Analysis and discussion of elections and opinion polls in Australia
Morgan: 60.5-39.5
Roy Morgan’s first face-to-face poll of the Rudd era shows Labor with a predictably bloated two-party lead of 60.5-39.5. Read all about it here.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
There will be a redistribution in Victoria before 2010 so no-one can know what McEwen will be like then. It’s quite possible they will chop out the urban bits in the south and turn it back into a rural seat and thus safe for the Libs. It could even be abolished if Vic loses a seat.
I see Calare and Parkes have been declared so two narrow escapes for the Nats there. The Coalition has had all the breaks in the late count.
Jen think the Greens will get their recount for the Vic Senate???
Except for Solomon, the ALP got that seat don’t forget that….
Labor should let McEwen go, it’s not worth contesting. They can win it next time.
Glen, you were complaining that labor stole your tax policy and now you have admitted that they are inflationary. Of course PM Rudd (gosh that sounds good) must have avoided being wedged. It’s all the liberals fault if inflation rises due to their tax cuts which the P.M. is now bound to honour to a certain degree!
Marky is complaining about the labor party because he wanted loony Latham to be P.M.
Glen.
do you think I’ll win?
Have to agree, Steve K at 490.
Can’t commit suicide over the tax cuts. The LAW death. What makes sense does not necessarily appeal. Despite the common sense of the electorate, public expenditure is favoured over tax cuts. Yet, doesn’t electorally number crunch when it comes right down to it.
Whipping Boy, Labor, otherwise. Promises are promises. Still go with my earlier invite that Kev find ways and means of encouraging savings, rather than consumerism, per my earlier post on the topic. Given that the money will be out there.
And thanks to else, but esp. Ed@Bennelong 318.
Labor policy on tax savings for first home buyers.
Yet I think Labor needs go further, to encourage ways and means of saving.
Signs have it, already, from the economists, that pennies saved, are recommended. Not shares.
Probably mean LA Law death. Same thing, really. Promise is or should be, law.
I’ve just been reminded that my tip of 83 seats now seems to have come true, 3 years of bragging rights won’t be so bad 😉
504
Centre – Mr Speaker, Mr Speaker they will only be inflationary if coupled with Labor’s IR policy the Coalition’s IR policy was non-inflationary by all accounts.
Jen it depends on how many thousand votes your candidate needs to win a spot, do you have them in a shoebox???
Yes i agree CW after all you can’t renege on two policies, i mean now that ‘ending the blame game’ has been exposed as a non-core promise, not delivering on tax cuts and reducing spending together would give Malcolm and Brendan alot of ammo to use against Prime Minister Rudd and Treasurer Swan.
Well PB’s-
it’s been fun.
Good wishes to you all , even Glen. And a happy and prosperous future despite glogal warming and terrorism and the prospect of Alexander as the leader of the Libs…
It’s been a wonderful ride .
as a committed Green I am delighted with Kevin so far.
So best wishes for the festive season, and thanks for a hoot of an election campaign.
Jen
xxxx
That would be “global”.
Not speaking to you, Glen. Bit annoyed. Out to lunch, long, were you not, when I asked you a question.
Glen @ 492
The problem for Rudd is he’s wedged himself, he promised massive tax cuts but these will then raise rates either way its not looking good for the Rooster and Tin Tin.
And what do you believe those two economic ‘”geniuses”, Howie and Cossie, would have done about their promised even more massive tax cuts, Glen? Kept the ones at the high end and screwed the peasants…….. again?
Anyway im not complaining ill get tax cuts and see interest rate rises which will bring the Libs back into play.
Only if the government lets the LNP off the hook about who caused the mess. Each and every time Swan inflicts pain on the electorate it should be accompanied by the full symphony about how the coalition wasted the mining boom profits instead of educating the people and building the infrastructure we need to keep the country prosperous. Fortunately, Rudd, as he demonstrated by including Hawke and Keating in the campaign, seems to have grasped the stupidity of letting your opponent rewrite history to take credit for your hard work.
Sorry CW what was the question i must have gone when u asked it. Id be more than happy to answer??
Adam,
Just out of interest; as an ALP member do you personally think it’s worthwhile to challenge McEwan, and do you think Labor would win a subsequent by-election?
When someone says something a bit radical the attack dogs come out. That is the problem with the Labor Party today no guts, no will, full of half bakes concerned about perceptions of the media. Tax cuts should stay, yep okay they will be attacked from pillar to post to do otherwise. But it was stupid politics in the first place, in having them.
Can i ask all you Labor people what do you believe in, do you believe in a fairer better world or one in which our Labor State Governments are continuing to pander to big business, privatise public utilities ( NSW ), engage in public privatise partnerships, costing taxpayers millions more than traditional means of financing and in the process helping the financial big wigs who own the assets. The partnerships have been an abysmal failure overseas, watch as our state governments do very little on climate change, in which latest reports suggest that the arctic will be fully melted in the summer by 2012!
