Morgan: 61-39

Yet another bad poll for Brendan Nelson, this time from Morgan who have combined two weekends’ worth of face-to-face polling after going quiet last week. This has Labor’s two-party lead up to 61-39 from 58.5-41.5 at the previous poll conducted on June 7/8, which was also face-to-face. Labor is up from 48.5 per cent to 52 per cent on the primary vote, with the Coalition down from 36 per cent to 34 per cent.

I have also obtained complete results from the Essential Research poll earlier in the week which showed Labor leading 59-41. Included are demographic breakdowns and attitudinal polling on Kevin Rudd, climate change, the Senate and “Igaunagate”. Turns out the company does its research through an online panel, similar to what ACNielsen were doing during the election campaign.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

87 comments on “Morgan: 61-39”

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  1. So now ‘heading in the right direction’ equates to a ‘Government Confidence Register’. FFS, when will he realise there is SFA correlation between his polling on TPP and Primaries and his bloody heading in the right direction question?

  2. For Frank from an earlier thread.

    Frank,
    Why bother with Howie? He came over to Sydney a few years ago, carried on like a dork and ending as an asterisk rating on 2SM which, in turn, vanished from the ratings itself. In truth, his audience here really could have fitted into the proverbial phone booth. Not to disparage smaller cities, but he was a joke in the big smoke and I can’t think of a single reason why the same would not apply in Perth.
    Then again, I was over there a few years back when an Aussie girl broke the world record in pole vault. The fact that she was an Aussie was basically ignored but THE POLE was manufactured in WA, thereby making it a WA world record and therefore nothing to do with the hated eastern staters. It can be a strange place…

  3. Another bad poll for the Tories. Brendan Nelson must be painfully aware of the Grim Reaper closing in on him. Question is: who will the Reaper be? Allbull? Puppet Costello? Tony Rabbott?

  4. At least Morgan analysis is closer to the mark than shamahamanan (you know who I mean):
    “Roy Morgan Qualitative Research shows clearly that while the electorate is concerned about economic issues, it does not see the L-NP as a credible Opposition. If an election were held now, the ALP would be easily returned due to the weak Opposition. ”

    While I think this is a little harsh on Labor by implying that a credible opposition would romp it in, it does suggest that the ‘great economic managers’ reputation has slipped from the Libs grasp.

  6. From previous thread.

    @Just Me

    Malcolm Mackerras predicting in the event of an NT election that there would be a swing to the opposition of 5 seats and more, but not enough to form government.

    Named Brennan, Drysdale and Goyder as first to go.

  10. In the NT it all went down after Marshall Perron called it quits in his deal with Shane Stone. Stone thereafter trashed the credibility of the CLP with his overt attitude to Indigenous issues and self interest. The little B used to be my Minster many moons ago.

  12. Abbott reportedly had 6 supporters when he put his hand up for leader after the last election (and I really want to know who these 6 are!). I doubt he will be leader next. And I don’t believe that Malcolm “Look at Me” Turnbull will be the next leader either. The conservative faction in the Libs will never give him a shot willingly so he would need the numbers to do it. He might have come very close last time, but his performance lately (post-budget, his website, paying for research on himself etc.) will have turned a lot of the party room against him. My guess is he wouldn’t have the level of supporters that he once did in the party. My guess is that Mincham will put another useless puppet on the throne…either Hockey or Bishop.

  14. Dave,

    A leadership team of Abbott and Costello does seem apt for the Liberal Party at the moment.

    The question is who’s on first ?

  15. Perversely, perhaps we should hope the Nationals have a huge victory in Gippsland tomorrow, which would keep Brenda in the big seat until the end of the year, and thus the Liberals sink further into the shit! I’m sure Labor prefers things the way they are at present!

  16. Did I actually read somewhere that Nelson was suggesting he expects the ALP to win Gippsland?

    He must be the most pathetic political point scorer this country has seen.

  17. Which state or territory was the last to go Labor (and thus giving Labor every state and territory) and when?

  18. After Malcolm Turnbull’s deranged comments about Dr Henry this morning I definitely don’t want to see him anywhere near the leadership.

