• Recent form suggests Roy Morgan has moved from weekly to fortnightly, and it seems the West Australian either didn’t conduct or didn’t publish its normal monthly Westpoll survey of state voting intention.
• George Megalogenis of The Australian wrote yesterday of “special analysis” of Newspoll showing that since the May budget the Prime Minister has suffered “double-digit falls in his popularity among higher-income earners, full-time workers and people aged 35-49”. We are also told the PM “didn’t do as badly among households with children – they trimmed his rating by 7.7 percentage points to 60.9 per cent, while those without children cut it by 10.7 points to 56.8 per cent”; and also that his approval rating among Coalition voters dropped from 40.9 per cent to 28.5 per cent.
• A survey conducted last month by Essential Research shows “93 per cent had either not heard of the emissions trading scheme, had heard about it but didn’t know what it was or knew just a little about it”. However, Chris Johnson of The West Australian reports that “once the concept was explained, respondents overwhelmingly thought it was a good idea. Seventy-two per cent strongly supported the introduction of an ETS and 78 per cent thought transport and petrol should be included.” I see the principals behind Essential Media (the company behind Essential Research) include Ben Oquist, former adviser to Bob Brown and one-time Greens Senate candidate.
• Labor continues to dither over whether to contest the Mayo by-election. No doubt their decision will be soundly based on research, but if I were them I’d go for it: the electorate that almost put John Schumann in parliament seems an unlikely candidate for an emissions trading scheme backlash, and a relatively good result would help shake the Gippsland monkey off the government’s back.
• In the absence of Westpoll we will have to make do with more “unpublished Newspoll figures” provided by Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times, showing “41.9 per cent of 418 Liberals polled preferred Mr Carpenter as Premier, instead of their own man (33.5 per cent)”.
• Tasmanian Greens leader Peg Putt will resign from parliament and has handed the leadership baton to Franklin MP Nick McKim. A recount for Putt’s Denison seat will almost certainly deliver it to Cassy O’Connor, who once worked as an adviser to local federal Labor MP Duncan Kerr. This outcome was anticipated at the time of the March 2006 state election by Greg Barns.
• Antony Green and Possum Comitatus have been blogging prolifically of late. Do go and look.
• In the interests of promoting Aussie talent, the Poll Bludger presents a 1993 Rock Classic from the Cruel Sea.
Article on global cooling: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_cooling
Scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_the_mainstream_scientific_assessment_of_global_warming
BS,
“Indeed the most oppressive, pseudo-fascist aspects of Australia’s laws were introduced by ‘Labour’ (sic) Governments…….the blatant ultra-nationalism and racism that may be considered characteristic features of the ALP leadership’s official ideology, have been subdued somewhat……the role of the ALP as a racist, chauvinistic, anti-working class, pillar of the bourgeois state…’ (Red Moat, Vol. 3, No. 28)
You can do parody. My quote is for real.
Who cares if we are cooling or warming – don’t waste William’s bandwidth discussing it.
There are so many good reasons for an ETS even if climate is not changing at all. 🙂
You go CC 🙂
Ruawake you’re right no more on alleged climate change for William’s sake.
Just Me,
I’m not trying to discredit scientists who believe in global warming, just challenging your claim that global cooling was ‘never’ widely or seriously believed in the climate scientist community. I remember it was widely discussed in the 1970s. It may now be discredited and disregarded, but I don’t accept the ‘never’. However, you have constructed the argument in a way that makes you unbeatable because you can dismiss anyone who disagrees as not serious, not widespread and not a climate scientist.
Compare and contrast the handful of scientists listed as opposing the consensus view on AGW, (in the Wikipedia link provided by JoM @51), with the many thousands of scientists represented by the organisations listed in the following article.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change
In particular, note the following results of a survey of the actual peer reviewed literature by Oreskes (2004):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change#Oreskes.2C_2004
Chris Curtis @ 30 –
His [James Lovelock’s
While he did come up with the Gaia hypothesis, Lovelock is not a climate scientist, but a medical doctor, abet one with a PhD. His main claim to fame is inventing the electron capture detector.
