Kentucky fried Clinton

Democratic primaries will be held Wednesday our time in Oregon and Kentucky, which will respectively choose 52 and 51 delegates. Below is another race associated with the latter state, which this year ended with runner-up Eight Belles having to be put down*. Does the knackers’ yard beckon for a certain second-placed Democratic nag? Discuss.

* Unfortunately for my metaphor, Clinton in fact holds a handy 30.5 per cent lead in Kentucky, according to Real Clear Politics. Obama however leads by 12.4 per cent in Oregon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,133 comments on “Kentucky fried Clinton”

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  1. I have said it before but the Kentucky Derby scenario this year is the strongest damn omen and sign i have ever seen in my life.

    Hillary, playing to the lunch bucket crowd on Derby Eve, knocks back a brewski and hands out her tip for the Derby:

    The first filly in the race for over 20 years, Eight Belles, will show that it’s the Year of the Girl she proclaimed.


    The filly Eight Belles runs a game second but breakdowns after the post and has to be euthanised.

    The winner? An undefeated newcomer having only his 3rd start called Big Brown.


    Big Brown has now won the second leg of the triple crown easily and looks like being the new phenominen of the modern era. No horse has won it since Affirmed in 1978.


  2. Come November, the Dems will give up Kentucky for dead. Like Indiana, it’s red-as-red-can-be, and McCain will have to be caught in bed with a young boy or (worse) a communist for the GOP to lose it.

    But Oregon is a pale shade of blue, and a must-win for the Dems in the presidential election. Nestled between Washington State and California, Oregon is increasingly becoming an honorary member of the “Left Coast”, so it’ll be interesting to see how Obama scores here.

  3. Bill Kristol, the deflated windbag of the neocons, is trying to re-inflate the Republican cause:

    …with John McCain, and it’s not really convincing.

    He leaps on California and its Supreme Court and cites the 61% against on a ballot 8 years ago, whilst conveniently not mentioning the most recent poll down to just 51% against. (This is a usual Neocon debating trick: ignore the facts wherever they may be inconvenient truths).

    So, let’s flog the gay issue even though the world is moving on faster than a Neocon’s neuron.

    Secondly, he raises Bush in the Knesset and of course McCain’s parallel ME policies. Yep, Bill, they’re such a winner 6 out of ten want out of Iraq pronto. Appease Iran? Nah, talk to them before you go in with guns blazing though. Even Condi and Macca are on the record saying so.

    And lastly, Republicans have won the presidency with Democrats getting the Congress, so hey, we may just be able to pull it off again, because the HillBilly crowd down the Appalachias won’t vote for no nigga.

    That’s it, ladies and gentleman, the Republican hopes distilled into a bucket of luke warm crud.

  4. Big Brown not only won by five lengths, but from the far outside position in the field.

    I’m with HH, it’s some omen! LOL

    Sad about Hillary though, er, I mean, her horse! A long way back second and a fall. Gotta say, it was surely an omen!

  5. Good Evening, Bludgers,

    1674, Jen Says: “personally RB I find there is nothing quite like chucking a franciscan.”

    1677 Robert Bollard Says: “If he’s a bad abbot or a felonious monk then it’s surely justified.”

    Just spent the day counselling a latte lefty who had recently converted to become a cappuccino monk. ‘Twas a torrid experience, indeed. The guy was a complete mess. At first he found the monastic life offered him a richly rewarding spiritual, olfactory and gustatory experience, however he wasn’t prepared for the full-on proselytising power of the Devil Bean. After his fifth cup of coffee this morning, Brother Kramer felt compelled to break free from the friary and tell somebody about it.

    Was about to down a short black at my favourite shoterie and grapple with the psephological complexities of the upcoming primaries when the hyper-caffeinated missionary button-holed me and commenced to spill his guts. Mesmerised by his motor-mouthed delivery, I have only this moment managed to extricate myself from the ordeal because his fellow friars, deeply concerned at his unexplained absence from “Cappuccino Cloisters” had organised a search party. Like angels of mercy they swooped and lured the hapless novice away with the promise of a fix of primo Andean aribica.

    So yes, jen and RB, know just how you feel!

