Advertiser Boothby poll

Adelaide’s Advertiser newspaper today carries a slightly curious poll of voting intention in Boothby, held for the Liberals by Andrew Southcott on a margin of 5.4 per cent. Conducted by phone from a sample of 649, it shows Southcott leading Labor candidate Nicole Cornes by an improbable 49 per cent to 32 per cent after distribution of the undecided. No two-party result is provided, but commenter Matthew Sykes has transcribed the paper’s large volume of generally unilluminating data from the poll throughout the previous comments thread. No doubt the Advertiser’s pollsters do their best, but my mind is drawn back to the final week of the state election campaign last March, when it ran a poll showing the Liberals neck-and-neck in Norwood and set to retain Hartley. Labor went on to win the seats with respective margins of 4.2 per cent and 4.6 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

516 comments on “Advertiser Boothby poll”

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  1. I live beside Boothby and most of my mates live there. Labor’s selection of Cornes was an absolute disaster. She’s been successfully stereotyped by the Libs as a bimbo and the local press call her Candidate for Booby, after a revealing dress she wore to the Governor’s retirement function. This is a seat that the ALP have squandered.

  2. Well someone should point out that the Liberal vote is soft, people are just saying they will vote Liberal, but don’t actually mean it and that internal polling shows Labor will win comfortably. (Does internal pollling mean tenderly asking yourself who you hope will win?)

  3. Boothby was probably always a long shot anyway for the ALP. As long as they win the 3 marginals in SA, that’ll probably be enough.
    You never know, Sturt might be more of a prospect. I believe the Labor candidate in that seat is quite impressive, and I’d dearly love to see Pyne get knocked off.

  4. This is another example of the real power of the press,they get to choose what the story is to be, and what stories to ignore. This story provides them with an opportunity to spin an “image over substance” narrative which they can weave into other election issues.

  5. The Liberals dodged a bullet with this seat, Labor shot themselves in the foot im sure there would have been a good non-union official candidate to run against Southcott and win on the big swing in SA…regardless of how small this sample size is you’d expect Labor to be ahead…maybe Labor’s overall lead is overblown too…one can only hope!

  6. [Labor shot themselves in the foot im sure there would have been a good non-union official candidate to run against Southcott ]

    WTF? Are you saying Nicole Cornes is a union official!? You really have swallowed the Liberal playbook whole.

  7. ShowsOn you misread my post im afraid…

    i said that “im sure there would have been a good non-union official candidate to run against Southcott” in other words someone like Nicole Cornes only with some sort of political experience/background…but obviously they couldnt and now they are stuck with a dead loss…i never said Cornes was a Union-Official i was saying the ALP could of found a non-Union official better than Cornes to run in Boothby

  8. [i never said Cornes was a Union-Official i was saying the ALP could of found a non-Union official better than Cornes to run in Boothby]

    She may still win the seat, in that case, you will be wrong.

  9. Glen, this presumption that it is poisonous to be a union official is totally baseless. Union officials by the nature of their job negotiate with business leaders. Politics is similarly a job based around negotiation, hence they natural marrying of skills and hence the history of ex union officials making a good contribution to public life in Australia. Furthermore, being a union official at some point in your life does not make it your life’s sole purpose.

    If the issue is a lack diversity in the background of ALP members then you would also have to be critical of the cabinet because it is almost entirely composed of lawyers. Howard, Costello, Abbott, Bishop, Ruddock & Hockey (who was also a political staffer before being elected) to name a few.

    At the end of the day, this anti union rhetoric may appeal to the conservative base (of which you are a member) but your average shmoe couldn’t give a stuff about it, especially given that the vast majority of employees in this country are saved the anguish of having to negotiate their own terms at work, because a Union does it for them, pro bono. It’s a third rate argument – hence the fact it is only at the 5th campaign that it has been raised as a major issue.

  10. The swings could be in Labor safe seats lol then Southcott would easily hold Boothby against a second rate candidate…

    Dario i suppose you are referring to the inflated polling figures in which at least half or more of Labor’s 20 odd point lead is soft…even you should be skeptical of figures like that they rarely happen in reality…

  11. WTF were labor thinking pre-selecting this woman???

    Is it too late to change the candidate? Could she come up with a mystery illness or something and withdraw???

