Newspoll: 59-41

Lateline reports tomorrow’s Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead at 59-41, down from 63-37 a fortnight ago. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 73-7 to 70-10 (hat tip to Blair S. Fairman).

UPDATE: Graphic here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,130 comments on “Newspoll: 59-41”

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  1. Kina 47, you give me hope! A futuristic roller coaster ride a la Possum, is all too scarily possible, if Kev gets it wrong.

  2. Will do, Harry. And the ungrateful niece, she is only 11, and a fantastic little human. I love her dearly. I can be so mean.

  3. Harry , these things put outside stuff into perspective.
    guess we’ve all had it happen but doesn’t make it easier

    and as for the economy , agree Rudd inherited a basket and with the US meltdown I hope Rudd’s spin doctors can get the message out there depite the Oz etc trying to wrongly blame Rudd

  4. 37
    steve Says: One can only hope that the rises so far are enough to bring inflation under control and that rates can soon be sent back into a more comfortable zone …

    I’m with you there, steve. I do also think though, in general, the era of seemingly limitless credit is over. We are going to have to start to save more, rather than just lightly borrow from the global markets. The end of the debt bubble in the US markets – underlined by the loss of confidence in the USD – spells the end of easy money, wherever interest rates end up.

    I’ve already heard of two local cases of business loans being called in by nervous banks in recent weeks. And consumer demand for housing is already being crunched in some locations, even in the tight market here in Perth.

  5. P’raps we need the pipes as Brenda and who knows what we’re going to call him – Fullabull? – lead the charge into the last parliamentary sitting before Easter. What tune? What tune? I nominate Spike Milligan singing I”‘m walking backward for Christmas across the Irish Sea” as my offering. Sorry, I’m just getting silly.

  6. I reckon if people were going to blame Rudd for the economy it would be showing up in polls now. I’m yet to be convinced that people will blame Rudd, given the well pubicised happenings in the US.

  7. Best wishes to Harry!

    59-41! Nothing special, o dear another poll pointing the same way, the Liberals look paled on these polls and are showing no way to unpale themselves.


    Interesting ending;

    “The present riots may be a foretaste of things to come, and a pragmatic assessment of the situation should lead Chinese authorities to rethink their policies. Australia could conceivably play an important role in this process. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is viewed by Chinese leaders as someone who understands them and is sympathetic to Chinese sensibilities. A peaceful and stable Tibet is in everyone’s interests, and if he were to press the case for autonomy during his upcoming visit, it might be better received than if it came from foreigners who are perceived as biased against China.”

  9. Shanahan Shpeaks:

    BRENDAN Nelson and the Coalition have recovered from historic lows of support as Kevin Rudd and the ALP have dropped – just – from their historic highs.

    On all measures there has been a movement away from the record figures two weeks ago when the Coalition was still reeling from policy reversals, Mr Rudd’s dominance and Dr Nelson’s descent into single-figure support.

    After being the first Opposition Leader in the 20-year history of Newspoll surveys to fall into single digits on preferred prime minister, Dr Nelson rose to 10 per cent, according to the latest survey conducted exclusively for The Weekend Australian.

  10. A further word on the little niece. I have, I think said this sometime ago. But it won’t hurt.

    We drove down the coast, to Maslin’s, some two months before the election. We listened to some radio talkback, not ABC, unusually for either of us, in the afternoon, which was all about climate change. The little niece scoffed and was vocal about the need for water conservation, talked about her dull school companions, who did not get it. Talked about how Howard did not get it. Knew her stuff. I told her mother about this discussion.

    The day before the election, I said to the little niece that I had a Kev 07 T Shirt for her to wear. The mother responded by saying the little niece had not made up her mind about politics. Therefore, probably could not wear it. Fat lot you know, mummy.

    Oh well. She tried it on the next day, before we went to the polling booth. Wore it proudly, even though we were kicked out for ‘advertising’ wore it with joy that night, at my friend’s place, which I had decked out in Kev07 balloons, for the election party.

