Newspoll: 59-41

Lateline reports tomorrow’s Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead at 59-41, down from 63-37 a fortnight ago. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 73-7 to 70-10 (hat tip to Blair S. Fairman).

UPDATE: Graphic here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,130 comments on “Newspoll: 59-41”

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  1. Nelson is a dead man walking. If the only ‘bounce’ he can get from the major leg up provided by the OO and the unquestioning gaggle of media geese is 3% then he’s on a road to nowhere.

  2. The wire services had it about two minutes before the Australian website and five minutes before Lateline.

    Nelson would be pleased with 43% rise in his support. 🙂

  3. So after all the MSM & OO’s mudslinging and lies over the past 2 weeks Kev is still St Seventy% and (with MOE) Nelson07 stagnates.
    Laughing so much I just fell off my chair!

  4. Cursory glance, previous thread, at the posts, admittedly, I see that others are as annoyed as I, at Kevin. Tibet. Gee! Israel. Gee! Carers, etc. Gee!

    Little wonder.

    I did express, in an earlier post, that Julia should have fronted the carer stuff, in Kev’s absence. Tactics and so.

    Kev’s accusers intend to attack on his micro managing, non delegation propensities.

    Why on earth not, was Julia, in her inimitable fashion, allowed to address the issues.

    They, the MSM may be correct, in locating Kev’s Achilles.

  5. Woo-hoo – Nelson’s staging a come-back!

    Seriously, though, is the Federal Liberal vote affecting down state voting intentions? Looking back at the WA & NSW polling it would seem that apart from the national effect we should really be seeing Carpenter struggling & Iemma all but out. Iemma in particular seems to have been assisted as O’Farrell hasn’t been too bad as an opposition leader and Iemma has had a disasterous run of late.

    However, maybe the BCC result is showing the way – a complacent ALP could get mauled in WA state, ACT territory & NSW/Vic local elections in the next 6 months. Looking back to the last NSW Newspoll, the combined Green/Other vote was 27% – surely a large number of votes not committing to either ALP/Coalition. When you consider the primaries of ALP & Lib were both 34% – a total major party vote of 68% you’d have to think the major parties were seriously on the nose in NSW. With Iemma I can agree, but with O’Farrell?

    Which brings me back to Council elections – will Wollongate cominbed with Nelson’s lack of popularity (and the sizable unknown factor of O’Farrell) lead people to vote against either major party in NSW Council elections in September? Those who would say ‘what’s the point with Council elections’ should remember that its compulsory to vote in NSW, and parties are entrenched in the system, at least in metro & regional urban areas.

  6. Nelson hits double figures: WOOHOO!
    Turnball must be retreating right now and putting the knives away LOL
    Listening to parliament this afternoon: the Liberals are a dreadful opposition! Even I could beat them right now!
    And, a very entertaining maiden speech earlier today from the new Labor member for Dawson: shock horror, he’s a Pom!

  7. Bloody hell, William had probably one of my wittiest responses ready to send along with a thanks, and bang. Nutthin’. Now I’ll only have a joke with you in an ever receding attempt to type more quickly, and be able to think as well!

  8. StewartJ:O’Farrell is about as inept as Debnam was before him! The Libs in N.S.W would do well to put someone like Mike Baird in the top job!

  9. Re # 10

    Carpenter is doing a great job, and gets v high apporval ratings

    The state is building rail lines, stadiums, museums, desal plants

    Theres no comparison between Iemma and Carpenter. Carpenter & Co are actually doing something

  10. [Theres no comparison between Iemma and Carpenter. Carpenter & Co are actually doing something]

    and that’s despite The West’s Determined effoorts to paint the State Labor Govt as Satan incarnated.

    Troy Buswell on the other hand…….

  11. [And, a very entertaining maiden speech earlier today from the new Labor member for Dawson: shock horror, he’s a Pom!]

    I listened to that, had a good chuckle.

  12. Crikey, get William to give you my personal email address if you need to contact me. William you have my permission to do so

  13. Harry. ‘Up’ is that I am seriously disappointed with Kev. My ardent hope for an improved world, if I may put it like that, is not being realised.

