The Australian has published a follow-up to its weekend Newspoll survey, showing issues rated most important and the party considered best equipped to handle them. Labor holds handsome leads on six of the eight listed issues, the exceptions being the economy and national security. Interestingly, the Coalition’s score on industrial relations has increased to 34 per cent from 31 per cent at the previous survey in June, after hovering around 30 per cent since the beginning of 2006. Industrial relations is also the one issue where there was no appreciable shift to Labor when Kevin Rudd became leader. The other issue to run against the overall trend is national security – it surged to Labor as strongly as any other when Rudd took over, but the Coalition has since recovered to levels near those of the Beazley era.
Hi Been There,
Agree strongly with the point around the so-called “tampa election”.
There is no way the 2001 result was driven by tampa. It has to have been the twin towers that drove the result,
the characterisation of 2001 as the tampa election is just another left leaning attempt to re-write history
[ another left leaning attempt to re-write history ]
Oh no. The leftie conspirators are at it again. Shock. Horror. What next? Something about Unions taking over the world maybe?
AM- better to scrap the fringe benefits tax on company car use which the rich lap up and use the proceeds to fight climate change.. with measures towards public transport like tax deductions for using transport, not that would be a measured response and a visionary way forward… will not happen has not got the guts…
The whole negative trade unionist thing:
My problem with this campaign is that a majority of under 35’s would not get this whole trade union paranoia.
Where does this paranoia come from, for someone who is 23 and thinks, so what if they are trade unionists. If they can do the job, they’ll be fine.
#742
“We’ll all be rooned said Hanrahan”
Apologies to Henry Lawson.
Climate changes all the time, ‘Droughts and flooding rains” etc.
Goebells once said “if you repeat a lie often enough everybody will believe it’
If there is any scientific proof that carbon dioxide leads to significant warming( as compared to computer-generated predictions for the year 2100 which can’t be proved or disproved in any current lifetime, and which are so dire that a major response seems reasonable) I for one would like to see it!! I don’t believe such scientific proof exists but if it does bring it on, I’m open to being convinced. Just a refereence will do, we certainly don’t want to clog up this site with an environmental debate.
‘
Please, no off-topic debate about the reality or otherwise of climate change.
William Bowe
http://www.pollbludger.com
Gotta post this important new poll here, William, as thread seems front runner.
Conducted a highly scientific, random phone survey of one person, my 21 year old niece, an hour before she would have seen any TV news.
Questions and findings, slightly paraphrased, for the sake of economy.
What is a communist? Um, wouldn’t have known, but Uncle J was explaining it recently…North Korea , everyone gets paid the same. What do you think about that? That is bad. (CW thinks her brother J is a nut case, anyway. Sorry, CW means he’s biased).
Who is Julia Gillard? Oh, the redhead. Looks like country singer, Reba. Does that matter? No, doesn’t matter. If you thought Julia was a communist, would it influence your vote? Probably not. What Party does Julia belong to? I think Labor, have seen her next to Kevin Rudd.
Is China a communist or democratic country? I think communist from what Uncle J said.
Does Australia sell uranium to China? Don’t think they do or are. Would that be good or bad? Bad, because communists are bad.
Is Russia a communist or democratic country? I think, were. Does Australia sell uranium to Russia? Not sure.
What if I told you Australia is going to sell uranium to Russia and that Russia is pretty well communist anyway? Should Australia sell uranium to Russia? Well….not sure what uranium is for. What if I told you it could be used for nuclear weapons? Bad!
Who are you voting for? Oooh, that’s personal…well, Labor.
Why? Well Mum votes Labor. I don’t like John Howard. Because of the GST. (Niece goes on to explain, but CW can’t quite fathom the reason).
Does Work Choices have any influence on your vote? No.
Do you prefer Kevin Rudd or John Howard? Kevin Rudd. Why? Dunno… fresh faced, Australia’s in need of a change. Why do you say that? From polls and the papers. Don’t know, most young people don’t know much about it, mostly young people don’t like John Howard. He doesn’t go on Rove. Rove shows that John Howard is a dork. Flappy track pants (etc).
Are you on an AWA? Is that an err…Australian Work Place Agreement? Yes. Not sure if I am.
