Newspoll marginals survey

The Australian has published a Newspoll survey from a remarkable sample of “almost 3500 voters”, conducted in “the 18 most marginal Coalition seats in Queensland, NSW, Victoria and South Australia”. Key findings:

• Labor is looking at a collective swing of 9.6 per cent in the Queensland seats of Bonner (0.5 per cent), Moreton (2.8 per cent), Blair (5.7 per cent) and Herbert (6.2 per cent). Other Queensland seats that would fall with a uniform swing of that size include Longman (6.7 per cent), Petrie (7.4 per cent), Flynn (7.7 per cent), Hinkler (8.3 per cent), Bowman (8.9 per cent) and Dickson (8.9 per cent), though a couple of these seats are thought to be in less trouble than Leichhardt (10.3 per cent) and Ryan (10.4 per cent).

• The swing to Labor in the New South Wales marginals Parramatta (0.9 per cent), Wentworth (2.5 per cent), Lindsay (2.9 per cent), Eden-Monaro (3.3 per cent), Bennelong (4.2 per cent) and Dobell (4.8 per cent) is an unexpectedly modest 4.7 per cent. Interestingly, John Howard leads Kevin Rudd as preferred leader in these seats. Dennis Shanahan also reports that despite the Galaxy poll (which will apparently not be published until Sunday, by the Sunday Telegraph), “party sources on both sides” consider the Prime Minister to be “safe” in Bennelong.

• In Victoria, there is a collective swing of 7.3 per cent in Deakin (5.0 per cent), McMillan (5.0 per cent), Corangamite (5.3 per cent) and La Trobe (5.8 per cent). A uniform swing of that size in Victoria would also deliver Labor McEwen (6.4 per cent).

• Labor’s collective swing in the Adelaide marginals Kingston (0.1 per cent), Wakefield (0.7 per cent), Makin (0.9 per cent) and Boothby (5.4 per cent) is 5.8 per cent.

Dennis Shanahan’s take on this is that “the survey suggests the extent of the Coalition’s losses will be between eight seats … and 22 seats”. Using a normal interpretation based on uniform statewide swings, I count 24 – and that still leaves Bass, Braddon and Solomon outside the equation. Western Australia remains a wild card.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6 comments on “Newspoll marginals survey”

  1. Starting from scratch again, eh? Them’s the breaks. Without knowing the technical details, I wonder if it crashed from so many people trying to access the site to check the legitimacy of Shanas claims?

    It’s now the most famous beat-up since his claim that a one point rise in Howard’s personal approval showed he was on the way back. I still love Mumble’s headline from that piece: Great news for Howard. Labor to win in Landslide. It is only fitting that William and Mumble put this one to bed as they have.

    To all the Nervous Nellies out there: nothing to worry about here, nor with Garrett. Apart from the Hockey link, wasn’t Steve Price the man who gave oxygen to the Latham Orgies video at the last election. True, Garrett should’ve known better than even to respond to Price, but it’s really only us tragics, insiders and psephs that give a toss about those things. They pass by the average punter mostly. Even when noticed, it is usually a WTF and then on with life.

    Garrett is a real positive for the ALP, make no mistake. Why do you think so many candidates are trying to draw him along. If the Libs continue to go after him, it’ll go exactly the same way as Burkegate, Get Gillard, Swan’s the Weakest Link, and other fizzers. Garrett at the national level and Cornes at the local level may cause insiders to squirm but they more than compensate with their ability to appeal to the uncommitted.

  2. My spies in Boothby tell me that Nicole Cornes is doing just fine, thank you. She connecting with people one-on-one – away from the media frenzy – and the more people meet her, the more they are talking up her candidacy to their friends and family.

    She’s not gone by a long way.

  3. The Australian very carefully did *not* tell us which seats were polled (Victoria aside). This to be published on Monday.

    On the assumption that both Bennelong and Wentworth were included in NSW, this would go some way to explaining the apparent tightening of primary votes.

  4. I notice that on Insiders today George M made no reference to this poll. Instead he referred to the Newspoll data published in the Tuesday Australian.

  5. I also note Mumble’s criticisms of Shanahan. In particular, ‘best case’ for Coalition = poll result minus error margin on Labor’s vote (8 seats). ‘Worst case’ for Coalition = poll result.

    Amusing to read Shanahan and Lebovic’s analyses side by side. Could they be more different?

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