    Kev is allowing himself to be attacked on all fronts, apart from those spoken of, the backdown on the Super Hornets.

    It looks weak, to me, anyway. Bob Brown is correct in condemning Kev’s response to the Tibet/China decimation.

    I just don’t like it.

  14. NSW ALP hasn’t had any possitive press for years, every night on TV news we hear a complaining Lib or a whole press conference of the buggers, yet ALP has still won the last 2 elections. I’m sick to death of Skinner dragging out so called victims for cheap political gain night after night.
    Nelson’s libs are no different, negative, carping, hysterical airheads. They think if the squark as loud as cockatoos they’ll drown out anyone else.
    Seems to me the public aren’t into that style of politics.

  15. Nah, I’m trusting to Dennis to be consistent – he’ll accuse everyone of making an unnecessary fuss about a result which is within the MOE….won’t he?

  16. 20
    What would you have Kev do about Tibet? He’s just one man after all and can’t be expected to solve all the worlds problems.

  17. SeanofPerth @ 15
    hmmm, I’m not so sure. Apart from Allanah, the Ministerial line-up is pretty ordinary. The Govt’s strongest suit is the Opposition, who are just unbelievably weak. There are live policy issues in WA – tax, inflation, water, electricity, hospitals, schools, training, indigenous affairs, alcohol and drugs, crime – and the Govt is vulnerable on a lot of them. They would be unwise to rely forever on the Opposition to keep them in power…

  18. Codger, I am hardly comfortable that you should condone my comments.

    But. I see the pitfalls, for my Government of choice.

    Just want them to get it right.

  19. Vera, 26, sure.

    I expect more, of Kev, in response to human rights issues. I expect a strong response to the murder of citizens, in Tibet, in Iraq, in Afghanistan. Or anywhere, actually. If we are to send forces, to anywhere, or not, I expect the same moral if not physical response to the denial of rights, of any citizen, whether or not we have provided military.

    The principle is the same.

  20. I am disappointed on the Super Hornet decision because of its negative affect on our defense capability as according to Air Power’s analysis and other defense analyst opinions. If it costs x – millions penalty then too bad, you can’t skimp. Wonder what went on behind the scenes? Even my die-hard Liberal friend was hoping for a Eurofighter or F15/16 decision.

    The fall in ALP’s Newspoll figures could also just be the effect of gravity or part gravity.

  21. “the backdown on the Super Hornets.” – This could be straight out of the OO. I don’t recall the government saying they wouldn’t go with them. The defence minister questioned the process and still does.
    Do you have all of the facts of the rights and wrongs of purchasing these aircraft at hand? I certainly don’t but then again I’m not strongly in favour for or against them.

  22. Crikey, I heard Stephen Smith on Tibet at the weekend. I though he had the tone and content just right: pointing out that Australia’s view was the Chinese Govt should allow the people of Tibet to peaceably express their opinions.

    What more should the government do?

    As i understand things, the Dalai Lama has repeated his call for Tibet to be allowed local autonomy while respecting China’s sovereignty. This is a “best-of-both-worlds” solution and might not be within reach, but it is not a radical position.

    If I were Kev, I’d be quietly suggesting to the Chinese that they should talk to the DL – suggesting they have a lot to gain in the West by finding a political path away from confrontation…. but in public i’d be doing exactly what the Foreign Minister has been doing: speak clearly, firmly, with restraint, supporting democratic expression. The Chinese will understand the message, you can be certain of that.

  23. 33 [The fall in ALP’s Newspoll figures could also just be the effect of gravity or part gravity.]

    Kina, rather than gravity I think it has a lot to do with the latest interest rate rise too which is leaving a lot of people feeling hurt and desperate. One can only hope that the rises so far are enough to bring inflation under control and that rates can soon be sent back into a more comfortable zone for the average Australian.

