Newspoll: 59-41

Lateline reports tomorrow’s Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead at 59-41, down from 63-37 a fortnight ago. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 73-7 to 70-10 (hat tip to Blair S. Fairman).

UPDATE: Graphic here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,130 comments on “Newspoll: 59-41”

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  1. Could John Ellice-Flint, the ex Managing Director of Santos (resigned Tuesday), be the next Member for Mayo?

    The word is that Alexander Downer has been in contact (& was seen in the office), & with his Ellice-Flint’s Liberal Party contacts, he’d be a near certainty for preselection.

  2. 1011 marky marky Well if Rudds cabinet lacks talent it certainly puts everyone in the previous government to shame. So what does it say about them? Well that’s pretty obvious.

  3. The Libs can preselect my neighbour’s cat for all I care, just so long as I don’t have to see Lord Lunchalot’s silly grin on the telly ever again!!!!!

  4. Chris B, would not take much to have superiority over Howards’ cabinet. Nevertheless, a cabinet should be about ideas and i don’t see much in the way of this, what of Swan, struggles to enunicate a view in parliament, Conroy good at number crunching and factional nonsense but policy in one of the most important areas communications, before the election no policy and currently he still can’t work out one. Ellis, Wong and Macklin- actually Ellis and Wong want to say something but are told what to say, and Macklin well she did her best work when she was a bureaucrat and that is all she is.
    The best performer is Gillard and perhaps Fitzgibbon, the rest sorry are factional hacks and are making up the numbers. Fitzy is getting down to work and doing something.
    Oh forget about Roxen another lawyer and factional hack, she is at least trying i suppose but again she is in it for the faction.
    Saw one Female Cabinet Minister can’t recall who it was in Parliament actually reading her statement out to Parliament when the Libs questioned her, could not talk of the cuff, pathetic.
    Why is Rudd seeing the queen on his visit- is this necessary.

  12. ruawake – these are the folk who elected George, and who McCain will do just about anything to please so they’ll elect him!

  13. Charles

    Thanks for the point – What is rational policy? that’s it – what get’s up will ultimately depend on the values of the country – there are numerous policy positions that could work i am sure – and all will have different values outcome – what get’s up depends if you are with the 51% of the population

    eg: for more egalitarian societies you need to pay a reasonable level of tax to have universal health care, education – not 100,000 degrees – and a generous welfare system – so as a society all have to pay for this – these societies agree to this cause they can see that it benefits everybody – interdependence I guess you could say
    America’s do not place much emphasis on those values – its a more elitist society – and therefore they agree to low tax, and a flat tax as well – if you were anti-elitist then you would suggest a progressive tax system

    I saw a transcript of an interview by Alan Greenspan vis a vis Naomi Klein – he basically said the only alternative to his ideology is state based socialism – as if there are no positions in between to take – the question is that Alan has said in his book “The Age of Turbulence” that he was distressed about the extreme income disparity in America. Well, the question which he did not answer is – if this is the case, why has he not explored other positions on the scale to reduce the income disparity, given that he would be aware that European countries have less income disparity and have less people living in poverty – Sweden has about 3% of children living in poverty, compared with about 20% in America.

  14. Ruawake at #1111
    The “Onion” is a satirical site.
    Not meant to be taken seriously.
    It frequently gets mistaken for being serious because it’s parodies in extremis unfortunately often closely reflect some of the nuttier mobs around the place.

  15. bird

    The us tax rates isn’t flat

    US Federal personal tax rates
    10% 0 to $7000
    15% $7001 to $28,400
    25% $28,401 to $68,800
    28% $68,800 to $143,500
    33% $143,501 to $311,950
    35% $311,650 +

    They generally have a state GST tax that is in the same order as us.

    I’ve spent more of my life in the USA that I want to, I think the USA has the following problems.

    1) They spend too much on making war.
    2) The USA made war with Mexico and won, claiming a lot of new territory. Mexico is now in the process of taking it back using people not guns. In two US states English is now a minority language. Just imagine what that is doing to their social structures.
    3) I don’t think the standard of political service is as high in the USA, i think if you are honest about Australian politics, we have had on both side of politics people who were smart and who put the development of Australia first. In short Australia has had enough rational policy to build a reasonable society.
    4)The USA builds very little to last as an example the Whitehouse only got build in Brick after the wooden one got burnt down by the Canadians. The ticky tacky looks pretty run down after a few years.

  17. Charles, my point was that the US has low taxes – I know it does not have flat tax but many people on the Republican side of things advocate.

    My general point was about value priorities – and that rational policy will be based on this.

    My understanding is that America has imposed a flat tax of 15% on Iraq – its imposing their ideology on the country if you look at the evidence

  19. ANother point:

    Stiglitz says in his globalisation book written a few years ago now that he wishes that everyone could put their ideology behind them and look at what independent information is saying – Stiglitz was commenting on the continued dumping on neoliberalism on 3rd world countries –

    The question is: the World Bank/IMF etc – all Govt’s must have all the evidence about the ramifications of these policies, which is often quite damming – so the question is – why after 30 years of evidence, does not these international institutions explore other policies?

    The only answer that one can come up with – and its the conclusion of anybody who has studied this area and is involved, is that the reason they don’t is because the primary objective is to choose an ideology that feeds into the interests of western multinationals

  22. bird

    The question I ask is: what is neoliberalism, and once that is defined, what is it’s problems and then who is responsible for pushing it.

    It would be interesting to look back at some of the world bank “failures” and look at where they are now.

    Take the Australian Example, Keating dragged us kicking and screaming into the modern world, people still bitch that home loan rates were exposed to the interest rates that were destroying our economy under Frazer ( a good man that had to work with a shit treasurer stuck in the 50s in my view). Ok we had some pain, but would Australia now be better off if the economy was still regulated as it was. My view is it would not be. Just take the current housing problems, which is where I think this all started, Australia can have all options on the table because we have a rich working economy. What option we should take is another issue.

  24. 1120
    Kina
    I can imagine Nelson contemplating what significate deals Rudd might propose over the next week and he thought “What happens if Rudd mentions the US sihning Kyoto and Bush actually is warm (no pun intended) to the idea? Gosh, I’d better mention this as a desirable outcome so that I can claim to have been the catalyst.”

    It’s just cynical opportunism rather than real conviction. I do like your reference to Haneef, Hicks and nuclear reactors. Rudd certainly was guilty of me-tooing during the election campaign but Nelson has started me-tooing with 3 years to go. He’s going to look less and less as a real alternative as each month passes.

  25. Nelson has a new Workchoices. Same policy just change the name – poor guy has been asaulted by the hard-right again.

    Dr Nelson will today tell The Australian and Melbourne Institute’s New Agenda for Prosperity Conference that the Coalition will champion a form of individual agreement that has no reference to a collective agreement, such as an award or enterprise bargain.
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23443873-5016654,00.html

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