Galaxy: 54-46

Today’s News Limited tabloids bring a nationwide Galaxy poll conducted from Friday through to Sunday, showing Labor’s leading increasing to 54-46 from 53-47 a fortnight ago. Sample was 1010; full details available here.

Nov 4
54 46 45 42
Oct 19
53 47 45 43
Sept 24
56 44 46 40
Aug 27
57 43 47 39
July 30
54 46 44 41
July 2
55 45 46 41
June 4
53 47 44 42
May 14
57 43 49 39
April 23
58 42 49 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

662 comments on “Galaxy: 54-46”

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  1. Grog, no time at all – comments go live immediately. Unfortunately, you are given a contrary impression when you post a comment, another on the long list of things that will need to be addressed.

  2. Excellent (I actually donated some money yesterday on paypal – but I’ll call it money spent for services already rendered)

  3. One other problem with the Crikey blog is that anyone has has a previous trial or former subscription (me), are not able to register in order to participate on the blog.

  4. I see others have already raised this issue. I did try to register but it failed, so I guess the only way around it is to get a new email address. Or is it possible to switch off registration?

  5. William,

    DO not know if someone has already commented on this or not, so apologies if so.

    I registered there late this afternoon and only got a chance for about a 5 minute look see before I needed to turn the computer over the kids for their turn [time share arrangements in this house ;-)].

    My main complaint is that the comments read bottom up, forcing you to go all the way to the bottom and scan up; complete and utter opposite from here. Can that be fixed to read top/bottom the way that we are all used to?

  6. Did you notice that the Herald Sun reported the coalitions primary drop of 1% as unchanged and the 2% gap increase in 2 party preferred as unchanged also?

  7. ruawake,

    i wasn’t worried. i was reporting not panicing. 🙂

    One of the many schadenfreude moments i look forward to on the 24th is to see Bib Bob lose.

  8. ok I sent the same message 4 times as I refreshed the page looking to update it – not realising that it must have updated. Interesting refreshing the page reposts the data.

  9. Thank you for your reply (at 600) William.

    I have only the upmost respect for you and what you do and that’s why I am concerned that your post is going to Crikey – Crikey is not free to air – lots of bloggers will lbe blocked and thats the shame of it.
    Nonetheless, good luck and I appreciate the amazing work that you’ve done.

  10. CB, if by “not free to air” you mean that every post will be moderated, that is not the case. Provided this issue with one trial a year can be sorted, I don’t see any reason why things can’t continue much as they have here.

  11. Just about there – all that it requires is to be as free functioning as this one which I gather is already being dealt with. The word limit and the submiting/refreshing page trap a few have discovered.

    It is all fine by me.

  12. Completely agree about the fantastic work William. Im amazed you could undertake this with the other demands on your time (Ive also done a PhD) and the ever present threat of legal action. BTW, has a blogger or blogsite ever been successfully sued in Australia?

  13. William I’m not talking about censorship, I’m talking about getting online with Crikey – that’s all

    Getting online is a hassle in itself and if you”ve already had a free trial at Crikey you can’t get on again unless you want to fiddle the books (email acc)

    William I think your postings are the best blogs I’ve read – don’t let them be inaccessible

  14. Mayoferal, thankyou for the reply, yes the person you mentioned is the one i clashed with, i too have good friends in state parliament and the media who would have been only too pleased to sort things out for me and demand an apology– but what the heck, i didnt want one from him, it would have been an insult, besides his big mouth got him into some legal trouble not long afterwards, i believe he has been told not to drink on air nowadays.
    he is very vocal in his support for Howard along with his blue rinse set of rusted on listeners and rubbishes anyone who has a diferent opinion, i never bother to turn my radio on until midnight any more, i love this site and i cant thank William enough for making it possible, i blog very little {i havnt much confidence unless i’m fired up} but i read every entry here, along with Crickey it’s my favourite destination.
    Michael OConnell the commissioner for victims rights and Mike Rann wrote to Howard early this year about the abuse, by sections of the media, of the law that you cant sue on the behalf of a dead person, they never even recieved a reply, i’m hoping that Rudd has a more humanitarian side and victims Australia wide will be treated better, i was one of the people who set up the first victim support service in the world here in Adelaide, i was honoured when Chris Summner took a paper i wrote to a UN seminar on victimology some years ago, i think it was my proudest moment.

  15. two things

    howard claims he cant control prices
    ever heard of the Prices Justification Tribunal -quaint body that MADE business justify its price increases (maybe thats why they called it that) scrapped by The Rodentcy

    Whatever happened to the “intervention”
    basically we are the stage where we allow the Libs to reinstall apartheid in the top end-must be all those nuclear waste dumps being commissioned in the NT

  16. In their desire to be a MSM staple with their own brand of me-tooism, Crikey are limiting comment to those rich enough to splurge on a Crikey subscription or those tech-savvy enough to get around the free subscription thing. Either way, they have limited the openess of this blog and skewing the content. Possum Comitatus continuned to blog to both Crikey and his own site. William, perhaps that is the way to go. If the rabble at the gate of the citadel sign up for two free weeks @ Crikey, they will be comfortably out of the way for the last week of the election.

