Morgan: 59-41

The latest Morgan face-to-face survey, combining polling conducted over the previous two weekends, shows Labor’s two-party lead down slightly to 59-41 from 61-39 in the previous survey. Their primary vote is down 3.5 per cent to 48.5 per cent, but the Coalition is up only 1 per cent to 35 per cent. The balance has gone to Family First and independent/others.

The Courier-Mail also reports on a Newspoll survey conducted for Griffith University’s Federalism Project showing “almost one in five” believe the states should be abolished, and “only one in three people in Queensland wants the status quo of federal, state and local government to remain”. More from Griffith University’s Socio-Legal Research Centre.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

285 comments on “Morgan: 59-41”

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  1. ruawake @ 192

    In an earlier comment in this thread (35), you cited the following example of the rarely reported “little things” the government is doing:

    “The Federal Government will spend $5 million upgrading a breastfeeding advice hotline to a 24-hour toll-free service.

    The funding was part of an election promise to improve breastfeeding support services for mothers.”

    According to the ABC, the federal government is spending $22 million on WYD. Just think of all the little things that that could be going towards (as opposed to paying off the Australian Jockey Club).

    This is why it is political.

    And on the Sydney Chamber of Commerce’s estimate of “a direct benefit of $250”, newmatilda.com points out that the “Sydney Gay and Lesbian Mardi Gras brings a comparable number of visitors [as predicted for WYD] and an estimated $45 million into New South Wales, but attracts zero funding from either the State or Federal Governments.”

    This is why I give a rats.

  2. IW

    27 Mar 2008 and New Matilda gets its figures wrong – not unusual. Does the Mardi Gras with its 10,000 particpants (majority locals) compare? No. 😛

  3. I do find it very very odd about Cardinal Pell’s comment that he is climate change skeptic and open to any evidence. Yet, he is a card carrying number 1 believer of the existence of god, virgin birth, son of god, resurrection, second coming etc. did he ask for evidence? just wondering.

  4. Mardi Gras happens every year, not just once. A large fraction of participants and spectators are not local, it is one of the main events on the international gay calendar.

  5. ruawake

    Are you able to contradict them (New Matilda)?

    And you’re being mighty disingenuous with your reduction of the Mardi Gras’ crowd to 10,000 “participants.” The ABC reports that 300,000 spectators were involved. Is their any basis to your ignorance of the spectator count at this event when it comes to overall economic benefit? Anyway, the key statistic is surely the $45 million bucks it is claimed to have earned.

  6. IW

    I was quoting the figures from the Mardi Gras site – New Matilta quotes a cost of $150 Million it is closer to $240 million.

    How many spectators are there going to be at the mass in Randwick? 🙂

  7. ruawake

    “Event organisers expect up to 225,000 officially registered Pilgrims to visit Sydney.

    Pilgrims from around the world will attend WYD08, many in pre-arranged regional groups. Up to 125,000 international visitors are expected. Several events will draw crowds of over 300,000.”

    From a NSW government website.

    That’s either the same or less than the Mardi Gras count (an event which attracts similar numbers every year – as Just Me pointed out). There appears to be an inconsistency in any funding justification based on economic benefit alone.

  8. Apologies: “over 300,000” is clearly not the same as 300,000. But this does appear to be the general estimate based on the little bit of surfing I’ve done.

  9. IW

    Every Tyke in Australia will be headed for Randwick if they can make it. How many million people were at the last WYD papal mass? 😛

  10. Jen,

    Go back to your Stalinist island of love. There is real debate here and you might get your feeling’s hurt.

  11. Jen’s post at 193 is no joke, it’s nearly on the money.

    The ONLY reason the catholic church preaches populate or perish is because they don’t believe in contraception.

  12. Socrates,

    I didn’t know the slums of Manilla or anywhere ele for that matter were created by religion. Perhaps you can enlighten us all.

    Shows On,

    You of course ignored the “never ending” part of my post which is a little dishonest, but I forgive you. The point is that we have had the same tripe served up day after day on Your ABC and the “broadloids” (love the word) regarding the failings of the Catholic Church. No mention of the good that is done by the Church and its people or an attempt to understand how person’s relationship with God is an individual thing. Not saying that bad things didn’t happen. Just that the practitioners may have been wrong but, the underlying principles and beliefs are as relevant to day as they ever were.

    Al,

    The Church in the sense you are using it, is an inanimate object. It is pointless hating the Church as it is in loving material things. They will never respond. Rather, just think of the people.

  13. Greensborough Growler @ 170 – So Nelson works 24 hours a day? So much for the constant criticism that Kevin is overdoing it!

    But you have to wonder just what Nelson is doing during all those hours. It’s obviously not related to being the Opp Leader or he’d be doing much better at it than he is. Perhaps the rumour I’m starting about him moonlighting in a Chinese laundry in Haymarket is true! 😉

    Given the absolute dogs breakfast he made in Defence (with a lot of help from his predecessors) I can only assume he worked around the clock there too.

