Possibly presaging a future pattern of early-week phone polls to tie us over until the Friday face-to-face, Roy Morgan brings us a phone survey of 611 respondents showing Labor leading the Coalition 59-41 on two-party preferred, and by 50 per cent to 36 per cent on the primary vote. Morgan alternated between phone surveys and larger-sample face-to-face polls until the end of August, after which it moved exclusively to face-to-face.
Maybe, maybe not. I doubt it will be significant though. If it is a significant vote changer, well I think this country is FUBAR (if you don’t know what that means, Google it).
(50) is NOT a comment written by me!!
Are the Govt Ads still running?, haven’t seen or heard any lately?
This could be a sign the election is imminent.
IMO Howard WILL recall parliament next week and they will attack labor on the spending promises they have made to get the focus back on management of the economy.
This is a laugh. The vote-a-matic:
http://www.news.com.au/feature/0,,5012863,00.html
Many of the questions are framed in a very negative light towards the ALP, thus steering people towards the Coalition point of view. But this is typical form for News Ltd. I guess there are still some in the company who haven’t seen the writing on the wall
How could the Government attack Labor on the spending promises? They’ve been passing out pork every day. I heard on radio that in the last 19 days, the Government has announced or re-announced $420m worth of spending EVERY DAY!!!
Sinic, wouldn’t waste my time with it. Remember the skewed results obtained by the Daily Telegraph during the NSW election? What a joke.
# 50 – If Rudd himself had made the gaffe, it would be worse for Labor… but even then, hardly fatal. (Everyone knows the ALP is against the death penalty.) The fact that it was McClelland who made the error (of timing rather than substancece) means that Rudd will just sail through it.
The Rodent must look at Rudd and think of the Picture Of Dorian Gray.
Re Aussiesmurf @ 2
Firstly, in only 2 elections in the last 20 years has the government received a swing towards them during the election campaign. 1993 and 2004.
However, in the past 5 elections, on 3 occasions the final result has differed by over 4% from the result achieved a month out from the election. In 1993 and 2004 the month out result was below the amount to eventually be recorded for the government, in 2001 the month out result was significantly higher than the result eventually recorded for the government.
What this means is that it’s of course possible we’ll see a large move back to the government as in 1993 and 2004. Whether this will be the 3rd such movement in 20 years is anyone’s guess.
#50
No problem: Rudd has admonished his minister, thus eliminating that wedge. Howard has written a new set of rules when it comes to wedge politics, and so far Rudd has played the game masterfully, to the endless disdain of the Coalition, who are just waiting for a wedge. I too am opposed to the death penalty, but if Rudd has to support it to ensure the redneck vote doesn’t fall in behind Howard again, than so be it. Whatever it takes to defeat the Coalition I say. So all in all, I don’t think there’s much of a possibility to shift votes.
So sorry to disappoint all my fellow Lefties, but when it comes to really vicious crimes, I’m not a very nice guy. In my opinion, the Bali bombers should not just be executed, they should die screaming in agony!!! McClelland was plain dumb to suggest otherwise.
Yes that is my point. Howard has not really announced any new spending, just rehashing previously announced policies and making them look new. While Rudd has agreed to all these announcements he has also announced additional spending and I think the libs will try and run a scare on it and back him into a corner for the campaign proper. Why else would they recall parliament?
[Do you think the issue could win votes for Labor? My guess is that it would be 50/50 in terms of Australians who believe inthe death penalty.]
I think a small majority of Australians actually support it by about 55 / 45. I don’t have any recent figures to point to, but I recall a few years ago figures of that sort being bandied around by some of the tabloids.
It is a credit to our political system that it was banned by nearly all states and the commonwealth in the mid 1970s.
Democracy doesn’t simply mean majority rules.
There’s also CHOGM – 23/25 November, in sunny Uganda.
“force majeure” (an unforeseeable and uncontrollable event – for example, a war or a strike – that exempts a party from a contract).
is the Word of the Day that’s just been emailed to me – maybe howard’s hanging out for one.
# 60 – Sinic, if you read carefully what Rudd has said on the matter, he isn’t supporting the death penalty at all. It just sounds like that…which is very John Howard of him.
He has said that any government he leads will never advocate to save the lives of a single terrorist. Which is basically saying, we will lobby governments to get rid of the death penalty but won’t mak submissions on behalf of individual foreign citizens.
Love the boy’s work.
yes, sinic, howard’s met his match.
[Which is basically saying, we will lobby governments to get rid of the death penalty but won’t mak submissions on behalf of individual foreign citizens.]