And Centre yep i preferred Latham, simply because he didn’t pander to the media barrons which most of you people get your information and your ideas from. Love hearing from you Centre, another typical Labor man.
And economists yep they should be listened to don’t ever remember one of them predicting a recession in 1989, not one, and when i look at economists readings each year regarding yearly GDP predictions do i ever see one economist get it correct.
Now lets hear all of you bark.
Oh dear, Glen is celebrating the apparent reelection of another useless, dud Liberal MP. What on earth will Ms Bailey be able to do for her constituents in the next 3 years? Brenden Nelson even thinks so little of her that he dumped her from the shadow ministry. Rudd sure as hell won’t spend a dime on McEwen.
Oh yes, you can bet Fran won’t be saying any more about apparent electoral fraud!
You gotta feel sorry for Rob Mitchell!
516
marky marky
Who is Latham?
Labor’s IR policy should not be inflationary because it is tied to productivity. Liberal’s IR policy was also non inflationary because it would cut wages (if we are fair dinkum). Therefore Glen, IR is not really an inflationary issue.
Labor winning the next election is NOT a foregone conclusion. This government has a lot of work to do in restoring the balance an investing in the current prosperity of economic growth. But I’m sure their is enough talent across the labor team to deliver the goods.
516
marky marky
Oh, that’s right. He’s the guys that almost blew labor off the map and them pissed off to sulk for the rest of his life.
516
marky marky
Oh, that’s right. He’s the guy that almost blew labor off the map and them pissed off to sulk for the rest of his life.
And Glen, how can you justify one of Ms Bailey’s scrutineer’s behaving in a threatening manner towards a female employee of the AEC?
Ask yourself about the forestry policy which was derailed by the CFMEU and the forestry union who pandered to the Liberal party two days before an election, actually stood on a stage with Howard and said he was great bloke. And what did we get because of this union workchoices, they should be booted out of ALP. But Steve it was all Lathams’ fault.
509
Glen Says:
“Centre – Mr Speaker, Mr Speaker they will only be inflationary if coupled with Labor’s IR policy the Coalition’s IR policy was non-inflationary by all accounts.”
you inadvertently make a good point here. the previous govt.’s ir policy was ‘non-inflationary’ because it slashed wages and conditions (in the long term it would have lead to a sharp contraction in discretionary spending and made the oncoming debt crisis worse). they ran around telling everyone who would listen that they wanted you to earn less and still the sheep voted to be sheared. at the same time they also said that you’d earn more under workchoices, which would make it inflationary. a different flavour of truth for every customer it seems.
Latham had sunk labor weeks before the mugs in Tassie kissed howard’s rump and certainly before Latham’s bone crushing handshake. Latham was a disaster waiting to happen. Having said that I think his “conga line of suck holes” is the best one liner in modern australian politics – a classic and so true.
Jen and others.
The electoral losers, with their miserable handbag votes, will realise by next time that handbags are commonly known to contain a lot of detritus. And they are very heavy, on the shoulder.
New handbags are much more promising. Bearing the weight of the old, for the next few years, may put many joints out.
And so, good. Time will tell. And best wishes to you, Jen.
Glen, thanks for your response. So far.
My topic relates to my 274 and my subsequent to you, at 286.
The general idea was responded to, by others, Singling out Ed at Bennelong, for the Labor tax policy, first home savers. Which I examined. Thanks, Ed.
So without defending anything Liberal or Howard, Glen, an answer from you, regarding such principle and its execution, would be welcome. I cannot see why you would object.
My post was: ‘Anyway, remember that scheme of Howard’s, to introduce a starter price for grandparents et al, to line their pockets on a no doubt ever escalating scale, tax free investment for they, their grandkiddies, and god knows who else, to save up for a house? Fine details elude me.
What if Kev introduced some kind of one off over three years, once in a lifetime offer, to match, in whatever dollars, savings made from income tax cuts, as long as the savings remained in an account, of some kind, preferably not with a bank, as they would be eaten immediately.
Idea being to avoid the money pumping into the consumer economy’.
Over to you.
PS: Good to see you survived the air strike.
Actually told the truth, Steve. A group of moribunds’ interested in travel allowances and superannuation benefits than actually doing things for the good of this nation and the battlers in labor seats who put them their.
Progressive then by your logic, there should be no Opposition MPs because what can they do for their electorates??? That’s a fairly stupid way of looking at politics, and anyway all the time she’s been an MP and Minister im sure she’s delivered on promises for McEwen.
Brendan Nelson wanted to blood some nubies and before you talk about BB she’s perfect for the Vets affairs role, A being old and B being a former defence minister.
