Advertiser poll: 52-48 to Liberal in Boothby

The Advertiser has published a survey of 617 respondents from Boothby which shows Liberal incumbent Andrew Southcott leading Labor’s Nicole Cornes 52-48 on two-party preferred. Southcott’s lead on the primary vote is 41 per cent to 32 per cent, which suggests the “don’t know” component has not been excluded. The poll was conducted on Monday night. A similar poll published on September 26 had the primary vote gap at 44 per cent to 29 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

161 comments on “Advertiser poll: 52-48 to Liberal in Boothby”

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  1. SEIV XI may i remind you we have 30% of the know WORLD reserves of URANIUM!

    But because of your anti-nuclear Labor Govts we don’t know how much more uranium we’ve got in WA or QLD.

    It’s ok to export our uranium to other countries to be used in their nuclear power stations to reduce emissions but somehow its not good enough for us hah.

    Labor’s Climate Change policy is quite simply a bennite solution it is a radical left wing solution to the problem after all Rudd has committed us to targets without assessing the impact to our economy!!!

    A good poll for Southcott and this is SA we’re talking about, i’ve told you radicals this election will be a squeaker and it will IMHO.

  2. I don’t think any one really expected her to win and the Libs would have had to pour a lot of resources into the seat so I think she’s done her job. They should give her another shot in 2010, by then she’ll be a seasoned expert with the media.

  3. Just a carry on from the past thread.

    Increasing the cost of carbon one way or another might eventually make nuclear power competitive.

    The problem for nuclear power is, in that case, renewables will be even more competitive.

    That’s why built into ziggy’s report is a raft of indirect subsidies.

  4. This is a big narrowing from the previous polling and reports of internal polling both sides have either confirmed or not denied.

    I thiink she is still in the game, she is against one of the worst Lib candidates in the country (excluding Tuckey who is in an ultra-safe seat)

  5. So has Labor though paul k they’ve spent up big in SA and in Boothby.

    So few ads on TV and most of them are Union ads, we can’t afford ads like them because we don’t have the Unions bosses handing out millions to our party unlike Labor.


  6. Glen, I’ve already taken you thoroughly to task over nuclear vs renewable.

    Now that that is settled, I’ll repeat what I said for GP.

    Promoting nuclear is poor economic management.

  7. Re: the whole candidacy issue

    Reminds you of the America’s Cup debacle between America and New Zealand when the losers kept going to court to argue about the size of the boats, etc instead of racing. If you can’t win fairly, find a lawyer.

  8. Hah, hardly Lefty E we get considerable money from the top end of town, trouble is so do you but we don’t have trade unions giving us multi million dollar donations like Rudd has enjoyed from the Union bosses.

    Paul k might i remind you Rudd supports our uranium policy.

  9. Backdown barney true to form.

    “NATIONALS senator Barnaby Joyce has backed away from comments that he would not try to block Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd’s planned industrial relations changes if Labor wins power on Saturday.”

    Southcott is on the workplaces committee, astrong supporter of Work Choices.

  10. Cornes to win it on the night. Saw Southcott interviewed the other night. What a low quality candidate.

    Has “time server” written all over him.

  11. Ye of little faith don’t write her off yet. These Advertiser polls, despite the large sample size, are notoriously all over the place. They must get their cadet reports to ring homes during business hours. I’d like to see a demographic break down of the respondents.

  12. Was Joe MacDonald misquoted in the lib ads?

    “Comrades, we need to get excersize for 30 minutes a day, so we will walk down that path over there for 15 minutes then, we’re coming back, we’re coming back!”

    “Comrades, we need to get in our utes and drive away from this orphanage to a toy store, fill our utes with toys and then, we’re coming back, we’re coming back!”

    “Honey I have left the oven on, Kev and I are going to the bottle shop to get a carton and then, we’re coming back, we’re coming back!”

  13. [Glen Says: SEIV XI may I remind you we have 30% of the know WORLD reserves of URANIUM!]

    But we don’t need it Glen, its a risk we don’t have to take, and with a bit of entrepreneurial get up and go in the energy sector we’d see a clean green horizon that would be profitable to business. So why are we stuck in debate about old and potentially life threatening tech? Is it because you and your masters are owned by people without conscience? You are on the wrong side of energy debate Glen.

  14. Just before you all get too depressed about Boothby. Might I remind you that the MoE of a 617 poll is about 3.95%, even assuming the house effect is not somwhat substantial … it could quite easily be at 50-50.

  15. [ Paul k might i remind you Rudd supports our uranium policy. ]


    Doesn’t mean I have to and doesn’t mean he can’t be persuaded to change. Unlike Howard our soon to be new PM Rudd still listens to the people.

  16. No 27

    How pompously arrogant SIEV IV. You can’t accept nuclear because you keep referring to hysterical safety issues. We don’t live in the 1980s anymore.

