State Newspoll bonanza, episode two. The Australian reports the latest bi-monthly survey of Victorian state voting intention shows Labor’s lead narrowing from 58-42 in March/April to 55-45, their primary vote lead down from 44-36 to 41-38. More to follow.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
I love the way that the Oz reports it as Labor collapsing. 55-45 is a pretty landslide lead.
…and is exactly the same (well, give or take .6 of a %) as the results at the last Victorian election.
Teh floundering LOL
Luckily the states only have to put up with the Oz’s national aspirationalist view of the world every 2 or 3 months, instead of fortnightly like the feds.
Mike Steketee (The OO)
“In Victoria, John Brumby runs the most competent state government but he cannot match the levels of popularity achieved by Steve Bracks. This makes the Government more vulnerable to a change of fortune. And Ted Baillieu has grown in voter appeal.
However, it is impossible to conclude from a three-point drop in support in a single poll that the rot has started for Labor. The vote for the Greens is up by a similar amount, suggesting it could well return to Labor in preferences.
And, like in Queensland, the Brumby Government retains the same large margin after preferences that it achieved in 2006.”
Puts this poll into perspective as well doesn’t it?
“Labor’s falling support in Victoria means the Rudd honeymoon is over” – I didn’t read this anywhere, but surely I should have.