Progressive i thought Rudd said he would govern for all Australians??? That’s being a bit harsh to people simply because they didnt vote for KR is it not? If Rudd does not spend a dime on McEwen he can kiss that seat goodbye in 2010 and hand Bailey a wider majority.
Rob Mitchell wouldnt have expected to win the seat anyway that is before the 6 vote win was prematurely declared. Nevertheless im sure the ALP can find him a State seat if he’s talented.
Progressive speaking of dud MPs Labor has their fair share too…
Steve, maybe so but many people make their minds a day or to before polling day, and the Senate was blown because of this unions’ pathetic stance. Latham i agree was fraught in some areas- poor consultation skills etc but he wanted to do things and was willing to speak his mind. Will not get this from Rudd, i have no idea what this guy believes, except his catholicism. At least Latham was agnostic.
Glen,
Rob Mitchell was a State MLC, who missed out when the Labor Government reduced the size of the Upper House in carrying out the Liberals’ broken 1973 election promise to reform it.
Glen, Glen, Glen: resurrecting Bronwyn Bishop is a sign of weakness, not strength!
After all her bleating about the unfairness of the vote counting process, I can’t wait for Fran to start praising the integrity of the AEC, and of course she’ll no doubt brand Rob Mitchell a sore loser as well! What a bitch!
Marky marky,
You ask all the Labor people what do they believe in: do they “believe in a fairer better world or one in which our Labor State Governments are continuing to pander to big business, privatise public utilities ( NSW ), engage in public privatise partnerships, costing taxpayers millions more than traditional means of financing and in the process helping the financial big wigs who own the assets”? I believe in a fairer world, but that does not mean I agree with everything you say.
You are a member of the Labor Party, I believe, so I suggest you put some energy into pushing your views inside the party.
CW
Well firstly it would have to be for all people and not means tested to allow for greater equality as everybody is finding it hard to get a house even the moderately wealthy. But i suppose you would have to cap the amount. The logistics would be difficult, you’d have to sort something out with the banks which would be hard.
Secondly why not also refuse to fund State infrastructure projects unless they agree to consistently make appropriate land releases as well as reduce stamp duty and land taxes sufficiently so that the price of owning your own home would decrease. That would be a good idea.
Thirdly are we talking a future fund deal, ie locked box and the can be added to with future surplus’s???
Fourthly it would be politically damaging to Rudd breaking his LAW tax cuts, but he could do it atm considering the Libs are in a complete mess atm.
Personally i liked Howie’s plan better but i am biased. Nevertheless i think there is more we can do other than $$ giveaways to make housing more affordable. I think the States have a lot to answer for IMHO.
Marcus, whether it’s worth taking the McEwen (note spelling!) result to court requires local knowledge I don’t have. There would have to be very good grounds or it would just look petulant. I think Labor would win a by-election now, but a court case could take many months, and history says incumbent governments rarely win by-elections.
Marky do you know what really brought down Latham? His failed promise to cut the crudity.
Latham lost his cool and got sucked in to a “bate” from Downer. Latham called Downer a pathetic disgusting fraud and repeated it at the top of his voice in parliament. It was shown all over the news and the liberals had a field day claiming that Latham was showing his true colours.
A few days later, after taking such a hit for the fist time, Latham promised to “bring troops home by Xmas’. It completely exposed his loose cannon disposition. That was the end of Latham from that moment. IMHO, Latham was no statesman, but more of a thug!
Chris Curtis, agree, do so, but you see i get people like you and Steve, and recently Paul K and Adam all believing that Labor is doing a great job. For whom is the question.
And with a party stacked full a factional hacks, in unions, on conference floors, policy committees, branches who rarely report the truth, that includes branch committees with the secretary usually a factional member from that faction who dominates the branch. Then you have labor people who join community groups to find out what goes on and than either report back or get people to join the party and join a faction to learn the ropes and learn ideals without actually knowing what to believe. Must say the whole process is so disillusioning. Chris when you understand how the whole process works like i do you get depressed about what hope is their for ordinary people and on ways to break down omnipotence of structures which present themselves.
As i mentioned a case in point the forestry union, their power ensures massive subsidies for native forests and an incoherent forestry policy. Chris you are right get involved, but what you need is a group of people to understand where you coming from and i suppose than you become a faction and the process continues. lol.
Centre i thought it was Keating that called Downer a digusting fraud. Agree he was no statesman never said he was. Perhaps also he needed to keep his emotions in check, Taxi Driver etc, but the media went overboard with him, attacking him left right and centre, especially the murdoch press, who hated him because he did not wish to speak to Rupert. Unlike Rudd who makes a special trip to New York to have lunch, don’t tell me you all agree with this. Now we see who runs the country.
