Northern Territory notes

With five more days to go:

• Nigel Adlam of the Northern Territory News wrote on Saturday that Labor’s Chris Natt faces a tough fight to hold Drysdale, but should be helped by Labor’s promise to build a water park and sports complex in Palmerston; tips the CLP’s Kezia Purich to gain Goyder from Labor’s Ted Warren; declares himself surprised that the bookies have Labor’s James Burke down to retain Brennan; says the CLP should have no trouble reclaiming Braitling with the retirement of independent Loraine Braham; and ultimately tips a result of Labor 14 and CLP 10 with independent Gerry Wood retaining Nelson.

• Fong Lim CLP candidate and former Solomon MP David Tollner was seen to confirm his lack of interest in serving under Terry Mills’ leadership last week, when he talked over him to answer a journalist’s question regarding the party’s embarrassing failure to find candidates in Macdonnell and Arnhem. Former Darwin lord mayor Garry Lambert has given an “absolute undertaking” he won’t challenge Mills, but before not doing so he must win the outgoing Clare Martin’s seat of Fannie Bay. Lambert says he supports Mills’ leadership, “at the moment”. Jodeen Carney, member for the Alice Springs seat of Araluen and party leader until January, says “nothing’s ruled in, nothing’s ruled out”.

• The Radio National program The National Interest featured a lengthy item on the election on Friday, featuring interviews with Terry Mills, Loraine Braham and Treasurer Delia Lawrie. Transcripts from Friday’s action-packed episode of Stateline should also come online shortly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

200 comments on “Northern Territory notes”

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  1. No posts yet! Oh, well, looks like the typical down south mob don’t give a rat’s arse about top enders.

    It used to be that you could tell an NT election coming on because of all the dog whistles. Usually it was bloody land rights (aka knock the blacks), law and order (aka knock the blacks), those interfering bloody feds (aka knock the pro-black, chardonney guzzling, know-nothing, bleeding heart pinkos from down south), give Kakadu back to Territorians (aka knock the blacks), and let’s dig a mine where Indigenous people were negotiating a deal (aka knock the blacks). It all ran like a tram on a track. Most elections, one or more of the candidates would punch somebody in a pub. No-one cared. The voting patterns were fairly predictable, even if Gough Letts did lose out on first chief minister glory because Korean war vet Jack Doolan rolled him with a huge majority of the Indigenous vote. The CLP would usually just romp it in.

    In some interesting reversals, Labour appears to have developed a habit of government, it is getting a bit of a flogging from the conservative commentariat for is failure to deliver gap-closing services to Indigenous people, no-one seems to have noticed the feds, Labour is calling the election to give ‘business certainty’ for a gas plant, and law and order seems not to be an election issue.

    Tollner is an amiable old-style Territorian and, given changes in Indigenous demographics, an increasing proportion of mining in the economy, and an increasingly sophisticated population in Darwin, could well have reached his use-by date.

  3. The only thing worrying Territorians is where and when to vote. You can bet they will be asking ‘are we supposed to vote today?’ Many will vote according to perceptions of the NT News and local TV news except where candidates have some sort of local character and profile, but I cant think of any who have that.

    Yes the dog-whistling elections of the CLP days are well gone (must be something about Liberal types that they love to use bigotry, racism and fear as their main election tools when in power). The CLP used to be able to get the local population to feel the Aboriginals had it too good, were getting too much for nothing, would take over your backyards and so on. The only thing the CLP had to avoid is the bigotry/racism bit with ethnic minorities since there are many of them in Darwin.

    Couldn’t have a Howard type comment that ‘we will be over run with Asians..’ in Darwin.

    Territory politics and Territorians improved when that nasty piece of work Shane Stone left the scene.

  4. Hmmm, interesting about the Greens standing in all 3 Alice seats – will this impact on Braitling and Greatorex, given they are both marginal (although I realise that Braitling is really a CLP seat, but will Alice Springs Councillor Jane Clark standing help or hinder Melky)? Also Green-turned-Independent Justin Tutty in Drysdale – will this impact on the result or simply make a marginal ALP seat a safe CLP seat?

