Morgan: 61-39

Yet another bad poll for Brendan Nelson, this time from Morgan who have combined two weekends’ worth of face-to-face polling after going quiet last week. This has Labor’s two-party lead up to 61-39 from 58.5-41.5 at the previous poll conducted on June 7/8, which was also face-to-face. Labor is up from 48.5 per cent to 52 per cent on the primary vote, with the Coalition down from 36 per cent to 34 per cent.

I have also obtained complete results from the Essential Research poll earlier in the week which showed Labor leading 59-41. Included are demographic breakdowns and attitudinal polling on Kevin Rudd, climate change, the Senate and “Igaunagate”. Turns out the company does its research through an online panel, similar to what ACNielsen were doing during the election campaign.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

87 comments on “Morgan: 61-39”

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  1. I can’t wait to hear from the Murdoch press after this week-end with headlines screaming “Rudd’s Honeymoon is Over”. I think that will be about the fifth time they have called it since Rudd became leader of Labor in December 2006!

  2. That’s a real mess for the ALP up that way: two of their most talented ministers for one winnable seat. If Bonson is going to take Fong Lim, surely it’d make some sense to consider slotting Natt into Fannie Bay or Nhulunbuy, where Clare Martin and Syd Stirling are retiring.

    It’ll be interesting to see how Garry Lambert goes, but I suspect he’s screwed unless he runs in Port Darwin, and even then I suspect Sacilotto is probably safe for this election at least.

    Drysdale, Brennan and Goyder look pretty likely wins for the CLP, but I would be surprised if they went much further than this this time. Also wouldn’t be too surprised if Warren hung on in Goyder, although the redistribution doesn’t help.

  3. In the interests of balance etc – is there anybody out there – even you, “Glen”?? – prepared to defend or explain Nelson and Turnbull’s actions in associating themselves with the attack on Ken Henry for daring (1) to take a holiday at all and (2) (worse) spending it helping save endangered species rather than skiing or snorting coke or whatever high achievers would be forgiven for doing and (3) mainly of course for having intelligence and integrity

    I remember thinking in 1975 the Whitlam govt was doomed when it was clear there was public warfare between them and the professionals in Treasury. Nelson was of course already looking simply so dispensible, but I think Turnbull has just pressed his own flush button with this one.

  4. The Ken Henry story (or non-story) was odd. Henry is entitled to holidays like anyone else. If he had of been taking time off to go to visit relatives would the Liberals have attacked as hard? I doubt it, but it was a “green” cause they just wanted to attempt to discredit Henry a little in the minds of talk back radio listeners.
    One of the biggest liablities the Public Service has at the moment is people have not been using their leave up, which in causes planning headaches as everyone wants to take it at once.

  5. although the redistribution doesn’t help.

    Indeed, it throws a bit of a spanner in the prediction game, and I admit I am not up to speed with the new changes.

    Garry Lambert is an interesting candidate.

  6. Surely these sitting members would better serve their party by staying put and contesting their marginal seats, rather than retreating to safer territory.

    Things may not be as grim as they look: all those seats picked up at the last election will no longer contain the personal votes of the former CLP members. And if you look at recent election cycles other states, the opposition parties don’t always rebound strongly from landslide defeats.

  7. Interesting that, as Turnbull and Nelson prepare to go on umpteen weeks holiday, they choose to criticise Henry for doing the same.

    And if public servants are such apparent bludgers and shirkers, why was the Opposition defending them against being allegedly overworked just a few short weeks ago?

    These clowns – Nelson and turnbull – are just so much of a joke. They’re embarrassing.

    BTW. All those “Turnbull will take over and that’ll be a good thing” artists from a few months ago: I told youse he’d show up in his true colors eventually. And he has. We’ve had a few tossers as PM in our history, but none so bad as Turnbull would have been. I think he sees the writing on the wall for his ambitions, too, and this explains a lot of his recent dummy-spitting.

  8. Loved this. another OO bootstrapping campaign.

    Start off with a little bit of discussion among Cabinet members, nuances of points of view, that kind of thing. But call it “Splinters Cabinet”… a run down of the OO’s on-line front page:

    Climate strategy splinters cabinet
    Dennis Shanahan, Political editor PRESSURE over a new greenhouse gas regime and the looming Garnaut report on emissions trading is fuelling deep Rudd cabinet divisions.

    HOWES: Unionist’s nuclear proposal slammed
    NUCLEAR POWER: Teenagers split on switch
    DENNIS SHANAHAN: Feeling the heat on carbon
    LENORE TAYLOR: Energy headache

    And, as night follows day, sum it up via an Editorial, predicting gloom, doom and vicious infighting among the Rudd lackies (actually, they all hate him, you see):

    EDITORIAL: Confusion reigns in climate response

    You might even be able to write another story claiming the Rudd government is a “oncer”, as apparently someone did at the A-A Leadership meeting in the States (but of course, we didn’t get to find out who it was).

    Torches? Pitchforks? Villagers?

    After they went after the Rudd Monster last week because his cabinet was in crisis (or was it totally under the thumb of a “control freak”? I lose track sometimes…), the villagers’ blood will be up. Maybe they can burn him at the stake for the second time in a fortnight?

    As stories like this go, it’s a pretty weak one, but we did get the concept of a “one term government” in the form of the word “oncer” tacked on. The voters only need “permission” to think the unthinkable, according to Glenn Milne last week. When they receive this permission from Murdoch’s hacks you know and Rudd is O.U.T. in 2010. Or so the theory goes…

  9. BB – Isn’t it good the OO has failed to move public opinion because the vast majority of the public don’t read their BS and of those who do at best 50% would believe anything they write.

