Prior to the leaders debate at the 2004 election, I went to the trouble of unearthing poll results on the previous debates going back to 1984. The Hawke versus Peacock debate of that year was the first, as it was previously a well established item of conventional wisdom that debates had little to offer an incumbent. However, Bob Hawke could hardly refuse in 1984 as Labor had run television ads during the 1983 campaign mocking Malcolm Fraser for his refusal to play ball. The record since makes clear that Fraser’s reticence had been well founded, as incumbents have only managed two wins from nine starts. In fewer than half of the nine cases did the winner of a debate go on to win the election.
1984, November 26: Peacock 50, Hawke 37 (Spectrum poll).
1987: Once bitten, Bob Hawke chickens out, leaving John Howard’s supposed debating shortcomings unexposed for another decade.
1990, February 25: Hawke 46, Peacock 36 (Newspoll).
1993, February 14: Hewson 45, Keating 31 (Newspoll).
1993, March 7: Keating 44, Hewson 38 (Newspoll).
1996, February 11: Howard 50, Keating 36 (Newspoll).
1996, February 25: Howard 54, Keating 36 (Newspoll).
1998, September 13: No poll located, but reports of the worm suggest Beazley narrowly defeated Howard.
2001, October 14: Beazley 55, Howard 35 (Newspoll).
2004, September 13: Two-thirds of Nine’s studio audience gave it to Latham over Howard.
It should be noted that Channel Nine clearly botched the job of assembling an audience of undecided voters at the 2004 debate, as the behaviour of the worm made clear. Particular notice was taken of a green-haired young gentleman in the audience who looked like nobody’s idea of a person who was considering a vote for Howard. Nonetheless, the overwhelming weight of published opinion, including my own, was that Latham had indeed put in the more confident performance.
Certainly if there are any areas of policy that Labor thinks the Libs will want to do too (eg. childcare rebate) they should get in first.
Possum, what do you think of internal party polling as oppossed to ACN & Newspoll?
Centre, you can be assured if such positive polling for the Libs existed it would have been leaked to media outlets, not this blog.
Well Snoop Dog, if you are right, you can claim bragging rights for the next century. However, some of the claims you make really do defy common sense.
1. Its very, very hard to see the coalition holding onto its 2 most marginal seats in queensland. Kevin Rudd is from Queensland, and I’d bet my cotton socks that will put at least a few % on Labor’s primary.
2. The recent newspoll showed Labor ahead in Braddon, 51-49. This seat will probably be the closest in Tasmania, but it would be hard to see Labor not winning it.
3. South Australians are clearly the smartest people in Australia. But then, I’m biased 🙂
4. Regardless of how amazingly “popular” AWA’s might be in WA, it is still hard to see Labor doing worse than in 2004. In my view, the worst case scenario for the ALP in WA is the status quo.
I think I pretty much agree with Adam’s predictions; the ALP will win around 10 seats at a canter. After that it becomes more difficult, but whilst the ALP primary vote is above approx 42% (which it is well above right now), its hard to see the ALP losing.
Um A-C, Do you want to get fair dinkum?
All the major financial institutions on the ASX expect the Australian economy to continue to grow strongly for the next decade REGARDLESS OF WHO IS IN GOVERNMENT!!!
Let’s stop stuffing around.
South Australian’s smartest eh? Not judging by the road behaviour and nor by your beer… no one smart would ever touch West End!
You’ve obviously never tried Coopers then John Rocket !
Centre – it depends on the type of internal polling.Some is better than others, as you could imagine.
The Crosby Textor Oztrack stuff is a good example of good polling, and the ALP has its own equivalent of that.
But so saying, the parties will often poll a single seat, or an area with a relatively small sample size, and then use focus group overlay to tease out some of the qualitative stuff.
Some of that small sample polling can be a bit dubious, and even larger sample seat by seat polling can be dubious if there are local factors at play that can skew your sample in some way (and even adjusting for it by stratification weights can be difficult if there really are local factors at play that cause a particular voting demographic to be under or over represented in the phone polling).
Made out of purest Murry mud… and you didn’t address the driving problems… “Keep Left Unless Overtaking” what is so hard about this idea?