  5. Gough Letts

    Minor nitpick: It was Goff Letts.

    The rest of your post is spot on.

    Territory politics and Territorians improved when that nasty piece of work Shane Stone left the scene.

    They sure have. He is by far the most arrogant politician I have ever seen in action. He single-handedly lost the referendum up here on statehood a few years back, despite polls consistently showing a clear majority in favour of it. He was gone from Territory politics not long after that.

  6. Just Me @ 5

    Thanks for reminding me that the spelling was ‘Goff’. I plead the ravages of time.

    Around about that time there were some stories doing the rounds that may or may not have been 9/10ths bullshit. Who knows? Stories often go around during elections and in the Territory they were generally well-fueled and singularly lacking in opportunities for making judgements about validity and reliability. There were no blogs to establish the truth in those days.

    Anyway, according to some of his constituents, a certain CLP politician who shall remain nameless, had made the fairly basic political error of telling some his voters-to-be that they were ‘too dirty’ to live in ‘proper’ houses. (In those days the ‘proper houses’ element of this proposition was not so often tested in the Territory). This was supposed to have been said when limited self government and elections were a gleam in the eyes of frontier folk, but before they got ‘real’. This politician apparently found it impossible to even think that such folk would vote at all, let alone vote against him. As it turned out, some other folk thought it was quite a privilege to make sure everybody who was entitled to be on the roll was registered and that the transport was available to the nearest polling station on polling day. I am not sure, but I have heard it said that the majority of such voters still signed their names with an ‘x’, so the ‘Gap’ was alive and well in those days.
    I am not sure of the truth of any of this, it is a long time ago, and I never saw any actual evidence that would hold up in court. Perhaps, it was a sophisticated disinformation campaign. Perhaps his constituents misheard him, but, by golly, they certainly voted on what they said they thought they had heard.

    On the other hand, some people had a bit of an idea that Jack Doolan may have helped certain of his homeless voters-to-be ‘borrow’ some corrugated iron from the back of the Katherine meat works buildings in the off-season. Jack had some very considerable human failings, but he lacked neither an action-orientation nor common human decency, so both the failings and the strengths may have combined to lead to some real housing results, albeit he never did get around to helping liberate wood for the floors and glass for the windows. The story about Jack may have been true; maybe not.
    In the event, some of the more sophisticated post-election statistical analysis, as reported in the NT News, did miss this bit of qualitative insight, which was enough to explain why Jack Doolan won his seat. Always, of course, if the stories are true.
    On another topic raised above. I would never ever say anything other than that as a great leader of the Territory, he was a very nice man, a very modest man, a true visionary, a genuine leader, very insightful, humane, caring, incisive, intelligent, inclusive, a great public speaker, a great gift to his party and and an unforgettable boon to the peoples. You may find it difficult to know who I mean, because there have been many such wonderful men in the Territory’s political history. I also understand he will quite rightly litigate to protect such a fine reputation.
    On a final topic, if you want blanket and breathless election coverage for your candidate on the front page of the NT News, I suggest you run with a Saltwater Crocodile, preferably one that chews up the odd outboard, eats the odd tourist, leaps out at passing four wheel drives and turns up in a Darwin swimming pool.

  8. The headlines can be written now for the Northern Territory election: Topend Poll Setback for Rudd

    A swing and loss of seats are inevitable after the landslide last time. The intervention and the often inaccurate claims that the labor government was doing nothing about indigenous issues will bite. So will fishing versus sea rights, the 130km/hr speed limit and the change of leader. For more try the link.

  11. Kevin Rennie @ 8
    Do you think that the old truism about Australian voters being able to discriminate between state/territory and federal elections no longer holds? Or that incompetent journos will think it no longer holds?
    Come to think about it, I just ducked out and despite nine months of wall-to-wall labour governments the sky is still there. Phew. However, there were still some headless chooks out there fluttering around looking for a Messiah Rooster Sans Cojones.

  12. 7 Aristotle

    But look at Lasseter’s, they’re giving out 6.50-1 on Labor (these are even longer odds than most agencies are giving the CLP). Someone must have dumped a huge amount of money on the CLP with them (either that, or one of the techies has seriously stuffed up and is moments away from a sacking).