  6. #4
    Nicely put, KR. More sane and sober Republicans are dreading November. They’ve lost three special elections this year in traditional GOP districts in Illinois, Louisiana and (last week) Mississippi. Not a good sign. Sure, it’s a protest vote against Bush; but winning the seat containing Tupelo (Elvis’s birthplace!) in Mississippi is a real coup for the Dems.

    It’s the independent voters that swing elections, not the gun-toting hillbillies in their pick-up trucks. Unless the religious nutters come out in droves (and this bunch and McCain aren’t exactly soulmates), then the GOP is in big trouble. “The HillBilly crowd down the Appalachias won’t vote for no nigga”, but they would never vote Democrat anyway. The Dems have given up trying to win those redneck states that are still fightin’ the Civil War. In addition to the ‘safe’ blue states, all they need is Florida, Ohio, a few upper MidWest states, maybe the SouthWest (especially New Mexico and Nevada), and the Presidency is theirs. Screw the old Confederacy – who needs ’em.

  7. KR: Re Kristol in the NYT at #4

    Problem 1 doesn’t matter. See Democrat primary turnout. And the much-referenced salon article in the last thread.

    Problem 2: “Thursday, the California Supreme Court did precisely what much of the American public doesn’t want judges doing: it made social policy from the bench.”

    Well, maybe it helps some. McCain makes noises and promises to appoint Supreme Court justices that won’t legalise gay marriage (or at least won’t override state decisions in the matter). That plays with the right, I reckon, and well help him get out the Republican fundie base.

    Problem 3 – he’s Neville Chamberlain in blackface! – don’t reckon it works. Reckon jawing might be back in favour with the US populace, as war-ing isn’t working real well.

    “supporter-of-middle-American-values” is I suppose the new code for reminding the voters that he’s not-white. Still, it’s a problem for the Republicans – the more they try and slyly remind some voters about their weirdness about having a black president, the bigger the risk that playing-the-race-card turns off a significant number of the non-extremists any candidate needs to win. You know, the people who find racism, event hints and dogwhistles, a bit repulsive. Which includes a chunk of the fundie base. An interesting balancing act, perhaps.

  8. I don’t know what you coves are smoking and inhaling, but 30 point losses in November will see McCain in the White House. Great omen.

    Not surprised KR could not wait to mention the winners name. He never misses a chance to use excremental terms in his posts.

    EC : Sure you didn’t add a little mixer to your friend’s brew? Obviously the coffee experience is a dangerous activity in your parts. Tea drinking is far more gentile, I say and leads to less strange behaviour.

    Nice to see Kakuro embracing Obama’s 50 State strategy.

  9. Gruffy, usually I mention excremental terms when you come in here chucking yours around. Of course Eddy then often follows up the rear (so to speak) and does the finger painting on the walls with it. That’s just his idea of spreading the joy.

    Still, it’s your contribution, and we’ve come not to expect much better, and you haven’t disappointed.

  10. OK, I think we now know who’s going to be banging on for Macca until November, eh?

    I’ve always suspected under that puerile gruff exterior was a rightwing bovver boy just aching to lurch right out and start head butting anything that sounded even vaguely intelligent, informed, and civilised.

    If you look carefully, you can always pick ’em. It’s the charm; gives it away every time! LOL

  11. 11
    B.S. Fairman

    On your second link, at the bottom of the page is one coded for delegate count.

    Not much green (Clinton) on that one! LOL

  12. [OK, I think we now know who’s going to be banging on for Macca until November, eh?]

    We need at least one. The blog would be boring otherwise.

  13. Some poor old Marxist made some nasty comments about alleged Vote Master inadequacies earlier today. The figures have been updated below and include the latest New Mexico Rasmussen numbers. Unfortunately for the POM it still shows Obama likely to lose against McCain (consistent with the trend for a few weeks). Time for some furious spin.

  14. Excellent timing, pity the message doesn’t quite square with the Idiot Decider’s. It’s so hard to get good puppet governments these days, they just don’t follow the rules:

    Iraqi President Jalal Talabani has dismissed claims that Iran is sending weapons into his country and called for strong Iran ties.

    “Those who make such claims against Iran only express their personal views which don’t reflect those of the Iraqi government,” he said in interview with the Al-Arabiya TV on Friday.

    “I, as the president of Iraq, do not agree with such views,” he added.

    “Our Iranian brothers are ready for dialogue on any such issues,” Talabani said.

