Pennsylvania minus four weeks

As Barack Obama weathers the Reverend Jeremiah Wright controversy, Hillary Clinton misspeaks. Compare and contrast …

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,114 comments on “Pennsylvania minus four weeks”

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  1. hey Diogenes, it’s probably a silly observation, but I thought that little mo that Mugabe appears to sport protects you from being voted out. It did for the last guy! LOL

  2. Good set of links, Pancho.

    Yesterday, the Nasdaq, S&P and The Dow kicked as The Chosen Ones glimpsed light at the end of the financial tunnel.

    Wed April 2: Brother, can you spare me a Euro?;_ylt=AuwpZGxq5yYUKAd.jzGZurRN_b4F

    Tues April 1: Life for some is a disinterested banquet…..;_ylt=AggwB33GdxV48CjDKC9OOitT_b4F

    Wed April 2: While others are starving to death.;_ylt=Auohm.dc8.yzs1u2aVxT1cFW_b4F

    Please enjoy your evening meals.

  3. #1050 – Amigo, my dancing is expensive. Obama has taught me well, the Audacity of Hope, for this i say TQ to Mr. Obama. Me and Obama actually have a lot in common.

  4. Finns –
    what do you expect her to say?
    She will state the rules as well as making it clear, as she has , that she thinks the Sd’s should take into account what the people are saying.
    Im not sure what else you could imagine would be their stated position. Thems the rules. However, then there’s the political fallout, and I think if you read back over the links that have been posted here the current view in the US is pretty clear. The SD’s could do it, and vote against the popular and pledged votes, but heaven help the Dems if they do.

  5. The Finnigans @ 1047 –

    Yep, “Roll up, roll up and cast your vote, proles. Just make sure you vote for the ‘right’ candidate.”

    And they call it democracy! LOL

    I wonder if the rumour I’m starting that Mugabe is giving up power in return for becoming the next U.S. and Democrat Party election czar is true?

  6. Finns
    “#1045 – jen, am i still lying? i seem to remember you Obamaphiles are the ones that have always told us that the SDs CANNOT override the Candidate who has more PDs and popular votes. The SDs cannot override the will of the people, blah blah blah blah.

    It appears that either you guys are the ones that have been lying all along or dont know the rules”

    I will be generous and say that you are misguded. Find ONE example of anyone here saying that the SD’s could not legally override the popular vote. I think we all know the rules by now.

  7. I’ve just returned to the site only to find the Obamabots proved my point.
    I will comment on those bloggers who by their replys indicated some consideration of my #1003 blog :

    Thank you on many grounds not the least intellectually.

    Diogenes #1004:
    I’ve never thought you an Obamabot irrespective of your disagreement with me on previous issues Your response whilst I not fully agree with , shows why.
    I’ve often wondered as an aside , given your dislike of what is Hillary , who you would support betweeen EACH OF Edwards , Kerry or Gore vs. Obama ?

    asanque #1011:
    I acknowledge some sound points you express however overall we do not agree.
    However when you suggested “No one is saying Obama is perfect nor flawless” , can you give some detailed analysis of his imperfections & flaws ?

    Yo ho ho:
    Thank you for a number of thoughtful comments & questions in response which I’d like to think about & reply to shortly in detail

    Kirribilli , whose only intellectual “critique” was to correct ‘grammar’. Geez.
    Perhaps many of the millions of Aussie Labor battlers who have a grammar ‘disability’ , may regard correcting grammar as your only defence in a debate , indicates small mindedness or intellectual jealousy although their response may be more colourful. But heck , whatever makes you happy.

  8. EC #1060 “for the ladies”

    How could you bring up this ‘ladies’ subject again, not only did you convince me against my better judgement Ferny was a lady , no worse in my remorse I sent
    ‘her’ blogosphere flowers with a ‘gentlemans’ note (the words of which I do not remember nor whether there were any xxx at the end) but I can only fear the worst

  9. #1057 – jen – [legally] – who is talking about legally? We are talking about a lady called Miss. Spoken. Remember her? She was seen bashing about at Hillary.

  10. #1063 – tq.

    #1055 jen – [what do you expect her to say?] – Nancy with the smiling face was the No: 1 cheer squad in saying the SDs should not override the will of the people, the one with most PDs. You seem to have a very short memory. Old age maybe?

  11. Finns –
    like r/Ron , I think Miss Spoken IS Hillary, unless I am very mistaken.
    As`I have not been re: the role of the SD’s.

  12. Jewellery, schmoolery. Thieves these days storm The Castle gates to vandalise the copper wiring.
    Pretty soon Blackwater mercs will be paid in Euros, as the Roman mercs were paid in drachmas just prior to Rome’s fall.

    “And when people’s homes are being foreclosed upon, or when their values drop through the floor, the “copper and other metals used in plumbing, heating systems and telephone lines are now more valuable” than the homes themselves, Reuters notes.”

    Fair dinkum, Ron, it was an honest mistake. I promise to be more sensitive in my treatment of gender and sexuality issues going forward. Dead set, mate, these days a bloke can get so confused. Btw, do you like gladiator movies?