Whatever his past position on an ice Age return, he seems now a firm believer in CC. Two years ago he wrote that because of global warming:
“billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable”
(James Lovelock: The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years)
MayoFeral,
I didn’t know James Lovelock was a medical doctor or the inventor of the electron capture detector, but I did know that he had changed his mind on climate. My only point was that global cooling was regarded seriously in the 1970s.
Seems we are in a mine is bigger than yours shouting match.
http://www.petitionproject.org/index.html
Touche !
I’ve just hunted down a piece I wrote on Tex Perkins for the Herald-Sun in 2001, and am thrilled to discover I managed to work in a reference to Laurie Oakes.
Now we have zedder linking to a site with a dodgy petition – signed by a couple of scientists after they died. From 10 years ago. 🙁
Can we please raise the level of debate.
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Oregon_Institute_of_Science_and_Medicine
As an atheist sometimes I get regailed by Christains who say “zedder please believe in the lord. It does not cost you anything and at the end of your life you will be saved. What is there to lose?”
That line of reasoning is known as Pascal’s Wager
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal%27s_Wager
In many ways I see parallels with AGW reasoning. This has been espoused by many people here along the lines ‘Reducing pollution is a good thing. If we don’t act now we could be doomed’ and similar lines of reasoning. No problems there, I want to see a cleaner climate as well. But there is this thing called intellectual honesty. We should clean up the environment because we want to clean up the environment. Constructing dishonest reasons to force us to do this will only create a cynical climate when we really need to act decisively in the future.
Now we have Nelson going backwards while the rest of the world is going forward.
“RUSUTSU, Japan – The Group of Eight leading industrial nations on Tuesday endorsed halving world emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050, edging forward in the battle against global warming but stopping short of tough, nearer-term targets.
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The G-8 countries — the United States, Japan, Russia, Germany, France, Britain, Canada and Italy — also called on all major economies to join in the effort to stem the potentially dangerous rise in world temperatures.
“The G-8 nations came to a mutual recognition that this target — cutting global emissions by at least 50 percent by 2050 — should be a global target,” said Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, who announced the endorsement.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080708/ap_on_re_as/g8_climate_change
zedder –
the difference is that there is no evidence of a God- if you choose to believe it’s a matter of faith.
Climate change and global warning have so much evidence to support it that it is not a question of faith – believing it’s NOT true is a far greater act of faith. The facts are there: you are perfectly entitled to ignore if you want of course.
On cue Mesmerelda muddies Nelson’s vision:
“”We support the Shergold recommendations that were given to the Howard government in 2007 that there be an emissions trading scheme in Australia,” she said.
“Peter Shergold said that an emissions trading scheme was difficult but do-able by 2012 and we remain committed to that policy.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/08/2298109.htm?section=justin
That’s the problem with the Opposition having no policy on anything, every Shadow Minister has their own opinion on everything. Looks like they have been coached by the Queensland Liberals who have years of experience in these tactics.
The Liberals, their fellow traveller Greens and the disaffected former Labor members of the WA Upper House sure are a bunch of Bumblers.
They set up a House Committee to skewer the Labor Government for the raid on the Sunday Times. You know, where the WA police sent about thirty cops to the paper’s office to gather evidence about a Departmental leak to reporter Paul Lampathakis.
Anyway, the gist of the criticism of the Government was that it abused it’s powers by sooling the cops on, and generally over reacted to a minor issue.
In true Milne style, the Libs ranted that a Royal Commission was required into a major coverup when Carpenter politely pointed out that no member of the Government had anything to do with it.
Carpenter obviously refused, so the jolly conspiracists set up their own personal inquiry in the only place they could, the Upper House.
So what was the question they asked Lampathakis? “Wo was the source of your leak?” Wrong question!. Lampathakis of course refused to answer and the Lib./ Greens Axis was obliged to threaten him with imprisonment.
Now who’s over reacting?
Cardinal rules of cross examination, don’t ask a question unless you know what the answer will be, and don’t ask a question unless the answer will futher your purpose.
