Bits and pieces

Seems Morgan have taken the week off, not counting its release of qualitative findings from federal polling conducted from June 4 to 9, leaving the following collection to stand on its own:

• The Launceston Examiner has published findings from an EMRS poll showing new Tasmanian Premier David Bartlett leading Liberal leader Will Hodgman 46 per cent to 32 per cent as preferred premier, whereas Paul Lennon trailed 32 per cent to 17 per cent in the poll immediately before his resignation. Hat tip to Peter Tucker.

• A poll by new kids on the block Essential Research shows Labor with a two-party lead of 59-41. The AAP report says this means Labor has “dropped one point”, but I think they might have missed the poll published on June 2 which had the score at 56-44.

• Brisbane’s Sunday Mail has published results from its Queensland Galaxy survey (its state-level findings are discussed here) on Liberal federal leadership preference, showing Peter Costello leading Malcolm Turnbull and Brendan Nelson with 30 per cent, 23 per cent and 14 per cent respectively. Respondents were also quizzed on petrol, maternity leave and the budget, though not (federal) voting intention.

• Ian McAllister of Australian National University and Juliet Clark of Deakin University have produced a report entitled Trends in Australian Political Opinion: Results from the Australian Election Study, 1987-2007, updating an earlier effort from before last year’s election. Hats off to News Limited for reporting the story thus. I haven’t read it yet, but these graphs from Crikey were absorbing enough that I’ve decided to pinch them:

• The Redistribution Committee for the Northern Territory has recommended no change to the boundaries of Solomon and Lingiari. Opponents of the status quo have until July 18 to register their displeasure. That is also the projected date for publication of proposed new boundaries for Western Australia (UPDATE: the date has been put back to August 1), with Tasmania to follow on August 22.

• Four days to go until the Gippsland by-election, on which discussion is invited here. Also on Saturday is a Victorian state by-election for Kororoit, vacated by one-time Police Minister Andre Haermeyer, where prominent charity worker and Phil Cleary ally Les Twentyman is taking the challenge up to Labor candidate Marlene Kairouz. More on this shortly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

220 comments on “Bits and pieces”

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  2. From memory, he assessed that question in a paper on voluntary voting, and used that question to try and assess whether the question on whether people would vote under voluntary voting could be relied on. If you find it, it was a brilliant paper, but requires a good knowledge of statistics.

    I think the paper is –
    Non-Compulsory Voting in Australia?: what surveys can (and can’t) tell us
    Electoral Studies. 1999. 18:29-48.

    No link sorry.

  3. Thanks dartboard, that is what I thought. (BTW, should just mention I am a Top End resident, though not in direct contact with the inner workings of government any longer.)

    ••••••••••

    84
    onimod Says:
    Europe had generally moved in the direction of taxing vehicles on engine capacity,…

    Hasn’t New Zealand had a de facto tax for decades, in the form of very high registration fees, for any standard passenger car over 2 litre engine capacity?

    Any UnZudders here can tell us?

    ••••••••••

    And as for Greg Hunt’s performance on 7:30 Report tonight, wasn’t he supposed to be one of the Coalition’s rising young stars?

  4. CENTRE, we’re all fallable human beings, we can all make mistakes, how many cases have you heard about where someone has identified an offender only for it to be found out later it was mistaken identity?,it’s awfully hard to pick someone up, brush them off and say sorry after you’ve executed them, then what about the executioner?, how can anyone live with being a legalised murderer? it would have to catch up with them emotionally eventually,how would you go about choosing someone to do your dirty work for you? i’d like to think we are better than that, i’ve sat through quite a few murder trials supporting the victims families concerned and i can honestly say that not one of them wanted a death penalty, maybe losing someone through the deliberate actions of another makes you value anothers life– i don’t know, i hav’nt got all of the answers, all i know as i wrote previously– sentenced never to be released if an offender is deemed to be an threat to the greater population is all i can offer.

  7. I just watched Greg Hunt’s 7:30 report performance on the ABC website. Talk about 9 minutes of incomprehensible gobbledy-gook. He obviously had nothing to say except for a couple of well-rehearsed catchphrases. Kerry O’brien was having a field day! For most of the interview it looked like Hunt was wishing that that parachute had failed to open…

  8. Antony

    The time of the decision on peoples votes is interesting, particularly given the pole narrowing in 2007 in the last week and the media speculation on polling day in 2004. What is your analysis of these figures?

  9. Yes but Judy I am saying only if proven guilty 100% without any doubt.

    Killing over drugs and serious criminal activity, in cold blood, out in the open, in public, in front of children (how would you live the rest of your life to witness a parent being shot dead in front of your eyes)?

    No way – capital punishment for sure!

  10. Centre, I don’t agree with you, but that’s by the by.

    This is an argument you can’t possibly win when Judy takes the opposite position.

