Morgan: 63.5-36.5

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s lead at 63.5-36.5 – down from the record-breaking 65-35 at the previous such poll early in the month, but up from 61-39 at the phone poll conducted a fortnight ago. Other conversation starters:

• Special Minister of State John Faulkner has announced a package of electoral reforms confirming moves to cut the campaign donation disclosure threshold to $1000 (which the Howard government outrageously lifted from $1500 to $10,000 in 2005), along with bans on donations from overseas companies and various other measures. It is also announced that the government will “kick-start a green paper process to reform and modernise our electoral processes”. The first part of this, to be released for discussion in July, will look at “disclosure, funding and expenditure issues”; the second, to be released in October, will examine “a broader range of options aimed at strengthening other areas of our electoral laws”.

• Morris Iemma has taken talk of reforms to campaign donations a step further by suggesting they be banned altogether, perhaps in conjunction with caps on electoral spending. Jack Waterford of the Canberra Times presents the case against.

• A big week for the New South Wales Liberal Party: charges laid against five over the Lindsay pamphlet outrage, rising star Scott Morrison deemed too civilised for membership of his local branch, and suggestions that Peter Phelps might emerge as a contender for the party’s state directorship. Would it be overdramatic to suggest that the forces of respectable conservatism in the state should abandon the whole rancid operation and start again from scratch?

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

318 comments on “Morgan: 63.5-36.5”

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  2. The Queensland State Council of the Liberal Party meets this weekend so it should be a fun time…………in the phone box out the front of Brisbane town hall 🙂

  3. 52 Don’t exaggerate Red Wombat – there’s not that many of them, that’s why they get failed candidates to make up the numbers in front of the camera.

  5. BS Fairman, while the gay marriage issue may be one the Liberals could outflank the ALP on, it seems to me the electorate wouldn’t buy it. Especially given the fact the party changed the marriage act in 2004 to exclude gay couples. I think the public would see the back-flip for what it would be, playing politics. It’s not as if there were any Liberals lining up to speak out for gay marriage in 2004.

  6. Glen

    Just as labor had to get it act together to get back into power so will the Liberals.

    The only way the Liberals had any chance to get back quickly was for the right wing nutter to pack up and leave. Didn’t happen and it is not going to happen.

    I do agree, another loss is required to get things really moving. The Liberal party is going to go into the next election at a total mess.

    This time it won’t be a DLP split that keeps the Labor Party out of power for 20 years, it will be a split in the Liberal party and my bet is 20 years or never ( I suspect the party will not hang together).

    If you think a split is not going to happen, what do you think will happen when after the next election the more rational elements decides to deal with the problem by closing down all the current tiny branches ( Port Hacking as an example) and open up a few super branches that have enough people in them for there to be a small chance that they are ran in a rational manner.

    And if they don’t make an attempt to clean the mess up, what in reality is the electoral chances of the Liberal party.

    Hiding you head in the sand and chanting “we will be back” isn’t going to change things”.

  7. Pardon me, marky marky at 42. Temporary distraction. I was cleaning the toilet.

    ‘Whilst i agree with everything said about Rudds’ trip, i have one criticism’

    With what do you agree?

  8. As someone who has traveled I admire the man. I knows what it is like, doing things while going around the would in 17 days, suffering from jet lag, eating airline food, suffering deep vain thrombosis, and catching god knows what from the air being recirculated through several hundred people . He didn’t have to do it.

    And as for the ignorant behavior of the press, its the sort of thing I would expect from people who hasn’t traveled past their front gate, dream of doing so one day and who consider what Rudd is doing a holiday. It really is quite pathetic.

    I really thought as a group they would been better traveled and better educated.

  9. [And as for the ignorant behavior of the press, its the sort of thing I would expect from people who hasn’t traveled past their front gate, dream of doing so one day and who consider what Rudd is doing a holiday. It really is quite pathetic.]

    THey probably think it’s like an episode of Getaway, and like the late Richard Carelton, probably have their eskies with Smoked Salmon etc 🙂

  10. Don’t think anyone suggested it was a holiday. Where did that come from?

    Suggestion seemed to be that it is some kind of laxity to leave the country for such a ‘long’ period of time.

    For my part, I am sure I will manage. As will the Government, in its capable hands.

  11. I don’t understand how any member of the opposition can keep a straight face while commenting on Rudds trip. At least – as I think should rightly be expected when one is employed by the Australian people as a parlimentary representative – Rudd is going overseas to promote Australia and the interests of its citizens rather than going overseas to promote a corporation and the interests of it’s shareholders!!!

  12. [I don’t understand how any member of the opposition can keep a straight face while commenting on Rudds trip.]

    The media and the Opposition all know there is nothing wrong with this trip. Whatever thing Rudd or Labor take on now will simply an opportunity to build some credit points for the LNP it is just a matter of how extreme they want to be.