Explanation by CW.
Oh yeah, but started in work place three years ago. Niece concludes she is probably not on an AWA.
But volunteers that she is on her original contract of three years ago, despite a substantial uplift in level of responsibility, at a DROP of $1.00 in her overall wage and since a 35 cent or so per hour age based only pay rise. That she is trying to work up “the guts†to ask for a pay rise.
That she only recently was eligible for overtime (subject to), after more than a year with this new responsibility. Which cost her any opportunity for penalty rates anyway.
Thinks her contract doesn’t ALLOW her to JOIN a Union. But basically if she didn’t sign, didn’t get the job.
Says newer employees are having to sign their rights away (her exact words). That an HR person is recently on deck to review all the contracts.
Do you think that is likely to get anyone a better deal? No.
Do you think you would get a better deal at work under Labor? Yes. Why? I saw Kevin Rudd’s ad and he said it would make a difference. (Explicates). Have you looked at Labor’s Fair Work policy? No.
Will the proposed Howard tax cuts influence your vote? Tax cuts? More explanation by CW. Was in all the papers. Oh, I don’t read the back pages. Front pages, dear. No idea, only saw Ben Cousins, no T shirt, etc. Only pay $x tax anyway.
CW:Thank you for participating in this survey.
Niece: My pleasure, will read up about so I can give better answers next time. Where will this be on the Internet?
CW: Will email you a copy of the blog.
PS Great tooing and froing among family members checking AEC status, warnings to those who ahem.
And Garrett pledges to have a go at Cane Toads: Should win him some kudos in QLD even if his names stinks in Tassie now among the tree huggers.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/17/2062323.htm?site=elections/federal/2007
Paul K,
If the percentage of unionists in federal cabinet was more than 70%, then I’d suggest two things:
1) Lefties have taken over the government
2) an impartial look at the facts would support 1) above.
That’s just me though, looking at the facts etc
So Been There the arctic isn’t melting rapidly and islands in the pacific are not being inundated… what next.. you dill.. . Once the arctic melts Been There temperatures will increase much more.. and why because ice reflects the heat of the sun.. but i suppose it is caused by the aligning of the planets and sun moving closer to the earth.. any other explanations… please tell me.. So car pollution and deadly emissions from power stations are good for us then?
It is people like yourself which in the end will result in the most life on earth dissappearing..
Ahem …
Mr Squiggle 751
I think the important point about Tampa is not that it did or didn’t cost the ALP the election, rather that the effect was so short term. Same with the current ‘Fistful of Dollars’ from Howard/Costello.It didn’t last in the 1980’s, and it won’t last this time. But Howard and co don’t seem to learn that shock effects are essentially short term. Rudd has and consequently has it all over them.
The first ALP fast response counter adverstisment was quite good. However, I really do hope that precious Kevin keeps this stuff up. If he does it any more it will really start to look as though his glass jaw is about to break. Him personally responding to every attack ad is not a good look.
Mr Squiggle,
The Cold War is over. Go back to the 19th century if you want to start a class war. No one outside the Liberal Party gives a fig about this Unionists under the bed campaign. It hasn’t swayed the voters and never will. I don’t know what you expect to gain by pedaling it here. It’s a non issue. Might as well argue that dinosaurs will rule the world again one day.
Marky Marky.
Not the place for me to give chapter and verse about how wrong I Believe you are and how easily swayed you seem to be by the loud voices crying that the sky is falling without providing any supportable evidence. Happy to debate you on another blog any time.
Enough is enough just a comment..
Unionists under the bed again..
Labors’ response should be that unions have provided better working conditions for people- sick days, holidays, safer workplaces, public holiday pay and so on… but instead it is a scare tactic.. how about getting on the front foot and stating what they do.. time to remind the electorate.. and remind the electorate about who created medicare, pharmecital scheme and superannuation.. a postive ad to remind the electorate.. things which the coalition never touched and another thing what has coalition done regarding working conditions since being in office simple answer nothing..
Been There,
How are things at the Flat Earth society these days?
