Lateline reports tomorrow’s Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead at 59-41, down from 63-37 a fortnight ago. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 73-7 to 70-10 (hat tip to Blair S. Fairman).
UPDATE: Graphic here.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
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onimod
Turnbull will be claiming it as a “left” wing plot – to wait ’till after the election to ratify his hard work. 🙂
999 My view is simplistic, but I’d argue education is the strongest driver on the planet and selfish ignorance is the biggest brake. It’s also pretty amazing how many of our ‘cultural’ choices have the data to back them up, nor even is there the slightest interest in seeking the data.
A pretty simple one is ‘living standards’ – we use it as a gauge and give ourselves a big pat on the back if we’re near the top of the list, but if I went out into the street and asked people which countries ranked higher than us and why, economically and socially, they thought that was the case I’d get a lot of blank faces.
What are we aspring to?
I think the actual pattern data says we’re aspiring to organise our lives around spending as much time as we can in that cubicle at work? So long as the prevailing economic winds allow us to do that then we don really make much of a fuss.
Pretty laughable really.
My understanding is the deal was pretty much done between Brumby and Turnbull prior to the election. However, Howard reneged because he wanted a National Liberal Government versus un co-operative Labor States strategy as a part of his election campaign
Remember the “Wall to wall Labor” mantra.
Just another thing for the Libs to thank John Howard for.
For eleven years they did nothing on climate change, nothing in regards to the environment and nothing in regards to water and Greg Hunt has the hide to suggest that Labor is not moving fast enough, is he fair dinkum.
Whilst he may have a point he does not have the credentials to complain, put simply he is a dill.
I listened to Mr Hunt on Sky News – can anyone decipher what he said? 😛
He continues to get on Television with one line statements without any thourough policy attached, i wish the media had some intelligence to ask questions which challenged our political leaders. I continually wonder where many got their journalism degrees?
n the final chapter of his latest book, Scorcher: The Dirty Politics of Climate Change, Clive Hamilton outlines a hypothesis that describes how “the Howard Government has been actively working to destroy the Kyoto Protocol”.
He cites as evidence Australia’s paradoxical desperation to continue to participate in negotiations, despite the fact we’ve rejected the treaty outright. The only reason for this, he thinks, is so we can continue to act as spoilers. Hamilton believes that this is being done to protect our coal-export industry. Because 80 per cent of our steaming coal goes to countries that have emissions reductions obligations under Kyoto, the tougher Kyoto becomes, the less valuable our coal exports to these countries are.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/book-reviews/scorcher-the-dirty-politics-of-climate-change/2007/05/25/1179601645988.html
Greg Hunt sounds like a DJ at the world mixing championships.
Scratch scratch scratch, riff riff (repeat)
next record please…..
I have no problem with him wanting a good outcome, but his delivery and strategy is about as classy as Britney Spears getting out of a car.
I found it interesting the way the announcement was delivered by Rudd, Rann and Brumby. Did Penny figure anywhere late today, or is she racked out after getting the job done last night and this morning?
The problem with the Coal Industry is that it is entrenched within our regional societies and it has significant resources to ensure that the no government will be willing to take them on when it comes to climate change. Solutions which Labor is putting forward regarding Clean Coal and Geosequestrian are simply fairy floss.
Geosequestrian takes to time to implement and is extremelty costly and Clean Coal well i am not sure if you can have such a thing.
Kina- the Libs did not recognise climate change, and Labor well it kind of does, well kind of, but its solutions mean it does not. So in reality we will doing very little.
1007 Kina
This might set the cat amongst the pigeons, but would the best thing we can do for the planet be to stop selling our coal?
Or even plan B: sell less coal, jack up the price and get the same income for less?
Simplistic, I know, but we do seem pretty desperate to divest ourselves of what is an appreciating and finite asset.
Hunt is a bit like Ballieu ,the Leader of Liberals in Victoria, he also talks in short bursts and his delivery is poor.
And Rudd well because his cabinet lacks talent he has taken control of the questions and the delivery of speeches, i think their is a view that someone will make a mistake.
