Our economy is growing and fuelling greater demand on public services as the population increases. Attacking our social infrastructure by slashing the ranks of the public sector is irresponsible and counterproductive,” she said.

    Ms Porrovecchio repeated CPSU’s call for all political parties to commit to greater investment in public sector jobs.

    “The NTPS is already struggling to attract and retain employees in a tight labour market. To remain competitive in the battle for talent requires quality jobs, competitive pay and conditions, opportunities for personal development and career advancement.

    “Threatening the job security of public servants will do nothing to ensure the ranks of the public sector are staffed by our best and brightest,” she said.

26. There will be an inevitable lag between the provision of services and the need.

    That is correct all developer leases are now occuring out Palmerston way. The government will need to start decentralisng parts of itself as well unless if it wants perpetual traffic jams on the way in to Darwin or plan a light rail or spend on widening both sets of roads.

27. Centrebet has the CLP out to $8.00. Hell.

28. The PS generally do have trouble finding enough people to fill vacated positions and as such people do find it much easier to progress to higher positions there, simply due to lack of available talent. Any young person with talent in the southern states may find a quick path up the PS ladder if they move themselves to Darwin.

29. Labor tipped to win NT election
    Centrebet political analyst Neil Evans called the leader’s remarks “a massive understatement”.
    “There’ll have to be a full moon tonight, and some bizarre turnaround, for this to become a political contest,” Mr Evans said as the gulf widened to CLP odds of $8 compared with Labor’s $1.07.
    http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24148130-5001028,00.html

30. “After initially lining up senior public servants, he’s now shifted his focus to target general staff. The knock-on effect to front line services would be disastrous.”

    Indeed, far worse than anything Labor could do in their next term (if they win tomorrow).

    There will be an inevitable lag between the provision of services and the need.

    Not always inevitable, but generally I agree. But if the CLP is threatening mass PS cuts at the next election, they won’t be winning the services provision debate. Voters are often faced with a choice between the bad, and the far worse (see NSW, for example). Sad but true.

    That is correct all developer leases are now occuring out Palmerston way. The government will need to start decentralisng parts of itself as well unless if it wants perpetual traffic jams on the way in to Darwin or plan a light rail or spend on widening both sets of roads.

    There certainly is a rush hour traffic issue between the northern suburbs and the city. Mind you, there was 25 years ago when I was travelling into the city/Winnellie each day. The more things change, etc….

31. From the article Gary Bruce linked to:

    …the opposition’s four sitting members have struggled to land any punches in the past 18 days.

    That is certainly how I see it. I am beginning to wonder if my prediction of Labor losing 2-3 seats might be a little pessimistic.

32. Does anyone know where there will be coverage of the election count in the southern states (i.e. Victoria)? ABC? Sky? Or just online?

33. I guessing online would be your best bet.

34. [Does anyone know where there will be coverage of the election count in the southern states (i.e. Victoria)? ABC? Sky? Or just online?]

    No doubt Newsradio will be covering the election results live (ie from when the polls close)

35. I remember watching the 2005 ABC election count from Perth – I think it was on Sky. However, I don’t see anything on either the ABC2 or Sky schedule.

36. My prediction @ #102 still stands!

37. My musings on the Mills NTG cuts.
    http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/08/08/terry-mills-has-a-fatal-flaw/

38. ABC NT Coverage infor from the ABC’s election page.

    [
    Live coverage on ABC1, ABC Radio and ABC Online

    The ABC will present live election coverage on election night, Saturday 9 August 2008.

    Television coverage will begin on ABC1 from 7:00pm ACST.

    ABC Darwin 105.7 will provide radio coverage from 6:00pm ACST.

    Live results and live streams of ABC1 and ABC Radio will be available here after 6:00pm ACST.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nt/2008/

39. Betting on the NT election. All an opposition plot to win votes according to Labor.

    [Bookmakers say Labor is the near unbackable favourite in what has been described as a one-sided contest for the Northern Territory government.

    Centrebet describes it as a tidal wave, with 99.5 per cent of the Territory election money on Labor to win.