  12. according to SportingBet:

    Seat of KINGSTON – SA
    Amanda RIshworth – ALP 1.05  
    Kym Richardson – LP 8.00  

    Seat of HINDMARSH – SA
    Steve Georganas – ALP 1.05  
    Rita Bouras – LP 8.00  

    Seat of BOOTHBY – SA
    Nicole Cornes – ALP 2.00  
    Andrew Southcott – LP 1.70  

    Seat of ADELAIDE – SA
    Kate Ellis – ALP 1.08  
    Tracy Marsh – LP 7.50  

    Seat of WAKEFIELD – SA
    Nick Champion – ALP 1.33  
    David Fawcett – LP 3.00  

    Seat of MAKIN – SA
    Tony Zappia – ALP 1.30  
    Bob Day – LP 2.80  

    Seat of STURT – SA
    Mia Handshin – ALP 2.65  
    Christopher Pyne – LP 1.45  

  13. But at least she’s never voted for the other side like Cornes has and at least she was a member of the Party when she became a candidate unlike Cornes again…

  14. [But at least she’s never voted for the other side like Cornes has and at least she was a member of the Party when she became a candidate unlike Cornes again…]

    “She” also happens to be a fundamentalist wacko who’s absence will only improve parliament.

  15. ShowsOn, if the electorate voted for her because that’s what they like about her, then good for her.

    Picking the right candidate for an electorate is sometimes hard and the ALP haven’t done themselves any favours in Boothby.

  16. This is all a lot of tosh. Once the campaign starts everyone will focus on the national campaign and the party leaders, and in suburban seats local candidate factors won’t matter very much. If there is a big swing on across Adelaide, Boothby will go with the flow, whether the ALP candidate is good, bad or clinically dead.

  17. And I think Adam maybe right about Boothby if there is a large general swing. I am reminded of the seat of Swan Hills in the WA state election in 2001. The Jaye Radisich was preselected because the usual ALP candidate for this fairly-safe Liberal seat forgot to nominate. Much was made of her not winning, but come the election & Gallop’s overall win, she won on 52:48 2pp. Once elected she then built upon the vote (54:46 off 45% primary).

  18. Cornes’ selection was the brainchild of Kevin Foley, a political lightweight if ever there was one, when Labor thought the seat was not winnable.

    I’m not sure what the basis of Cornes’ glamor status/selection was other than being the second wife of Graham Cornes (famous AFL football personality).
    That alone would be enough to alienate members of the ‘first wives club’ and their fellow travelers and given the demographic of the seat it’s a bit like running Sheik Hilaly in Wentworth.

    Cornes’ mismatch highlights the digressed theme of union official candidates in that if a party makes a selection on considerations other than merit they will not maximize their vote. This may not be an issue in Port Adelaide where a union secretary may even enhance the vote, but in the now marginal seat of Boothby the accident prone Cornes is a serious mismatch.

  19. “The electorate tends to be able to smell out a fraud”

    I doubt that very much, they voted Howard in again and again. Don’t underestimate the power of t’s and a! She is a 50/50 in winning the seat. Your photo alone probably counts for 10% at any election, local, state, and federal.

  20. Howard Hater, do you live in Adelaide? If so, stop whinging and go and help the campaign. If not, send some money. In any case, if you’re going to be spooked by one day’s blackguarding of a Labor candidate in the Murdoch press you’re not up to much. We’ve got weeks of this to go yet, so get used to it. It’s time for loyalty and some testicular fortitude. Nicole may be a bimbo (I’ve no idea), but she’s our bimbo and you should support her regardless, so there.

  21. Mrs Cornes is by all accounts quite personable and charming in person, so will most likely have an impact on those she does actually talk to. The problem in Adelaide is she is well-known for being the wife of Graham Cornes, the inaugural coach of the Adelaide Crows.She engenders much debate amongst the people I have talked about it with. A posthumous reflection will be the only way we will truly be able to call this one. BTW William, I was the one writing the Boothby figures in the other thread, not Matthew Flinders, although I do work at Flinders 🙂

  22. I think this slagging off of Nicola Cornes is totally missing the point and slightly unpleasant. She is not a bimbo or anywhere near that. Nicola Cornes may not appeal to Labor voters but that is not who she is aiming at. I heard her first radio conference and what this ‘disaster’ was is that she did not want to answer questions on policy because she had only just indicated she would run. Because this is not the usual form for a politician she received a full out attack from the ABC. The trouble was that to most ordinary people not talking about policy until you are up to speed on it seems reasonable enough, and the call-in after the ABC attacked her was actually quite supportive. Boothby takes in areas that would never vote for a traditional ALP candidate and the Advertiser poll, like most political stuff it does is not worth a thing. She may not make sense to political insiders, but then not a lot of what has gone on this year has.