    “As far as Iranian weapons are concerned it should be mentioned that during Saddam Hussein’s rule Iran provided weapons for the Iraqi opposition groups,” he added.

    Talabani also called for enhanced ties between Iraq and Iran and said that “I strongly believe that the relations between Iran and Iraq in different fields could be further strengthened,” IRNA quoted him as saying.


  15. 15 GG

    Here’s the spin, well selective facts really. Both 538 and electionprojection are projecting an Obama win for New Mexico.

  16. No Gruffy, RB put forward a clear, precise argument with evidence

    You are the one that came on ‘nasty’.

    You can’t even tell the truth can you?

  17. KR @ 10&12,

    So let us be clear for all our fellow PBers,

    1. Any two posters that robustly disagree with you are homosexuals?
    2. This is a bad thing?
    3. You are a font of wisdom on “anything that sounded even vaguely intelligent, informed, and civilised”.

    Please make a coherent case for these enlightened thoughts.

  18. I won’t bother describing what a load of self-serving and inaccurate (ie false) tosh this article by blowhard Neocon John Bolton is:

    North Korea has also used the Six-Party Talks to gain time, testing its first nuclear weapon in 2006, all the while cloning its Yongbyon reactor in the Syrian desert.

    …but suffice to say Bolton was thankfully removed and adults took up the dialogue with NKorea.

    As for the ‘reactor in the Syrian desert’, no credible source thinks there is even a shred of evidence for this.

    It’s more “Saddam buys yellowcake from Niger” crappola.

    You can hear the chirping of the Neocons building up into a sad frenzy all over again as they stare annihilation in the face.

    Bring it on, indeed!

  19. The finger painter has arrived.

    Oh, what pearls of decorative wisdom shall he inscribe for us I wonder?

  20. Diogenes,

    There was some heated discussion earlier over Votemaster. KR seems to have worked himself up in to a lather of righteous outrage. He seems much happier that way.

  21. nah Gruffy, just calling you liar, because you are one.

    Anyone wishing to go and see this morning’s posts will conclude exactly the same.

    You’re a bully, thick as a plank, and when you get called on it, you resort to lying about other posters, rather like old Snidely used to do until he got slapped for it.

    Go on, suck on that.

  22. GG – so the fact that they’ve belatedly fixed the problem I pointed to is evidence it didn’t exist. Though it still doesn’t explain their inconsistency in occasionally using the latest poll (as they are now for New Mexico and still do for Wisconsin and Michigan) and other times using a poll average (as they did for New Mexico up until this last change). This latest decision favours Obama. But my point was not that there was some kind of conspiracy to favour Clinton, just that I didn’t agree with the methodology. Just calling each state on the basis of a single poll magnifies the margin of error, and produces “noise” that obscures trends.
    But then that’s just furious Marxist spin, so you can ignore it if you want.

  23. 27
    William Bowe

    I’ll treat people the way they treat me. Call that a ‘lack of self-awareness’ if you like, but that’s my principle, and I apply it very consistently.

    And I don’t suffer nongs terribly well, that may be construed as a failing, I’ll grant you that! LOL

  24. William, some of us count ourselves lucky you don’t care anymore, as it’s very entertaining, if somewhat inexplicable, except in a bulls with horns locked together sense. Some of the other posters are informative, however, so I’d encourage not caring. Better for one’s blood pressure.

  25. Soggy pizza, or just trouble with your base?

    Here’s one blogger’s take on McCain:

    McCain-Fiengold and McAmnesty are far left wing agendas. They have nothing to do with being moderate or conservative.

    John McCain is a Democrat and has considered switching parties. True Republicans do not have a candidate this year. The Democrats will have two.

    …now, for us ‘ignorant loathing lefties’, that is truly funny!

  26. Obama is now moving on to the first phases of the main contest. For example, countering the standard conservative smear tactics. It doesn’t seem there will be any element of surprise in the attacks on Obama, unlike the out-of-the-blue ‘Swift Boat’ crap they threw at Kerry.
    Apart from continuing to wear a flag pin a veteran recently gave him (props are always nice!), Obama is going to start emphasising ‘his life story as a uniquely American one.’. This is good. I was a little worried at his reluctance to engage more directly on some of the smears when up against Hillary, but without the constraints of an intra-party battle he is obviously going to be more aggressive against McCain. Obama’s effective reaction to the Hamas and the ‘appeasement’ stuff was the first sign, and the American roots emphasis is another:

    ‘Obama Shifts to Countering Republican Attacks on His Patriotism’
    `My grandfather — Stanley Dunham — enlisted after Pearl Harbor and went on to march in Patton’s Army,” Obama said in Charleston. “My grandmother, meanwhile, worked on a bomber assembly line while he was gone, and my mother was born at Fort Leavenworth.”

