|Marlene Kairouz (Labor)|| 12,665
|Les Twentyman (Independent)|| 5,108
|Jenny Matic (Liberal)|| 5,345
|Marcus Power (Greens)|| 1,297
|Tania Walters (Independent)|| 1,093
|Andre Kozlowski (CEC)|| 334
Tuesday 6pm. I am reliably informed that the Victorian Electoral Commission has conducted an unpublished Labor-versus-Liberal preference count which puts Labor at 71.5 per cent. So the real swing against Labor was only 4.1 per cent, a good result for a third term government with a big majority. There was troubling news for the Brumby government on Saturday, but it came from Gippsland, not Kororoit.
Monday 1am. I have been too busy with Gippsland to comment on Kororoit. I rather feel that this shows a sense of proportion which is lacking at The Age, whose website puts Kororoit at centre stage with a headline reading Big rebuff for Brumby. This heads a story which claims Labor has suffered a 16.5 per cent per swing, a figure obtained by comparing the apple of 2006’s Labor-versus-Liberal result with the orange of Saturday’s Labor-versus-Twentyman result. A meaningful two-party swing cannot be readily obtained because we don’t know how Twentyman and the minor candidates’ preferences went, but an educated guess points to a Labor/Liberal split of around 70/30 and a no-big-deal swing of 5 or 6 per cent. There is no reason to be surprised that a candidate of Twentyman’s reputation and celebrity should be able to achieve 20 per cent of the vote, or that he should do so primarily at Labor’s expense given his ideological orientation.
8.09pm. Postal votes reel Labor in 0.4 per cent and boost Twentyman 0.3 per cent.
8.05pm. Deer Park Central boosts Labor 0.2 per cent, and cuts Matic’s lead over Twentyman from 1.3 per cent to 0.8 per cent.
8.03pm. Slow going with the remaining booths. It’s worth pointing out that Twentyman is not actually ahead of Jenny Matic on the primary vote, but will presumably get there on preferences.
7.51pm. Note that Tania Walters’ swing compares her performance with her result in 2006 as Family First candidate.
7.44pm. All booths bar Churchill Reserve and two in Deer Park have now been added. The error which omitted the Greens from the above results has been corrected.
7.28pm. St Albans North added, reining in Labor 0.5 per cent. 20 per cent counted, eight booths to come.
7.19pm. St Albans West booth in, confirming what I said in the previous entry.
7.14pm. Albanvale booth in. Primary vote swings suggest Labor will land a little below 50 per cent on the primary vote, but come close enough to retain the seat.
7.07pm. Creekside booth in. Table above shows primary vote swings comparing like with like from 2006, and a 2PP result based on raw primary vote with my own guess of the preferences.
6.00pm. Polls close. I am told that the VEC will be posting results on the half hour, so presumably we can expect to see the first serious results at 7pm.