Snoop Dog – started drinking early today?
Nah, still carrying on from last night, and sleep deprivation is also starting to kick in.
Snoop Dog, are you sure you’re not Snoopy, who was expelled by William after trying to make this blog into a personal insult zone.
And I suppose the attitude towards concerned voters in Liberal electorates…
is indicative of how the Liberal Party intends to govern for all Australia?
Newspoll has had Labor at 58-42 in marginals, so that sounds pretty damn good to me.
Snoop Dog = troll
Even the kitchen cabinet aren’t seeing internal Lib polling so why would you?
Thanks Snoop Dog. Normally when “internal polling” is shown to the type of person who goes off and posts it on the internet the next day, they’re goosing a stooge. You’re obviously much smarter than that though.
Possum in your honest opinion, where do you think Labor is now in terms of how many seats they can win and what degree of confidence would you place on that assessment???
Hey leave Snoop alone you guys he’s no a troll he’s telling it how it is ya’ll plus he doesnt seem like a Labor voter and we need more Tories on this blog…i agree with most of Snoops post!
I can vouch for Snoop Dog.
I was also sent that internal polling last night and although as I remember things were 50-50 in moreton and bonner rather than with us in front, everything else is as I saw it.
To ape Snoop Dog:
I just received Labor internal polling. Here’s what it says.
1. Qld, Labor on 55% 2PP, and set to make 12 seat gains
2. NSW, Labor on 60% 2PP, and will make 15 gains, incl. Bennelong and Wentworth
3. Vic, Labor on 60% 2PP and will make 10 gains
4. SA, Labor on 57% 2PP and will make 5 gains
5. WA, Labor picking up 3 seats
6. Tas, Labor gaining both marginals
7. NT, Labor getting Solomon
Total Labor gains 44, Labor win 104 seats, and have a 58 seat MAJORITY.
Yes, that’s close to my information, Lord D.
The only difference is in the addition. I make it a gain of 48, a win of 104 and a 66 seat majority
Sorry, that’s a win of 108
Centre – I think the ALP is in the same place they’ve been for 9 months.
If Kev is caught kanoodling with a posse of naked nuns, he might lost by a seat or two, but short of that type of spectacular event, I still think he’s looking at winning between 20 and 40 seats.How many will be determined in the last 2 weeks of the campaign because there will be a lot of ex-safish Coalition seats that will be in the 49-51 range on polling day.
My best guess now is still what it was back on the 26th September:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=590&cp=4#comment-42885
“the only maths you’ll need this year is 60+29=89”
Savva, good day Ashley – It is good to know in my heart that someone twigs pure scientific methodology for political archaeology. The bones always have many stories for those who care to watch. Remember: history tells us many things, but the answer always lies in the dirt.
Brian has been leaving his research at the pub again. 🙂
Snoop Dog #184
I think you’ve been sniffing the base of too many trees!
The state to watch is Victoria. Every Liberal metropolitan seat in Melbourne is “in play”. The Liberals are even worried about Casey and Goldstein.
It is no coincidence that Rudd has visited Goldstein 3 times and was a guest at Little Athletics yesterday in the heart of Casey. He’s been there a couple of times in the past few weeks. Andrew Landeryou also made mention of Casey on his blog.
Strange and bewildering times.
Why was Howard in Longman last week?
Strangely enough, someone sent me an email last night that showed Kevin kanoodling with some naked nuns. I think his approval rating will go through the roof.
Thanks Possum, same answer I gave to Snoop Dog. I am giving Con Kafataris a call to get on. 🙂
I thought Howard was keeping the internal polling to himself and Brian Loughane. Not even Tip has been privy to the numbers.
Geez, it’s a bit desperate when the Libs have to throw-up cooked alleged private polling figures to try and convince people that they’re back in the race.
The published mainstream polls have had the Coalition headed for a massacre all year, yet now, within a week of the election being called and with both parties essentially matching each other’s Tax cut bribery, the Lib cheer squad would have us believe that the demonstrable 10-month dyanmic has been turned on it’s head.
What a load of cobblers.
You lot haven’t had a bounce of any kind all year and the only bounce you’re gonna get is when you’re bounced out of office on 24th November.
