Senate tickets revealed

Group voting tickets for the Senate have now been unveiled by the Australian Electoral Commission. I’ll get stuck into these after I’ve finished a few errands.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

341 comments on “Senate tickets revealed”

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  1. As in the old days, the DLP has done the ALP few favours, except in Tasmania where it has preferenced the third Labor candidate, Catryna Bilyk, one place ahead of the third Liberal.

  3. Dembo, since you have waxed so f*cking self-righteous all year, perhaps you can tell us why your party is giving half its preferences to Howard, hmmm? I expect you will poll so few votes it probably won’t matter, but in a very close Senate race it might make the difference between the Coalition keeping control of the Senate or losing it. All Senator Pruneface’s pious cr*p about “Bring Back Balance” is now exposed as so much hot air, is it not?. This will be Democrats’ last federal election, and frankly, good riddance to two-faced hypocritical double-dealing rubbish.

    PS At least David Flint doesn’t split his tickets. Give me an honest Tory any day.

  4. And again.

    William

    I have a number of the missing threads, most in full I think, two of which are partial only, which I have pasted into word documents.

    Any good to you?

    It happened that I had left them open, which my brain (?) had not registered till now.

    Regards

  6. I agree in principle that split tickets suck. What btw with the Socialist Equality Party in Victoria splitting their ticket three ways – one prefencing the Coalition! Anyway, it won’t help Humphries in the ACT as the Dems have preferenced the Greens first in both tickets.

  7. ruawake – I lived in Canberra for many years myself. I intended irony – as in ‘how could Howard and Hyacinth depart the dear North Shore for that uncivilised bush capital?’ And most other PMs have managed to do it …

    And I share Adam’s views about the Democrats, which were, after all, born because Chippy didn’t have any numbers any more in the Libs, as I recall (although I was a bit young at the time).

  8. The Dems are preferencing Labor above the Libs in a couple of states ( I think NSW and Qld).

    The fishers and shooters act as conduits for the conservative parties, we know. But it’s a bit disturbing to see groups with ‘conservation’ and ‘socialist’ in their names preferencing the Libs. If you’re not sure what’s in it, don’t buy it!

  10. Labor Voter its better than having to say like Keating ‘this is the recession Australia had to have’ sorry but i thought your comment needed a retort.

    I think the Libs should hold on in the ACT despite preferences i mean it would have to be a landslide result for the Libs to fall 10% of the vote from the last election.

  14. ruawake, In his first year as PM Howard got massively stuck into a couple of Victorian kids, aged 16 and 18, who lived at home with Mum, and refused offers to work for a pittance, with accommodation in converted shipping containers, on one of the Queensland resort islands. He said kids should move wherever they had to, to get work, and their family situation was irrelevant. John Laws vilified these kids, and they were splashed all over the front of the tabloids as dole bludgers. At the same time, Howard ‘needed’ to be in Sydney, at your and my expense, to allow his children to live with Mummy and Daddy while they went through Uni! His hypocrisy knows no bounds.

    cheers,

    Alan H

  15. Adam, are you asking me to apologise? I’m not a Dem – an old unreconstructed Marxist thankyou very much. I agree with you that split prefencing is wrong. I wasn’t trying to justify it.

  16. Adam, I think you look very handsome in that photo. In fact, I think you should take Prof Flint on holiday with you next time you go to Greece. Perhaps drop him off somewhere, or drop something on him. Either way …

  17. Howard is short of cockatoos in the top paddock ranting about inflation being unavoidable. As treasurer he had one of Australia’s worst inflation records, and then, as now, he didn’t want to accept responsibility and tried to blame everyone but himself. If it ‘unavoidable’ then it won’t matter if we elect a Rudd government.

  19. Julie you may be happy with CCC preferencing Labor ahead of the Libs but I’m stunned that they preferenced One Nation and Pauline ahead of Labor. I’ve just dashed an email to Phillip Adams and Patrice Newell.

  25. Since Prof Flint left the Press Council at the start of Howard’s reign, look at how standards in the media have declined. Perhaps he should be reinstated? Or perhaps Adam should chuck an urn at him after shouldering him off a ruin, just to be sure.

  28. I am not saying its not possible but unless its a Ruddslide footscray i doubt it will occur. While it is no guarantee and it is just my opinion i can’t see Gary’s crashing to 24% or less as some polls have predicted. I know the ACT is Red territory but the tories have sufficient votes to at least have some representation there.

  29. I have had a look at the Victorian senate preference allocations and made some rough estimates to illustrate the factors affecting the results. I do not really know how the micro-parties will perform.