We are a signatory to international conventions banning the death penalty. So another thing he could do is use the external affairs power to legislate to make it impossible for any state or territory to ever reintroduce the death penalty. Thus making it impossible for the Liberals to ever use as a wedge issue.
Alexander Downer, Alexander Downer, stop playing politics with peoples lives, we are sick of your self interest wedge politics. McClelland has said one thing, Rudd has said another. Rudd is the leader of the party, that is the party policy, you opportunistic imbecile. For the record, me personally, I am in favour of the death penalty.
Morgan 59/41. I hope they are right. You never know, the others might be wrong.
Re: “The Narrowing” – I spoke to a senior labour MP several months ago who said that when they were in government they felt they could get 1% for every week of the campaign back from an opposition.
We didn’t go into the reasons behind it, but I think it seems a generally reliable trend towards the government as people who don’t really care about politics figure they might as well stick with the devil they know…
Snakeboy, #23: “The SMH is reporting that Howard’s planning to go to the Pacific Islands Forum next week. He wouldn’t do that in the first week of a campaign…which suggests that he’s planning to be away from parliament for its redundant final sitting.
Has he gone mad?”
You have to wonder. It makes no sense in terms of preparing for the election, nor in calming his troops, nor in anything, really, apart from playing Statesman John again. Maybe that’s all he cares about now….
Lets not forget that Mark Latham came out strongly in 2004 for the execution of the Bali Bombers and little good it did him. This is very much a side issue and should have little or no effect on the polls
Lord D at 61: I don’t think that was a very well though-out statement.
Back to the topic: as Possum said on his own site…
“Single polls are getting hard to blog on for every poll just because there’s nothing that can be said that hasnt already been said a hundred times.
“Government rooted, again… Clock counts down to annihilation day†has basically summed up every poll in isolation since February.I can see why the journos are having trouble producing copy on poll commentary.”
Keep ’em coming, is all that I’ve got to say.
[He wouldn’t do that in the first week of a campaign…which suggests that he’s planning to be away from parliament for its redundant final sitting.
Has he gone mad?â€]
That is becoming a possibility. Mark Vaille in the P.M.’s chair would let Rudd have a field day.
If I was a Liberal member with anything less than a 10% margin I would go ballistic if I had to go to Canberra for a week or possibly two to do sweet FA, when my oppenent is busy “working” my electorate.
If I was in a marginal seat regicide may cross my mind.
Morgans poll results will be reflected in next weeks Newspoll. Morgan often picks up the early trend, as noted on this site previously. Voters will respond in spades to a clever and cynical PM who is simply playing games. (Issues of the death penalty are side issues – and ,anyway, Rudd has staked out populus ground).
It now looks like a December election. Every day delayed is a coffin nail. The polls will not “narrow” during the campaign. They could even “widen”. Queensland will swing decisively to Rudd. The ALP is running a very effective local campaign. MacPherson is close. Leichardt is gone. Ryan is gone( on not just the local by-pass issue). Longman is gone – along with all coalition marginals in and around Brisbane. This will be a once in a generation election. It is over.
William,
It’s not on the West’s website, but there was a front page story about Colin Barnett getting stuck into Costello blaming him for the Libs not winning the State Election. Also there was a State Westpoll as well.
Can you do a post on it ?
well, he IS old. possibly some atherosclerotic plaques have dislodged and travelled north.
[The polls will not “narrow†during the campaign. They could even “widenâ€. Queensland will swing decisively to Rudd. The ALP is running a very effective local campaign. MacPherson is close. Leichardt is gone. Ryan is gone( on not just the local by-pass issue). Longman is gone – along with all coalition marginals in and around Brisbane. This will be a once in a generation election. It is over.]
This is good therapy that is helping me to recover from last night’s nightmare – Howard returned by 7 seats.
It was one of those terrible dreams that feels completely real. 😐
Nick Minchin is “Surprised” at criticism of the possibility of Parliament sitting next week: http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/09/2054972.htm?section=justin
“We are the true fiscal conservatives, and it is pretty rich for the Labor party to claim to be fiscal conservatives,” he said.
“Just look at their record, whenever Labor’s been in power federally, they blow the budget and drive it into deficit.”
Keep hammering the same lines Minchin; it hasn’t worked so far but it might just work today!
ShowOn, I have had a few of those nightmares too! You know you’re sad when you start dreaming about the election.
Yep. Howard is delaying the election because deep down, beneath the denial, he knows he will lose, and wants to extend his diminishing tenure in the job.
Its kinda pathetic really. I also predict he will either:
a. emerge far too early on election night saying its “too early” to know the result, or
b. flatly deny the obvious wipeout at 10pm, though he’s 20 seats off the pace, claiming “we’ll have to wait to count the postals”
…to avoid the humiliating public concession. He’s really is that kind of tool.