  13. I should now call her Nancy with the egg on her face. It is now very clear that with the definitive statements from Dean and Pelosi, plus the realisation that the Dems will be committing a hara-kiri by ignoring the voters of MI and FL. The Race is on.

    “House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who flatly predicts there will be no “dream team” of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton on the ballot in November, also says this contest will have to “run its course” — and that Democratic superdelegates have every right to follow their “conscience.’

    “These superdelegates have the right to vote their conscience and who they think would be the better president, or who can win, but they also then should get involved in the campaigns and make their power known there,” Pelosi said today on ABC News’ Good Morning America.

    Pelosi recently drew protests from the Clinton camp when she said she shared Obama’s view that the superdelegates — nearly 800 elected officials and party leaders — should be guided by the vote for pledged delegates”.

  14. Ron @ 1059
    Obama vs Gore, Edwards or Kerry? Interesting question. There is always the purely ideological and the purely pragmatic to consider and it’s hard to divorce them.
    Kerry would be a definite “no”. He would lose to Macca for sure pragmatically, and while he is a decent guy, he lacks leadership skills. So I’d go for Obama over him.
    I would have gone for Gore over Obama. He would have caned McCain and he’s a man of principles.
    Edwards would probably lose to Macca as he doesn’t seem to be able to envigorate the electorate. While he reminds me of a “white” Obama, but a little more experienced, I’m disappointed he hasn’t backed Obama yet and ended the misery for his party (although I read somewhere that he isn’t even a superdelegate).

    So I would have gone for Gore over Obama, been ambivalent about Edwards or Obama, and wanted Obama over Kerry.

  15. LOL Clinton knows the Dems will bow to the pressure and seat the MI and FL delegates that’s why she aint quiting and if the Dem Supers do do a deal and don’t give the Dems of MI and FL a say boy you’ve given Macca a golden opportunity to win MI and FL!

  16. fair enough mate. My go is the Gene Hackman’s & his kind of roles plus comedy,
    although the Net now is great for comedy as well , much to Pollies dislike

  17. Let’s contrast ‘good days’. Obama – continual endorsements of party heavyweights, explicitly or implicitly. Clinton – vague statements allowing her to remain in the race by other party heavyweights who, according to party sources, supporting Obama. Each party is going to have their ‘good days’. I know which ones are more valuable however.

    The spinmeister will no doubt grasp Pelosi’s words, as is her prerogative, and try to squeeze something out of them. Unfortunately though, as none of her supporters here seem to have realised, these words cut down yet another narrative that camp Clinton has been attempting to develop: ‘they’re trying to force me out!’ One that she has been using for fundraising too.

  18. Finns- Nancy Pelosi has demonstrated, yet again, that the Democrat Party is full of inept, incompetent, pathetic wusses. They really could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory one more time before they fade into electoral oblivion.

  19. Diogenes – listen to the top of the party almost as a chorus. They have obviously decided that Clinton has had her slap and they are not going to allow her to play martyr. They have obviously decided Obama can finish her on his own and tactically they’d be better pulling back and not offering her this narrative.

  20. Diogenes #1069

    Can not add much to what you said , I pretty much agree with it all.

    Although Kerry I find such a likeable & confusing bloke its hard to criticise him but unfortunately his ‘form’ of losing to Bush is fatal.

    Have often wondered Edwards fate had he had Obama’s oratory skill , but why the Democrats did not ‘draft’ Gore a few years ago I do not understand as yes as you said , the POTUS was guaranteed against McCain

  21. Ron – there were active campaigns to draft Gore since 2004, and they were stepped up when he refound fame and a new relaxed persona. There were websites watching his weight to see if he was slimming down for a run. Then when his book was due for release mid last year the crescendo hit a new pitch.

    He seemed generally uninterested, and more focussed on his environmental work. And he intimated more than once that if it looked like it was going to sh1t he’d step in. But when Clinton, Edwards and Obama stepped up he faded out of the picture again.

    Maybe he wants to be Secretary for the environment or find some sort of other posting?

  22. Finns – indeed perhaps my age is an issue, although I would suggest not as much as McCain’s. or Hillary’s for that matter.
    Being in the same ballpark as Obama I’m Ok with it

  23. Evening fellow Bludgers, intelligent commentariat and others.

    At the risk of sounding like that bloke on ‘The Vicar of Dibley’ – no no no no no no no no no no no no – Al Gore has no interest in returning to the White House. He’s done his political thing and now he is happy being a guru/demigod/statesman/international wise man.

    And let’s face it, even if he DID want to run – which I say again he most certainly does not – there are a couple of problems: 1. He would probably lose – again; and 2. Well…he forgot to enter the nomination race didn’t he. And while I know that theoretically makes no difference – it practically makes all the difference in the world. Endorsing someone who didn’t even enter the race would disenfranchise an awful lot of supporters and guarantee a McCain win.

    It’s fanciful nonsense.

  24. Grover –
    have you dropped the ‘Ferny’ because it’s a little feminine?? Or am i going to be yet again confused with similar monickers that are’t quite who I thought they were. (Ron- you know who I mean.)