    We saw the exaggerated Carer payments thing coordinated deal with the OO, ABC and Liberals run for 5 days. You have to figure that there are some who will unashamedly try to bring down Rudd’s rating using anything. Maybe they figure if they create a barrage of negative comments it will stick.

  13. I can comment on Rudd’s trip…funny when the pendulam is swinging the PM is out of the loop.

    Is he capable of leading this nation or is he the cardboard cut out that is increasing evident as the months go by.

    I look on in amusement.

  15. The recent Liberal campaign in the Gold Coast council elections must have cost them a motzah, mayor plus all 14 divisions, not one successful! And this in the heart of Libland.

    Oh happy days, they will soon be destitute at this rate, especially with the new campaign funding rules, too funny.

  16. Frank, it just proves how hopelessly bereft they are of ideas and relevance, they just like groundhog day :-).

    Frank Calabrese Says:
    March 28th, 2008 at 7:58 pm

    [This nonsense about Kev’s trip is not even worth a response, is that the best the MSM can do. Pathetic!]

    The SBS Documentry on Whitlam where he is interviewed by John Faulkner includes a clip from the original A Cuurent Affair when it was a serious program and the TV version of New Idea, which ran a “story” mocking his extensive travel.

    So it’s really nothing new at all.

  19. Rudd is now The Official “Man Of Steel”, according to Bush. Bush, in return has been made an “Honorary Queenslander”.

    Howard must have choked on his Wheaties.

  20. Charles

    I’m not impressed with the makeup of the 2020 conference…Rudd preached that there would be people there with new ideas and what did we get…the same old faces that will deliver the same old ideas.

    Honestly, can you see anything come out of this besides Rudd’s social networking to ensure his popularity with the doyens of no substance?

    The coalition and the MSM will have a field day.

  22. I’m not impressed with the makeup of the 2020 conference…Rudd preached that there would be people there with new ideas and what did we get…the same old faces that will deliver the same old ideas.

    Honestly, can you see anything come out of this besides Rudd’s social networking to ensure his popularity with the doyens of no substance?

    The coalition and the MSM will have a field day.

    A lot of the usual suspects have been invited to turn up – a lot them being people (eg Philip Adams) who already have ample opportunity to share their views with us.

    The inclusion of the Murdoch and the Packer brats, the latter of whom has no record of any cerebral activity whatsoever, in the “Future Directions for the Australian Economy” panel must be someone’s idea of a joke.

    I am also nonplussed as to why 50 adherents of a particular brand of belief system are being allowed to have their own little gathering a week prior is beyond me. I would have thought that (a) their confessed need for an imaginary friend who has total control of our destiny (albeit with the input of an imaginary enemy) and (b) their apparent support of the proclivity of their co-religionists to take off for the Middle East to avoid prosecution for misdeeds would have disqualified them from any rational discussion of our future.

  23. Ogmios

    I think the MSM has made a fool of itself over the last few weeks. Given the poll results I think it might be reasonable to conclude that it is a widely held view. I’d say their influence and the importance of their opinion is decreasing rapidly.

    I see the 2020 conference as an attempt to find a replacement structure for the parties, which have so spectacularly failed on all sides of politics. I think you have to give Rudd marks for trying. It is uncharted water. It’s interesting to see that for many their only contribution is rock throwing from the sideline.

  24. Albert Ross Says:
    March 29th, 2008 at 10:46 am

    (a) their confessed need for an imaginary friend who has total control of our destiny (albeit with the input of an imaginary enemy)

    I’d prefer to see Harry Potter, I find his version of alternate reality much more entertaining, but Rudd is running the show and I think he is into the imaginary friend who has total control of our destiny thing. Each to their own really.

    I think your only in trouble when you can’t put reality and the imaginary stuff in different bins.

  25. 55 – I don’t think a move by the Liberals to weaken their previous anti-gay stand would be seen as playing politics (at least not more than other move they have done in the last 3 months). I think it would be more likely to be seen as move to go with the mood of the public and reserving a position taken in 2004 that was in itself merely playing politics (get the Hillsongers onside, trying to wedge Labor etc.).

    But as I said the Liberal backbench potplants would spit chips and there is no way it would happen. But my fundamental idea of needing to outflank the government is the ONLY way the Liberals are going to get back in the game. Just as Labor attempted to appear more Conservative in some areas the Liberals need to appear more progressive than the ALP on some issues. Always confuse the enemy.

    Public Education is perhaps another area they could attempt to wedge the government on. Instead of complaining about the “Left wing teachers unions” and suggesting performance pay, they could pull a rabbit out of the hat and support a system based on the social economic background of the student body.

  26. Bushfire Bill @ 69 –

    Howard must have choked on his Wheaties.

    I suspect Howard will have had more than one fit of apoplexy on learning that the Rudds are staying at Blair House. It took him years of arse kissing before he and Janette were accorded the same privilege, once again proving that sycophants don’t earn respect!

  27. [The Americans will be pisssed off at the ban on foreign donations]

    Probably not. Resistance is futile.