    Below are the effective preferences from each group (though my eyes did glaze over with all the numbers) and a suggested percentage vote:
    0.2 CCC (includes donkey vote) to AD then ALP then Grn
    0.2 ON to FF
    1.0 AD to Grn
    0.1 WWW to Grn
    0.1 SoL to ALP then Grn
    44.9 – 42.9: 2.0 ALP to Grn
    0.1 SP to ALP then FF
    38.6-28.6: 10 LNP to FF
    0.1 An to Grn
    0.1 SEP to Grn/ALP then LNP/LNP
    3.5 FF to DLP then LNP
    0.1 LDP to FF then LNP
    0.1 CCE to FF then LNP
    2.0 DLP to FF then LNP
    0.2 CDP to DLP then FF then LNP
    0.1 Grp P to Grn
    0.1 CEC to LNP
    0.1 NCP to FF then LNP
    0.1 SA to Grn
    0.1 Grp T to DLP then LNP
    8.0 Grn to ALP/LNP
    0.1 Grp V to Grn
    0.1 CA to Grn

    The ALP would have a surplus of 2.0 after three quotas. The LNP would have a surplus of 10.0 after two quotas.
    Excluding CCC, AD, WW SoL, SP, An, SEP, Grp P, SA, Grp V, CA adds 2.0 to the Greens, bringing them to 10.0.
    Excluding ON, LDP, CCE, NCP adds .5 to FF, bringing it to 4.0.
    Excluding CEC adds .1 to the LNP, bringing them to 10.1.
    Excluding SP adds .1 to FF via ALP; excluding CDP adds .2 to FF via DLP; excluding DLP adds 2.0 to FF – bring FF total to 6.3.
    Excluding Grp T adds .1 to the LNP, bringing them to 10.2
    Distributing the ALP surplus adds 2.0 to the Greens, bringing them to 12.0.

    The state of play is now:
    LNP 10.2
    FF 6.3
    Greens 12.0.
    The LNP wins on FF preferences.

    If the Greens can get 10 per cent instead of 8.0 and the ALP can get 46 instead of c45 per cent, the Greens would probably win.

  30. Interesting that the huntin’ shootin’ fishin’ and campin’ parties are preferencing Ron Boswell – #3 on the Lib/Nat combined ticket in Qld ahead of the Libs.

    Worked for Barnaby – will it work for the Boz?

  34. Thanks Triangulum, and Marktwain: I guess that explains Flint’s fine grasp of the law, especially the bit about actual or perceived bias, during the ‘cash for comments’ inquiry when he was pooh-bah at the bradcasting tribunal (or whatever it’s called now).

  35. It is great to see that Family First have preferenced the pro-drug, pro-abortion, pro-euthanasia, pro-guns, pro-pornography Liberal Democracy Party in third spot in WA. Is Fielding a moron or does he not have any commitment to the values he claims to espouse?

    Also, the Libs have put the LDP very high as well in WA. Nice one!!!

  36. I’m with Flint:

    What has happened to Australia’s media?

    Having abandoned diligent and unbiased reporting, campaigning journalists have become unelected and unaccountable participants in the political process, requisitioning the airwaves of the public broadcasters as well as the columns of once great newspapers.

    With an insatiable appetite fed by a succession of feeding frenzies, the “elite” media unashamedly advance their minority agenda as David Flint, former head of the Australian Broadcasting Authority, identified in his bestselling Twilight of The Elites.

    After a quarter of a century engaged in media regulation, Professor Flint is uniquely placed not only to comment on the present malaise in the Australia media, but to propose solutions.

  37. [Excuse, William.

    Do you mean the email address and is it, to be clear]

    I think he was trying to avoid spam by not typing it out. 😐

  39. Glen – I guess he doesn’t have to get that low to be in trouble – a bit less than 30% might do him in though, if the preference flows are very tight. N’est ce pas?

  40. [It is great to see that Family First have preferenced the pro-drug, pro-abortion, pro-euthanasia, pro-guns, pro-pornography Liberal Democracy Party in third spot in WA. Is Fielding a moron or does he not have any commitment to the values he claims to espouse?]

    He doesn’t have any commitment to his values.

    Just look at how Family First constantly calls the Greens extremists, but according to the Parliamentary Libary, FF and the Greens vote exactly the same 75% of the time, which is second only to the Liberals and Nationals.

    In S.A. Family First directed its Senate preferences first to One Nation, who are a buch of crazies and economic dim wits (2% easy tax anyone?)

    Family First are just opportunists, they have no principles.

  42. Davidoff: does this mean that David Hicks will be retrospectively pardoned for being charged under non-binding rules?

  44. Thanks for the suggestion that I take David Flint to Greece, but I always travel alone. That photo was taken at Mycenae, the very birthplace of European civilisation. Those walls were already 1000 years old when the Parthenon was built. It’s a very evocative place. I had it all to myself since it was raining and all the German tourists ran back to their coach.

  45. Yes Marktwain, I always liked Flint’s ‘elites’ thesis. It explains so clearly how great leaders like Howard and eminent thinkers like Alan Jones struggle to have their ideas accepted, and to find a voice in the Australian polity.

    I guess if the libs form the next Government Flinty would be well placed to become G-G, having shown such sober judgement at the Broadacasting Authority. That would be a just reward for his tireless (self) service.

  46. This explains a lot. Republican voters have almost three times as many nightmares as Democrat voters (International Conference for the Study of Dreams July 2001). I hope the same is true for Liberal voters. The reason is probably that sleep is the only time their conscience is able to slither out of the darkness of their souls!

  48. Good one,Alan H…..not to mention the demeaning sidelining of our GG to such a minor role and JH cloaking himself in presidential granduer.

  50. CL de Footscray, refer to my earlier suggestions as to what to do with Prof Flint while on one’s holidays. I’m sure there are much more imaginative things we could all come up with, wot wot?

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