Senate tickets revealed

Group voting tickets for the Senate have now been unveiled by the Australian Electoral Commission. I’ll get stuck into these after I’ve finished a few errands.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

341 comments on “Senate tickets revealed”

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  1. melbcity – the reason ff only attract 2-3% is because despite their ‘catchy name’, they have a really bad reputation around the nation – they just keep making it worse for themselves. I bet they will only get 2-3% this election in vic and sa

  3. Don’t get too excited. If Labor wins the election, and if the Greens or Labor win the second ACT Senate seat, the numbers would until 30 June would be 39-37 the Coalition’s way in votes where Fielding supported the Coalition. If Fielding voted with Labor, the numbers would be tied at 38-all. Since a tied vote in the Senate is resolved in the negative, this would still leave the Coalition with a “blocking majority.” So a Rudd government could not pass anything the Coalition opposed for the first six months of next year.

  4. D,

    Your original comment was that it was not worth the five minutes of aggro to fill in the ballot paper because you had a child or two in tow. My point is that it is worth five minutes because democracy is something precious that hundreds of millions of people have had to live without. I am not trying to overstate my case because you do vote and you do appreciate that we live in a democracy. Let me put it another way: if I said to someone who lived in China or Cuba or Saudi Arabia that they could have democracy but it would take five minutes of their time, I think they would accept the deal with open arms.

  7. Adam’s right.
    The ACT thing would really only become important if the Libs somehow managed to lose the ACT Senate spot but win the election in the HoR.
    Which sounds bizarre, but then again a Lib win in the HoR will be a bizarre outcome in any event, given the last sixty poll results.

  9. The Democrats only lodged one ticket in Qld with ALP ahead of the Coalition.
    The DLP goes straight to Pauline Hanson then to the Coalition, which is stranger than I was expecting.
    I’m last on 6 tickets in Qld (seven if you count split tickets). Anyone beat that? :^)

    d

  10. It took Paul Keating to appreciate Mahler. JWH is now too perplexed to know Irish horses from composers. Ah to have a civilised PM again soon!
    And Kina, blessed are they who read pollbludger at church!

  12. Antony Green November 4th, 2007 at 9:52 pm .. Your later suggestion(9:57) of 3/3 is more likely the case. Can you send a copy of the preference data file. Did you extract/import from the pdfs or did you get an advance copy for the AEC…

    I do not support the idea of Climate Change or WWW dowling anywhere near as well as you suggest. So the 9.52 scenario is most likely a better bet.

    I do not support the notion that below the line votes will come into play. They tend to travel in the same direction as the above the line tickets only difference that people seem to miss is that they add to the primary vote value. In Vitoria western metro it was the optional preferential vote and mistakes in the count that caused the upset. It was always a close call for the ALP to secure 4 out of 5 seats. a big ask. 3 out of 6 is not.

    What is your outcome assessment for the ACT?

  13. Adam (178). Hanson predictably preferences the Coalition ahead of ALP. (Curious she managed to put Climate Change Coalition about third on her prefs, and Greens stone last).

    I’d be very surprised if she remains in the count with the big boys this time (eg LNP 3, Green 1). She barely scraped 4% last time, and the only thing she has going for her this time is her name in lights (nonetheless she had a box/group last time). Her prefs will flow. If so, what matters is how many bored Tory voters, or anti-Howard conservatives go with Rudd in the Reps, but tick ‘Pauline’ in the Senate.

  18. I feel stupid asking this, but does anyone think waxgate will have any impact? The News Ltd. websites have been running very hard on this and when it appeared on Jay Leno in the US, it was picked up by the major TV networks. Tonight it got a very thorough run on Rove.

    It seems ridiculous, but could it hurt Rudd in the younger demographic, in much the same way that Beazley’s mass hindered him with some people?

    In any case I am glad it has been done to death with a few weeks left. It’s not the last image you want in voters’ minds before going to the polls.

  19. Please stick to the subject of the elections and in this case the Senate vote.
    I don’t think jocular remarks about tedious old farts like Flint,or witty banter between various people about their holidays in Greece, are of much interest to we more serious readers
    There must be some Yahoo youth site where such trivia can be indulged!…but please not here!

  20. Kina @ 261,
    It shows Tony Abbott on 42% 2PP in Warringah!
    Which probably puts it in the category of interesting rubbish, but nevertheless it would be fascinating to find out more.

  21. These Morgan figures look the same as the breakdowns by electorate posted a week ago.

    They are old figures, and with only 150 – 200 per seat.

  22. What a relief!!! I was thinking I’d have to fill in the entire ballot paper to ensure my vote didn’t go to a right-wing nut. Now I can just vote 1 Greens, and know that their surplus vote, in the unlikely event they do not get elected, will go to the ALP.

  24. Can anyone explain the ordering of the candidate from left to right in the scroll box?

    It appears to be an attempt at a left-right spectrum. Check Cunningham for a good example:

    Socialist Alliance – Green – ALP – LIB – Christian Democratic Party

    In the ones I checked the ALP is always to the left of the Liberals, but the minor parties someitmes jump around (Dems in particular).