  14. “…just think of the people.”

    No thanks. Each time I think of the people I get visions of Pell and Hollingworth.

  15. Hi Finns-
    galloping away there!

    Well GG
    -the olive branch was offered, so you can go do what the Catholic kiddies are about to do.

    Cheerio.

  16. Every catholic tyke, despite the event’s generic branding. Look, I don’t begrudge thousands of kids getting together and sharing their faith. In fact, I’m with you in believing it’s a fun and spiritually nourishing thing for them to be doing. I might also say that a lot of projection appears to be happening at the moment. People who are bitter about the catholic church – or Christianity in general – are attacking WYD merely because it’s a high profile symbol of this institution.

    The water gets murky, however, when the question of funding is raised. Let’s assume the $45 million figure is correct for this year’s Mardi Gras. Then using the multiplier s=(86+22)/250, this event ought to have received $45s=$19.44m in public support. Instead, it received $0. (I admit to being a little crude with my analysis here.)

    Non-Christians (indeed, non-catholics) are entitled to know on what basis (if not economic) events such as WYD get assisted to the tune of $108m yet, on a standardised comparison, events such as the Mardi Gras get zip.

  17. Shows On and Ross,

    I am sorry if you conclude that my 184 was showing contempt as that was not my intention.

  18. Socrates @ 188 – why don’t you take a walk through a slum, take the hand of Jackie pullinger as she introduces you to her freinds. Read the story in the link then come back here and explain to me why you denigrate this person because she is a christian. If you read her story, especially her views on christians, then you can explain why you group all christians together and run them down.

    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/12/14/MNIKT2BIA.DTL&type=printable

    I think Steve K @ 178 is near the truth with his last sentence, although he wants to condemn all people in the church as well. I assume that includes the lady in the story gentlemen??

    Tom.

  19. Lets look at other religions – the Federal Govt. will spend $60 million to try and secure the Soccer World Cup. 😛

  20. Just out of interest GG, what was your intention? In describing Ross as a “sad, sad person”, were you attempting to bring to his attention – in an entirely compassionate manner, of course – a problem he may have with melancholia?

    If so, I apologise to the man above. And I must re-evaluate you.

    (Wink.)

  21. Steve K,

    That is your issue to deal with. Why not go out and meet some practicing Catholics working in Aged Care or at St Vinnies. The easiest thing in the world is to build barriers in your mind. I can assure you that the Church is made up of a lot of good people practicing their faith and their values in a positive way.

  22. Inner Westie,

    You either proffer an apology genuinely or not at all. Adding anything else diminishes the offering.

  23. [You of course ignored the “never ending” part of my post which is a little dishonest, but I forgive you.]
    This is irrelevant. In liberal democratic countries people can critique, analyse, mock, or make fun of something as often as they like. That is a freedom enjoyed by all. Religion has no special exemption from being made fun of.

    [The point is that we have had the same tripe served up day after day on Your ABC and the “broadloids” (love the word) regarding the failings of the Catholic Church.]
    See above. Religion can be critiqued as often as one likes, and you can complain about religion being critiqued as often as you like. Religion is not the basis of our society; liberty and democracy are. Liberty implies that people are free to think whatever they like, when they like.

    [No mention of the good that is done by the Church and its people or an attempt to understand how person’s relationship with God is an individual thing.]
    Lot’s of people and organisations that do good go under-recognised, not just Churches.

    The relationship between God, Gods, non-Gods and people is just an opinion, no more or less valid than any other. It may be extremely important to you, but that does not mean your view is valid for everyone else. Nor does it mean that you can stop others from believing in things that completely contradict your views.

    [Not saying that bad things didn’t happen. Just that the practitioners may have been wrong but, the underlying principles and beliefs are as relevant to day as they ever were.]

    To people who hold those beliefs maybe. But other people are free to believe other things that completely oppose your beliefs.

    The principles that bind our society are liberalism and democracy. They allow people to practice religion – if they wish – in the first place. Liberalism lets people with completely divergent views coexist in the same society. Whereas before liberalism, when religion was considered the basis for social structure, conflicts concerning divergent religious views constantly resulted in wars where different groups tried to force others to adopt alternate beliefs. Liberalism put an end to such carnage by making religion a private matter.

    Of course then came Darwin…

  24. Shows On,

    If it was irrelevant, why did you leave it out?

    Have no problem with religion or its institutions being critiqued. However, I do believe there should be balance in the reporting. My point was that the ABC ran a 25 year old story every day on AM, PM and other News services for a number of days. Was it really news after day 3 or 4. I just think there was an anti Catholic agenda run on this particular story by certain journalists. You may disagree.

    The discussion about Liberty and Freedom always leaves out the bit about personal responsibility. To be truly free you need to have values. Everyone decides as an individual what those values are. Christian values work for me.