  12. ok Centre–are you going to do the deed? or do you want to delegate it to someone else? i guess we’ll have to agree to disagree lol, how does anyone live through a loved one being murdered? i guess they survive, humans DO survive the most horrific circumstances, i’ve seen it all–the results of post traumatic stress syndrome etc, but somehow they survive, i loathe the term victims, i much prefer survivers, this “bleeding heart” old fossil is eternally grateful we live in a country that has left the days of capital punishment behind in the dim dark past.
    aint it grand that we can blog freely with differing opinions and not worry, gosh i love my beloved OZ.

  13. it’s way past midnight and that redneck Bob Francis has finished his radio stint for the night so it’s safe to toddle off to my nice comfy bed and turn the talkback on, thanks for the debate Centre {though i dont think it made us popular with William} g’night all.

  14. [it’s way past midnight and that redneck Bob Francis has finished his radio stint for the night so it’s safe to toddle off to my nice comfy bed and turn the talkback on]

    And it’s rather ironic that both he andKeith McGowan were both Top 40 DJ’s in the Permissive 60’s in Adelaide and Perth (in Keith’s case) but now present very right wing views contrary to the music thy played at the time, ie Bob Dylan, The Stones and The Beatles.

  15. pmsl Frank, Francis goes for the shock jock stuff and whenever anything about V.E. comes up in the papers he does a rant about him and would love to get me commenting on air, pigs would fly before i’d bother to help his ratings, now i’m really off to bed.

  19. Hunt’s woeful performance on 7.30 raises one point. Fuel efficient cars.

    This of course is a good idea, but Mr Hunt how much will this cost? If we do not use high petrol prices to force people to buy these vehicles what do we do?

    Increase registation fees for gas guzzlers?
    Reduce tax on fuel efficient cars?

    Or maybe we all get a free new car – would only cost about $400 billion. 🙂

  20. The bootstrapping campaign continues, feeding off its own fury, working itself into a fireball. From Malcolm turnbull’s article in the Herald this morning:

    The recent reports of a chaotic Prime Minister’s office ring disturbingly true. There is a growing concern in the community that this new Government is not in control, that it is reacting from one crisis to another, focused on the daily news cycle instead of the long term.

    “Recent reports?” Now, where have I heard that phrase before?

    The villagers are out with their torches and pitchforks, marching into the town square to burn the Rudd Monster alive. Open your windows and take a look…

    […crickets…]

    This campaign to dummy-up the news is so laughable it makes my sides hurt.

  21. Bushfire Bill, why on earth give the egoistic Turnbull credence and legitimacy by reading the crap he would write? i’ve given up on reading anything any pollie writes AND the right wing ranters–i feel so much better for it.

  22. BB I wonder how that sits with Julie’s assertion that Rudd knows everything that is going on in his department because he is a “control freak”?

  25. June 25 (Bloomberg) — New Zealand’s consumer confidence fell in the second quarter, to the lowest level since the 1991 recession, amid surging credit, food and gasoline prices.

    So I guess Kevin Rudd is having an effect across the ditch. If Mesmerelda is to be believed. 🙂

  26. Centre Says:
    June 25th, 2008 at 12:12 am

    No way – capital punishment for sure!

    I’ve never really understood this position; for shear revenge keep the sucker alive and let him live out his life in prison with full knowledge of what he has done; killing him gives him an out. Why have some other human being destroy their humanity to give him the out?

  31. Judee, Judee, Judee….

    Someone has to read this crap. Anyway it was nice to see my prediction that by mid-week the phrase “recent reports of a chaotic Prime Minister’s office…” would be published by one or other of the newspapers, referring to Saturday’s bogus Weekend Australian article by John Lyons.

    I get a thrill out of spotting an old-fashioned News Ltd. bootstrapping campaign early on in its existence. Stage #3 is when Fairfax newspapers start quoting “recent reports” that only surfaced for the first time a couple of days ago and which were largely unsubstantiated by the facts contained in them.

    Call it a quirk of mine.

    Turnbull’s article this morning was particularly schoolboyish, and outright rude in tone, showing not one iota of respect for the office of the Prime Minister. No “Mr. Rudds” were to be seen. Instead it was all “Rudd” this and “Rudd” that. It showed Turnbull’s frustration at being sidelined by the “resurgent” Brendan and demonstrated that our Malcolm is definitely not PM material. He can’t even attempt a decent smackdown article without it sounding like the petulant bleatings of a private school fag.

  32. William,

    Might I suggest you push the Gippsland thread up the batting order so that it appears on the main screen as you enter the blog (if this is possible).

  33. Centre @ 109 –

    Killing over drugs and serious criminal activity, in cold blood, out in the open, in public, in front of children (how would you live the rest of your life to witness a parent being shot dead in front of your eyes)?

