Westpoll: 53-47 to Labor in WA

The latest 400-sample Westpoll survey (“based on interviews with more than 400 people”, according to The West, though I doubt you’d need both hands to count by how much) shows Labor with a 53-47 lead on state voting intention, at the low end of the 53-47 to 56-44 range which covers every published poll this year. The Coalition even holds a slight lead on the primary vote, of 39 per cent to 38 per cent. These relatively encouraging figures for the Coalition are accompanied by death row ratings for Troy Buswell: he trails Alan Carpenter as preferred leader 62 per cent to 12 per cent among all voters, and by 43 per cent to 27 per cent among Coalition voters. The West also gives the first published indication of how Buswell is travelling with women voters, showing a preferred leader rating of 9 per cent (bearing in mind the small sample size) – which presumably compares with 15 per cent among men.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

55 comments on “Westpoll: 53-47 to Labor in WA”

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  1. Terry Redman, surely? 😉

    I’ve been looking over the 2008 pendulum… with 38 Labor MP’s out of 59, it already looks pretty good for them, but it could be even better, and really bad for the Libs. Here’s the seats I reckon the Libs could lose, at least if Buswell’s the leader at the election:

    Kalamunda: It’s pretty narrow on the calculated figues (0.2%), so any swing is gonna give that to Labor. Same reason I think Labor will (notionally) keep Kingsley and the new Darling Range.

    Dawesville: That’s become pretty narrow too, and Kim Hames has supported Buswell so he won’t be getting much love.

    Albany and Geraldton: Both of these are regional cities with surounding farmland added in, so they’re notionally Liberal seats (after redistribution) with sitting Labor MP’s. I reckon Labor should ‘hold’ them, although that depends on how well the Nats do / if they have a candidate in Geraldton.

    Scarborough: This one’s new, and according to the map on its page, it’s half Carine (good for Labor, apparently) and half Churchlands (really good for Liz Constable, vs Labor), so I can’t see why it’s on the Liberal side of the page.

    Kalgoorlie: Always been Labor except for Matt Birney, and he’s going, so they’ll possibly lose it. Whether to Labor or to John Bowler, that’ll be interesting… there’s plenty of people running in that seat.

    Vasse: wouldn’t that be cool to watch? I’m tipping Bernie Masters if he runs, especially if Omodei does too (more preferences not going Buswell’s way).

    Nedlands: Sue Walker’s an independent these days, and I think she might keep her seat.

    Blackwood-Stirling: It’s marked as Liberal, but I bet Terry Redman’ll win it for the Nationals.

    Moore: This’ll be interesting. It’s made from all of Moore, (Libs got most votes there last time, Nats came third), half of Greenough (same, but the Nats came second and therefore won), and some of Merredin (there’s no numbers on that map, but I’m guessing the Dalwallinu / Perenjori region’s pretty good for the Nats). I’m tipping Grant Woodhams.

    So if all those happen, it’d end up as: Labor 44, Liberals 7, Nationals 4, independents 4 (Constable and Woollard, plus Walker and Masters). Absolute murder for the Libs, and not so bad for the Nats as it could have been.

    Any thoughts on all of that, folks?

  2. Bird, Churchlands is “independent versus Labor” because the Liberals finished third and Labor second in 2005, but this was because people who normally vote Liberal voted for Constable instead. There’s no question it would have been a Liberal seat if not for Constable. The three booths that are “black” on my Scarborough map were won by the Liberals at the federal election by 67-33 (Woodlands), 56-44 (Doubleview) and 51-49 (Scarborough). Antony Green determined Liberal-versus-Labor results for Churchlands by using a preference split of about 60-40 for Constable’s votes: I’m not sure whether this is based on a ballot paper study or educated guess work.

  3. Interesting Bird, and I’m hesitant to indulge in ‘the libs will never be fit to govern’ but regardless of the number of seats the Libs need to have the members in the house to find a leadership and contest the next election.

    I’m foolishly perhaps assuming even Colin sans canal can’t actually win Government for them this time; and there is the small matter of him not being leader and not having pre-selection for them to work out.

  4. Bra Snapping, chair sniffing Trasurer would be a tragic way for West Australia to go. This time around, Mr Barnett has the job he wanted on his own terms, but a by-election in Cottesloe is considered a certainty if Labor wins Saturday’s election. Labor has been so successful building railways all over Perth. Improving and extending Freeways. Building new hospitals and schools.
    Mr Barnet was responsible for selling Alinta Gas and introducing individual workplace agreements. Now he wants to mine uranium with no care for the miners that would have to inhale the deadly radon gas which would also kill all those local communities that dwell on the outskirts of these uranium mines. These communities would be no different than Wittenoon where Asbestos was mined.

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