  27. 32
    jaundiced view

    So while Hillary was pretending to be Rosy the Riveter, Obama’s grandmother was in fact one!

    Ironic, huh?

  28. So Hillary wins Kentucky, Obama wins Oregan. Hillary still cant win. Hillary stays in the race. Have I got it wrong??

  29. Are the rumours true that Hilary will gain an Acadamy Award nomination for Best Actress? Or perhaps, well deserved nomination for Best Supporting Actress in regard to good old Bill? What a couple of Troopers! Keeps the old Westerns alive in all of our minds!

  30. 34 Andrew

    That’s about the size of it. Unless the Democrat SDs wheel out the equine ambulance and put her out of her, and our, misery with a mercy killing.

  31. Well you know your chances for an Oscar are much better when you play someone with an infirmity…does being delusional count???

  32. David Letterman recently joked that with her campaign $21 million in debt, Hillary is at “the world’s most expensive fantasy camp.”


  33. Hard to see why the SDs are holding back? Allegiance to Hillary and hoping she will quit before they show their hand. You’ve got to think if they were going to go for her they would have weeks ago when it may have helped her

  34. Speculation Hillary will concede after the votes in Kentucky and Oregon on Tuesday/Wednesday.
    Obama got a crowd of 75,000 to his rally in Portland, Oregon yesterday: a good sign he’ll win that primary this week, and the state will stay in Democrat hands this November.
    You’d assume the Republicans will win Kentucky easily!
    Now everyone, let’s play nice in William’s sandpit!

  35. And further evidence that William is making a wise choice having given up on us (looks like that Stoic/Cynic philosophy has another adherent). It’s bad for you to have to be nice when you want to abuse someone.

    Dieter Zapf of the Johann Wolfgang Goethe University in Frankfurt studied 4,000 volunteers working in a fake call center. Half were allowed to respond in kind to abuse on the other end of the line while the other half had to suck it up, The Telegraph reports.

    He found that those able to answer back had a brief increase in heart rate. Those who could not had stress symptoms that lasted much longer.

    “Every time a person is forced to repress his true feelings there are negative consequences,” Zapf said. “We are all able to rein in our emotions but it becomes difficult to do this over a protracted period.

  36. KR @ 33 – I think Grandma Obama’s riveting past might mean she can still put a few nails in the Repug coffin on behalf of her young grandson in ‘Operation Patriotism’.

  37. Let’s see if the Idiot Decider’s dogwhistling from the floor of the Knesset changes anything, but I expect it won’t:

    But a Gallup poll last month — in the midst of the Wright drama — found Obama beating McCain 61-32 among Jewish voters, a far wider margin than among the population as a whole. While that’s lower than John Kerry’s 76 percent margin among Jews (and 5 points lower than the 66 percent Hillary Clinton got in the same poll), Obama’s campaign isn’t worried about making up the difference by November. “If we’re beating McCain 2-1 after ‘Obama is a Muslim’ scares and a month of Rev. Wright, then we’re doing pretty well,” one aide said.


  38. Well Andrew, it would be better for her party’s chances of winning the election if she would step aside and allow the candidate to get on with the main game. That however would require putting something else above her personal ambition, and so it won’t happen.

  39. 45
    jaundiced view

    It’s going to be interesting to watch how Obama defuses the racial differences with his own personal history. The stereotypes will not stand up to this information.

    Expect some ‘cognitive dissonance’ amongst some who already think ‘he ain’t one of us’.

  40. 34- Hillary will pull the pin on June 2th after Puerto Rico. A farewell tour of sorts.

    What would be nice is her making some strong statement about Puerto Rico needing to be represented in the HoR (or even Statehood) which should help with the population back home in New York. Plus if she makes that an issue, it is likely to do more harm to Republicans than the Democrates (like illegal immigaration).

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