Everybody seems to be ignoring the Dlp chances in the Senate. They are running candidates in all states, and have a chance of Senate seats in Vic. and Tassie. They have a chance to pick up Harridines voters in Tassie. In Vic they got more votes than FF at last election. DLP voters are rusted on, and their vote will increase from last time because this time they are running a national campaign, so will be considered as more crediable, and worthy of a vote. They were ignored by all parties and commentators at the recent Victorian election, but succeded in getting a member Peter Kavanagh elected to the upper House, and another who was beaten in a recount. Other Parties ignore the DLP at their own peril. The preferences of other Parties will be decisive, but nearly all other Parties will preference against the Greens in most states. The CDP and FF will swap preferences with the DLP, and whichever of these Parties receives the larger vote will have an excelllent chance of being lected to the Senate, and maybe holding the balance of power
Crikey at 747 said:
“Why do you say that? From polls and the papers”
Welcome to Crosby Textor ‘Win Expectations’ 101.
Are not 6 of the highest 8 standards of living in countries with the highest union membership? Who would you be scared to meet on a dark night – a union boss or a Brethren boss?
Paul K,
Sounds like the typical response of someone with nothing to say except denigrating rhetoric.
Actually I rather expected some intelligent comment on my original post which was almost entirely about psephological issues.
I certainly won’t be responding any further to inane comments like your last.
Agree the DLP may be a force.. depends on the preferences, thus if Labor preferences them before the Greens which is likely in Tassie and perhaps Victoria… and the DLP will be very supportive of Labors’ industrial relations changes.
Paul K, your 100% right it is a non issue. The only ones afraid of unions, or talking about unions, are rusted on libs as it is merely an ideological position. The far right frightened me off to the safety of unions LOL.
A-C, he doesn’t have to do it again, the point has been well and truly made and any further anti-union ads will merely reinforce it.
Been There, you are one of those that when the sky does fall on your head will complain that someone should have prevented it LOL.
I also disagree with those who believe the Green vote will decrease. Many are willing to switch to Labor in HoR but look to the safety of Greens in the senate to make it a proper house of review.
Been There (735) Not totally sure of this but I think Hawke won one of his four victories with a 2pp less than 50%. Can’t check it at the moment.
I am not suggesting it will fall, i think they will hold their own similar result to 2004. The Greens like in the Victorian recent elections are hamstrung by most parties preferencing against them and a focus to narrowly on policies which really don’t need commenting on like drugs..
The Greens will also get no help from our right wing media with the Murdoch press again probably emotionally going overboard with scare tactics on leftist marxist rubbish..
[ I rather expected some intelligent comment ]
Been There,
To receive an intelligent comment you need to start with an intelligent point rather than comparing environmentalists to Nazies. ” Goebells once said…” is not an intelligent argument, it’s just another gutless insult.
If John Howards says we are pointing out the facts on Union members in as candidates, why doesn’t Labor point out the facts and tell people what unions have done for people…
Crikey Whitey (757) – I enjoyed that, even if no-one else did. Thanks for sharing! It’s nice to get a detailed phone poll result instead of those ones that Gary Morgan trots out.
My own experience today at work during morning tea break. Was with four other colleagues of uncertain voting intention. Mentioned the election, and the “Porkometer” as it was printed in the SMH that I was reading at the time. Mentioned the $34b tax cuts.
Immediate reactions from all four colleagues was of the order of “why wasn’t this spent on hospitals or water” and “we don’t *need* tax cuts” and so on.
All four of my colleagues live in the seat of Macquarie, unlike yours truly, who lives in Werriwa.
Confirms what most people have been saying. Monday’s announcement was another dead cat.
Agreed Marky, after all the DLP are a Labour Party.
Their record of voting in the Victorian Upper House favours the Labour Party by a large margin.
So you would expect the ALP to give their preferences to the DLP before the Greens.
So the issue is will DLP be able to get more votes than FF like they did last time.
Will FF gain votes because they have Steve Fielding in the Senate ?
I guess it’s to be expected but I’m amazed at the way commentators will make so much out of everything now there’s an election campaign underway. This whole ‘winning the day’ thing is bollocks – unless there’s a huge gaffe, nothing anyone has said this opening few days is going to have any meaningful impact on the day that matters, including, I suspect, the 34bn tax splash. This is theatre for us rusted-ons and politics junkies, and red-meat for the troops. So chill out, everyone.