Onimod at 1010
We dont have much market power with coal (there’s plenty of it floating about) so although such a move (as politically courageous as it would be) might have a short term impact on price (and hence demand), it would soon wash completely out of the system as other suppliers ramp up production to fill the gap.
Uranium and Thorium we might be able to get away with, but not with coal.
Judge Growler of Greeensborough
That sounds entirely plausible – the Coalition strategists ran a deliberate campaign of using the states as the punching bag as we saw with the Crosby Textor Oztrack stuff. It wouldnt surprise me at all if Howard not only did the dirty on Victoria, but reneged on the deal for ongoing liability protection for NSW as part the Coalitions broader political strategy of using the wall-to-wall ALP States mantra as a political weapon. Tying down the back of the envelope 10 bill Murray plan would have made that line of attack somewhat redundant – especially in the NSW and Vic regional seats, as well as the South Oz electorates.
1012 Possum
Thankyou – that answers that.
It would br nice if we could sell a bit more IP and processed stuff, but I see we’re stuck with the dinosaur-swamp enhanced dirt for the time being.
1002 living standards and Possum
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index
Human development index ( includes education and life expectancy).
Iceland
Norway
Australia
.
.
The US is number 12. If you have traveled enough to see the countries first hand the results are interesting. Free markets are not the whole answer.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
Poor old us, EU is now the biggest economy.
Possum,
Could you please post a link to your posting on the leaked CT Oztrack Report.
I looked fairly thoroughly but can’t find it in my records. I would very much appreciate having the link in my bookmarks for future and occasional reference and comparison purposes.
Cheers, Scorpio.
Very pleasing to see the Rudd, Labor Government moving quickly to re-engage with the world community and exert some influence in the international sphere.
This “multilateral engagement” rather than Howard’s “bilateral” engagement with the incompetent Bush Administration is a breath of fresh air and will improve our standing in the International community, hopefully to, or better than what the Hawke/Keating Governments achieved.
[On the eve of his first major overseas tour, Mr Rudd has put forward a foreign policy agenda designed to help Australia deal more effectively with the uncertain global financial outlook, as well as problems such as climate change and terrorism.
The key priority of his 18-day tour of the US, Europe and China will be to engage political and financial leaders about the global credit crunch, looking at ways to cushion the impact on the domestic economy while prosecuting Australia’s case as a stable and well-regulated financial market.
In a speech to the East Asia Forum in Sydney tonight, Mr Rudd said in an increasingly interconnected world, policy makers were constantly faced with new global challenges with significant domestic impacts.
“If Australia fails to engage with the global economic, security and environmental challenges, we will simultaneously fail to deal with their impact on our own country,” he said.
“That means in order to advance Australia’s interests at home, we must increasingly be engaged with other nations in responding to the challenges to those interests abroad.]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23436064-12377,00.html
The HDI is an interesting metric – although one plagued by problems because a lot of the index is essentially made up of various little bits of dodginess that infect each of the components, particularly the vagaries attached to the way they are reported in each country.
In an ideal world there would be some organisation with a 5 billion USD annual budget that could go and independently measure these things in a standardised way, free from the whimsy of national reporting regimes to give us a truly accurate measurement of human development.
But alas – we live in the real world!
Those inconsistent national metrics explain an awful lot of the WTF Factor! when you see countries on that list being in places where you really know that they simply ought not to be.
And we should all feel for Iceland – their economy at the moment is up the creek in a barbed wire canoe. 6-7% inflation running of 15% interest rates, their currency has slumped around 30% over the last little bit (the kroner?) and their three largest banks that make up about 60-70% of the nations stock market growth in recent years have all become questionably solvent.
Ouch. They will probably need to be rescued by the EU in a serious multi-billion euro package.