    First you globalize the economy, then you globalize culture, ultimately you globalize politics.

    If you didn’t like the idea, then why did you foist that total shit Murdoch on us in the first place?

  28. they could pull a rabbit out of the hat and support a system based on the social economic background of the student body.

    That was what that weasel David Kemp did wasn’t it? A fine mess that got us into. Mind you something transparent payable only to public schools (so as to avoid the institutionalised rorting by the schools for the promotion of imaginary friends [see tody’s SMH]) would be a good idea.

  30. The significant point in Shaun Carney’s opinion piece is not the ‘rampant hyprocracy (sic)…in the MSM’, it is that “the media’s political orthodoxy doesn’t always accord with public opinion”.

  31. 78 – I think part of Kemp’s policy problems related to how they put the lines in the socio-economic indices as where was disadvantaged and the belief that parent’s contributions should be rewarded, which doesn’t assist the poorer areas at all.
    But the story about rorting of the current scheme could give Nelson an excuse to admit that past mistakes have occurred and suggest something different and attempt to wedge the ALP.

  32. 28. I agree with Eratosthanes that there are two axes to Australian politics as outlined, but given the binary nature of Australian politics, one of the major parties will always be a coalition of interests in reaction to the coalition that forms the other.

    In Britain’s party system, the Conservatives have historically been the party that the other parties define themselves against, i.e. the SNP defines itself as the party of romantic Celtic nationalism against Tory unionism, Liberals (and now LibDems) define themselves as compassionate but anti-statist against heartless acolytes of Adam Smith, and Labour through its class base against Eton toffs.

    In Australia, it is against Labor that the other parties define themselves. Labor’s core, rock-solid vote are a combination of non-Anglo blue collar workers (blue collar domitory seats in Sydney and Melbourne), and white collar public sector progressives. This coalition has been a constant of the ALP’s history. Against it, the conservatives form their curious but similarly enduring combination of Turnbull-style free marketeers and often-rural Anglo-traditionalists (regardless of socio-economic class).

    Australian conservatism needs both to prosper – and it is this fact that seems to annoy so many outside the Liberal and National parties, and how they work.

    The Coalition’s Work Choices own-goal spectacularly destroyed this coalition, by forcing outer metro Anglo voters – both blue and white collar, and almost entirely in the private sector – back to Labor.

    If the Coalition wants to rebuild, it needs to understand how to reconnect with these voters. They are not socially progressive, and they are by and large not public sector workers. Right now, the polls show they also find Rudd a comfortable fit, and in the absence of a change to the political landscape, I think they will continue to do so.

  34. I think that the Federal Court will order a bye-election, the last thing they want to do is set a precedent of deciding which votes are valid or not.

    Back to the ballot box is the only way. Will Fran contest the election again? Will there be other bye-elections on the same date?

  35. I might have a bit of fun and get a stamp ‘Liberal Party Gazette’ made up, take my daily trip to the Newsagent and give some of The OO a prominent and suitable imprint in blue ink. But then again that might just be childish.

  36. 84- There will be no more than one by-election at a time as Nelson wants to do himself slowly. 🙂

    Also it’s by-election as the by- is like the by in byway, meaning secondary or minor.

  38. Packer will have some brilliant input into future directions, how about turning Australia into one gigantic casino for starters, although come to think of it we probably already have!

  42. 90 – Sorry, I didn’t see the pun before.

    87 – Thanks Possum. I fully expect it to be stolen by someone with more coverage then me.

  45. Amazing isn’t it, that such numbers, O.K., it’s just Morgan, should result in such a blah result from bloggers here? Mind however, the Kevinator just keeps powering on. And Therese shimmies, when excited! Has anyone else apart from Tracey Hutchison noticed?
    Great joke, B.S. Fairman. Also Liked Rudd’s joke about Queensland being bigger than Texas in response to the glove puppet from Texas claiming Rudd as the new ‘man of steel’. What a cretin.

  46. Yes, Harry, I noted Therese shimmying and compared her favourably with Laura the glove puppet’s wife. I note too that Uhlmann seems not so comfortable reporting on the Kevinator’s progress in foreign parts, perhaps because he can’t rely on his usual snide expression. All good.

  47. Poison Dwarf’s at it again
    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,23451733-2761,00.html

    And hey presto right on que here’s the hard done by pensioners’ story to go with it ,( a pair of signed up members of the local Lib branch no doubt)
    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,23450990-2761,00.html

    “he warned that scores of seniors would make their feelings known at ballot boxes at the next federal election if the Rudd Labour government failed to act. ”
    As if this bloke ever voted Labour in his life! Give me a break, and how come he never wrote to Howard with the same ultimation?

  48. [Mr Sims said it was grossly unfair that pensioners only received a 2.5 per cent payment increase to cover inflation when the workforce was given in excess of four pent. ]

    And by how much did Howard raise the Pension when HE was in power ?

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