Newspoll: 55-45

Sky News reports:

On a two party preferred basis, Labor’s support is up two per cent to 55 and the Coalition’s is down from 47 to 45 per cent. The survey, published in The Australian, shows the Coalition has lost two points in the primary vote down to 40 per cent, while Labor remains steady at 48.

UPDATE: The Australian’s graphic here. John Howard is down 3 per cent on both performance satisfaction and better prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

558 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. Well that’s it. They are cooked. All four polls now show movement to Labor. They cannot turn this around in 12 days. Now it’s just a question of whether this will be a defeat or a rout.

  2. What a surprise – the same poll result as we’ve got since January. Nothing has changed and no one is listening. We have long been past the stage where the government needs a miracle to survive – Howard npw needs something approaching divine intervention! This election is entirely Labor’s to lose at this point (though in 2004, Latham couldn’t have been said to have lost the campaign until week 6, and of course, Latham Labor was enver so far ahead as the Rudd version). Given the polished way Rudd & co have carried themselves this year, it’s hard to see Labor conceding any sort of own goal, then it’s looking increasingly like the 55-45 we’ve been seeing all year will be the actual election result.

  3. From the previous thread:

    [I actually thought Labor would do better than 55 in this one. No reason for any Labor loss of sleep, though.]

    I think this is just a correction from last week. I thought 53 (which was actually 54 due to rounding and preference distribution) was on the lower side. 55 to me is the magic number, it is where things have been for ages.

    [What will Howard promise tomorrow? My betting is a cut in (or abolition of) petrol excise. Or maybe a cut in the rate of GST. Something he thinks Rudd won’t/can’t copy.]

    The rumour is 3 – 6 months of paid maternity leave.

  4. Exellent – I got a couple of bets on today – including 2 free $100 ones! C’mon Kevin, Maxine, and Peter T in Stirling. Looking at combined 6-1.
    Nice numbers…and so to bed..

  5. This is the anti-narrowing. It is just like the narrowing, only exactly the opposite. I wonder whether they’ll bother having the launch tomorrow. Perhaps they’ll donate the money for it to cancer cures, or AIDS prevention in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Okay, sorry. I wonder how hard it’ll be to fake a smile, a wave, a cheerful grin.

  6. My Dennis Shanahan version in tomorrow’s Australian…

    ‘Howard proves remarkably resilient as he pulls off another masterstroke’

    “When everyone around him is falling over like dominoes, John Howard remains steady on his feet and determined to move forward no matter what. His grand master plan in the interest rate rise week was to make himself the election campaign issue. This focused the media on Howard’s english skills and took the sting out of the interest rate rise which should have seen Labor winning by an additional 2-3% in the TPP Newspoll. The fact that the poll remains steady is down to the genius of the PM. Labor has now failed to make the necesary gains to prevent a win from behind by the Grandmaster of them all. Labor have fallen into Howard’s come from behind trap and are now down for the count.”

    From the Government Gazette Information Spinster.

  7. [tongue in cheek]Forget about Newspoll. Kevin Rudd is going to Rove next week. He will have to answer the question whom he would turn gay for.

    I can see this will have massive implications for the last week of the campaign.[/tongue in cheek]

  8. As Isabella said the other night these are a set of numbers to tug yourself to sleep by. Hope theres ACN this week to confirm this.

  9. Will make the Liberal policy launch an occasion to remember – More ‘Long Chins’ than the Hong Kong telephone directory is my tip.

  10. There’s a ridiculous amount of turbulence in the Newspoll’s during the campaign.

    Look at the dark purple line bounce up and down.

    It will be even worse once the new poll is added.

    Maybe Rod Cameron is right and that Nielsen and Galaxy are what we should go by. All the polls get their end of term report card on November 24 I guess.

  11. Oh, the humanity! Shibboleths of media hacks exploding into flames and crashing to the ground!

    Oh well, just another 2 weeks and they’ll be carrying out the Rodent’s corpse and I hope they get the Pied Piper to call up all his little rodent friends out there in MSM land.

    Oh, what a sight!

  12. PJK for President… hopefully you’re still around!
    I signed up for the free $100 bet thingo a couple of hours ago, but it hasn’t been credited to my account – which is still sitting on $30… how long did it take you to get the credit?

  13. It could possibly get better as undecideds in the last week [26% of voters in 2004] broke 59/41 to Latham’s Labor and according to Anthony Green undecideds tend to break 2/1 in favour of the trend. This should mean Howard has a lot more work to do than appears.

  14. John Rocket, you need to find the “Free Bet” link and then place it wherever you like.

    May I suggest a very tasty Rodent at a zillion to one? LOL

  15. If the ALP can maintain this sort of TPP vote throughout the assault next week then in the words of the prophets-“The writing is on the wall!!”
    IMHO this election truly is about John Howard,nothing more and nothing else.All of the Tory Vermin and their fellow travellers have never understood this point.
    Australia wants to be rid of this man and his era.The more he struggles against his fate the worse it is going to get for him.

  16. Anything that chimp Howard does now will be seen to smack of desperation. 6 months paid maternity leave? gee his mates in the BCA and the Employer groups will love that one as will his beloved small business base-no doubt he will exempt them from it.

  17. [PRIME Minister John Howard will offer tax rebates worth billions of dollars to help parents pay for their children’s education in an attempt to recapture crucial political momentum today.]

    Um, hasn’t Howard been trying to capture “political momentum” all year?

  18. asanque @ 32

    What a tactic, target the one area Labor hasn’t announced a big policy on yet, leaving yourself open to a counter-punch at the Labor launch two days later.

  19. I just plunged some decent moolah on about 16 seats I think are ripe for the picking on the pendulum. The individual seat odds are just too good to ignore knowing that Labor has a rock solid 47-48 primary.

    I drove from Melbourne to Lakes Entrance on Saturday and back again on Sunday.

    did not notice any signs at all through the electorate of La Trobe on the way to Lakes, in the seat of Gippsland noticed and about half half (McGauran will never lose Gippsland).

    On the drive back today noticed the same story wrt Gippsland.

    But driving through La Trobe there were ‘Your Rights at Work’ posters up literally every few hundred metres along the highway just before Traralgon. There must have been at least 40 of them, no Liberal or Labor signs at all. In my mind this was a great demonstration of the precise targetting that is happening at the moment.

    I put some money on La Trobe to turn Labor tonight as a result.

  20. [Education rebates from Howard for campaign launch]

    So, some more me-tooism from Johnny. Doubt we’ll hear it reported that way by the MSM of course…

  21. Oh well, i can go to bed now – i was wondering why the betting markets, especially betfair, had moved so much today.

    The $4 there didn’t last long – and there wasn’t much available at that price in the first price but the fact it got there is a good sign.

    Sweet dreams all 🙂

  22. [What a tactic, target the one area Labor hasn’t announced a big policy on yet, leaving yourself open to a counter-punch at the Labor launch two days later.]

    Yeah, but Howard totally wedged Labor on Orang-utans. He has the ENTIRE Orang-utan vote locked up now. That of course includes Ron Boswell.


  23. Howard is now going to give us all tax breaks for private school fees. Great. That should do it.

    F@#k he’s one stupid rat. That’s going to fix everything. Not.

  24. Funny that this is mentioned so late at night on Sky. If the poll was favourable to Howard, it would have been leaked much earlier. This explains the betting plunge on betfair, blowing the Libs out to almost $4.00.

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