  23. I am indeed very tribal, AC, and make no apologies for it. If Howard Hater wants to get rid of Howard, he/she has to get with the program. I don’t care if Cornes can’t count to five, she’s had the courage to do something to get Howard out, and she should be supported.

  24. This article really is very poorly written. Within the space of two very small columns on the front page they made two very sloppy mistakes. Firstly, they quoted the 2pp as 54-24, obviously it was meant to be 54-46. This one I can forgive perhaps as a misprint, but the second one is just rediculous. According to the Advertiser this increases the 2pp from 5.4% to 8%……. errrr no! The whole story is then based around the premise that the Libs were expanding their lead in Boothby against the state trend. If this poll is accurate the lead has decreased albeit slightly in relation to the rest of the state. This is very poor journalism even by the Advertiser’s standards

  25. Howard Hater may discover that he/she might actually miss Howard when he is gone. Sometimes it is like that with a parent figure. John Howard has been around for a long time, and many young people have grown up with him, and known no-one else as Prime Minister. A lot of this Howard hating business is just a stage of teenage rebellion that most grow out of when they learn more about the world.

  26. Most of the comments about Nicole Cornes sound very sexist to me.

    A couple of weeks ago, Andrew Southcott was on PM answering questions about politic parties using automated phone calls to voters:

    ALEXANDRA KIRK: The sitting member, Liberal Andrew Southcott, perhaps predictably, is critical of Labor’s phone call blitz in his seat.

    ANDREW SOUTHCOTT: Well, look, it highlights the flim-flam (phonetic) of Rudd Labor, that they’re more into PR stunts and celebrity and not about substance.

    ALEXANDRA KIRK: But of course you’d be aware that in 2004, in the election, the Prime Minister did the very same thing.

    ANDREW SOUTHCOTT: Um, and what he did was he made phone calls on behalf of local candidates, but no one has ever accused the Prime Minister of not being about substance.

    Full report is here
    Mr Southcott has been member for Boothby for over 11 years and he gives answers like this. Perhaps Ms Cornes isn’t so bad after all.

  27. I’m with Adam (probably after this morning in the other thread he wont want me but I’m a tough girl). Speaking of tough girls and feminism there is a fascinating article at the top at salon.com well worth a read.

  28. As I said in another thread, Humphrey B Bear could win Boothby for the ALP. 😉

    Cornes as an opposition candidate got to be interviewed on radio, a big plus. Matt Abraham asked her about ALP policy on IR and she fumbled, so what. At least she scored some points.

    Good on ya Nicole, if this is the best they can do against you.

    Did the advertiser poll other seats? I wonder if women hate the member for Mayo?

  29. The people of Adelaide know Nicole Cornes as a ‘celebrity’, here you are a celebrity if you are married to a(n ex-) footballer, and have been subjected to a weekly newspaper column of her personal opinions for years, a lot of people did not like this column, so unfortunately people may already feel they know her, as an unknown quantity she probably would have done a lot better.
    I

  30. Adam, I think quality of candidates does matter. Having an exceptional candidate will clearly increase the swing towards you, having a complete dud will act in reverse. If people have doubts over voting Labor due to the local candidate, those doubts will persist on polling day, as the candidate’s name is written very clearly on the ballot paper.

  31. at least the voters of Boothby know the name of who they are voting for, i bet theres a few who dont lol.
    anyone who is slagging Mrs Cornes for a couple of interview stumbles has no idea of what it’s like, especially in the beginning in front of a camera or mike, i spent years when i was having a camera shoved in my face or a mike thrust at me, believe me it’s terrifying, after quite a long time of peace at a recent filming for part of a series i shook, i would say for the pollies it would become part of their normal persona after a while, but for a raw chum– well it’s stupefying, i eventually turned myself into a robot, i’d flick the on switch, say my piece and firmly press the off button, having cameramen chase you down the street and reporters putting their own words in when you refuse to speak isnt something to be envied believe me!

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