    No way – capital punishment for sure!

    Yeah, killing for economic gain, terrible, terrible……but….um…..isn’t that we’ve been doing in Iraq?

    To quote a personal ‘hero’ Smedley Butler:
    “I spent 33 years and four months in active military service and during that period I spent most of my time as a high class muscle man for Big Business, for Wall Street and the bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism. …..Looking back on it, I might have given Al Capone a few hints. The best he could do was to operate his racket in three districts. I operated on three continents.”

  34. At least Allbull says Rudd – Mesmerelda just says He, His or She when referring to the Govt. Its as if she cannot bear to say their name.

  36. Watching the final moments in slow death of the Democrats, there has been a bit of debate in the past week or so about what actually killed them. Many have suggested the GST agreement was the sole reason but the actual cause was a combination of factors. I feel like throwing in my on opinion on the topic. Here are the factors that I can spot:
    1) The number of leaders of the party. They had 11 leaders in 31 years. If one discounts the Chipp and Haines years (13 years), that is average leader life span of 2 years.
    2) In fighting. At one time, only Andrew Murray didn’t want to be leader or deputy. They quickly became a joke and Bartlett’s post-binge brawl with Jeannie Ferris was just the punchline (no pun intended). The 2004 election saw a massive 71% fall in their share of the vote.
    3) Growth of the Greens. Voters interested in Civil libs and Green issues found another group. In a post 911 world, issues like civil rights ended up being owned by the Greens and not the Democrats. The Greens have increased from around 2% to about 9% in three elections.
    4) Becoming Bastards themselves. They went to the 1998 election with a policy of having a GST that didn’t include food with the belief that they would never get the Liberals to agree or the ALP would win. However, the main issue they put to the electorate was that One Nation would get the balance of power in the senate and they would be needed to stop Hanson’s storm troopers. So many voters who voted democrat in 1998 were not wanting a GST at all. Admittedly it didn’t really harm the vote that much in 2001 but it lead to the chaos in the party room that followed.
    5) The party structure. The reason for much of the instability was the Democrat party rules about the membership choosing the leader. Since the early days, the membership also liked dumping sitting senators.

    As for where to now for the democrats, I would suggest they are gone for good. But who knows? The DLP has managed to reappear in the Victorian Upper House and a double dissolution would reduce the required quota. But I just can’t see it happening.

  38. oh dear! it looks like ive stirred a hornets nest by turning from a chronic lurker into a poster, ive been quietly reading and enjoying every post on this site for a long, long time, every now and again i pop my head up to write one liners and then dive back into my bunker lol.
    sorry Centre, i guess i’ve got very strong views on some things and in the past i’ve had to spat with the meeja and pollies to get them across, i tend to get a bit carried away, i do love a good debate though.
    Bushfire Bill, i dearly love your description of the “private school fag” please, please, never lose that wonderful sense of humour or your turn of phrase, it’s given me many light moments, i look forward to many more.
    Zoom, thankyou, i’m not used to a pat on the head, i guess i must have written something right, in real life i’m just an opinionated stubborn old biddy–just ask my family!

  40. cille,

    Actually trying to educate the punters.

    But, then again, go over on the US thread and there will be plenty to support your assessment.

    Cheers.

  41. 132 “Might I suggest you push the Gippsland thread up the batting order so that it appears on the main screen as you enter the blog (if this is possible).”

    GG,the Gippsland thread is already a brightly coloured ad on the top of the left sidebar just under Paypal. Not too hard to find at all really. Perhaps it could have an animated town crier attached complete with bell to attract attention.

  42. steve,

    I actually run my own business. We like to make it very easy for our customers to play. If William is concerned that his contributors are lost or making regular mistakes, then the solution is to review the process rather than criticise the client.

    Or are you a public servant?

  43. 124 – Hysteria is right. A carbon trading scheme without petrol wouldn’t work. For one thing, it would lead to petrol and other oil fuels being used in place of other energy sources.

  44. What is it about votes and funerals- both of them Nelson and Rudd going to a funeral for someone who changed the world and invented great things.

  46. Marky, don’t be such a snob. Jane McGrath could have simply devoted herself to her husband and family during her struggle with breast cancer; noone would have blamed her. Instead she tried to do something positive – for others – with her situation.

    She did change the world, if only a little bit. But the world only gets changed little bits at a time.

    I hope that – given the snideness of your remarks – you have done wonderful things with your life, for others.

    If you haven’t, it’s unwise to slur someone who has, even by inference.

  48. So how well did Rudd, Nelson and Ellis and the rest of these celebrities know her?
    For our pollies it is all about votes instead of compassion.

  50. I have to ask: why were Rudd and Nelson at Jane McGrath’s funeral? Did they know the lady personally? I’m getting tired of politicians attaching themselves to these events.

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