  13. A swing and loss of seats are inevitable after the landslide last time.

    Agree.

    The intervention and the often inaccurate claims that the labor government was doing nothing about indigenous issues will bite.

    Maybe. The indigenous issue is already more or less factored into voting patterns in the NT.

    So will fishing versus sea rights, the 130km/hr speed limit and the change of leader. For more try the link.

    Doubt they will be a significant factor against Labor. Voters who claim their vote is influenced by such things (especially the first two) are almost certainly not Labor voters to start with and are just using them as excuses to appear like they have changed their vote as a ‘protest’. I don’t buy it at all, and I think the CLP are wasting their time trying to run on these things.

    Henderson is an excellent choice for leader, and comes across very well.

  14. Boerwar

    You obviously have some history up here. Jack Doolan goes back some way indeed. An interesting character, who certainly had his flaws, such as a deep and troubled relationship with ethanol laced fluids, but certainly possessing a solid streak of basic decency.

    As to identity of that noble leader you mention. well, far be it from me to cast stones in any direction.

  15. Just Me @ 14
    Right on the first point.

    I seem to recall that Jack had had a fairly traumatic time of it in Korea which may have caused him some problems in later life. A forgotten participant in a forgotten war and, yes, he had his problems with the demon rum. He didn’t exactly shine in the House, and I didn’t actually agree with him on a fair bit of stuff, but I had a lot of time for him because there was virtually no separation between what Jack thought, said and did. He had a burning hatred for injustice. That was enough for me. As I recall the story, he did help liberate some sheets of tin for Indigenous housing purposes. They were pulled off the walls of the meatworks. He had to borrow the truck to do it but I was never entirely clear about how much permission he had to borrow the truck. Jack would have seen it as part of the class war against the Vesteys mob. We have had some pilfering politicians in Australian history but very few who have taken from the rich and given to the poor in such a direct way. Jack could well be unique.

  16. The Greens have announced they will preference the CLP ahead of Labor in all seats bar Port Darwin, where negotiations are ongoing. The effect of this on Saturday’s poll – limited. The effect of this on the credibility of the Greens in the NT – huge.

    Can you call yourself a “Green” party when you preference the party that wants a uranium dump in Central Australia and to destroy the Daly River via land clearing for agriculture?

  18. Grace@16 – where did you hear this? Given the Greens are running a NO ALICE DUMP campaign I find this a bit strange, so I’d like to find out why as well.

  19. Grace@16
    Where did you hear this? Given the Greens are apparently running a NO ALICE DUMP campaign I find this a bit strange, so I’d like to see the reasons why.

  21. #16

    Does Labor support the dump too? If so, the Greens could try to market it as a “lesser of two evils”-type compromise.

  22. The effect of this on Saturday’s poll – limited.

    Virtually nil, I would say. Individual Greens voters are very unlikely to preference the CLP, no matter what the party’s HTV cards suggest.

    The effect of this on the credibility of the Greens in the NT – huge.

    Yup.

    What were they thinking? If they think their policies will get a more sympathetic hearing from a CLP government then they are well and truly off with the astral-travelling organic fairies.

    All they had to do was not preference.

  23. MDMConnell I’m fairly certain Labor has a no nuclear waste dump policy across the board.

    The Greens certainly paint a contradictory picture. On the one hand calling for the Federal Government to quickly repeal the Commonwealth Radioactive Waste Management Act 2005 and stop the development of a nuclear waste facility at Muckaty, and on the other hand they’re willing to preference a party who wishes to build that facility.

    Really dumb.

  25. This might be a case of having shot yourself in the foot.

    About three weeks ago there was a lot of media about the funding of the Environment Centre and its environmental advocacy commitments. Government committed only $65k for the coming year, of the $185k wanted.

    The CLP environment announcement of last week was to commit to the full $185k amount, plus a boost for ALEC..

    Secondly, as a green vision, a reduction in Government (ie the biggest employer and therefore opinion leader and benchmark) produced greenhouse gases of 20% by 2020…

    and giving the EPA some more powers

    I dont think there has been a comparable commitment from the existing government.