Well, Bailey’s had her go – now Mitchell should demand another recount, scrute it to the max, and come up trumps by 10.
Fact is, with votes that that close, a good solid scrutineering effort will always swing it one way or the other.
But meh – who really cares. 83, 84, whatevs.
The Rodent (aka John Who?) is no more. 🙂
At least you knew where Latham stood on issues instead of ‘Rudd speak’, ‘when it comes to’ ect.
Labor would be silly to contest McEwen without good reason.
In six months time (which is how long it would take to go through court) there could be a myriad of reasons why they’d lose, and any loss there would cost them momentum.
I can’t see any reason why (as some have claimed) Bailey’s re-election is necessarily bad news for McEwen’s electors – after all, they’ll have a member on a knife edge and therefore presumably keen, and the Govt may well make promises to try to woo them next time!
Progressive, you’re getting pretty worked up over one seat, aren’t you?
Do you have actual evidence that the Libs did something dodgy there? Or just a view based on your own pre-existing prejudices?
Glen you only say that because you are playing politics, and wish to stir the political pot on Rudd, simply put what do the Liberals believe in? And on saying that what does Labor believe in?
I tell you, its a pleasure to watch the news these days and not see:
– Howard’s halitoxic shiny head opining tediously on every bleeding issue from Iraq to hoons, elbowing his way into state and even council debates in a desperate bid for relevance
-Downer’s ludicrous visage whining mincily about world issues like some old Aunty
Just Brendan Nelson confounding the punters with his hair.
To put it simply marky they both believe in getting elected and doing a good job of running Australia.
Marky, I’m certain the words Latham used were to that effect. Maybe he paligarised?
I believe in a lot of the things you believe in. But you must be professional in restoring the balance. I hope PM Rudd delivers!
Been good communicating with you all, good night.
marky marky,
I don’t believe that Labor is doing a great job, but it has done a much better job than the Liberals did in Victoria and it will do a much better job than the Liberals did federally. The branch which I previously belonged to had an executive with at least four of its five members who did not belong to any faction. I have had a say on Labor Party policy which has made a difference because I have made the effort. Ordinary people will have as much say as they insist upon. I could go on at length about the last point (e.g., the way it is teachers’ own fault their pay and conditions are so bad), but it is a little late, and, unlike people who have holidays to break their routine, I have to get up tomorrow like every other day of the year and go to retirement.
Yes I think it is time for me to put the cue into the rack. I would like to wish all of you a merry xmas and a successful in resolutions new year. See u guys in 08.
543 Lefty E, an elephant stamp and a silver star for that little effort! Love the imagery.
Glen, in response.
Well firstly it would have to be for all people and not means tested to allow for greater equality as everybody is finding it hard to get a house even the moderately wealthy. But i suppose you would have to cap the amount. The logistics would be difficult, you’d have to sort something out with the banks which would be hard.
Me: Cap the amount. Cap it on income. So that the immoderately wealthy are not beneficiaries, at the expense of those who wish to get their first own home.
Glen: Secondly why not also refuse to fund State infrastructure projects unless they agree to consistently make appropriate land releases as well as reduce stamp duty and land taxes sufficiently so that the price of owning your own home would decrease. That would be a good idea.
Me: Reduce stamp duty, yes. Land release, harder. Involves infrastructure spending, and all kinds of logistics, including expansion without thinking of the enviromental consequence. This, though, depends also on the amount no longer being afforded to the States, that is, the small, in return, amount of GST. The money, the revenue, is all in the capacious pockets of the Federal Government, so far.
An equitable redistribution would assist, on the old basis of Commonwealth/State input. This would go a long way to ensuring that the States met their obligations.
And the Feds must enforce. I could tell you of many examples where my State, at least , has failed to honour its percentage commitment to its own share, more usually something like 60/40. Labor State. Not pleased, myself, that the cynicism has affected Labor.
In fact, harking back to Aboriginal issues, I questioned the local HAAC funding program, using the CDEP monies as the State’s contribution to the Federal funding, in a specific instance. Using Commonwealth money to get Commonwealth money. A disgrace and unsustainable. Especially if CDEP was changed. Well, as things come to pass, not in the instance I am talking of, but take, NT.
It is not good enough for the State’s to employ such means, and I think they should honour their obligations first, as opposed to spending foolish money elsewhere, such as the much unneeded pavilion at the Racecourse, Victoria Park. And what is this nonsense over Cheltenham?
You: Thirdly are we talking a future fund deal, ie locked box and the can be added to with future surplus’s???
Me: No, I said a one off offer, in this case. Not a future fund. These things can assist, but should not be forever, review is always necessary.
You:Fourthly it would be politically damaging to Rudd breaking his LAW tax cuts, but he could do it atm considering the Libs are in a complete mess atm.
