Yakety yak

Prior to the leaders debate at the 2004 election, I went to the trouble of unearthing poll results on the previous debates going back to 1984. The Hawke versus Peacock debate of that year was the first, as it was previously a well established item of conventional wisdom that debates had little to offer an incumbent. However, Bob Hawke could hardly refuse in 1984 as Labor had run television ads during the 1983 campaign mocking Malcolm Fraser for his refusal to play ball. The record since makes clear that Fraser’s reticence had been well founded, as incumbents have only managed two wins from nine starts. In fewer than half of the nine cases did the winner of a debate go on to win the election.

1984, November 26: Peacock 50, Hawke 37 (Spectrum poll).

1987: Once bitten, Bob Hawke chickens out, leaving John Howard’s supposed debating shortcomings unexposed for another decade.

1990, February 25: Hawke 46, Peacock 36 (Newspoll).

1993, February 14: Hewson 45, Keating 31 (Newspoll).

1993, March 7: Keating 44, Hewson 38 (Newspoll).

1996, February 11: Howard 50, Keating 36 (Newspoll).

1996, February 25: Howard 54, Keating 36 (Newspoll).

1998, September 13: No poll located, but reports of the worm suggest Beazley narrowly defeated Howard.

2001, October 14: Beazley 55, Howard 35 (Newspoll).

2004, September 13: Two-thirds of Nine’s studio audience gave it to Latham over Howard.

It should be noted that Channel Nine clearly botched the job of assembling an audience of undecided voters at the 2004 debate, as the behaviour of the worm made clear. Particular notice was taken of a green-haired young gentleman in the audience who looked like nobody’s idea of a person who was considering a vote for Howard. Nonetheless, the overwhelming weight of published opinion, including my own, was that Latham had indeed put in the more confident performance.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

400 comments on “Yakety yak”

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  1. Big Gains in South Australia, NSW and Victoria.
    4% gain in Queensland and only 1% gain in Western Australia.

    Labor wins with 79 seats.

    You heard it here first!

  2. One key aspect of Rudd’s strategy this year has been to avoid the wedges, avoid negativity and not get dragged down into Howard’s agenda.

    Rudd’s apparent me-too-ism has been on avoiding the NT invasion wedge; the terrorism Haneef wedge; the lack of economic credentials wedge (by a conservative budget reply and so on and the latest tax policy). AND I believe it was the perfect tactic otherwise most of Rudd’s time over the previous months would have been on the defensive countering wedge claims and fighting the type of war Howard wants.

    I think many of us have been sucked into Howard and News Ltd’s mantra of me-too-ism. Strange they never reveresed it when Howard at the last became interested in eductaion, health/hospitals, Climate Change, Broadband, Hicks, softening WorkChoices and so – they are the major me-too-isms of the lot – but not a word from the MSM.

    Avoiding the wedge means avoiding fighting off the backfoot and handing the agenda to Howard.

  3. 248 I thought that was an essential element of it for someone with a plan for the future. Wouldn’t think it will interest someone standing on his dismal record though.

  4. Sorry to go over oldish ground, but if Snoop Dog’s startling ‘internal polling’ insights are correct, why is the rodent even bothering to campaign? If it’s all over, why isn’t he sitting on the deckchair at the ole’ palace, G&T in hand and Hyacinth at his elbow bossing the serfs around? Or perhaps Captain Smirk has seen the same polling as Snoop Dog, which explains his similarly startling performance on Insiders this morning; what were they handing out at Lib Party HQ last night – it seems to have had a lasting effect …

  5. Any Labor or Liberal staffer who gave away hard earned and expensive internal polling data would be fired on the spot and crucified. I think we can safely say that Snoop Dog’s internal polling was to put it kindly Snoop Dog poop. Though I’m sure Glen will believe it along with the stories he hears about Santa Claus voting Liberal.

  6. 254 Yes I am against drink spiking personally, far better if people choose their own drugs. I’ll be avoiding Liberal Headquarters if this is the best they can dredge up.

  8. Just read the tirade at 184 Snoop Dog Says:
    October 21st, 2007 at 2:00 pm:

    If you have been told Tollner is going to retain Solomon then they are lying to you It will be extremely unlikely event.

    ALSO the largest swings are in Liberal safe seats. We have been through this analysis before, go look at Possums site to catch up with the rest of us. The smallest swings are in Labor safe seats [no doubt due to Labor vote saturation already].

    Yeh, soon as I saw ‘Howard Haters’ I knew something silly would follow.

    If you truly cared about Australia and Australians instead of supporting your football side – the Liberals – you would probably be voting Labor.

  9. I think many of us have been sucked into Howard and News Ltd’s mantra of me-too-ism. Strange they never reveresed it when Howard at the last became interested in eductaion, health/hospitals, Climate Change, Broadband, Hicks, softening WorkChoices and so – they are the major me-too-isms of the lot – but not a word from the MSM.