Point out the facts Labor and state what workchoices has done to working families conditions….
Darn 774,
You might be right,however it would only have been 49.8 or 49.9%. Must have targetted the marginals very well.
Liberal Lawyers 70% and Labor Union Bosses 60%
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/10/day-three-are-70-per-cent-of-labors.html
Rudd defended Combet,Shorten and others in an interview yesterday,but I’m with you on this,run some ads to counter the negative.
Good article on why Howard and Costello just don’t get it and sums up a lot of ex libs real gripes;
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/putting-rent-on-selfinterest/2007/10/16/1192300769298.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Actually what would be good is to show Shorten and Combet in an ad -a) Shorten at the mine in Tassie helping working people and b) Combet helping asbestos victims… and then state do we need these people in parliament, people helping working people obtain better lives Mr Howard.. a postive ad with spin…
[Actually what would be good is to show Shorten and Combet in an ad -a) Shorten at the mine in Tassie helping working people and b) Combet helping asbestos victims… and then state do we need these people in parliament, people helping working people obtain better lives Mr Howard.. a postive ad with spin…]
And also that Shorten has an M.B.A. and knows more about how businesses function because he was also a unionist.
The anti-union arguments are lame. It is just the standard issue thing for the Liberals to do, propose tax cuts based on rubbery figures that would be killed off by a U.S. recession, and mount a scare campaign against unions.
The Liberals are running the ACME Liberal campaign. They are using the same material they used at the 1972 election.
I conducted one of my own completely non-scientific surveys today, just like CW, although my bellwether is a middle-aged man in the seat of Mitchell – of all places. He was mightily chuffed at the sound of such supposedly large tax cuts but somewhat disconcerted that they will take three years to kick in in full and won’t start until next July, under the proviso of course that Johnny and friends are returned. He didn’t actually pick up this bit of detail in the announcement. I mentioned that he’d once bitched to me about how nurses and teachers and plods are paid so badly and how money should be spent on public services, and how polls consistently say people want the money put into services rather than tax cuts, but true to form he asked why we couldn’t do both.
Needless to say he was reassured by Johnny’s announcement and will be voting accordingly. He was a bit thrown by the opinion polls a month ago but reckons his man is in now.
Granted, a Mitchell voter is not high on the priority list, but those waverers who might have chucked a donkey are, in the short term at least, back in Johnny’s corner.
Politics isn’t very difficult, is it?
Page and a half of letters in the local rag bagging Gary Hardgrave for his comments on the Sudanese…one letter in semi-support. Plus an article with the consensus that the Libs won’t even bother defending Moreton.
No surprises for regular posters, but fun to read it in the local news all the same.
“Actually what would be good is to show Shorten and Combet in an ad -a) Shorten at the mine in Tassie helping working people and b) Combet helping asbestos victims…”
And then we can have Kevin wet nursing the children of indigenous communities. Julia can apply ointment to the feat of lepers.
Been There (742)
“We’ll all be rooned said Hanrahanâ€
No apologies to Henry Lawson are needed. “Said Hanrahan” was written by “John O’Brien”, whose real name was Fr Patrick Hartigan.
Chaser mock PM, he goads Rudd:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22601336-5001021,00.html
Goanna (768 and 779),
I doubt that the DLP will pick up a Senate seat, though the ALP would prefer not to have to rely on the Greens and will have no difficulty in preferencing it if it is in the ALP’ interest, which it would be if the DLP preferences the ALP in seats like, let me guess, McMillan. However, Family First will outpoll the DLP in the Senate, and for the ALP surplus to then put the DLP ahead of FF would require a very specific result: the ALP surplus has to be less than the DLP’s vote, but enough to propel the DLP ahead of FF; e.g., ALP 44.9 (giving a surplus of 2), DLP 2.1, FF 4. Then the Liberal vote has to be 36.6 (giving a surplus of 8) to put the DLP ahead of the Greens. The Liberal vote might be low, but not that low. Obviously, micro-parties preferencing the DLP can push it ahead of the pack, as in Western Victoria. In any case, the ALP may regard preferences from FF as more useful to it.