  17. [Actually, Glen, a number of unions have been giving money to the Greens instead this time.]

    And Joe MacDonald & Kevin Reynolds(and Shelley) have resigned from the ALP, as well as Dean Migell.

  18. [Paul k might i remind you Rudd supports our uranium policy.]

    No, Rudd opposes selling uranium to countries that aren’t signatories to the nuclear non proliferation treaty.

    Unlike you, Rudd thinks the more nuclear weapons their are in the world, the less safe we all are.

  19. Gee, William.

    I had typed a considered response about interest rates and caps, to a question on the previous thread, ‘A Classic from the Vaults’

    As at, ‘SEIV XI 1298

    [1287 Crikey Whitey Says: It is rare to hear any reference to that cap. Often wondered what happened to it.]

    Confession of ignorance, but I’d never heard of that cap till the 7.30 report tonight, is it too technical to be an electoral issue’?

    Submitted. Closed thread. My post, lost.

    And it is a very interesting moment in time. Interest rate and home ownership wise.


    SEIV, I will retype and try again when your name comes up. Diogenes’ parents will most likely know the scenario, too.

  20. This looks like a modest 3% or so swing. This is not consistent with other polls and the samples size is not quite what it needs to be. Hard to divine anything from this. I sure wish Nicole wins – she’s giving it a good shake.

  21. Boothby seat
    2:1 split to Labor (according to usual projections I thought) of “others” prefs drags it to 50/50 by my calcs. Please explain (said in a non-whiney voice). Down but not out if that’s the right read?

  22. I don’t know about ’tiser polls but I asume from what you say M. Clarence that they are sh%t. Thus, despair is not an option. She’ll win.

  23. # 31 Generic Person Says: November 21st, 2007 at 1:23 am

    How pompously arrogant SIEV IV. You can’t accept nuclear because you keep referring to hysterical safety issues. We don’t live in the 1980s anymore.

    We still have the storage problem for nuclear waste… just like we did in the 80’s.

  24. Frank, the ideological blinkers prevent certain apparatchiks from seeing reality.

    Happily, they’re the same blinkers that prevent them seeing they are too radical for mainstream Australia.

    They’ll work that out sometime around 8pm Saturday.

  25. Right on Mad Cow look at Ray Kuzwiel’s sight very informative. Demonstrates that exponential technological growth will rapidly bring renewables onto the market within ten years. He is a serious bloody genius. Bit like Jaques Frensco. Conservatism is dead it just does not have the capacity to deal with accelerated change. Dead mens ideas historicism and backward referral will take a dive. Innovation is the name of the game. Another fella to look at is Jeffery Sachs and the Millennium Project. Evolution is going to demand we keep up or ossify like the Libs. Whole new ball game is on the move and Rudd is absolutely right to bring youth into the political debate. Great move. His Rove performance was amusing and demonstrates that young people don’t care if you are a nerd if you offer innovative ideas and present an honest demeanor.

  26. Quietly confident that at least three seats will move to Labor here in Victoria. Forget all the insiders expect Labor will get no seats nonsense, Labor have been sailing under the radar.

  27. Before I go to bed I give you this guarantee. After this Saturday no Liberal Leader will ever again mention Nuclear Power Plants and will dump it as a policy along with all of the other old policies Howard has borrowed from the 1950s. Good Night all.

  28. GP, you are a class clown, what is hysterical (a misogynous term, by the way) about saying there are SAFER options than Newkulah? Consider the main thrust of my previous post: waves, baby, waves, no harm, no potential of nasties, just an energy harnessing issue to be sorted out by the boffins. What the fugg could you have against such a proposal? (Unless of course you are a recalcitrant ideologue?)

  29. 36
    NOT SO MAD MAX Says:
    November 21st, 2007 at 1:25 am
    Boothby seat
    2:1 split to Labor (according to usual projections I thought) of “others” prefs drags it to 50/50 by my calcs. Please explain (said in a non-whiney voice). Down but not out if that’s the right read?

    sure hope so, nsmm

  30. No 45

    I never said renewables were bad. I merely responded to the notion that people must lack a conscience if they support nuclear energy.

  31. 46
    Generic Person Says:
    November 21st, 2007 at 1:30 am
    No 38
    “…We’ve got thousands of hectares of uninhabited desert…”

  32. Rudd is a popularist he does things the polls say but what’s not best for the nation. Howard is a leader who might not always do what’s popular but he’ll do what’s right for Australia.

    Lefty E that’s the trouble if those extremists hold the balance of power Rudd’s IR laws will be worse than workchoices because of the Unions support of the Greens.

    Alf – Till Death do us Part
    “But that’s the trouble we won’t, we’ll never have a proper democracy unless we shoot a few people like ya Russians”

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