  25. 227
    Greeensborough Growler

    Tell me about the church leaders. Of course there are plenty of decent people at the coal face. I’m at the coal face too on a regular basis but without the banner of organised religion. Tell me about the Pells and Hollingworths of the world.

  26. Steve K,

    Most of the people I know involved with good works are there because that is where their personal vocation has lead them. Do they do it “with a banner of organised religion”. Hardly.

    You need to get over your leader/lead view of the world. We all eat, sleep, shit and shave. Pell and Hollingworth are people first.

  27. This is getting about as poisonous a discourse as I care to read.

    I’m going to hell in my own way and I’ll argue about whether it exists when get there.

    Meanwhile, I’ll return here when the air clears, hopefully when newspoll is revealed later tonight.

  28. Pier Giorgio Frassati died in 1925 but his cadaver has a certain aroma amongst impressionable catholic youth. (Sorry, “aura”.)

  29. [If it was irrelevant, why did you leave it out?]

    Because I didn’t realise I would have to explain it to you.

    [My point was that the ABC ran a 25 year old story every day on AM, PM and other News services for a number of days. ]

    If someone has been abused they have a right to seek justice and compensation. I couldn’t care less when the crime was committed. Waiting for time to pass doesn’t make abuse OK.

    [To be truly free you need to have values. Everyone decides as an individual what those values are. Christian values work for me.]

    Belief in liberalism is a moral value. I concede that it isn’t a religious value, but that is my point. It is more important than religious values, because it is what modern democratic societies are based on.

    Certainly many good people are religious, but it does not follow that to be a good person you must be religious. If religious people accepted that principle there would be a lot less conflict in the world. After all, no one has the right to force anyone to believe in something they don’t agree with. People who aren’t religious just want it acknowledged that one can be morally good, without having to accept religion. This is of course obvious, the Red Cross is one of the biggest charities in the world, and it is a secular organisation. Same goes for Drs without Borders.

    Sadly too many religious leaders believe the opposite. In the last few days the Pope, Cardinal Pell, and many in the commentariet have made the first year philosophy student howler of directly equating religion with morality.

  30. There are some fantastic christian and some fantastic non christian people in the world.

    In my personal opinion however, I reckon religion has probably done more harm than good.

    I’ll go out on this subject by saying “I decide how to live my life and the way I choose to live it!”

    Oh, and also, I’ll go where all the naughty girls go. 🙂

  31. Shows On,

    This can’t go much further. But, you quoted me out of context by ignoring (liberally under quoting) the “never ending” part of my quote. I think that is a fair point.

    You also ignore or fail to address the repetitive nature of the story on the ABC as I described.

    Now, where did those Liberal Values come from?

  32. Steve K,

    Actually, I answered you very clearly and directly.

    As I said earlier, you are the one with a problem with the hierarchy. You deal with it as best you can.

    Cheers.

  33. {Oh, and also, I’ll go where all the naughty girls go.}

    What’s that old saying? “When she was good she was good, but when she was naughty, she was very good!

  34. Just a word or two from someone watching some one else close, die. We were all brought up Catholics, as in the Roman sort. She and husband converted to being Jehovah’s Witnesses. One of the more nuts belief systems, in my view. However, it sustains her and him through the end of life experience. Who am I to judge? Who are any of us to judge what sustains people through life’s hard times?
    However, if any one from the religious beliefs, of any sort, want to influence political decision making or policy formation, they can bugger off. Oddly, the J.W.s don’t vote.
    Of course, I realise the religious people will attempt to influence policy.

  35. 244
    Greeensborough Growler

    You said “So the church leaders “…all eat, sleep, shit and shave. Pell and Hollingworth are people first.”

    Hmmm. So despite this you still support you statement in 244 i.e. “The God haters are out in force again with their never ending faulting of religion. Time for a bit of perspective.”

    Mate, you have a serious contradiction that I think should be dealt with though I’m confident you’ll continue to ignore it – but that’s your issue not mine.

  36. Greeensborough Growler Says:
    July 14th, 2008 at 6:43 pm

    Church is made up of a lot of good people practicing their faith and their values in a positive way.

    True; but sadly they are not the Pope, or Pell, they are the normal everyday catholics that ignore the ramblings of old men.

    Come on carting a corps around; how sick does it get.

  37. [Now, where did those Liberal Values come from?]

    All liberal philosophies share in common the basic proposition that all people have the same moral worth because they are all born equal. This moral equivalence principle means that all people should be afforded the same rights. In this regard, liberalism is an argument for universal human rights.

    This explains why liberalism opposed monarchical and totalitarian systems of Government as well as the slave trade. Those systems assume that some people are of greater moral worth than others.

    The other basic tenant of liberalism is that people are free to make their own determination of what they consider to be a good life. They can’t have decisions of worth made for them as in socialism.

    The values inherent in liberalism have philosophical origins, but not supernatural origins. This makes sense, because liberalism was derived in opposition to theocratic systems of government.

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