    And don’t forget reconciliation.

    Howard has backed down on just about everything this year, and you’re right — the MSM has let him get away with it.

    It annoys me greatly when the media attack Rudd for matching Howard’s policies, because he has little choice if he is to avoid a wedge. The media should equally well be attacking Howard for cynical politics — but of course, they seldom do.

    I think Rudd can nip it in the bud if he continues to release policy ahead of the government (as he has done for most of the year). Action speaks louder than words, as they say.

  15. Umm, I am involved closely with and very well informed about the hard science of some of this stuff, and if you think that the the UK programs are an unambiguous and ethical success, and that what happens in the UK is irrelevant to here, you are both seriously mistaken.

    AM: This has nothing to do with public servants trying to keep their jobs, that is pure ideological smear tactics, which only betrays a serious ignorance on your part of the real story.

    ruawake: Do you honestly think Rudd is going to significantly reverse the adverse changes Howard has made to the Disability Pension? Rudd is only marginally less conservative than Howard.

  16. AM @ 260 It started out as “Union Bosses”
    Now it is “Union officials”
    What’s next “Union members?”
    Then perhaps “Union Sympathisers”.

  17. [ #266
    Mark Says:
    October 21st, 2007 at 4:33 pm

    AM @ 260 It started out as “Union Bosses”
    Now it is “Union officials”
    What’s next “Union members?”
    Then perhaps “Union Sympathisers”. ]
    .
    .
    Reminds you of Weapons of Mass Destruction and then Weapons of Mass Destruction programs, etc, etc.

  18. Tax War?:

    http://www2.skynews.com.au/news/article.aspx?id=196050

    “Labor’s Wayne Swan and the Coalition’s Peter Costello have erupted in a war of words over the finer details of each other’s tax policies.

    Treasurer Peter Costello has accused the opposition of making a blunder that would see 45 per cent of tax payers spend $600 more a year to the tax man.

    ‘$600 a year was what Wayne Swan tried to take off families in the last election, now he’s trying to take off $600 in this election, it reminds me of the Britney Spears song, Oops I Did it Again,’ said Mr Costello.

    But Shadow Treasurer, Wayne Swan says Mr Costello is just peddling a scare campaign.

    ‘Absolute rubbish, Peter Costello has only got half a tax plan, he’s published some rates but he hasn’t published any thresholds.”

    ‘So why didn’t Peter Costello publish the thresholds he was talking about on television this morning, I’ll tell you why he didn’t, because he hasn’t got those thresholds,’ stated Mr Swan”.

    I am sure Wayne Swan will be a better treasurer than the gutless Peter Costello.

  19. Apparently we all need to identify oursleves in case we have a double life as a political journo…

    Well, I’m happy to do that, just as soon as I get my special costume back from the cleaners,

    then all you have to do is look out for me,

    ………in the dark of night……….
    ……………………………………, up there on the rooftops…….,

  20. A thought for tonight: didn’t Max Gilles refer to it as the Mass Debate? There you go. I have tried to flame the anti-Chaser types.

  24. Kina – you’re spot on. Rudd has done well to avoid getting into arguments that Howard wants in order to apply the trusty wedge. The screamingly tedious ‘me too’ phrase has come out of that. That aside, as Phil Coorey in the herald yesterday wrote, Rudd has set much of the agenda for the year on all the big issues: (broadband, climate, IR, welfare to work, not to mention long standing Labor issues like reconcilation). The lackeys in the media usually run with most concepts dreamt up by Lib PR headquarters but the traction they’re getting on ‘me too’ is unbelievable.

  26. Banner headline p 1 Courier-Mail: Rudd sacks Union Thug.

    It’s Maranoa for goodness sake – a token candidate in an unimportant seat, who probably would lose no votes anyway in that seat for being seen to be a tough guy.

    Only time will tell, but I think Rudd’s response to Dean Mighell and by extension this instance is ludicrous. He’s learnt nothing from Howard’s successful obduracy and indeed loyalty.

    The bigger issue – aside from the class politics of the editors who frame such terms as ‘union thug’ ‘union boss’ – is Labor’s failure to stand up for anything in the past decade. It’s now way too late to mount a case for any kind of collective value today: and that’s why Labor’s vulnerable to a scare campaign.

    If Labor loses, of course, Rudd will blame it (internally at least) on union links, whether he believes it or not, to concentrate more power in his office. He may well do this even if he wins, hence the debate already amongst Laborites about the role of WorkChoices in the govt’s slide over the past 2 years.

  29. The Morgan and AC Neilsen polls would give only the slightest comfort to Howard.

    Morgan remarkably shows a dead LNP primary and a strong interest in the Greens. If Labor suffer a loss in primary it goes off to the Green’s to be returned via preferences.

