Advertiser Boothby poll

Adelaide’s Advertiser newspaper today carries a slightly curious poll of voting intention in Boothby, held for the Liberals by Andrew Southcott on a margin of 5.4 per cent. Conducted by phone from a sample of 649, it shows Southcott leading Labor candidate Nicole Cornes by an improbable 49 per cent to 32 per cent after distribution of the undecided. No two-party result is provided, but commenter Matthew Sykes has transcribed the paper’s large volume of generally unilluminating data from the poll throughout the previous comments thread. No doubt the Advertiser’s pollsters do their best, but my mind is drawn back to the final week of the state election campaign last March, when it ran a poll showing the Liberals neck-and-neck in Norwood and set to retain Hartley. Labor went on to win the seats with respective margins of 4.2 per cent and 4.6 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

516 comments on “Advertiser Boothby poll”

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  1. Ruawake that still leaves open ads below 250,000 once again looks good but you look at it closer and it fails and who decides what rules the AG will use to determine what is in and whats out…

    Pauline once again you have lost an argument for resorting to low based politics by name calling it doesnt serve your side of politics and demeans all those who agree with you i would cease your baseless attacks on me because it ads nothing to political debate and wastes Williams bandwidth.

  2. 497
    Possum Comitatus Says:
    September 28th, 2007 at 12:20 pm
    Morgan has the ALP primary at 54%

    are you sure? it is early and the site is crashing on me, I can’t confirm this. what does that make the 2pp?

  3. omg I thought you meant 54% for TPP and I was stressed!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Thanks goodness I re-read it, I feel much better, lol, what is TPP?

  4. Glen, I applaud you for your courage in coming here and commenting on bad polls. If it was Labor in this position, I’d stay very far away from blogs.

  5. No it wont because it is probably rogue LV…i hardly think it will rate a mention aside from the fact it shows a trend of the ALP above the 55-45 mark…

  6. @ 497 David Charles Says:

    #485 John Withheld [Because why would your enemies lie about you?]
    Because those on the ‘other side’ like Ridout are adversaries to Gillard’s policy positions but they are not necessarily enemies unless personal hatreds come into play.

    I am intrigued by your original statement and so I will rephrase my question.

    Why would you expect a person’s adversaries to NOT misrepresent or mischaracterise that person?

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