    The betting agency has collected close to $250,000 during the campiagn.

    Centrebet’s Neil Evans says it’s telling that punters have wagered less than $1,000 on the Country Liberals.

    “You take it on face value and believe the Country Liberal Party has no chance of winning this election.”

    Today, Centrebet collected $50,000 from a Perth woman gambling on Labor returning to government.

    Labor is now paying just $1.07 to win the election, while the price for the Country Liberals has blown out to $8.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/08/2329392.htm

40. From the link provided by Steve 89
    “The CLP poll of 200 people gives Garry Lambert a 51 to 49 per cent two party lead and shows twice as many voters view him favourably when compared with Labor’s Michael Gunner.”
    “The poll also indicates CLP Leader Terry Mills has a 1 per cent lead over Chief Minister Paul Henderson …”
    They have to be joking surely. I wonder how many CLP members have bet their hard earned on this actually happening?

41. Gary looks like the bookies want a few mugs to take the 8:1 and donate to the bookies’ xmas fund.

42. ABC Should broadcast the election coverage on ABC2. Online streaming can have issues. It should not be hard to broadcast on ABC2!

43. Stewart J

    #167

    thanks for your reply , just a few final points from your post as electon tomorrow gives closure to prefs decsion

    “I think it worth considering that the Greens already does have to balance policy credibility across a range of policy areas and details”
    This belief would hav been in mind when making th prefs decison , a belief Greens voters already themselves hav reluctanse following a prefs vote card to pref Labor for many policy reasons And therefore consequentley greens voters will ‘understand’ non preferencing , because they ar already to reluctant to pref I’ve noticed this perseption with most Greens ‘tragics’ I feel this perseption is flawed and I think most non tragic greens voters also think there is no Twiddle dee /dum choice Th proof is a 70% plus pref despite a no preferencing card

    Excecutive memebers ar more likely to ‘dumb down’ there own voters knowledge (they reely don’t understand) vs maybe there may be merit in our voters perseption , or maybe voters do NOT agree with all our policys , or maybe a core Labor policy is more important than our opposing one , but just maybe maybe voters do see a very distinctive ‘left’ vs right’ Partys diference that executive perhaps ar too pure (or proud) to acknowledge or risk politcal costs to acknowledge , if so then th non prefs decision would cause wonderment at minimum to non tragic greens members

    I think from talking to green suports its reason after ‘but’ , and perhaps some core Labor policys That suggested wondarment is reflected inmy views as well
    Which is why I’ve persued th dump (where Labor publicly opposes) it will be perceived non prefs a\occured when there WAS agreement 9and that Labor , not Greens pushed it hard publicly So am unconvinced either non tragic Greens members or Labor executive would understand doing so on this Electon , will future influence Labor more so

    Also , I am suggesting politcal use of prefs is more understandable to Labor when it was ‘policy worth’ a fight on , and also to non tragic Greens members (seeing my earlier coment on they may see major Partys divide signicantley greater than its executive does

    It could in adition also be that th nature restrictons on realistic policy formulaton & implement as a Government ar too discounted by tragics & executive causing an unrealatic gulf of expectatons , thereby causing a tweedle process

    “You could argue that the point of distinction provides the reason to preference them, but you could equally argue that the point of distinction is not enough..”
    Believe non tragic Greens voters HAPPILY think th first phrase , and tragic greens voters (and Greens exec) th second phrase & seems aparent on this site , some but not you actualy with some biterness Converseley you being seemingly more policy orientated , probaly in my ‘frustrated’ policy camp

    “just as equally have gone in with a view to swapping seats for seats (ie; HoR’s for Senate”
    I have no problem with this approach , in politcs one need members , danger always is to know ones limitations Go for House seats & broaden policy & lose integritys or remain thinner in numbers but Senat influensial with policy integrity
    risk of former is if Labor tries to protect itself and move more ‘left’ , one could (not will) risk th wholle cake Your thoughts

    “The NT election I would suggest provides an opportunity to tie the uranium mining and dumping issues together, given ability of Federal Govt to make decisions regardless of NT Govt wishes (note the Intervention).”
    I’ve looked at this proposition objectively , and was not persuaded at all of th
    “to tie the uranium mining and dumping issues together” Think reverse actualy , think highlighted policy wise ‘a mixed mesage’ and thats WHY I thought it had to be a strategy based decsion

    Agree decision won’t signif affect this election result

44. “The CLP poll of 200 people gives Garry Lambert a 51 to 49 per cent two party lead and shows twice as many voters view him favourably when compared with Labor’s Michael Gunner.”