  26. Actually Grace is incorrect.

    The Greens are not directing preference to either party in the NT in all seats except Port Darwin, where they are negotiating with the ALP.

    In other news, the CLP have embarassed donors by sending out bulk emails asking for funds. This revealed the identities of some of the donors to the media.

    “The email is attributed to party director Bob Johnston and reads: “Your voluntary contribution is greatly appreciated, but at present we’re very short of cash … We would want $10,000 by the end of the week and would really appreciate your support – Bankcard accepted.””

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/04/2323483.htm

    Embarassing.

  27. LTEP,

    From your link.

    “In other election news, the Greens will deny Labor their preferences in all but one crucial seat in the Northern Territory election.

    In one of the Territory’s most marginal seats, Port Darwin, negotiations over preferences between Labor and the Greens are taking place”.

    Grace is right.

  28. The Greens are not directing preference to either party in the NT in all seats except Port Darwin, where they are negotiating with the ALP.

    Well, that certainly makes more sense.

  29. Adam in Canberra @ 24

    For Perkins it is clear:

    On, Perkins, from Wikipedia: He later served as Secretary of the New South Wales Department of Aboriginal Affairs from 1987 to 1988. He is the Founder of the Central Australian Aboriginal Congress, a Founder of the Central Australian Aboriginal Legal Aid Service, former Labor Member for MacDonnell and Deputy Leader in the NT Parliament, the first Aboriginal General Manager of Aboriginal Hostels Limited, first Aboriginal General Manager of Imparja Television Pty Limited. He is a Fellow of the Australian Institute of Management.

    Not sure if it is the same Jon Isaacs, but a certain Jon Isaacs:

    recently stepped down as Chairman of Sydney Harbour Foreshore Authority after eleven and a half years on the Board, the last three as Chairman.

    is independent Chair of the joint venture vehicle developing The New Rouse Hill, a $1.2 billion regional centre in Sydney’s north-west.

    is the Deputy Chair of the NSW Ambulance Service Advisory Council and chairs its Clinical Governance Committee.

  30. In other election news, the Greens will deny Labor their preferences in all but one crucial seat in the Northern Territory election.

    Which is not the same as directing preferences to the CLP.

  32. I’m pretty confident that when the ABC report says “the Greens will deny Labor their preferences in all but one crucial seat”, what they mean is that they won’t be making a direction. It is extremely rare for the Greens to actively preference the conservatives – the only actual example I can think of is in a few seats in Queensland in 1995.

  33. Grace said,

    “The effect of this on Saturday’s poll – limited. The effect of this on the credibility of the Greens in the NT – huge”.

    Grace is right.

    Although not exactly Grace’s words, I would also add, Can you call yourself a “Green” party when you preference “or are indifferent” to the party that wants a uranium dump in Central Australia and to destroy the Daly River via land clearing for agriculture?

    Wriggle on that, Green worms.

  36. Enough did so in Qld in 1995 to bring down the Labor government, and thus to consign Drew Hutton and the Greens generally to the fires of hell in perptuo as far as Qld Labor people (such as the PM for one) are concerned.

  42. #36

    That was over the Koala Tollway, am I right? You can hardly blame the Greens for that. How “Green” would it have been to support bulldozing a koala habitat for a freeway?

  48. #44

    This is actually an interesting question. How do you believe the Greens should deal with unco-operative Labor governments? You and others might argue that they should never support conservatives for ideological reasons, but how credible can they be if they just line up behind an environmentally irresponsible ALP, just because they’re the ALP? If they genuinely aspire to be a legitimate third-force party and not just a fringe organisation, surely they need to show they can deal constructively with the Coalition parties, and direct preferences accordingly in certain circumstances (like Qld 1995).

  49. That dilemma flows from the fundamental mistake made by the environmental movement in the 1980s in copying the German Greens and becoming a political party rather than a lobbying movement. Our electoral system forces that choice on minor parties. The greenies would have done much better to stick to the strategy that worked very well for them over the Franklin dam in 1983, rather than turn themselves into an ineffective political party.

  50. Drew Hutton was an environmentalist first and a lefty second… something thats unfortunately hard to find in the Greens these days…

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