  17. William, much as it might pain you, there is such a thing as too much change, and as others have indicated, we’d rather support you to continue this site. And put our money where our moutn is.

  18. Sorry, mouth. I’ve no idea where our moutn is. Perhaps someone in the LNP knows. God knows, only they know how to rule, run the economy (badly), blah, blah, blah.

  19. #560 Diogenes

    [Re Shanahan, I’m still really pissed with the way be manipulated the Newspoll figures on Saturday. Showing the predicted minus MOE in Lib favour as best case and pretending that the predicted result was the Libs worst case was truly disgraceful.]

    I’m a bit late picking up these posts with work commitments … so excuse me if this has already been answered. I heard Antony Green and Galaxy’s Peter Briggs on The World Today on the car radio. Antony very politely took up your concern. He said nobody, at least nobody he knew, tried to interpret polls using worst-case scenarios maximised through Margin of Error. On Antony’s own reading of the marginal seats mentioned, related to the known swings, Labor would win 88 seats in the election. Briggs was also asked for comment. He said he could only agree with Antony’s interpretation.

    Briggs also said he believed Howard was gone, even though the polling lead to McKew was not huge. He based that on the fact that three polls had now been held over a large space of time, and all had come up with identical results.

  20. sooo… William, in an hour will there be a Newspoll thread here as well as over at CrikeyBludger? I’ve got both open with those little Explorer tabs… but it’s weirdness…

  21. Might I suggest a bifurcating and suppurating in the LNP from here on out? Diogenes, despite you looking down your nose at social workers, do you have a comment?

  22. Newspoll just released – Primary Vote Coalition 42% (unchanged) ALP 47% (down 1%). 2PP Coalition 47% (up 1%) ALP 53% (down 1%).

    Preferred PM – Howard 43% (up 2%) Rudd 47% (down 1%)

  23. Hey Judy

    Here’s another bit of West Adelaide trivia for you going way back to 1953 at the Football Carnival held at Adelaide then. (My good old Dad took my brothers and self along to three of the games. And I had an amazing memory for trivia then, now alas gone.)

    Among the Football Budget souvenirs I can remember was a photo of 7 members of the famous West Adelaide 1947 premiership team participating at the Carnival. But only 3 (Brian Faeshe, Colin Brown and Jack Lynch) were current West Adelaide players. What about the others?

    Well in South Australian uniforms were Fos Williams (by then Port Adelaide) and Don Taylor (by then Glenelg).

    In the West Australian uniform was Reg Zeuner.

    In the Victorian uniform was the great Bernie Smith, by then with Geelong, and the 1951 Brownlow Medallist.

    I bet you didn’t know that, but some of your family would have.

  24. 632 Don Wigan

    Must say I’m very pleased to hear Antony exposed shameahans shenanigans. I’ve listened to Antony for many years and must say I still don’t know if he leans left or right, nor do I care. Antony is a very respected and publicly unbiased analyst unlike shameahan who has no credibility or respect whatever.

    Don, your news on Briggs, a big supporter of the PM, believing Howard is gone has made my night. 🙂

  25. Trevor, #636,
    Is this worrying?
    I have a nagging feeling that the libs will pull something out of the bag.
    My wife is confident of a ALP victory, but Iam not so sure. Call me cynical if you will.

  26. Bloody Agenda. A whole bunch of Howard huggers on there gushing over him. amazing. At least Imre had it right. He still believes Howard is gone.

  27. Whilst I’m not overly confident I’m sure that if the ALP primary vote stays where it is, I can’t see how the ALP can possibly lose. The closer the polls are now I reckon the more likely people will gravitate towards ALP closer to election date to ensure that Howard is not returned.

  28. Trevor this poll shows no real movement. One percent here and there in polling is not significant. Really nothing has changed from the last newspoll.

  29. But aren’t we ASSUMING that the primaries will not change? I must admit , that I have no great faith in the average voter, they are far too blase to look at the real issues, and only interested as to what will come into their hip pocket

  30. Fancy even talking about the narrowing with a poll like this. Imre had it right when said that these polls have done this over the year. It wouldn’t surprise to see Labor’s vote go up.

  31. Will, I understand how you feel but if we get Howard returned again, I’ll be very disappointed for this country and the word “fair” can be removed from all dictionaries. It will show how we have become a greedy society with no compassion for our fellow countrymen.

    I have faith that enough will do what is required on 24/11/2007.

  32. Don i knew Fos very well, Colin Brown was my hero but best of all as a real littley i adored Clarry “bang bang” Cannon, Jimmy Wright was special too, they were heady innocent days, one of my daughters goes to the clubrooms every saturday night, she wouldnt miss it.
    William if you need a donation just yell, theres enough of us here to keep you going, after all this is our home from home.

  33. Labor’s advertising has just begun and the interest rate hike looks like taking place. This poll is still a shocker for the Libs at this stage of the campaign.

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