Me: Disagree with breaking, obviously it would come back to haunt.
You:Personally i liked Howie’s plan better but i am biased. Nevertheless i think there is more we can do other than $$ giveaways to make housing more affordable. I think the States have a lot to answer for IMHO.
There will be a redistribution in Victoria before 2010 so no-one can know what McEwen will be like then. It’s quite possible they will chop out the urban bits in the south and turn it back into a rural seat and thus safe for the Libs. It could even be abolished if Vic loses a seat.
I see Calare and Parkes have been declared so two narrow escapes for the Nats there. The Coalition has had all the breaks in the late count.
Jen think the Greens will get their recount for the Vic Senate???
Except for Solomon, the ALP got that seat don’t forget that….
Labor should let McEwen go, it’s not worth contesting. They can win it next time.
Glen, you were complaining that labor stole your tax policy and now you have admitted that they are inflationary. Of course PM Rudd (gosh that sounds good) must have avoided being wedged. It’s all the liberals fault if inflation rises due to their tax cuts which the P.M. is now bound to honour to a certain degree!
Marky is complaining about the labor party because he wanted loony Latham to be P.M.
Glen.
do you think I’ll win?
Have to agree, Steve K at 490.
Can’t commit suicide over the tax cuts. The LAW death. What makes sense does not necessarily appeal. Despite the common sense of the electorate, public expenditure is favoured over tax cuts. Yet, doesn’t electorally number crunch when it comes right down to it.
Whipping Boy, Labor, otherwise. Promises are promises. Still go with my earlier invite that Kev find ways and means of encouraging savings, rather than consumerism, per my earlier post on the topic. Given that the money will be out there.
And thanks to else, but esp. Ed@Bennelong 318.
Labor policy on tax savings for first home buyers.
Yet I think Labor needs go further, to encourage ways and means of saving.
Signs have it, already, from the economists, that pennies saved, are recommended. Not shares.
Probably mean LA Law death. Same thing, really. Promise is or should be, law.
I’ve just been reminded that my tip of 83 seats now seems to have come true, 3 years of bragging rights won’t be so bad 😉
504
Centre – Mr Speaker, Mr Speaker they will only be inflationary if coupled with Labor’s IR policy the Coalition’s IR policy was non-inflationary by all accounts.
Jen it depends on how many thousand votes your candidate needs to win a spot, do you have them in a shoebox???
Yes i agree CW after all you can’t renege on two policies, i mean now that ‘ending the blame game’ has been exposed as a non-core promise, not delivering on tax cuts and reducing spending together would give Malcolm and Brendan alot of ammo to use against Prime Minister Rudd and Treasurer Swan.
Well PB’s-
it’s been fun.
Good wishes to you all , even Glen. And a happy and prosperous future despite glogal warming and terrorism and the prospect of Alexander as the leader of the Libs…
It’s been a wonderful ride .
as a committed Green I am delighted with Kevin so far.
So best wishes for the festive season, and thanks for a hoot of an election campaign.
Jen
xxxx
That would be “global”.
Not speaking to you, Glen. Bit annoyed. Out to lunch, long, were you not, when I asked you a question.
Glen @ 492
And what do you believe those two economic ‘”geniuses”, Howie and Cossie, would have done about their promised even more massive tax cuts, Glen? Kept the ones at the high end and screwed the peasants…….. again?
Only if the government lets the LNP off the hook about who caused the mess. Each and every time Swan inflicts pain on the electorate it should be accompanied by the full symphony about how the coalition wasted the mining boom profits instead of educating the people and building the infrastructure we need to keep the country prosperous. Fortunately, Rudd, as he demonstrated by including Hawke and Keating in the campaign, seems to have grasped the stupidity of letting your opponent rewrite history to take credit for your hard work.
Sorry CW what was the question i must have gone when u asked it. Id be more than happy to answer??
Adam,
Just out of interest; as an ALP member do you personally think it’s worthwhile to challenge McEwan, and do you think Labor would win a subsequent by-election?
When someone says something a bit radical the attack dogs come out. That is the problem with the Labor Party today no guts, no will, full of half bakes concerned about perceptions of the media. Tax cuts should stay, yep okay they will be attacked from pillar to post to do otherwise. But it was stupid politics in the first place, in having them.
Can i ask all you Labor people what do you believe in, do you believe in a fairer better world or one in which our Labor State Governments are continuing to pander to big business, privatise public utilities ( NSW ), engage in public privatise partnerships, costing taxpayers millions more than traditional means of financing and in the process helping the financial big wigs who own the assets. The partnerships have been an abysmal failure overseas, watch as our state governments do very little on climate change, in which latest reports suggest that the arctic will be fully melted in the summer by 2012!