  10. I’ve been laid low with the flu the past week but it’s good to see Kev is still receiving plenty of praise.

    “The UN secretary-general has praised the Australian federal government’s commitment to multilateral diplomacy.
    “I welcome the renewed and strengthened activism of the Australian government to strengthening multilateralism,” Mr Ban told The Weekend Australian newspaper in his New York office.

    He heaped praise on Kevin Rudd, recalling his first meeting with the prime minister in Bali at the climate change summit.
    “When Prime Minister Rudd was first inaugurated, the first act he took was signing the Kyoto protocol in Bali in December last year,” Mr Ban said.
    “He became a hero at the time. There was overwhelming welcome and applause, and praise for him by the member states.”

    Mr Ban has met with Mr Rudd several times in New York and at the NATO summit in Bucharest.
    “I am very happy to work with Australia and particularly with Prime Minister Kevin Rudd,” he said.

    He also endorsed Mr Rudd’s proposal for an Asia-Pacific union.

    http://news.smh.com.au/national/un-praises-rudds-multilateral-approach-20080628-2ybf.html

  11. 63
    dartboard Says:

    well.. someone is on the ball about the NT

    Antony Green?

    Looks like a good analysis. Though I am still not sure that Brennan is notionally Labor, but we shall see before too much longer.

  12. #64…

    But, but… I thought Rudd was a foreign policy failure, his office was a shambles, his Asia idea was pure spin, he’d upset the Japanese and kow-towed to the Chinese, plus wrecked the Alliance.

    I read somewhere that the public was hankering for a new Opposition leader so they would then have “permission” to vote KRudd and his bunch of Labor Losers out at the 2010 election, so Joe Hocvkey, Peter Costello and Brendan Nelson (or Malcolm Turnbull) would show us all how to run a country properly? You know… solve climate change by doing nothing except taking 5c a litre off petrol, reinstitute alco pop tax loopholes, pay everyone one-off bonuses around election time, cosy up with theYanks again, and call Belinda Neal’s behavior “disgraceful”.

    Was I dreaming?

  13. I have no doubt there is robust discussion on Climate Change and the Garnaut Report in Cabinet and the existence of different strongly held views within the Cabinet. If it was Howard’s Cabinet there would be total agreement with what Howard said and little real discussion.

    This is probably the most important and politically sensitive issue that Cabinet has to deal with this term. It is no wonder Murdock’s group are digging around early and trying to stir up trouble. After all they don’t really believe in this stuff anyway.

    With the polls showing up the Opposition and Rudd’s Gov’t streets ahead, I can see the Murdock papers and their fellow traveling mates the Libs getting more and more vicious in their criticisms. They are becoming more than frustrated and more than desperate – I mean, no one (so far) is taking any notice of them. Stupid voters!!

    How does Shanahan know what is going on in Cabinet? Is he hearing little snipets and then making up a story himself? Is it ALL imagination? Or is it the PS?

    Cabinet meetings are supposed to be secret. An attack like this is really an attack on our country. I am sure that is no exageration.

    Anyway I expect more viciousness from this part of the media as this unfolds. I mean there could be a balance and a series of articles on the infighting of the NSW Liberal Party and other States but I don’t expect to see it!!

  14. Rodent was the Army’s pin up boy don’t forget. He loved nothing better than posing in a flack jacket with the boys. So I guess it follows that his daughter Brenda would be well received lol.

  15. “It’s certainly very tight and you would expect in an environment where the government is only seven months into the job and in a bit of a honeymoon, the government would do strongly.”

    So now its official from the mouth of Brenda – The Honymoon is not over. πŸ˜›

  16. Of course in that 7 months Brendan expects the government would have changed the world by now. He is all over the shop.

  17. Gary 68
    The Courier Mail is really an awful rag. You are right about the intellectual level regarding politics – I think it would be equivalent to about 14 years of age.
    But I suppose you could say that about any of the Murdock tabloids.

  18. I don’t think Sky Noos would be referring to Essential Research data if they thought it was associated with the ALP.

  19. Thanks for making that Essenial Research available William.

    One thing that really struck me was that 2/3rds of coalition supporters thought the government was not doing enough on climate change. Only a small minority thought they were doing too much (suggesting that coalition supporters are more keen on action on climate chnage than Labor supporters).

    You would have thought, listening to the coailtion in parliament, that their supporters would believe Rudd was doing too much.

  20. Murdoch of course is not silly. By employing low grade and low skilled hacks to run and write for his papers, with little principal and low moral fibre and that can pick up every dog whistle from the master, well thats how he gets the results wanted. He made sure to employ people easily manipulated and with limited intelligence.

    We shouldn’t wonder then that the The Australian and the other murdoch papers are probably the worst quality papers in the Asia Pacific region.

    Even the Bangkok post often attempts to be honest with their politics and they have a murderous military hacks looking over their shoulder. Yet our local rags endeavor to promote a talentless mob in chaos and to undermine the government, who it must be said are in a different higher league in the talent stakes.

    He would have been better off and got better quality at a lower price he he had gone straight to the Young Liberals for his journalists and managers.

    The managers of The Australian and has turned the paper into a worthless rag, barely worth the paper it is written on.

    I am guessing these journalists are suffering from suddenly becoming irrelevant and that has increased their hatred of the government and Rudd. They have a real government now that wont feed them billions in free advertising gifts.

    What makes it worse for them all now is with Howard gone their is no hiding that they are low quality hacks.

  21. ruawake Says: June 28th, 2008 at 5:12 pm Geoff 377 – 383 Sussex street is a big multi storey building. There are hundreds of tenants.

    Hmmm

    If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it must be a duck.

    I can only say that, in dealing with assorted denizens of that building (and others nearby; and even renting part of one) over more than 25 years, the ALP pulse beats strongly throughout it.

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