    AC Neilsen shows a very firm Labor primary and an under sampling of Green. I wonder if you are undersampling Green areas if you are not also undersampling Labor areas? In any case the Greens would be 1% higher than that. Who will have to sacrifice that 1%? If it is Labor they get it back, if it is LNP then Labor get it in preferences.

    The Galaxy seems to over sample the Greens at 8% which probably should go onto the Labor primary.

    AND there is also the Morgan F2F from last weekend 13/14th to ponder:
    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4229/
    [they have tacked the phone poll results on the end of their normal F2F list]
    Morgan F2F (Pre-campaign)
    TPP: ALP 57/43 Coalition
    Primaries: ALP 49.5, Coalition 39.5,
    Survey Period: 13/14 October 07 (Saturday/Sunday)

    Again the LNP primary dead and exchanges between Labor and Greens.

  30. And what part of ‘how is that going to make any difference to your life’ do you misunderstand?

    Don’t misunderstand me, ruawake, I have lot of sympathy for people in your position, I spend most of my working week trying to improve it, so my credibility is good on this stuff. But how is a superficial gesture going to improve your life if the basic rules and conditions of the DSP don’t change?

  31. But the Liberal Party has issued a “bingo”-style card so viewers can mark down Kevin Rudd’s “annoying” phrases and mannerisms.The card includes areas dedicated to the use of phrases by Mr Rudd such as “fresh ideas”, “end of the blame game”, “the buck stops with me”, and “I am an economic conservative”.
    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,%2022620041-953,00.html
    .
    .
    Well we know we’ll never hear Howard talk about “fresh ideas” or “the buck stops with me”. He has no fresh ideas and is never wrong about anything so why would he need to use them.

  32. Saw Oceans 13 last night at home and am I wrong or does this person

    .html?path=pgallery&path_key=Barkin%2C%20Ellen&seq=12&

    Look like a cute version of Janet Albrechtsen?

  33. Have just been polled for the first time ever……did I think Australia was heading in the right direction? It will be in a few weeks.
    Of interest were questions re Gavin O’Connor…Was I aware of the circumstances? Would I preference him above liberals?What was good about O’Connor?
    Also asked to rank J Howard PCostello, Julia and Kevin, Richard Marles and Gavin O’Connor, plus the lib and green candidates on scale of1-10

  35. Kina @ 279, the minor party votes are virtually meaningless on the MoE that is involved. What you are noticing is general sampling error. BTW – I will come clean. I am an apathy troll. Apart from a wierd sudoku-pleasure in trying to predict the result, I couldn’t care less about the ALP or the Coalition. The ‘me-too’ message has got through to me from both sides loud and clear.

    Janet Albrechtson – ewk!

  38. You know, for all that Im an election tragic – just like you cats here – I really dont know if I can be bothered with the debate tonight.

    I mean, seriously: Are John Howard and Kevin Rudd two of the most boring politicians of the last generation, or what?

    I can just imagine the sparkling repartee now.

  39. ruawake, just me – yes, politics is almost ALL about perception. EG John Howard is not an evil man, but his obsession with staying in power creates the perception that he not a nice person.

  41. G’Day All

    I have my bingo card card ready for tonight. I’m not a Lib, but I’m after something to help me get through the 90 minutes. If I didn’t have it I’d probably go cross-eyed

    Here’s one from AAP:

    “The federal government has been caught out making false claims about the union connections of Labor frontbenchers.

    Federal Treasurer Peter Costello was forced to admit that “a couple of” Labor MPs featured in a coalition campaign were not union officials”

    Have they lost credibility on this now? They wouldn’t have pushed it if their research said that wouldn’t have got votes out of it….

    Or would they?

  42. For 11 years someone with no more skill than a filing clerk has been running this country, all because Hawke/Keating fixed the economy.

    If Howard did not have the incumbency advantage would he even have a chance at this election?

  47. Yes – nothing to be taken from the last polls until we get a trend with more. Just that their was no real Howard joy in the Morgan and Neilsen while the Galaxy has to be seen as dubious until it is confirmed or otherwise.

    Won’t get to see tonight’s debate unless it is on Hong Kong TV which I doubt. But will check for comments on here when I can get on the net.

  48. JWH does have talents, just not the one’s that you would expect your PM to have:

    1: Lying.
    2: Deceiving.
    3: Scheming.
    4: Dividing and Conquering.
    5: Smearing.
    6: Cheating and Robbing.
    7: Bribing.

  49. Mr Squiggle at 269

    Miss Jane, Miss Jane!

    BB at 282 said re: Ellen Barkin:

    “Look like a cute version of Janet Albrechtsen?”

    Could not be more wrong Bill – Ms Barkin has talent!

    Who remembers Sea of Love, or the quintessential B-grade pop-rock flick Eddie and the Cruisers? (1 or 2 will do) 😉

  50. Barry Cassidy didn’t really give Costello that hard a time.
    My appreciation goes to the camera guy who gave us shots of Costello’s legs nervously twitching.

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