    Balloons she took home.

    We have a Labor girl.

  11. I wonder if Glen will make an appearance to make his customary poll statement in relation to Bull Excretia ? ๐Ÿ™‚

  12. Acknowledging above, at Kev’s so called helplessness, in the face of Tibet. The idea of boycott of Beijing is an idea well worth considering. If Kev, the individual cannot do it, we can urge him.

  13. Frank, I looked at the article at 68.

    I lack faith in even Petro G, at this point. It is something about his membership of a group. Which I read of some days ago.

    Yes, I am extremely distrustful.

  14. [I lack faith in even Petro G, at this point. It is something about his membership of a group. Which I read of some days ago.]

    It’s the same with Judi Moylan, who is my Federal Member, as useful as Tits on a Bull.

    But at least it may cause some more Liberal In-fighting ๐Ÿ™‚

  15. Crikey,
    While also disappointed,am aware of the importance of non-megaphone diplomacy in Asia, unlike the embarrassment caused by the previous lot. He has set a very fast pace and looks tired-trust he will chose his battles carefully and may not be able to change as much as he would wish.
    He has certainly been handed a poisoned chalice what with this financial climate and I am just grateful that we have someone to be proud of again.

  16. Thank you, Megan.

    Again, I am interested to hear, reading between the lines, that I am not alone in my concerns and disappointments. ‘While also disappointed.’

    I do agree with your analysis, but worry, nonetheless.

    Good Grief, I am starting to read like the dreaded troll. Which I am not.

  17. Dealing with China is no simple thing. I’m sure Kev and others are fully aware of all the history and issues surrounding Tibet and China’s extreme sensitivity concerning it over the years. Rather than rushing in with boycotts of no real effect Kev may be more useful as a restraining voice.

    I wouldn’t want to be the Tibetans if most of the world boycotted the Olympics as a result of the problems there. So we may not be helpful in coming straight up with the boycott strategy as a way of helping the Tibetans. Australia could play the good cop part of the good cop bad cop role.

  18. So, Frank, can you refresh me on this group thing? Including Moylan?

    It is as far as I recollect, some power broking Liberal group? Yes? Which struck me as somewhat jarring, I guess, given PG’s what one would think liberal credentials.

  19. [So, Frank, can you refresh me on this group thing? Including Moylan?]

    Basically Moylan & Georgiou are members of a group who were opposed to Howard’s Anti-Terrorism Laws and Supported Refugees etc. I think they are more Small “L” Liberals – a rare breed.

  20. But, Kina. Fine, in its way. I suppose what I have been going on about, is that the public, probably even including me, does not wait about for the measured response.

    I well remember, East Timor, Howard sitting about, doing nothing, people being killed, killed.

    Finally making his decision, based upon for Chrissakes, while we in the suburbs, anguishing and anguishing and exhorting, to fresh air,’do something, do something’ Howard, for shitodear, finally does so, saying his children think it the right thing to do!

    Case in point!

    And I go back, probably to what the MSM accuse Kev of.

    It is no use, deliberating. Just do the obvious thing.

  21. And yes and no, Frank. I will check this out, tomorrow. I am aware of what you are saying, yet what I read was that PG was part of the Liberal power broker group, and that is the little which I find unsettling. Could be wrong. I will see.

  22. No, you’re right, Crikey – I also can’t recall precisely which group it was, but I know that it was something ‘not quite nice’ and that PG was a member – I got a bit of a jolt at the time.

    As for Shanahanahanan saying that the Libs have recovered from historic low levels of support – actually, no, they’re still in historic lows. You can’t say they’ve got out of them until they outdo the previous lows.
    As I said previously, surely he should be arguing that the recent shift isn’t psephologically significant as it is within the MOE? (I know, it isn’t, but neither was the one he created his last storm in a teacup about).