    Anyone who would use a critically endangered animal, and one he should’ve done more to protect when he was Environment Minister, to score a political point is lower than you can imagine.

    So much for being a more progressive, small ‘l’ liberal. At least it’s what you’d expect from someone like Abbot.

    Put someone decent in the job please.

  19. Brenda is playing silly buggers. He is positioning himself to say to the media “See I am a terrific leader – Labor could not win Gippsland”.

    Will his party believe him?

  20. LTEP

    I agree with you.

    One thing it does though, is raise my opinion of Henry, what a great thing for him to do.

    It makes me realise that he may be just the kind of person required to look into tax etc. Willing to help – not just look after himself. 🙂

  21. The News Ltd and the Liberal Party attack on Ken Henry today left a bad taste in my mouth! He is entitled to a holiday, and so doing something to save endangered species is a bad thing?

  22. I agree with Mr Shanahan form The Australian; This poll clearly indicates that Rudd is a one term governement.

  23. The SA election in March 2002 was the last time a conservative government lost power.

    So it’s been over 6 years now of all-Labor state/territory governments.

    I reckon Costello would be perfect to play Abbott’s deputy. He’s perfect. No-one does Deputy Liberal Leader like Peter Costello. He was so good no-one wanted to move him out of the role. It’s like Kim Beazley as Opposition Leader. No-one could deliver a concession speech like Kim.

  25. I’m a bit of a fan of Northern Hairy-nosed Wombats.
    So here is a site for those of you who may not be aware that…”The northern hairy-nosed wombat is classified as critically endangered and is one of the rarest animals in the world.”
    http://www.australianfauna.com/northernhairynosedwombat.php
    Recently a second colony was established elsewhere, splitting the current estimated total population of 115 animals.

    Knowing that Ken Henry is an active wombat fan enhances my respect for him, how the hell did he survive the Howard years?

  30. Tim, Malcolm Turnbull criticised Ken Henry for taking a month off to caretake for a colony of Northern Hairy-nosed Wombats. There are only 115 NHNW left and they are listed on some lists as the second most critically endangered animal on Earth. They’re looked after by volunteers, who agree to stay at the park for a month at a time in very basic conditions. The volunteers are most definitely needed to maintain the dingo-fence and to ensure no wombats get stuck in traps. One night in the early 2000’s dingos killed 10% of the NHNW population, which goes to show what an important job it is.

    Honestly, I don’t know what point the Shadow Treasurer was trying to score. The fact that Dr Henry has prioritised looking after such a critically endangered animal should be applauded not ridiculed.

    Again, I urge those of you who don’t know much about the plight of the northern hairy-nosed wombat to do some casual reading sometime because it really is very sad. Also, think about talking to your local member about the urgent action that is required to ensure the survival of the population.

    Also, hope it’s not minded if I post a link to a video on the ABC website about recent efforts to save the wombat:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2008/05/09/2240696.htm

    Really off topic but it’s an issue I feel very strongly about.

  33. a sample
    Jack the Insider
    Fri 27 Jun 08 (12:22am) Piers Akerman says Kevin Rudd can solve the problems of Zimbabwe by having a word in the ear of Hu Jintao. It was a silly piece of ratbagery as I’ve every come across. Today, Piers thinks Rudd and FIFA can solve the Zimbabwean crisis. Still think he’s spot on, do you?

    sorry if this is in 3 posts im new to this cut/paste malarky

  34. LTEP
    “Really off topic but it’s an issue I feel very strongly about.”

    Me too.
    I attended the 1994 First national Cobference on Wombats at which time there was thought to be only 75 NH-nW animals left.
    Establishing a second colony was recommended over 14 years ago, but it has only just happened at a cost of $3 million, which, lets face it, is chicken feed.
    And, by the way, the situation of the Southern Hairy-nosed Wombats, although superficially appearing much better, is in fact quite precarious.

    And the same can be said for a lot of other animals in theis country, Mallee Fowl for example.
    We really have a disgraceful record, one which should be higher on the political priority list.

  35. That Essential Media poll that Billbowe’s provided has a major flaw in it that overestimates the ALP vote.

    If you look at the demographic breakdown, the final age category is 50-65 years of age.