  24. Crikey, I’m very sorry you had such hopes for the Rudd Labor gov’t. I’ve got to say I never had any hopes so high. It was already obvious that the economy was a basket case. We may be heading into depression; the U.S. economy is certainly in Recession, as formally defined. Global climate change is here: the biggest glacier in Antartica is melting at an alarming rate, as are all the other glaciers.
    It is quite depressing to contemplate, but an Australian gov’t of whatever political hue, may be unable to do anything much to change things.
    It’s not very cheering. Like my sister dying of a brain tumour currently. Doesn’t matter who’s in power, she’s still going to die.

  25. Dear me, you are not dopey, Kina, in case I put that poorly.

    and blindoptimist, I watched Stephen Smith, between typing, but…just not comfortable.

    Hopefully, your final para at 35 will come to be.

  26. [Kina, rather than gravity I think it has a lot to do with the latest interest rate rise too which is leaving a lot of people feeling hurt and desperate.]

    When the rates go down again next year Labor will get a boost again and of course take credit for it, after all they are making big noises about fighting inflation. In reality the global economy will do the job and the banks rising cost of credit funds surely should see the RBA finished with its rate rises [a concerned population should also be becoming more reserved in their spending decisions.]

    I remember Howard having a moment on the ABC in 1th 1980s when caught between a rock and hard place with his 20%+ rates – he said how can Australia have low rates when American rates where high.

    Harry that is terrible and very sad news. Most sorry to hear it.

  27. Crikey, Harry! You must have known I had high hopes. We knew that things were going to hell. I cannot imagine what a newly elected Howard Government would have said, not done about the horrendous rainless landscape we have just endured.

    Shit, about your sister. I have lost my youngest. Commiserations.

  28. I am still not convinced by the banks putting up interest rates independently of the Reserve bank either. The sub prime fiasco didn’t just appear after the election of a Labor government but the spectacle of banks raising rates higher than the Reserve Banks rise did. Something strange about the whole scenario I think.

  29. Harry, I too am sorry to hear about your sister. Last year a very close family member of mine died of the same thing.

  30. Labor should be able to make quite a bit of mileage if the rates drop next year. ala Liberals promise “record low” interest rates, they then promptly rise to 10+ year highs. Labor gets in and within 18 months rates fall (for the first time since 2001).

    However, by that time, Australia may have caught the American economic debility, with the consequences unclear at this time, but likely to be unpleasant.

    Economics schmeconomics.

  31. Crikey – Rudd has already done Australia the best favour simply by removing the previous administration, an extremely important moment. Any good he does beyond that is a bonus and, I suspect he will do much good. IF he doesn’t I am sure Julia is looking good as a replacement lol.

    Rudd and Co will no doubt thinking long term. I do believe it will be beneficial to his government that he fully hands over to Gillard when away and to give her and experienced others their own space. Taking the focus off himself some of the time will dilute the media attacks and also guard against over exposure but also build confidence in the govt as a whole.

  32. Crikey, i know what you mean about not quite comfortable…But public caution and private action: i think these will be the methods of this Foreign Minister. Anyway, a he is a big change from the irritating flamboyance and stupid conceit of his predecessor.

  33. Crikey
    Like you I am concerned about human rights abuses. I however have great regard for Kev and consider him a decent human being. I have faith in him and trust in his judjment. Things are being done diplomatically as the following news item shows.

    Chinese diplomat summoned to DFAT
    Michael Cavanagh

    “Australian Foreign Affairs officials have carpeted one of China’s most senior diplomats over Beijing’s handling of the pro-independence demonstrators in Tibet.

    The Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has expressed deep concern over China’s action and now the embassy charge d’affaires has been summoned to the department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

    He was formally told of Australia’s concerns and that this was to be relayed to the Chinese government.

    On the weekend officials from Australia’s Beijing embassy also complained about China’s stand.”

  34. Thank you Kina and Crikey for the personal stuff. Life’s a piece of shit when it comes to the stuff that skewers us personally. I appreciate your thoughts, and, Crickey, Yep, shitfull. Let me know via William when you’ll next be back in Melbourne with or without the ungrateful neice.

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