I much prefer the index which looks at the amount of poverty within countries and this graph sums up that countries which have socialist policies and ideals- hence investment in public education and health and actually have very good social welfare policies rank the highest, Australia which has got down track of economic rationaism ranks and greed ranks 13. Thus look at the amount of people as a percentage which have median income levels below 50 percent, interesting that the greedy west- Australia, Britain and USA ranks poorly.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Poverty_Index
Scorpio – the big one was here:
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/09/07/capitulation/
But there was also bits here:
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/crosby-textor-and-the-census-data/
and here:
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/11/23/heading-in-the-right-direction/
Or alternatively, you could just download the docs for yourself:
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/files/2008/03/crosbytextorreportcompletepart1of2.pdf
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/files/2008/03/crosbytextorreportcompletepart2of2.pdf
First ones 7mb, 2nd ones 5mb.
enjoy..
Heya Marky
I know exactly the amount of people that have median incomes below 50%!
50%!
just kidding – it’s population raw numbers vs median household income – bit of a silly metric that they’re under a fair whack of pressure to change (because it actually underestimates relative poverty in terms of urban density). But the way you said it was kind of funny.
Thanks, Possum.
I had most of those but couldn’t find the original one with your excellent analysis which got such wide coverage throughout the blogosphere and even some mention in the MSM.
Not to mention ambo chasers. This is actually the first time the docs have been released since the original shitfight.
1015 charles and following
WTF indeed. Off hand I’d say that equation delivers a shite outcome, but hey, I’ve already made a comment on the value of data.
Before I read marky’s link I was going to go searching for a Danish or German critique of HDI, but now I won’t bother. I suspect the Swiss have a very dry chuckle about HDI.
Any spin to suit your economic opinions Possum; i was once a rationalist also but then i actually visited a few countries in europe and noticed just what kind of societies the governments were creating and the actual fairness in their policies, and how well the private and public sectors were actually doing if their governments actually invested in the private and public sectors and did not allow this winners take all approach. These people actually care look at their populations and invest in them.
Another interesting poll on wikipedia is the current account and the Western countries including Australia a country with vast resources is heavily indebted and close to the bottom. China is way out in front.
Condemned, am I, by Kina, for being among those of little faith.
I will bear this.
Pleased, am I, that Kev has managed a resolution about the water.
I am especially interested in the water, being at the end of the line.
South Australia.
I still hold my breath, however. Much depends on rain.
Crikey be careful though, after eleven years of inaction Greg Hunt, believes they are to slow. What next.
Seriously Marky, the HDI is a bit out of whack simply because of the strange little bits that creep in to measurements of some of the countries. The US for instance should probably be further down the list, while the Swiss and Ireland should be further up the list to name but a few.
The Current Account has its place (and ours is probably higher than is healthy) – but the Asian economies have started hoarding securities to not only hold up US consumption (which they need as an export destination – remembering that most Asian central bank held securities are US sourced and denominated securities) but also as a bulwark against any future financial crisis similar to 1997 where they can start dolloping out capital to substitute for any fickle capital flights that may happen.
You’ve got to realise though that such hoarding comes at a cost. The Asian economies have well over a trillion worth of securities – that’s a trillion worth of wealth that has been diverted from domestic development and poverty alleviation to be stuck, instead, in liquid accounts just in case they need to use it in the future for some unknown financial defensive strategy.
Personally a Liberal Environment Minister seems a contradiction-in-terms. An oxymoron. If they were to retitle the portfolio Profit at Any Cost … then they would be more ‘credible’, as far as name goes, if nothing else.
1029 RX
Indeed, and Greg Hunt is hardly the man to open the account at the Credibility Bank. He looks like he might get the job of teller at a pinch.
Don’t disagree that measurements can be incorrect and out of whack. My argument is based on ideolgical reasons and to me this continued perception we hear that socialist countries cannot run economies and cannot govern is just sheer nonsense.
Your arguments regarding the current account balance- hence our balance of payments, i am not totally sure what your argument is that many asian economies need foreign reserves to buy more domestic goods than yes i agree, but the fact about our balance of payments is a concern, and this has probably got worse due to dollar and our lack of investment in R&D and export competing industries.
I’m not trying to gang up marky, but are you labelling counties like Germany, Denmark and Norway socialist? They are some of the countries (and even France in some respects) that your post at 1025 made me think of. The problem is that I don’t think the government of any of those countries is suitable here, as much as I admire their lifestyles, because a government must be basically responsive to their population. For example: the gradual remove of cars from Copenhagen isn’t some crusade the government has gone on – that’s what the population is demanding because they believe that reduced car use results in a better quality of like, both for the self and the whole, despite the inconveniences that can arise as a result.