    You’ll also notice that the sample size for that cohort has been overweighted. That’s because they seem to be using that group to not only represent the 50-65s, but also as a surrogate for the 66+ demographic that they probably dont have enough online participants of that age to use.

    The big problem here is that the Coalitions strongest voting demographic by age is actually the 65+ cohort – it’s the only age cohort where they dominate to any large extent.

    The 50-65s are boomers – they’re an entirely different group with completely different voting dynamics.

    This poll probably blows out the ALP primary vote by about 2% and the TPP by about 3% from a real rough back of the envelope calculation.

    The only way they could get around it is if they are playing with the responses from that 50-65 cohort and and adding a Coalition premium onto the component of it that is supposed to represent the 66+ group. But that would be foolish and is a thing usually done in the US, not here. Either that or they’ve made a printing mistake… but that doesn’t ring true either considering the vote estimates.

  36. Perhaps Turnbull was confused and was thinking of the Northern hairy armpitted feminist of the germanist greerus variety.

  38. So thge MSM and their lib mates criticise Rudd for driving the public servants too hard and then criticise Swan for letting one have a holiday. P*ss weak reporting.

    Tom.

  39. From Jack the Insider’s blog:

    A glimmer of hope from a recent column by Dennis Shanahan. He points to the gap closing in the latest Zimbabwean Newspoll results and his analysis indicates that Mugabe will be voted out.

    hehehehehe

  41. dartboard @ 6

    On the face of it, Brennan, Drysdale and Goyder are certainly up for grabs, however the demographics and politics of the NT is changing. It is easy to fall into the trap of thinking that because those seats were historically strong CLP seats, that the last election results were just aberrations, and they will naturally and reliably return to the CLP in due course. They might, or more likely, they are now marginal seats either way.

    Brennan is probably the most likely to go, as I think there was a substantial personal vote against Denis Burke last time around. but he is no longer in the picture.

    The retirement of conservative independent Loraine Braham from Braitling (which has always been effectively CLP) will almost certainly return that seat to the CLP.

    I still think that regaining maybe 3 seats is the best bet for the CLP at the next election. They have no hope of gaining government.

    Kina @ 10
    In the NT it all went down after Marshall Perron called it quits in his deal with Shane Stone. Stone thereafter trashed the credibility of the CLP with his overt attitude to Indigenous issues and self interest. The little B used to be my Minster many moons ago.

    Not to mention his appalling arrogance and grab for power in the statehood debacle. Stone was probably the worst thing to ever happen to the CLP.

  44. “18 LTEP Says: After Malcolm Turnbull’s deranged comments about Dr Henry this morning I definitely don’t want to see him anywhere near the leadership.”

    This is a major flaw with Turnbull. He has lots of self confidence but no political nous.

    He has tried to undermine the RBA, ACCC and head of Treasury a few times. I believe all people see these as independent non political creatures and most would be aware that they came from the Howard era. The attack is pointless. It does no harm to the government and no political good for Turnbull. He just comes over as being a bit precious.

    Leaders don’t snipe over trivia at political or non-political figures, it only shows them as small minded.

    The idea of the head of Treasury and endangered wombats would be a positive image maker for Henry. It humanises him.

    I believe Bishop was trying to fly her flag for the leadership lately using the Rudd has a chaotic mind biz.

  47. bring on turnbull – he stuffed the republic – he’ll certainly stuff the libs even further. I remember going out with a girl at uni whose parents lived near Turnbull. Even these blue bloods could not stand the arrogance of Mal and Luce

  48. OH GAWD! if Esmerelda becomes leader then labor is guaranteed being in government for over twenty years–and thats not healthy.

  49. You know the liberal party is so dysfunctional at the moment it is hard to guess what they will do. I just wish they would get on with it so whatever comes after a Liberal party controlled by right wing nutters happens.

  50. @ 41

    and now, in a not very secret squirrel moment, Dave Tollner declares himself as a candidate for Fong Lim.

    I see Matty Bonson is advertising a BBQ this weekend as Matthew Bonson MLA, Fong Lim.

    I guess that resolves any Chris Natt moves.

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