  25. #1078 – jen – your Obi cant even beat a 10 years old. how do you expect him to beat a wily 61 years old.

    Wednesday, April 2nd 2008, 4:00 AM
    Barack Obama scored an embarrassing 37 out of 300 at a Pennsylvania bowling alley last weekend. He may want to take a few pointers from Gabriella Lamas. She racked up a 47 – and she’s only 10 years old.
    With Gabriella showing how easy a victory over Obama would be, at the alleys at least, rival Hillary Clinton jokingly challenged him to a Democratic version of “Kingpin.”

    “I am challenging Sen. Obama to a bowl off, a bowling night right here in Pennsylvania, winner take all,” Clinton said in an apparent April Fools’ offer while stumping in Philadelphia.

    Clinton even offered to “spot him two frames,” a joke that let her play the jock card against the avid hoops player. “It’s time for his campaign to get out of the gutter, and for all the pins to be counted,” she quipped.

  26. Well Finns- you win.
    You have finally hit on the defining argument.
    If Obama can’t bowl then I’m voting for Hillary. Or McCain cause he says he will bomb …whoever and that impresses me no end.
    Big sooky la-la girl’s blouse Obambi has lost me .

  27. BTW Bludgers of all colours –
    I overheard some news thingy before where they were talking about the stages of grief in relation to the elections, and I’m wondering are there journo’s using our posts to save themselves some work?

  28. ‘Thank you on many grounds not the least intellectually’. Ron @ 1059

    ‘Sanctimonious blogers’ Ron pick a #

    ‘So pal, piss off back to your crappy country of origin’ Ron pick a #

    What gems tonight Ron?

    FG – F = half GG are you sure about this? Suggest Brizzybalz, Hairy Grover etc…

  29. jen,

    We are young and we are free.

    Therefore, some with a good supply of “Sheridan” sheets might take advantage.

  30. 1079

    Did you say ‘fanciful nonsense’? My dear Grover, in this dark little corner of Poll Bludgerdom we feast on such stuff. Why, we’ve got terrabytes devoted to a 15 second soundbite of a slightly heated bit of black preacher agro, reams on the fine character of Hillary Clinton, medieval disputations about how many Super Delegates can fit on the head of a pin (or if they have wings, and can fly from one candidate to the other), rigorous analysis of the word ‘experience’, debates on Barack’s ‘blackness’, and mathematical theorems that postulate that the chic can’t win.

    And you want to deride a teensy bit of ‘fanciful nonsense’?

    Get outa here! Wash your mouth out, we eat that stuff for breakfast!

  31. Jen @ 1080

    Yes Jen, the ‘Ferny’ (derived from my suburb in Brisbane) obviously caused some gender confusion so I’ve adopted the much more obviously masculine, albeit slightly Sesame Streetish, Grover. But rest assured Jen I’m still Ferny deep down inside.

  32. codger,

    Ron is a “Sparlking” Bludger. A gem full of fire and spirit with the ability to leave us all wanting more stimulus.

  33. Grover: Hello, sir, and welcome to Grover’s Taxi.
    Fat Blue: Oh no, it’s you!
    Grover: Yes it is I, your ferny blue taxi driver. What can I do for you, sir?
    Fat Blue: I want to go to the library.
    Grover: Oh a very wise choice. The library is a wonderful place with books to read and you can listen to records like “The Air is Alive with the Sound of Music.”
    Fat Blue: I know that. Let’s go.
    Grover: You know you can take home books from the library too, if you bring them back of course.
    Fat Blue: I know. That’s why I’m going there.
    Grover: Of course you could also go to the zoo.
    Fat Blue: I don’t want to go to the zoo!
    Grover: How about the museum? You can look at pictures of the mummies… And the daddies.
    Fat Blue: I don’t want to look at pictures of the mummies and the daddies!

    (From Grover, there is no escape)

  34. On the gender issue, I was reminded of a wonderful response I saw to Bolt’s joke on his blog about leaving for politics.

    “I’m sorry to hear this. I wish you every success, though I think you will be hampered by your speaking voice, to me it’s sounds a bit weak and effeminate and could explain your lack of any major gig in radio or TV.”

    OUCH! 😀

    The Bolters seem to have departed like Eliot’s nymphs. I think the “An argument like that might cut the mustard over on Andew’s blog, but you’ll need to prove your point here unfortunately” comments scared them off. Just as well they weren’t exposed to the dazzling analysis and witty repartee on the US site. How inferior they would feel! 😉

  35. Ferny- how can I call you FG, if now you are just G?
    The possibilities of confusion with GG are too much to bear.
    Which has always been a problem for me anyway due to the references to the Government Gazette.
    And then there’s Kirri – who is often referred to as KR who can therefore be easily mistaken as Our Kev.
    And you all know my feelings on the lower case/upper case confusion with r/Ron.
    It’s all too much. I’m going to bed.

  36. Jen- I’ve had awful problems with KR. The Powers book on genocide keeps referring to the Khmer Rouge as KR. It’s awfully offputting!

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