I guess that’s why I keep harping on about culture and education. How many decades before there is a real belief by a population of a capital city in Australia in the benefits of minimal car ownership?
Solutions are difficult though, really difficult. I’m not going to bow down and worship Rudd regardless, but it does feel like we’ve stopped jogging on the spot for 11 years and at least the head is up and looking at what the Nation might become again. Building the momentum for real change will take plenty of time though. I believe the trick will be keeping as many people on the bus as possible though for the eventual jump to lighspeed.
Marky, Those big government, big welfare viking countries do good things for their citizens – better than most.It comes at a cost – there’s always trade-offs, and its even possible because they have a few localised effects that most others dont – the worlds largest connected economy sitting on their borders for one.
You seem to think that I’m some ideological nutbag that hates government of all types; period. Which is your mistake – I have no particular ideology, I just like what works in the circumstances available. And in our circumstances, without an EU on our immediate doorstep – we need to do things a little differently.
On our current account – we’ve had a current account deficit nearly every year since Federation regardless of which way you choose to measure it (and there’s a couple of ways). Why is a combination of history, what we produce and our own behaviour but we’ve always had one and its not really a problem, although it might be starting to become one because of its size.
On the Asian economies – the current account is a function of two things. What you earn from exports and your financial incomings + what pay for your imports and your financial outgoings.
What places like China have done is export goods, but then have purchased US securities instead of putting the money back into their economy (and preventing the wider economy from importing goods it ordinarily would if given the chance with that extra cash sloshing around the system). Likewise, by holding that extra cash back they’ve prevented all sorts of local development that may have borrowed from overseas to fund their ventures.
As a result of ostensibly shifting that export revenue into the purchase of US securities, they’ve effectively blown out their current account surplus. They buy US securities, funding broad debt driven US consumption (which buys their goods) and in return they keep those securities and dont put them back into their economy – meaning the country doesnt actually get most of the benefit of much of the revenue involved.
It works via a process a little more complicated than that – but essentially thats the end result. Weirdly it even has a name – Bretton Woods 2!
Australia’s Current Account Deficit is fifth highest in the world. Not per capita, but in dollar terms…
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2187rank.html
Possums. I dont worry as an ex drinker but if we were to have social parity with Scandinavia then be prepared to pay for it. Tax rates over 50% for starters then something in the order of $10 for a tall bottle of beer and so on. The black market for vodka over there is huge! My friends mum makes a nice sideline on that8)
8)
Mmmmh, Aussieguru01. You may just have presented Kev with certain solutions.
Aussieguru01 when I in Sweden ( for 6 months a long time ago now) you had to buy your grog at the local government store, on a Friday and it was expensive. The problem being solved was similar to the one Kev is worried about now. Australians don’t use Vodka to binge drink, the Swedes do.
1033
Possum Comitatus
The holding of US dollars by China is restricting imports and forcing the development of China’s local industry. For a historic reference point take a look at the failure of Spain when England rose to power.
Whats happening will do more damage to the US than to China, mind you England was left with gold, China may be left with worthless US paper, but I suspect they have a reasonable quantity of other securities, BHP and Rio come to mind as examples.
Aussieguru01 @ 1035 – You’ve hit on one of the problems of using stats to decide how well countries do. The Scandinavian countries and Finland have what appear to be highly desirable social societies where all are looked after. Veritable socialist heavens that must gladden marky’s heart.
HOWEVER, they also have among the world’s worst alcohol problems, which is a major reason for booze being so expensive, and very high suicide rates.
MayolFeral
You highlight the problem of looking at statistics and coming to conclusions when you haven’t lived there.
It’s bloody cold in Sweden, 6 months of the year you have to stay inside, no sunlight. Any sane man person could be driven to booze or suicide.
Sweden is a lovely, biggest problem is no gem trees, it’s funny what you miss, but then California has gum trees, but a social system that is a mess.