65 – ruawake
Bloody hell – these Lib politicians really are a mess. In the interests of good governance I hope they can get their sh1t together sometime soon as a one party state isn’t good for democracy.
Wo = who.
WB@60 I get it!
As long as we put “Laurie Oakes” in a post
it’s allowed..yes? 😉
lol…before you flipout WB… twas a joke ok…OK
68 Steve k it usually takes oppositions the best part of a decade to move from incoherent rabble as the Liberals are showing on Climate Change to developing coherent policy on a broad front.
Here we have Nelson running around in circles with a new position every day while Bishop is lost in the Howard era. Neither have probably even bothered to read the report and Greg Hunt is missing in action. Turnbull has been silent and Labor will start to look competent as the heat and pressure begins to build on the Opposition.
Lol, Laurie Oakes legend, I’ve seen it in many posts.
Is anyone else watching INSIGHT on SBS right now? A discussion on petrol prices! Peter Dutton is looking like a complete dill, a lot of support for Fuel Watch from WA!
Yes Steve, Malcolm Turnball’s silence is deafening!
Rudd pointed out the Liberals have adopted 7 different positions on an ETS in 12 months!
Progressive, I am sure that Andrew Robb will be Googling right now to find a response to the G-8 meeting in Japan.
Progressive,
funny you should mention Malcolm. I’m wondering if he hasn’t put his ambitions on the backburner for now and is willing to wait until after the next election to take over with a more solid support base in the party room.
Would make sense in that I can’t see the poor old Libs having much of a shot regardless of leadership.
Mal is briefing his “brief” re HIH
zedder, I’m going to have to take a rain check on last night’s- I’ll watch the stuff you nominate, then come back and debate impact on domestic/global policy – sister with brain tumour is going into terminal stage with family mess to sort out. The science on this has been interesting! Not bad, but you’re always feeling your way to try and evaluate whether or not something is going to be effective. Got to go interstate shortly, so won’t have time to do our deal justice, but will try and pick up later. What was it John Lennon wrote about life and other plans? William, that could be apposite!
Fulvio, Brian and I go way back!
Andrew Robb’s obsession with Japan is slightly disturbing!
He must be pissed off that he didn’t get an invite to the G8 Summit.
Thay’s OK Harry, there are always more important things in life than PB. Maybe the best thing about this place is that it allows us to forget about our day to day life and contemplate and discuss the big issues that confronts all of mankind.
As for Brian was he the Brian that posted a lot on the sadly missed Inside Politics website? He certainly is a prolific poster on LP.
When at many a crossroad in my life, I’ve often asked “What would Tex Perkins do?”.
On the Malcolm Turnbull silence, He almost has as many Facebook friends as Heavy Kevvie now, so many he found a higher calling?
I don’t know why anyone would think global warming is a vote winner for either side. The only thing that Jim and Jane Stupid , of Overcommitted Street Kellyville, want is for someone to reassure them that they are keeping the swarthy, unwashed hordes at bay, the abos in their place as well as telling them that it’s nobodies business except Jim and Jane’s that they go into unbearable debt to try and keep up with Cameron and Emma Snot next door while they Hoover up every single imported appliance they can find at Castle Towers.
That someone was the one and only John Winston Howard. He didn’t give a continental about global warming either but unfortunately for Jim, Jane, Cameron and Emma, he’s gone and poor old Brendan doesn’t kick Raghead like the old champ did. Doesn’t make them feel any better about shopping safaris either, with strange promises of five cent petrol price cut in the midst of a fifty cent rise. Sigh. Things simply aren’t the same just the Windsor Road these days. Maybe young Tim or Richard will climb over that white picket fence, turn back the clock to 1954 and give us some good, old-fashioned incentivation. And kick the tripe out of some reffos. Golly, it’s getting warm, Jane…
83 Yep, HIH is a higher calling in my book, SL.
Strangely Stephen Lloyd, at major crossroads in my life I think I should get a lawyer, better get a real good one 🙂 TP would approve!
RO, if he hadn’t lost to Maxine, they’d be forgiving and forgetting about now!