And Centre yep i preferred Latham, simply because he didn’t pander to the media barrons which most of you people get your information and your ideas from. Love hearing from you Centre, another typical Labor man.
And economists yep they should be listened to don’t ever remember one of them predicting a recession in 1989, not one, and when i look at economists readings each year regarding yearly GDP predictions do i ever see one economist get it correct.
Now lets hear all of you bark.
Oh dear, Glen is celebrating the apparent reelection of another useless, dud Liberal MP. What on earth will Ms Bailey be able to do for her constituents in the next 3 years? Brenden Nelson even thinks so little of her that he dumped her from the shadow ministry. Rudd sure as hell won’t spend a dime on McEwen.
Oh yes, you can bet Fran won’t be saying any more about apparent electoral fraud!
You gotta feel sorry for Rob Mitchell!
516
marky marky
Who is Latham?
Labor’s IR policy should not be inflationary because it is tied to productivity. Liberal’s IR policy was also non inflationary because it would cut wages (if we are fair dinkum). Therefore Glen, IR is not really an inflationary issue.
Labor winning the next election is NOT a foregone conclusion. This government has a lot of work to do in restoring the balance an investing in the current prosperity of economic growth. But I’m sure their is enough talent across the labor team to deliver the goods.
516
marky marky
Oh, that’s right. He’s the guys that almost blew labor off the map and them pissed off to sulk for the rest of his life.
516
marky marky
Oh, that’s right. He’s the guy that almost blew labor off the map and them pissed off to sulk for the rest of his life.
And Glen, how can you justify one of Ms Bailey’s scrutineer’s behaving in a threatening manner towards a female employee of the AEC?
Ask yourself about the forestry policy which was derailed by the CFMEU and the forestry union who pandered to the Liberal party two days before an election, actually stood on a stage with Howard and said he was great bloke. And what did we get because of this union workchoices, they should be booted out of ALP. But Steve it was all Lathams’ fault.
509
Glen Says:
you inadvertently make a good point here. the previous govt.’s ir policy was ‘non-inflationary’ because it slashed wages and conditions (in the long term it would have lead to a sharp contraction in discretionary spending and made the oncoming debt crisis worse). they ran around telling everyone who would listen that they wanted you to earn less and still the sheep voted to be sheared. at the same time they also said that you’d earn more under workchoices, which would make it inflationary. a different flavour of truth for every customer it seems.
Latham had sunk labor weeks before the mugs in Tassie kissed howard’s rump and certainly before Latham’s bone crushing handshake. Latham was a disaster waiting to happen. Having said that I think his “conga line of suck holes” is the best one liner in modern australian politics – a classic and so true.
Jen and others.
The electoral losers, with their miserable handbag votes, will realise by next time that handbags are commonly known to contain a lot of detritus. And they are very heavy, on the shoulder.
New handbags are much more promising. Bearing the weight of the old, for the next few years, may put many joints out.
And so, good. Time will tell. And best wishes to you, Jen.
Glen, thanks for your response. So far.
My topic relates to my 274 and my subsequent to you, at 286.
The general idea was responded to, by others, Singling out Ed at Bennelong, for the Labor tax policy, first home savers. Which I examined. Thanks, Ed.
So without defending anything Liberal or Howard, Glen, an answer from you, regarding such principle and its execution, would be welcome. I cannot see why you would object.
My post was: ‘Anyway, remember that scheme of Howard’s, to introduce a starter price for grandparents et al, to line their pockets on a no doubt ever escalating scale, tax free investment for they, their grandkiddies, and god knows who else, to save up for a house? Fine details elude me.
What if Kev introduced some kind of one off over three years, once in a lifetime offer, to match, in whatever dollars, savings made from income tax cuts, as long as the savings remained in an account, of some kind, preferably not with a bank, as they would be eaten immediately.
Idea being to avoid the money pumping into the consumer economy’.
Over to you.
PS: Good to see you survived the air strike.
Actually told the truth, Steve. A group of moribunds’ interested in travel allowances and superannuation benefits than actually doing things for the good of this nation and the battlers in labor seats who put them their.
Progressive then by your logic, there should be no Opposition MPs because what can they do for their electorates??? That’s a fairly stupid way of looking at politics, and anyway all the time she’s been an MP and Minister im sure she’s delivered on promises for McEwen.
Brendan Nelson wanted to blood some nubies and before you talk about BB she’s perfect for the Vets affairs role, A being old and B being a former defence minister.
Progressive i thought Rudd said he would govern for all Australians??? That’s being a bit harsh to people simply because they didnt vote for KR is it not? If Rudd does not spend a dime on McEwen he can kiss that seat goodbye in 2010 and hand Bailey a wider majority.
Rob Mitchell wouldnt have expected to win the seat anyway that is before the 6 vote win was prematurely declared. Nevertheless im sure the ALP can find him a State seat if he’s talented.