  23. Crikey, tell us what should Kev do.
    Should we
    1 Threaten to boycott the Olympics
    2 Break diplomatic relations with China
    3 Bring our China Consulate home
    4 Threaten them with force if they don’t stop
    5 Stop selling them our Coal, Natural Gas
    6 Send the Chinese Diplomatic staff back to China
    7 Send the SAS over there
    Go on tell us what should be done.
    I understand that you may be a little disappointed with Rudd because, he is being diplomatic with his reaction to what is happening in Tibet. But coming from a friend what is said is taken in, more than from an enemy.

  24. Muskiemp, I move we do all 7, after all we are a major world power and the Chinese are bound to quiver in their boots when we whisper, let alone roar. And we are going to have the Super Hornets soon (or later) as the case may be. If only little Johnny were here, he would know what to do! ๐Ÿ™‚

    But seriously, I do have faith in Kevin to act in a balanced and reasonable way. He of all the pollies has an understanding of Chinese ways and culture, and will choose the most appropriate response.

  25. Crikey Whitey Says:

    “Acknowledging above, at Kevโ€™s so called helplessness, in the face of Tibet. The idea of boycott of Beijing is an idea well worth considering. If Kev, the individual cannot do it, we can urge him.”

    Come on start thinking things through.

    You don’t fix up a counties social problems by destroying their economy be it lraq or China. In the case of China you don’t fix their social problems by destroying our economy.

  26. So Labor 59% TPP, versus 52.7% at the election, hard to see much joy there for the Tories. How many seats would 59% give us, about 110?

  27. Harry ‘Snapper’ Organs – My deepest sympathy to your sister and your family. The big C is never fun, but brain cancer can be particularly difficult. I’m not up to speed on what is available locally, but the Yanks have been getting some good results with gamma knife technology. Not necessarily a cure, but apparently it can sometimes keep the disease at bay for quite a while.

    CW – I’ve been involved with peoples who hav had their lands stolen by others for many years, particularly Tibet. A part of me, a big part, would have loved to see Rudd giving the Chinese a huge serve, but the reality is that it would likely be counterproductive. Plus, given the economic storm clouds brewing, now is not a good time to be p***ing off one of our most important customers.

    BTW-while autonomy within Chinese sovereignty sounds better than their current situation, it would only be so if the Chinese immigrants left and I can’t see the Chinese government agreeing to that. While they remain there can’t be any real autonomy. What really needs to happen is the world community insisting that China obeys international law and leaves Tibet, but that isn’t going to happen, not least because of Israel, or at the local level, West Papua.

  28. 82 steve – on the first issue. Thanks Mr. Howard for nothing. On the second issue, I know Kev is good but not even he can stop these awful happenings.

  29. Nelson attributes his “comeback” to Rudd’s attitude to carers and pensioners. According to Nelson people are beginning to see the REAL Rudd. IE a stingy bureaucrat. I didn’t realise Nelson was a comedian.

  30. Crikey

    Thinking about the Stupid Hornets, it strikes me that neither Rudd nor Fitzgibbon is a defence “expert”. They could easily get snowed. Are they still getting advice from Howard defence appointees trying to cover their butts?

    Maybe Rudd should reconsider having a clean out of PS chiefs. Its one thing not to be vindictive, but people like Jane “children overboard” Halpin and co really have a case to answer for. Same with trade, immigration and defence. It isn’t as though all Howard departmental chiefs were cowed into submission – some raised questions internally; look at the statements Ken Henry has been quoted on. But those others who just went along with the Howard party line hardly served the national interest in doing so, and IMO deserve little sympathy. Many capable people probably had their careers frozen for raising questions.

  31. Boycott Beijing; thats a great idea it doesn’t affect any of us we can still buy new Plasma TV’s (made in China), new consumer goods (also made in China) we don’t suffer at all. China laughs at the stupid gesture and a bunch of athletes hopes and dreams are ruined.

    This is a traditional Australian solution make someone suffer and that makes the problem go away. This worked so well when we boycotted Moscow in 1980 the soviets immediately withdrew from Afghanistan.