    I would give Lambert about an even chance.

45. Ron@193
    I understand what you mean about party executives being out of touch with the general electorate – this is after all what is often leveled at politicians of all shades. Sadly it is all too often true, and the Greens aren’t so very different to other parties to be immune to this. I would add, though, that in speaking to Green voters in the community (not members, but people who identify as a Green voter at community events, at stalls, or through community organisations) I have found a high level of scepticism with the ALP’s performance. That may, of course, simply be a factor of where I live (Randwick NSW), and it certainly colours my perception of what goes on in other states. That said, I did note an article in the NTNews regarding ALP members in Alice Springs deserting the ALP to campaign for the Greens:
    http://www.ntnews.com.au/article/2008/08/07/5038_ntelection08.html

    WRT to your question re broadening policy and being perceived to lose integrity to win HoR’s seats – yes, that is a real issue. It ultimately comes down to whether the party sees itself as a potential party of government (thus needing to win seats), or conceptualises itself as something quite different – a protest party, the ‘wing’ of a broader movement (with parliament as a side issue), a balance to major parties (aka the Democrats) and so on. For some parties this is straight forward, but as I think I’ve mentioned before, for the Greens its an ongoing internal debate. The various debates around forestry have lead to some sharp conflicts with external NGO’s (ie; the Wilderness Society) over particular parliamentary activities not being “pure” enough – and this has been reflected in a number of internal policy struggles too.

    Ultimately if the Greens keeps balancing the these ‘forces’ within itself it has the potential to win HoR’s seats and not be ghetto-ised into the Senate, but the nature of parties is that the forces at play are working to have their viewpoint ascendant – thus one ‘side’ of the argument wins. Personally, I think this would be a damaging and ultimately fatal outcome for the Greens. This would be especially true if Labor did move to the left, but I’m not entirely convinced that are able to do so anymore, although this wont stop them making it appear to be the possible or the case – I do note that Henderson has released the letter to PM Rudd asking him to repeal legislation regarding the dump.

46. Bludgers, have any of you tried to exercise your right to postal vote in N.T. elections from overseas?

    In fact, my attempts to postal vote have been ignored for the last two territory elections. In both cases I printed off an on-line application form and sent it by registered mail to the N.T. electoral office on the day the elections were called. I am a confirmed registered voter in Casuarina.

    I sent another registered letter to my Darwin address on the same day and that item arrived on Tuesday of last week. So, there should have been plenty of time to send voting papers to me and for my return letter to be duly registered before today.

    This is just not good enough as I would have enjoyed feasting on the CLP carcass. Does anyone else feel a bellyache at the mention of the N.T. electoral office?

47. Is there going to be a thread for the actual count?

48. Yes indeed Rebecca, stay tuned.

49. If all goes well for them the CLP gould win up to 12 seats, the 4 they hold plus Braitling, Brennan, Drysdale, Port Darwin, Fong Lim, Fannie Bay, Goyder & Sanderson.

    Could happen as I think the people underestimate the effect of a change in federal government. Gippsland shows its not to early in the cycle to see a protest vote.

    However, its unlikely all cards will fall the CLPs way (as they fell Labor’s way in Vic in 1999). I think some of the more marginal seats may present ‘suprise’ ALP holds, thinking of Port Darwin, Drysdale & Brennan.

    But the NT is fickle, as is any voting at such a micro-level. Those punting 50 or 100k on this result are out on a limb.

    Btw..no mention anywhere of Nhulunbuy…could this be the CLPs most unlikely chance? Its an open seat and a mostly non-indigenous population.

50. Live blogging thread open.

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