FF has a far more extensive organisation than the DLP has. As I have posted before, the FF worker at the state election booth I was on last year said that 500 or 600 of his 800-member congregation had volunteered to help in the election. I doubt that the DLP would have that many activists in the whole state.
There is a more extensive discussion of the Senate at:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/585#comments
Howard tonight complained about cigarette smokers being treated like criminals.
Sounds like failed liberal candidate David Elliott of the Hotels Association has been in his ear about the drop in poker machine revenue from bans on smoking indoors.
Me, I’m a smoker of 27 years, tried Zyban, patches, gum cold turkey, no luck. Cigs are the one of most addidicative drugs around,even more addictave than herion, kill about 12,000 people per year and cost the health system billions.
Yet not a mention of tobacco in libs tough on drugs policy booklet mailed to every household at taxpayers expense.
When I started smoking about 27 years ago the cig companies were finding new ways to make them more addidictive, vapourising the nicotine so it hit the brain faster and harder.
I’d would like to see the government take on the tobacco companies for a settlement like they did in the USA.
Surely the donations they get from the tobacco companies and hotels assocaiation aren’t holding them back?
Howard is on a loser if he thinks he can win votes from smokers, most want to give them up.
Derek at post 701 refers to the nodding head in the background.
I’d noticed this myself in interview by pollies of all stripes.
They all seem to do it: Get a couple of Gofers to stand in the background and sagely nod their heads while The Great Candidate speaks his or her words of wisdom.
It must be some deep psychological thing.
It might be something to do with a “look, someone is listening to him” signal. Or perhaps it’s a subliminal Group-Think thing: “We agree with Bozo here, so you should too”.
Whatever.
It can be quite mesmerising.
I can’t help looking for a twitch or two or perhaps a raised eyebrow when Whoever-It-Is-That-Speaks comes out with the inevitable porky or dodges a question.
In order to prevent obsessive-compulsives like me minutely scrutinizing the Nodding Head for any sign of error, perhaps all parties should adopt the practice of having life-sized cardboard cut-out figures in the background whenever their Great Candidate speaks.
These could, of course, be fitted with those sprung nodding heads you used to sometimes see on little animal dolls in the rear window shelves of cars, so that the figures’ heads would just naturally nod away with the breeze throughout the Great One’s speech.
Just a thought.
Shakespeare said , “first kill all the lawyers”. There goes 70% of the front bench!
[Howard tonight complained about cigarette smokers being treated like criminals.
Sounds like failed liberal candidate David Elliott of the Hotels Association has been in his ear about the drop in poker machine revenue from bans on smoking indoors.]
Yet Howard had earlier said he was feeling sorry about Ben Cousins and then saying all drugs are bad.
Hypocrite.
The health lobby should crucify him with a million statistics and deaths plus 2nd smoking deaths and sickness. Smoking is one thing that if everyone stopped would save a huge amount of money in hospital and medical costs…eventually.
Costello left flummoxed as attack ads begin:
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22602259-5006301,00.html
“TREASURER Peter Costello was lost for words today when asked to explain his party website’s prediction of the amount interest rates would go up under Labor.
The Liberal website said that under a Labor government people could expect to pay $3276 per year extra on their mortgage, but Mr Costello didn’t know why.
Quoting from a 2007 Econtech report, the website said Labor’s industrial relations policy would push interest rates 1.4 per cent higher than they are today.
“This means working families will have to pay an extra $273 every month on their mortgage repayments,” it said.
But asked by a journalist to explain such figuring, Mr Costello didn’t have an answer.
“I would have to go and look at what’s on the website, and if I do I’ll give you the information,” Mr Costello said.
Asked again how the Government could say that mortgages were going up by such an exact figure, Mr Costello said: “You have asked me to have a look at it and see how it adds up. I’ll have a look at it and see how it adds up.”
Earlier this week, Prime Minister John Howard could not correctly answer what the Reserve Bank of Australia’s current cash rate is, saying it was 6.25 per cent when it is 6.5 per cent”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7vLu63tb1E