  25. Qld will be very interesting, I reckon Boswell is gone though.

    Should be 3 labor 2 lib and the last up for grabs between green, dems and Pauline.

    Thought a while ago that Bartlett may be a chance, but not so sure now and more inclined to greens getting the last spot.

  26. Jen I am a ALP member Burt I fail to see what your getting at. Calculating the senate outcome is not about policy it is about numbers and brand name support. I think the Green vote has peaked and they will once again become the wasted quota in Victoria and other states too.

    They had a good candidate in 2004 and they just did not pull across the line. The ALP preference deal as with all parties is not about policies it is about maximising the numbers and outcome. The preference deal in 2004 was a good one and would have paid dividends. The greens expect to always collect others preference surplus. Well they have to increase their support base to above 9% this is a big ask and if as Antony predicts Climate Change Coalition do well then I guess it depends on their preference flow as to if they will feed the Green as or take away from them.

    re poll sample of all parties it is no more difficult the the current polling. Yes the margin of error comes into pay more so at the bottom end but it is no more work then existing polls. Just need to report the breakdown.

    Hand out 400-800 ballot papers in each state and calculate the results. If it is close increase the sample..

  27. Can’t see Pauline getting there this time. The conservatives who are anti-Howard will be voting for Rudd I think (especially as Barnaby’s name isn’t on the ballot).

  28. One of your contributers (Chris Curtis) presents himself as an expert. Like all commentators he grossly underestimated the Democrats in the Albert Park by-election and grossly overestimated Family First and his beloved DLP. Clearly he has not learned because he’s at it again !

  30. Roy Morgan’s ‘My Electorate’ page has Corrangamite at 67% and Wannon at 52% 2pp for Labour? WTF? If only! Is anybody out there prepared to take this seriously and run a defence of Morgan, cause I’d really like to believe these numbers..

  31. MelbCity ALP members are supposed to support democracy, not Putin’s neo-Stalinism and Russian imperialism. Maybe you belong to a Putinite sub-faction of the SL I haven’t heard of.

  33. William. Is it possible to display the last page or currnet page on return from posting as opposed to having the first page displayed and needing to select the last page each time. This must be adding unnecessary traffic…

  34. Ah, Paul, nice to see you. Since Dembo couldn’t explain earlier why the Democrats, having campaigned all year to “restore the balance” in the Senate, are now giving half their preferences to the Coalition, thus helping them keep control of the Senate, perhaps you can do so.

  37. 228
    Adam Says:
    November 4th, 2007 at 10:21 pm
    I thought Mahler was German, not Irish. Maybe he’s thinking of O’Mara.

    Czech, actually. I would have said Austrian. If he’d died after 1938, it would all be the same!
    but he’s more likely thinking of Mahoney, or Maloney

  42. MelbCity, I typed them into my database and I’m not giving you or anyone alse a copy. If the AEC are now offering an Excel version of the tickets, it must be because Channel Nine sent a rocket up the AEC on Friday for suddenly announcing the tickets would not be available in XML format next week.

    And as for the ACT, only the Liberty and Democracy Party give the Liberals any preferences, and that is after the second Labor candidate, which means if the second Labor candidate outpolls the Greens, the Liberals don’t get LDP preferences either. However, if the Greens were excluded, half the Democrat ticket would flow to the Liberals. Either way, there are not many preferences floating around that will be of assistance to the Liberals in the ACT. If the Libs are under 31%, they’re in trouble.

  43. Dyno, of course they do, a better than even chance I would say. Even if the Libs lose the ACT seat, and if Xenophon takes a Liberal seat in SA and is counted as anti-Coalition (and I don’t know that he is, on all issues), Labor and/or Greens still have to win another seat somewhere off the Coalition. This will not be easy.

  44. William, you would save a LOT of bandwidth, if you always entered a given thread on the final page. Every time you enter a thread, and every time you post a message, you go back to the first page, and have to go to the last page again.

    It would probably cut down the bandwidth by at least 25%. Perhaps higher.

  45. Everyone.. am I right in thinking that the coalition need to lose 2 senate spots in order for Labor/Green to have control in the senate?

    Current numbers are: (is this correct)

    coalition + ff = 39
    Labor + the rest = 37

    Im counting the ACT lib->green as the most likely at this stage.
    Still not sure what else to hope for.

  47. Adam you Putin phobia is oustanding. If I had to choose between Putin and George Bush I would vote Putin. He really has 70% support of the Russian people.

    I do not think you can or should make the comparison to Stalin or any past Soviet regime. It demonstrates that you are out of touch with politics in the former Soviet space.

    Politics in CIS countries is not based on ideology or socio economics as we have in the west. But there are thins we can learn from politics in this region.

    Putin has really turned around Russia and has paid off its debt. Unlike the USA and Australia. I would not support your assertion that Russia today is on the far left of the political spectrum far from it.

    I suggest you tune into http://russiatoday.ru and you will begin to learn more about what is really going on as opposed to espousing such cliques nd false ill-informed sterotypes.

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