From LP:
[FDB on 9 October 2007 at 10:06 am
24th Nov.
From a WA Lib senator’s mouth.]
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/10/04/election-speculation-8/#comment-409853
Frank: What are the betting markets looking like? If they end up suspending betting then we’ll know…
At what point does the Governor General call the election without Howard’s request?
Minchin should keep his head down during the campaign, lest he be asked about the extensions to WorkChoices that he promised the HR Nichols Society the Coalition would impose should they be returned.
Does anyone think that John Howard and Peter Costello accusing Kevin Rudd of supporting the so-called ‘Bali Bombers’ (as heard on News Radio) will backfire?
Frank at #82
Trust me, the last person to know what John Howard’s thinking/planning/doing would be a WA Lib Senator.
Eggleston? Lightfoot? Johnston? Ellison? Corman? Adams? Not a political operator’s a**ehole amongst that lot.
The only Senator in the whole place who might know what’s going on would be Minchin! WA Lib Senator’s will be much like the rest of us, awaiting the Pollbludger to announce it for us.
[Does anyone think that John Howard and Peter Costello accusing Kevin Rudd of supporting the so-called ‘Bali Bombers’ (as heard on News Radio) will backfire?]
I reckon it has the potential as it will remind people why the Bali Bimbers did it in the first place – Australia’s involvement in Iraq.
Andos, it won’t backfire; McClelland did blunder by suggesting the Bali bombers shouldn’t face the death penalty. I definitely support death for them, and a painful one at that.
The PM has ten days to call the election after Parliament is dissolved. Parliament expires on 15 Nov, so the PM has to call it by 25 Nov at the latest. If not, then I suppose the Gov-Gen would do it.
PassThePopcorn, the blogs on the Advertiser/Adelaide now site are mainly anti the death penalty, this is something thats important to me so i was pleased with how few rednecks were there last time i looked.
[ShowOn, I have had a few of those nightmares too! You know you’re sad when you start dreaming about the election.]
This was my first, and hopefully last one.
[“I think it was a very strange time for the Labor Party to come out in support of the Bali bombers,” Mr Costello told reporters in Perth. – Peter Costello]
How on earth does saying someone should “rot in jail for the rest of their lives” constitute “support”.
This is the standard Tory operating procedure, accuse any and everyone on the left of supporting terrorists.
I hate to be the one to say this, Frank, but the Bali attack occurred five or six months before the invasion of Iraq.
It does seem like a pretty crude attempt to smear Labor… surely most Australians can see through that.
Further, wouldn’t it also seem to appear that they’re exploiting the emotional impact/legacy of the ‘Bali Bombings’ for a purely party-political wedge in the interminable lead up to an election?
#85 – I think the ALP has Minchin on tape, promising the H R Nicholls froth-at-the-mouth brigade that WorkChoices II would make sure the low paid get nothing at all. Should make a great ad.
# 70 – Lom, was there ever really a “Statesman John” outside his own brain?
Frank – good tip on The West Australian’s bagging of Costello today. Obvisously the former Liberal Leader isn’t a fan of Costello. I was in WA when John Howard had is problems with the WA Liberals.
How is Costello going down in the West? My WA friends would be scathing of a Melbourne lawyer PM (and probably a Qld diplomat). Keep us posted on how a future PM like him is going.
Tactically, I think the comments about the Bali bombers are the worst thing I have heard from the Labor campaign all year, it is incredibly off-message and I must admit when I first read about it I could not believe Rudd had approved it. It was a scary reminder just how all over the place Labor has been over the last decade. It is nothing but negative for Labor, in my view.
Interesting hypothetical re Howard going overseas for the Pacific Islands Forum.
Could the Acting Prime Minister ask the GG to disolve parliament and issue the electoral writs?
The mood in Australia at the moment seems similar to that in Spain in 2002. I agree that McL should have kept his head down (and I am actually sort of surprised that Rudd isn’t vetting major speeches, or at least having them run by him). But I don’t think that the electoriate is in the mood to be manipulated about terrorism when there are clearly domestic political concerns behind it.
In a strange way the death penalty issue keeps Labor in charge of the agenda and sucks air from the Govts campaign. Get’s Rudd back in front of the camera again and maybe a short clip on the news.
Silly issue to raise at this time, don’t the speach writers/staff keep abreast of the issues?
The death penalty is something that many Australians are both for and against at the same time. Philosophically against but then for it when the emotions get involved over some event . It is a complex mental battle.