There are unconfirmed reports that at Old Parliament House this evening this evening, Dolly Downer will don blazer, fishnets, high heels, wig, slap and lippy to accompany, on French horn, the Kranski Sisters for a medley of gallery-settlin’ ditties before the main event.
Bushfire Bill, deft vivisection of the m.o. and physiognomy of The Smirk. And yes, Citizen Rupert’s stable have given Ruddster a surprisingly good shake after his recent “Me Too, But Better” tax policy announcements. Even Shill Shanahan managed a momentary lapse from his usual hysteria, but it’s probably just a temporary thing.
All this focus on Janette Macbeth is interesting – the most prominent she’s ever been… reaction to Therese Rein or… has the Liberal Party been reduced to its bare essentials? is Team Rodent just down to him and his wife… and a few trusted confidantes? Mr. Howard has regressed back to the 80s model: no-one trusts him and he trusts no-one.
(Sorry, if I offended any South Australian’s on the blog (and there seems to be a lot of you…) but… I’ve driven down that Main North Road too many times… and you start thinking really bad thoughts about a place based on that road… esp. around Elizabeth :))
Snoop Dogg and Puff Daddy, huh? I wonder when 50 Cent and Eminem are planning on confirming that they, too, received internal Liberal polling in their inbox.
John Rocket, no offence taken, but you’ll be thanking us Croweaters on November 24 !
Ahh, my son is a croweater… but sshh- don’t tell anyone eles – every family has skeletons… this is ours! 🙂
Just read the transcript of Oakes/Swan and Oakes goes on the attack a lot and I’m not sure Swan fended him off on those issues. If he did, only barely.
A couple of months ago, I said in the blogs that all Rudd had to do to win this election was to promise to introduce more generous child care payments and to reduce HECS. The first wins over the ‘working families’ ; the second wins over the Gen Ys and Xs and their boomer parents. The fix is in on the first.
Remember the squeeze that Latham put on Howard during the handshake for the debate in 2004.
Only trouble was that he followed it up with a near headbut at the infamous ‘handshake’ near the end of the campaign.
Alex
I agree, but there is also pensioners, if Rudd can do something for them (disability and aged) then he has the trifecta.
ruawake – yes, I agree. I’ll be one in the not so distant future!
Disability pensioners could be an Achilles heel for Rudd. His wife’s company has recently become involved in return to work programs in the UK that are controversial and driven by the insurance companies. He has to handle this group of pensioners very carefully.
Andrew Leigh on both tax packages.
http://andrewleigh.com/?p=1658
Just Me – I don’t think Rudd’s wife’s business actitivties in the UK would resonate here. The main issue there is not with the particpants of assistance schemes, but with public servants who are afraid of losing their jobs as work is moved to the private sector. The poms have had some success with their ‘back to work’ programs, unlike here where the financial disincentives have dissuaded many.
Just Me, I am one. (DSP).
The UK thing is irrelevant.
Howard has alienated all DSPs with his welfare to slavery policies. Tax cuts mean nothing, rebates mean nothing. All it needs is an acknowledgement and a feel good gesture and it could make the difference in a few tight seats.
I do not think it possible that the swings can be on in the safe labor
and non labor seats and not the marginals
some seats are marginal because they are a mix of safe labor and
anti labor areas eg Swan in WA
I don’t think you can get crazy results like
liberals gain Cowan and lose Oconnor
some marginal seats will defy the swing others will swing more
Slightly OT – is there a Newspoll in tomorrow’s GG?
There is a Newspoll this week – could be out tomorrow or tues.
Also a little OT. Are there any rules in tonights debate which forbids either leader announcing a new policy initiative?
226 [Why was Howard in Longman last week?]
Doing a farewell lap with Janette before the Nuclear reactor at Bribie island comes to bite him on the bum.
I was rung up for political polling by Newspoll yesterday lunchtime. Due to a “computer glitch” however, as soon as I said I’d participate, the young guy told me he wouldn’t be able to proceed with the interview. Sounded very busy in the background.
He said there’d be lots of polling in the coming weeks “what with the election coming up”.