Harry, sincerely all the best to you and the family
HSO, that is very sad to hear. Hope your family eventually comes out of the process strengthened from the experience.
Harry,
I am so sorry to hear of your sister’s illness. There is no comfort in facing the tragedy that life throws at us. Take care.
Chris Curtis @ 58 –
My only point was that global cooling was regarded seriously in the 1970s.
Yes, but it is disingenuous to suggest that we should therefore dismiss global warming as equally dubious.
The global cooling theory consisted of little more than: ‘ice ages have come about every xx years and its about xx years since the last one started so we can expect another one in the next millennia or two.’ The only ones at the time claiming it would happen within their lifetimes where fringe commentators like Lovelock.
Unlike the considerable amount of data supporting a warming, there was virtually nothing underpinning an imminent freeze, no appreciably colder winters and summers, no increase in glaciers, no wall of ice descending on London, no fall in sea levels, no extremely wet years here, etc; just a theory based on past cycles.
Missed in the beginning was that in past ice ages there was virtually no input from humanity, much less industrialised humanity. At the end of the last one the human population of the planet was a few hundred thousand hunter gatherers who were only recycling plant based carbon through the atmosphere. It was when the cooling proponents started looking at what affect fossil fuel guzzling 20th century people would have on the theory that they began to realise the extent of our impact on the planet’s heat balance.
BTW – the global cooling theory isn’t invalid. GC just hasn’t started yet. It still may sometime in the next few thousand years. OTOH, there is a large body of data showing global warming has begun and the effects are accelerating.
Sorry about your sister, HSO. Loosing a loved one is always difficult, but the big C often makes it much harder. It can be a cruel bugger. 🙁
Take care
For anyone considering the debate on the extent of global warming..
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml
I personally found the media posturing around Australia’s drought and the El Nino effect to be enlightening
Up until last year, you would hear any number of environmentalist, Bob Brown, Turnbull (as environment minister) etc claim the drought in Australia’s south east was a classic example of global warming. “Look out people, we are all going to die” etc, etc etc…
Then in June 2007 the El Nino pattern finished and, what’s more, it finished well within the historical range for the El Nino experience.
Now we have returned to normal rainfall patterns, is anyone from the kyoto camp blushing? Is anyone confessing the recent drought wasn’t global warming, it was just normal climate change…Nope!!!….just more horsesh1t from the greenies
Thank you all. You have all been just the bee’s knees, really. It’s a $#%$%$% at this stage. I hope you never have to go through it yourself, or with someone close to you. But many of us probably will. May we meet our tragedies with compassion, may we anticipate our tragedies if we possibly can, may we try and stave off the tragedies if we possibly can. I’m sorry, I’m blathering. And I can’t even blame the 3 legged cat, who’s gone to sleep on the couch. Very sensible, and so shall I. Night all.
Harry, best wishes to you and yours from me!
We’re all sending our prayers and good thoughts to your sister!
MayoFeral,
“…it is disingenuous to suggest that we should therefore dismiss global warming as equally dubious.” I made no such suggestion, though I guess you can reply that you never suggested I did.
“The global cooling theory consisted of little more than: ‘ice ages have come about every xx years and its about xx years since the last one started so we can expect another one in the next millennia or two.’ ” There was more evidence than this in the reference I gave above.
What Progressive said.
Very best wishes Harry.
HSO all the very best wishes.
John Who ??
[Former prime minister John Howard has told a gathering of the Western Australian Liberals that the honeymoon is over for the Rudd Government.
Mr Howard was the guest of honour at the fundraising dinner in Perth, giving his first speech in Western Australia since losing the federal election last year.
He told the gathering the result of the recent Gipsland by-election in Victoria is proof the gloss has worn off the Federal Government.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/09/2298239.htm?section=justin
Harry-
ditto.
You and Kirribilli are both in awful places right now and your cyber friends are thinking of you. Best wishes getting through this sad time.
Mr Squiggle – that’s a little harsh.I really don’t think ‘the Greenies’ can be held up as the ones who made up Global warmimg. i think you’ll find there has been quite a bit of discussion on it around the entire planet from all kinds of quarters.