1041 [California has gum trees, but a social system that is a mess.]
Queensland has gum trees and a growing homelessness problem thanks to the endless interest rate rises.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/qld-homeless-capital-of-australia/2008/03/26/1206207171384.html
TheTelegraph at its anti – Labor best. How dare Rudd go overseas while people are sick. Forget that he has a health minister. The commenters could be straight out of the Liberal Party. They are vicious, just the way the journalist wanted it. Bloody terrible journalism.
Oops, here’s the link.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,23436658-5001021,00.html
Looks like the whole mortgage market needs an overhaul.
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,23438993-5013951,00.html
1040 Mayo
Definitely take your point, but I’ll add that in my experience Australia is one of very few countries that doesn’t have a black market alcohol problem. Like a lot of percieved problems, and there’s no doubt there is one, I’d be surprised if some countries don’t ‘measure’ the problem better than others.
Second issue – tax.
I think there’s a little bit of myth in the high taxation catch cry that goes with northern Europe, because all things are relative. I too believed it without question until one night in Zurich I was involved in a pretty detailed conversation with a head waiter about the costs of living. He initially believed Australia was a ‘cheaper’ place to live too, but after discussing wages, taxation, cost of living and in particular real estate, we discovered that an existance in either Sydney of Melbourne was more expensive. The big proviso he made however was that getting a job in Switzerland was tough, but once you had a long term job, in virtually any area, you could live comfortably.
Since that time I’ve raised a number of the points with people in other European countries and had similar results.
If someone forced me to live in northern Europe, and guaranteed me a job, I wouldn’t be worried about the taxation because I believe the value derived is comensurate.
1041 charles
I agree, and I definitely choose to live here, but there are plenty of people who live over there who would also throw mud at our climate and lifestyle too.
I don’t think you can dismiss their culture because we like our climate.
The point I made earlier was that we should be having a discussion about the positives in their culture, the methods of delivering those positives, and an assessment of whether they are appropriate to us, now or in the future. It seems we are more than happy to talk about interest rates till we keel over, without any rational discussion of the cultural choices we make that drive those rates.
Steve
We haven’t reached the capped interest rates that we had under Frazer ( 13%) and we definitely haven’t reached the levels reached when Keating undid the mess created by capped interest rates ( I remember paying 20%), and our protected economy.
The problem is not the interest rates but that people paid too much believing cheap money would go on forever. Housing prices are above the long term tend.
Lump it all like it prices will go back to the trend line or under it. They did in Japan, they are in the USA and they will here.
Part of making housing affordable is making people realize money is not going to be cheap forever, stop bidding the price up.
Welcome to the training grounds. Sad if your brought before the lesson, good if you held off, housing is going to get cheaper.
The trouble is for some the lesson will be too hard, and that is where cheap housing comes in. In my view it should be flats spread out through the city so it is not the start of another slum, and it should be encouraged by tax concessions, but that is the view of someone who can remember why Bolte got rid of the slums in Victoria, and the problems created by the housing commission high rise flats.
Brendan Nelson said on ABC radio in Perth today that it was important for Rudd to go overseas and would have liked it if he had extended the trip to include Japan as well.
The Lib. choreographer obviously hasn’t got his bears dancing to the same tune…
In looking at the burst Japanese bubble in 2003 the USA problem was known and warnings apparent.
Take It From Japan: Bubbles Hurt
December 25, 2005
Their experiences contain many warnings. One is to shun the sort of temptations that appear in red-hot real estate markets, particularly the use of risky or exotic loans to borrow beyond one’s means. Another is to avoid property that may be hard to unload when the market cools.
Economists say Japan also contains lessons for United States policy makers, like Ben S. Bernanke, who is expected to become chairman of the Federal Reserve at the end of January. At the top of the list is to learn from the failure of Japan’s central bank to slow the rise of the country’s real estate and stock bubbles, and then its failure to soften their collapse. Only recently did Japan finally find ways to revive the real estate market, by using deregulation to spur new development.
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/25/business/yourmoney/25japan.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all&oref=slogin