    As for Rudd and Smith they are trying to undo 11 years of Downer as Foreign Minister in a Howard government and that cannot be undone in under a few years and certainly not by something as dimwitted as a boycott.

    If anyone thinks there should be a boycott then organise it yourselves start with consumer goods.

  32. Getting back to reality. The carers fiasco didn’t help. The skirmish was well orchestrated by the opposition. Was it good luck or good management? They leaked the lie for the weekend when ministers are on planes etc., when Rudd was out of the country, got away with accusing the government of being the source and generally exploited the Rudd team’s inexperience. Doubtless some of them believed the story came from their camp.

    The end of work choices at last. Who said the government isn’t doing anything. Fun to watch Julie Bishop sitting on her hands.

  33. 89 Kevin Rennie – much of what you say I agree with but if such an emotional, well orchestrated issue still has the opposition miles behind the government, then Nelson is in serious trouble.
    Inspite of what I said in an earlier posting it seems Nelson himself doesn’t believe the carers and pensioners issue had an effect on the poll.

  34. So the ALP are going to be held to a new standard 60/40, anything less is a vote of confidence in Nelson. In reality if the ALP hover anywhere near the 55/45 mark it would be a great result.

    I notice the ABC news radio says Nelson is bouncing back…bwahahahaha and the opposition is crediting it to the Carer payments….in such a small change how would you know?

    I’m sorry Brian N but 7% 9% 10% is god awful especially considered against 70%. Haven’t seen Australians so much of the one mind for a long time.

    Nelson is releasing his agenda at the Press Club today but I wonder if that is good timing given all the distractions – Tibet, USA economy, Housing affordability/rates, the up and coming budget. Better he waited until June.

    But it does look like Labor has done it again, come into power right at the begining of a world recession.

  35. On some levels I almost wish that Howard had won.

    Then all this would have fallen apart on his watch and the biggest lie in Australian politics – that the Liberals are good economic managers – would have been put to bed.

  36. “But it does look like Labor has done it again, come into power right at the begining of a world recession.”

    The Liberals will milk it for all its worth, of course – “Labor is the party of recession; interest rates are always higher under Labor, blah, blah.” But I can’t help thinking that maybe Australians are less ignorant of global conditions and the effect these have here than they did when we were last in recession. The Liberals could just as easily look like their playing dirty, which they would be if they tried to pin a downturn on Labor at this point in time.

    Anyway, ho hum, another Newspoll showing the coalition in dire straits. When was the last time they won a poll? No matter how they spin it, a change from 7% to 10% on PPM is very much in the doldrums. And a rise of 37% to 41% on the 2PP vote is hardly something to celebrate either, especially when coming off a record low.

    So, despite rate increases, the public are very comfortable with Labor, and has been for a long time now if you count the states…

  37. 92 Rates Analyst – the Libs were in power while this was brewing. Remember the warnings of looming problems by Howard? They knew.

  38. I know they knew.

    I knew.

    Anybody with half a brain and an interest in Finance knew.

    I’m afraid I don’t quite see your point.

    Merely knowing it was going to happen doesn’t mean they had any chance of stopping it.

  39. It could be argued that the people voted Labor in, knowing the economy was about to turn down. (Smirky did warn about the approaching ‘tsunami’).

    Better Labor in power at such a time than the Liberals, who would take advantage of the situation to impose even more draconian restrictions on workers’ living standards.

  40. RA @ 92

    Workchoices part two to enslave the workers in the economic downturn and that person establishing he’s own little dictatorship complete with an atomic nuclear power station near you would have become reality.

    I believe the opposition has established their credentials as economic managers…not…no poiny watching the economy going down the gurgler to prove a point…that’s Coalition policy.

  41. A good time to be in Opposition, there will be plenty of things to snipe on if the world economy goes belly up. Now what happened to those $300 billion in surpluses that Howard Costello had over the years?

  42. On the plus side, there’s a real chance the next election will be held in the recovery phase in 3Y time.

    So long as people don’t blame the ALP for the recession that’s about to occur it’s a wonderful time to be in Government.

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