Progressive speaking of dud MPs Labor has their fair share too…
Steve, maybe so but many people make their minds a day or to before polling day, and the Senate was blown because of this unions’ pathetic stance. Latham i agree was fraught in some areas- poor consultation skills etc but he wanted to do things and was willing to speak his mind. Will not get this from Rudd, i have no idea what this guy believes, except his catholicism. At least Latham was agnostic.
Glen,
Rob Mitchell was a State MLC, who missed out when the Labor Government reduced the size of the Upper House in carrying out the Liberals’ broken 1973 election promise to reform it.
Glen, Glen, Glen: resurrecting Bronwyn Bishop is a sign of weakness, not strength!
After all her bleating about the unfairness of the vote counting process, I can’t wait for Fran to start praising the integrity of the AEC, and of course she’ll no doubt brand Rob Mitchell a sore loser as well! What a bitch!
Marky marky,
You ask all the Labor people what do they believe in: do they “believe in a fairer better world or one in which our Labor State Governments are continuing to pander to big business, privatise public utilities ( NSW ), engage in public privatise partnerships, costing taxpayers millions more than traditional means of financing and in the process helping the financial big wigs who own the assets”? I believe in a fairer world, but that does not mean I agree with everything you say.
You are a member of the Labor Party, I believe, so I suggest you put some energy into pushing your views inside the party.
CW
Well firstly it would have to be for all people and not means tested to allow for greater equality as everybody is finding it hard to get a house even the moderately wealthy. But i suppose you would have to cap the amount. The logistics would be difficult, you’d have to sort something out with the banks which would be hard.
Secondly why not also refuse to fund State infrastructure projects unless they agree to consistently make appropriate land releases as well as reduce stamp duty and land taxes sufficiently so that the price of owning your own home would decrease. That would be a good idea.
Thirdly are we talking a future fund deal, ie locked box and the can be added to with future surplus’s???
Fourthly it would be politically damaging to Rudd breaking his LAW tax cuts, but he could do it atm considering the Libs are in a complete mess atm.
Personally i liked Howie’s plan better but i am biased. Nevertheless i think there is more we can do other than $$ giveaways to make housing more affordable. I think the States have a lot to answer for IMHO.
Marcus, whether it’s worth taking the McEwen (note spelling!) result to court requires local knowledge I don’t have. There would have to be very good grounds or it would just look petulant. I think Labor would win a by-election now, but a court case could take many months, and history says incumbent governments rarely win by-elections.
Marky do you know what really brought down Latham? His failed promise to cut the crudity.
Latham lost his cool and got sucked in to a “bate” from Downer. Latham called Downer a pathetic disgusting fraud and repeated it at the top of his voice in parliament. It was shown all over the news and the liberals had a field day claiming that Latham was showing his true colours.
A few days later, after taking such a hit for the fist time, Latham promised to “bring troops home by Xmas’. It completely exposed his loose cannon disposition. That was the end of Latham from that moment. IMHO, Latham was no statesman, but more of a thug!
Chris Curtis, agree, do so, but you see i get people like you and Steve, and recently Paul K and Adam all believing that Labor is doing a great job. For whom is the question.
And with a party stacked full a factional hacks, in unions, on conference floors, policy committees, branches who rarely report the truth, that includes branch committees with the secretary usually a factional member from that faction who dominates the branch. Then you have labor people who join community groups to find out what goes on and than either report back or get people to join the party and join a faction to learn the ropes and learn ideals without actually knowing what to believe. Must say the whole process is so disillusioning. Chris when you understand how the whole process works like i do you get depressed about what hope is their for ordinary people and on ways to break down omnipotence of structures which present themselves.
As i mentioned a case in point the forestry union, their power ensures massive subsidies for native forests and an incoherent forestry policy. Chris you are right get involved, but what you need is a group of people to understand where you coming from and i suppose than you become a faction and the process continues. lol.
Centre i thought it was Keating that called Downer a digusting fraud. Agree he was no statesman never said he was. Perhaps also he needed to keep his emotions in check, Taxi Driver etc, but the media went overboard with him, attacking him left right and centre, especially the murdoch press, who hated him because he did not wish to speak to Rupert. Unlike Rudd who makes a special trip to New York to have lunch, don’t tell me you all agree with this. Now we see who runs the country.
Well, Bailey’s had her go – now Mitchell should demand another recount, scrute it to the max, and come up trumps by 10.
Fact is, with votes that that close, a good solid scrutineering effort will always swing it one way or the other.
But meh – who really cares. 83, 84, whatevs.
The Rodent (aka John Who?) is no more. 🙂
At least you knew where Latham stood on issues instead of ‘Rudd speak’, ‘when it comes to’ ect.
