Newspoll: 55-45

Sky News reports:

On a two party preferred basis, Labor’s support is up two per cent to 55 and the Coalition’s is down from 47 to 45 per cent. The survey, published in The Australian, shows the Coalition has lost two points in the primary vote down to 40 per cent, while Labor remains steady at 48.

UPDATE: The Australian’s graphic here. John Howard is down 3 per cent on both performance satisfaction and better prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

558 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. Vaile mentions communists (among the tripping over words). In the context of an ‘education revolution’.

    And the tyranny of distance. A nod to G Blainey. Very nice Vaile.

  2. I’m being hysterical maybe but you never know how low the Rat would go to swing it his way….
    How about he makes Keilty set up a phony assassination attempt on him and then blames it on Muslim terrorists, then gets the army involved so he can thump his chest and pretend to be the big Man of steel hero protector of Austrailia? That would bring out in people all the nationalistic redneckand racist traits (80% of the population IMHO) They wouldn’t care if they couldn’t afford to pay the mortgage or if they were paid a pittance and had no job protection, just give ’em someone less fortunate to hate and it’d be all over. The Rat and his stinking majority would have triumphed over all that is good in this poor excuse for a country.

  3. Can’t listen to Vaile without thinking of Annabel Crabb’s comment that when public servants show him documents they have to use big print and lots of pictures! LOL!

  4. at this point, the only thing I worry about is the successful assasination of Mr. Rudd… that’s the only thing that could win it for the Liberals.

  5. You can have a road as long as you put flag poles in schools and put teachers on performance pay.

    I bet Fox likes the idea of putting trucks off the road – great business policy.

  6. Ashley @ 437
    I for one would be furious if all existing HECS debts were halved. Having worked during my degree to pay portions of it as I went, and since then having paid it off as quickly as possible so I can now save towards a house, a cancellation of debt on those who haven’t made that effort would drive me nuts.
    If you’re not going to do something useful with your degree then why should the Government and people who have jobs pay for it?
    But the Labor Party that has abandoned Compulsory Student Unionism isn’t about to lose themselves the election by indulging in this sort of retrograde socialism.
    On this launch, I thought Costello was fine but Vaile is making me yearn for the relatively exciting days of Tim Fischer!

  7. gees, the claquers haven’t even got their timing rights…
    If you can’t organise the party faithful to clap at the right moment, how can you run the country?

  8. John Rocket, in their defence, Vaile is just reading straight from the page in a monotone. I’m not sure where they are really meant to clap…they certainly don’t.

  9. AM Says: “The Nationals are now irrelevant they might as well just merge with the Liberals.”

    The Nationals have been irrelevant for years. The only reason they are still around is because state Libs in Qld are completely useless. May be after 24 Nov they will implode and then disappear completely in a couple of terms. I predict to represent all the rednecks up there some other far right movement like One Nation will be back in Qld to replace the Nats.

  10. Please be upstanding for Howard eh?
    Maybe that’s what he was lecturing the fallen woman in the mall…?

    and Janette’s there too, but not shaking anyone’s hands this time…

  11. I do the sky news polls for a bit of fun, can’t take them too seriously, esp as they never disclose how many have voted. Current poll asks if the govt can come from behind. 58% say yes! Don’t know what planet they are on but go to
    to cast your own vote and bring a bit of reality.

    I watch Sky News regularly. Being in WA, I get national, US, UK and NZ news live, not on 2 hour delay. There is a lot of repetition but at least it is news, not fluff. Some bias during the election but no worse than the rest of the media, inc ABC.

    Since getting Foxtel we hardly watch any free to air, except for things like the cricket on Ch 9, but hey we get the domestic 1 dayers and international cricket on Fox sports

    As for jobs for Howard after the election, there is no need for Rudd to offer him anything. I am sure his business cronies will be lining up to offer him seats on their boards. Personally I would love to see him on the Telstra board so he can help them with their broadband!!!

    Can’t say I have seen much of the ads for any party. Spending too much time on the computer reading blogs such as this.

    Keenan in Stirling will definitely go down for the Libs.

  12. Vera – 505 I don’t think anyone would believe howard if he pulled a stunt like that. A number of us predicted he might do it during APEC but The Chaser gang spoiled any chance for him. If Howard did try on a fake assassination attempt, somebdy from this blog would probably carry out the real thing!!

  13. I’d love Ruddy, in his launch speech,to link”relaxed and comfortable” to Keating’s image of Costello swinging in a hammock to explain rate rises .Get rid of the myth of his good management

  14. Nobody can keep up with the Liberals or follow them, the keep changing their election message trying to be everything to everyone, people are really confused.

  15. We want back the Universities that we used to have!
    Not much appluse for integrating Aboriginals – thats Liberals for you? Duplicitous one day – racist the next.

  16. [I note “Go For Growth” is back, front and centre.]

    Yep, but it’s on the lecturn not on the background, so could be easily cropped out for later posting clips. Brilliance Brian L!

  17. Howard is a spent force, his speech is confusing, he stands for everything, but really stands for nothing, he is weak in character and lacks morals, he really does have the nature of the devil.

  18. Which reminds me, how is your freedom fight going Bushfire Bill?
    Yes I have had problems getting the site up today. You have to keep trying.
    John Howard must be in a total panic by now. Imagine if he was too grumpy in the mornings to have breakfast with Janette before, how grumpy he would be these mornings. It’s the last days now. Better enjoy the view of the Opera House while you still have it.
    Wouldn’t it be gracious of Kevin Rudd to make John Howard our ambassador to Washington?
    John would then be able to sit down with George W and have afternoon teas and they could commiserate with each other.
    Unlikely scenario somehow.

  19. Jeebus! Check the gobsmackingly shameless me-tooism from Howard on Rudd’s home saver accounts, and education rebates.

    Its a straight steal!

    Guess the “me-too” campaign line is over; along with the ‘go for growth’ slogan.

    Pathetic effort, Rodent. Thats game over.

  20. “what’s the story with this shared equity stuff and capital gains tax?”

    Put your investment property in your kid’s name, and you don’t pay capital gains tax. They don’t even have to live in it.

  21. Does the recent trend to use mobile telephones exclusively for most telephone communication impact on the accuracy of opinion polls? For example, I use my landline only for fax transmission and to call internationally (until the last usually more mature relatives start using Skype). I don’t answer land line calls as I know it is either sales calls or not so urgent calls.

    Shouldn’t the pollsters systematically sample mobile telephone numbers as well as landlines? If they do, how do they resolve the interaction of the age of respondent and the use of mobile telephone? Who has time to hang around a telephone line and answer opnion polls?

  22. so, parents use equity in their home when a kid buys first home (and the kid still qualifies for 1st h/owner’s grant?!), the parents are basically “silent partners” and then if/when the home is sold, the parents do not pay capital gains tax on their proportion??
    jesus h christ, that’s disgusting. rattus, you are a disgusting and desperate plague-carrying creature.

  23. If the pollsters were having serious problems with the increasing number of people who don’t have landlines, you would have expected this to have shown up in the most recent NSW and Victorian state elections, but there doesn’t appear to be much evidence of this – my recollection is that the major pollsters weren’t too far away.

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