Gippsland by-election live

Vote Swing 2PP
Darren Chester (Nationals) 24,184
12.2% 66.2% 7.2%
Darren McCubbin (Labor) 16,147
-9.3% 33.8% -7.2%
Rohan Fitzgerald (Liberal) 12,369
Malcolm McKelvie (Greens) 4,430
Ben Buckley (LDP) 2,731

8.38pm. Hooray! The AEC finally adds booth results.

8.14pm. The final booth has given the Nationals a big boost, pushing the swing to a headline-grabbing 7.25 per cent on the AEC figures. However, Antony Green’s booth-on-booth comparison (which I can’t do because the AEC doesn’t have booth-level figures on its website – the above is based on my earlier guess of how preferences would go) has it at 6.2 per cent.

7.49pm. All booths now in. My preference projection has the swing at 7.2 per cent, but the AEC notional count with three booths outstanding has it at 6.3 per cent.

7.35pm. Yet more good news for the Nationals with the addition of two Traralgon booths and Bairnsdale East – boosting the swing to 7.3 per cent on my figures. However, I’m still using my old preference guess, and these evidently flatter the Nationals a little. The ABC site, which is using the actual notional counts, has it at 6.6 per cent, although my figures are slightly more recent.

7.31pm. Bruthen and Glengarry added; the swing continues to bounce around in a narrow range around 6.5 per cent.

7.27pm. Devon North and Sale North added.

7.24pm. Six more booths added, including Lakes Entrance and Paynesville, adding a further 0.2 per cent to the swing.

7.17pm. Now 70 booths in and 45.7 per cent counted, 17 to come. The Nationals are obviously on the receiving end of a handsome swing, currently of 6.5 per cent.

7.11pm. Nine more booths, including Maffra and one each from Traralgon and Sale, have pushed the Nationals swing up to 6.8 per cent. 37.9 per cent counted.

7.05pm. Five more booths, including Traralgon East and Orbost, and the results are still better for the Nationals, with the swing sticking at 5.3 per cent. 24.5 per cent counted.

7.01pm. I’ve corrected an error that made the ALP primary vote swing come up as 0.0%. These primary booth swings, like the 2PP swing, are comparing like booths with like.

6.59pm. 50 booths now in, with two of the new ones from Morwell, bringing the swing back down a little.

6.55pm. Seven more booths in, all small rural ones, but they have boosted the Nationals swing still further.

6.50pm. 35 booths in, including Hazelwood North and Lakes Entrance East, adding up to 11.32 per cent counted, and the swing has increased further – now 5.7 per cent.

6.45pm. Antony Green has apparently called it for the Nationals.

6.44pm. By the way, the primary vote swing recorded above for the Nationals is really for the Coalition as a whole – i.e. I have added the Nationals and Liberal vote and compared it to the Nationals vote last time.

6.41pm. 23 booths now in, still a swing to the Nationals showing across the rural booths.

6.37pm. Fifteen booths now in in the above table, and the swing to the Nationals is still holding – though this is only 2.4 per cent of enrolled voters. All the booths are rural bar one – Morwell North. Love to give you a result there, but I don’t think the AEC is providing them.

6.30pm. The above table is based on the first eight booths; there are now 15 in. I usually have teething problems with my tables early on, so don’t quote me on the above quite yet.

6.21pm. Five small booths in. Do I have this right – the AEC isn’t going to let us see individual booth results, but just give a tick to indicate that the booth is in?

6.00pm. Polls close. I will be providing booth-adjusted results on a table soon to be added at the top of the post. I will be doing this manually and thus will not be quite as quick off the mark as those provided by Antony Green and the AEC. Antony will also be live blogging. You can also listen to two hours of live coverage at ABC Gippsland Radio.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

103 comments on “Gippsland by-election live”

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  1. Tomorrow headlines will either read “Honeymoon over” or “Nelson: Dead Man Walking”. In reality, neither will be 100% true. Nelson’s leadership is not going to rely solely on a single byelection result and Rudd’s Honeymoon has been over for months already; we been told that many times already.

    Another thing will be if there is a swing to the Nationals and the story plays well in the media, then I think some of the fear of the losing byelections in the other seats where ex-ministers are thinking about going will disappear and the ex-ministers will go slowly over the next six months. But if its a line ball election (say 2.5% or greater to the ALP), then expect there to be a lot of pressure on Downer and others to stay.

  2. The following quote is from Anthony Green

    By Antony Green


    9 booths in, it looks like the swing is settling at 3%. Unless something astonishing happens in the LaTrobe Valley, that should eb close to the swing.

  3. A 3.3% swing to the Nationals, a good result for them! I think it goes to show that the Nationals are actually in good shape in Victoria as seen with them picking up Narracan and Morwell at State level!

  4. Clearly this is the beginning of the end for the Rudd Government. When the histories are written Gippsland will be known as the new Bass.

  5. [Clearly this is the beginning of the end for the Rudd Government. When the histories are written Gippsland will be known as the new Bass.]

    What are you on?

  6. Eddie St John! Mate don’t get too excited, it is a very good win for the Nations now looking at a 5% swing and really Chester is the best candidate!

  7. What’s the deal with the Liberal result. How does it compare to local state seats and the previous Gippsland by-election (although that was probably way too long ago to mean anything)?

  8. You know what’s really funny ESJ?

    If Rudd lasts at least three terms as most governments do, Sophie Mirabella will have had to wait about 17 years to be a minister – who wants to spend all those years of your life with little or no reward

  9. Anthony Green ask a question is this a bad result for the ALP!

    I think its a little early to answer that but at this stage this is a strong result for the ALP but in writing that had the National Party lost this seat then that would hurt them considering more than this result looks like hurting the ALP.

  10. The ALP really only have very themselves to blame for going backwards. The imposing of a candidate who joined the party on the day of pre-selection and won’t be party member by mid next year is not a real good way of getting the base on side. And he was not a top quality candidate either. Plus they ran a very bad campaign.

    They were never going to win this time but they shouldn’t have gone backwards.

  11. This is a by-election. People know the government can’t be thrown out. what more can you expect under the present economic circumstances?

  12. The 5.4% swing is as good as it gets for the Nats, the bigger booths win be better for Labor – but it is still a Nat win.

  13. I’m agreeing with Blair, it is a poor result for the ALP in writing that there is little in it for the Nationals other than they have some new talent and have returned this seat to safe

  14. Rural seats do have a lot of small booths. I was once in charge of a booth in a rural seat where all of 39 people voted. 35 for one candidate.

  15. You aint seen propaganda until you see tomorrow’s paper Ed where your little touch of irony will be stated as fact.

  16. @34

    thats not a booth…

    Theres a mobile booth in the NT at the local prison with 11 electors.

    At the Fed Election “Tough on Crime” Dave Tollner got zero votes.

  17. Hmmm this looks like a hiding, the swing back to the Nationals is bigger than the swing to the ALP last November.
    What annoys me is that the media will strike and insist the honeymoon is finally over. At least now we can get down to business.

  18. 41 A-C – Let me repeat it is a by-election in very trying economic circumstances and with a poor Labor candidate. I saw him interviewed. It was embarrassing.

  19. There is no doubt in my mind that if there was a general election now Labor would still win and win well. This is a conservative electorate.

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