Labor would be silly to contest McEwen without good reason.
In six months time (which is how long it would take to go through court) there could be a myriad of reasons why they’d lose, and any loss there would cost them momentum.
I can’t see any reason why (as some have claimed) Bailey’s re-election is necessarily bad news for McEwen’s electors – after all, they’ll have a member on a knife edge and therefore presumably keen, and the Govt may well make promises to try to woo them next time!
Progressive, you’re getting pretty worked up over one seat, aren’t you?
Do you have actual evidence that the Libs did something dodgy there? Or just a view based on your own pre-existing prejudices?
Glen you only say that because you are playing politics, and wish to stir the political pot on Rudd, simply put what do the Liberals believe in? And on saying that what does Labor believe in?
I tell you, its a pleasure to watch the news these days and not see:
– Howard’s halitoxic shiny head opining tediously on every bleeding issue from Iraq to hoons, elbowing his way into state and even council debates in a desperate bid for relevance
-Downer’s ludicrous visage whining mincily about world issues like some old Aunty
– Abbott …speaking…slowly…about…moral… matters….and../ ….or…some….half-assed …..hospital…. policy
Just Brendan Nelson confounding the punters with his hair.
To put it simply marky they both believe in getting elected and doing a good job of running Australia.
Marky, I’m certain the words Latham used were to that effect. Maybe he paligarised?
I believe in a lot of the things you believe in. But you must be professional in restoring the balance. I hope PM Rudd delivers!
Been good communicating with you all, good night.
marky marky,
I don’t believe that Labor is doing a great job, but it has done a much better job than the Liberals did in Victoria and it will do a much better job than the Liberals did federally. The branch which I previously belonged to had an executive with at least four of its five members who did not belong to any faction. I have had a say on Labor Party policy which has made a difference because I have made the effort. Ordinary people will have as much say as they insist upon. I could go on at length about the last point (e.g., the way it is teachers’ own fault their pay and conditions are so bad), but it is a little late, and, unlike people who have holidays to break their routine, I have to get up tomorrow like every other day of the year and go to retirement.
Yes I think it is time for me to put the cue into the rack. I would like to wish all of you a merry xmas and a successful in resolutions new year. See u guys in 08.
543 Lefty E, an elephant stamp and a silver star for that little effort! Love the imagery.
Glen, in response.
Well firstly it would have to be for all people and not means tested to allow for greater equality as everybody is finding it hard to get a house even the moderately wealthy. But i suppose you would have to cap the amount. The logistics would be difficult, you’d have to sort something out with the banks which would be hard.
Me: Cap the amount. Cap it on income. So that the immoderately wealthy are not beneficiaries, at the expense of those who wish to get their first own home.
Glen: Secondly why not also refuse to fund State infrastructure projects unless they agree to consistently make appropriate land releases as well as reduce stamp duty and land taxes sufficiently so that the price of owning your own home would decrease. That would be a good idea.
Me: Reduce stamp duty, yes. Land release, harder. Involves infrastructure spending, and all kinds of logistics, including expansion without thinking of the enviromental consequence. This, though, depends also on the amount no longer being afforded to the States, that is, the small, in return, amount of GST. The money, the revenue, is all in the capacious pockets of the Federal Government, so far.
An equitable redistribution would assist, on the old basis of Commonwealth/State input. This would go a long way to ensuring that the States met their obligations.
And the Feds must enforce. I could tell you of many examples where my State, at least , has failed to honour its percentage commitment to its own share, more usually something like 60/40. Labor State. Not pleased, myself, that the cynicism has affected Labor.
In fact, harking back to Aboriginal issues, I questioned the local HAAC funding program, using the CDEP monies as the State’s contribution to the Federal funding, in a specific instance. Using Commonwealth money to get Commonwealth money. A disgrace and unsustainable. Especially if CDEP was changed. Well, as things come to pass, not in the instance I am talking of, but take, NT.
It is not good enough for the State’s to employ such means, and I think they should honour their obligations first, as opposed to spending foolish money elsewhere, such as the much unneeded pavilion at the Racecourse, Victoria Park. And what is this nonsense over Cheltenham?
You: Thirdly are we talking a future fund deal, ie locked box and the can be added to with future surplus’s???
Me: No, I said a one off offer, in this case. Not a future fund. These things can assist, but should not be forever, review is always necessary.
You:Fourthly it would be politically damaging to Rudd breaking his LAW tax cuts, but he could do it atm considering the Libs are in a complete mess atm.
Me: Disagree with breaking, obviously it would come back to haunt.
You:Personally i liked Howie’s plan better but i am biased. Nevertheless i think there is more we can do other than $$ giveaways to make housing more affordable. I think the States have a lot to answer for IMHO.
Me: Answered, I guess.
Thank you, Glen.