Galaxy: 56-44

The latest Galaxy poll, published in today’s News Limited tabloids, shows Labor’s lead easing imperceptibly to 56-44 from 57-43 last month. There has also been a one point exchange on the primary vote, with Labor down to 46 per cent and the Coalition up to 40 per cent.

Sept 24
56 44 46 40
Aug 27
57 43 47 39
July 30
54 46 44 41
July 2
55 45 46 41
June 4
53 47 44 42
May 14
57 43 49 39
April 23
58 42 49 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

548 comments on “Galaxy: 56-44”

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  1. Holy shite! Just read the latest poll thingy in the SMH. Time to pull heads in, kiddies. This is too good to be true. Deep breath, go to bed.

  2. Could this be Howard’s next “Rabbit” aiderd and abetted by his loyal servant Keelty ?

    [AUSTRALIANS must adapt to a post-September 11 environment in which police are required to prevent acts of terrorism long before their intended execution, the federal Police Commissioner has warned.

    In a speech in Adelaide last night, Mick Keelty said new laws might be needed and courts would need to develop ways to consider evidence and sentences in cases where the crime was at an “embryonic” stage.

    “The rise of terrorism and its implications for international security have placed the AFP in a policing environment that is as much about crime prevention and deterrence as it is about arrests and successful prosecutions,” he said.

    “The courts are going to need to change the way they view evidence, witnesses and forensics. [They] will be dealing with larger numbers of … crimes that are prevented at a very embryonic stage of execution. Sentencing in this environment could become problematic, at least in the early stages.”

    Mr Keelty said terrorism posed new challenges because – unlike traditional crimes such as armed robbery – police were legitimately expected to prevent the crime from occurring.

    “If someone were to ask whether the police could stop all armed robberies in Australia within, say, 12 months, I’d tell them it’s not possible,” he said.

    “But what the Australian public is asking us to do is stop a terrorist attack from happening. It’s a challenge of immense proportions, requiring us to change the very way we work; how we gather intelligence for evidence; how we decipher information and determine what is, in fact, ‘intelligence’.”]

  3. Frank @ 453: Good gods. So what, the problem with Haneef was that they arrested him before he started having criminal thoughts?

    Seriously – after that utter disaster, they’d actually let Keelty out to talk about this stuff?

  4. On election day I will be at my booth at 4am to beat the Liberals putting up bunting and signs in all the best spots. The Liberals generally turn up about 8am, lazy sods. Then I spend all day handing out HTVs. Then I scrutineer, which usually goes till 9 or 10pm. Then it’s off to the glorious victory party, where I make a point of eating Labor Party food which squads of old Labor ladies have spent all day making. It would be very insulting not to.

  5. [Sounds like Keelty wants the courts to be able to put people away for owning a bag of fertilizer and being muslim. Farging crazy]

    And owning Sim Cards given by friends who no longer need them as well.

  6. Why isn’t anybody jumping up and down about Comrade Julia being a heartbeat away from the Prime Ministership?

    Didn’t Dubya give John some nuclear codes to look after?

    “Labor’s deputy, Julia Gillard, rated only 7 per cent but still beat Peter Costello, who scored 5 per cent.”

    This poll must have been taken before we knew about the dodgy ticker that Rudd has.

    Very scary red-headed stuff indeed.

    Are we likely to get Pauline in the Senate looking after us?

  7. Is Turnball delusional or what ?

    [But pushed by ABC Lateline interviewer Tony Jones tonight, Mr Turnbull said he believed Mr Costello would succeed Mr Howard, although the final decision ultimately would be up to the party room.

    “I have no doubt that Peter Costello will succeed John Howard and he is eminently qualified to do so,” he said.

    “His demolition of Kevin Rudd last week was an indication of the type of fire power he brings to a leadership role in the Liberal Party and for the government and has done for 11-and-a-half years as treasurer.”],25197,22477401-12377,00.html

  8. Fine, I will settle for an ankle bracelet with a beeper on it.

    Nafe, do calm yourself. The Deputy Leader of the ALP does not have an automatic right of succession. No-one from the Left can ever be Leader of the federal ALP. If Rudd were PM and were to fall under the proverbial bus, the Caucus would elect a new leader, who would come from the Right.

  9. Adam, you are worth your weight in gold to the ALP. (not a small amount it seems, with all that heavyweight ALP tucker on election night.)

    You obviously live in an ALP electorate, explaining all your victory parties. Is this a feature of all safe ALP electorates?

    Do they also provide numerous bottles of beer to wash down all that food with? How about enough to drown your national sorrows? Do they also transport you home?

  10. Adam, what the hell is an ankle bracelet going to do? ASIO should earn their damn money and surveil people they suspect of these things.

    Tim, only muslims are terrorists or didn’t you get the memo?

  11. Tim, how many Christians, Buddhists, Hindus, Jews or Sikhs were involved in 9/11, the Madrid bombings, the London bombings, the Bali bombings I and II, the Jakarta bombings? None. I accept of course that not all Muslims are terrorists, but nearly all terrorists are Muslims, certainly all terrorists likely to be blowing things up in Australia. Policing must take this fact into account.

  12. Re: 462

    Mr Calabrese, Mr Turnbull is not delusional at all.

    He is merely stating an undeniable fact: that the leadership of the Liberal Party is ultimately up to the party itself. Why should Turnbull be forced by a media, fond of engaging in infantile games, to “rule out” challenging the leadership, when no-one can predict the future political climate or the feelings toward certain members in the partyroom? It is the right of any party member to challenge for the leadership if they believe they have the requisite support.

    Turnbull is under no obligations to be held to ransom by the media who frequently like to play “gotcha” rather than examine the policies of the parties in any significant detail.

  13. Latest Nielsen poll at

    ALP 58%, Coalition 42%
    Primary votes – ALP 50%, Coalition 37%

    “The sample of 1425 voters was drawn from an online panel of about 90,000, and weighted to reflect the population. The Nielsen election eve Online poll in 2004 was within one per centage point of the election result.

    Mr Rudd’s approval is at 61 per cent. The PM’s disapproval exceeds his approval — 49-43 per cent.”

    Blimey. No wonder the PM doesn’t want to call the election.

  14. Adam, anti-terrorism departments should take it in to account in terms of surveillance, but not courts. If the majority of murderers in this country were found to be anglo-saxon, should that mean that less proof of murder should be needed in court to convict anglos?

  15. I think its interesting to see SA which used to be a Liberal rock turn Red, thank god WA is still Blue and Queensland, NSW and Victoria will be purple with Tassie coming back Red and NT probably going Red this election soon…

    Must have to do with the state of the Liberal Party in SA…they’ll need to have a lot of soul searching if we dont win the election…i dont buy the mantra by the Laborites that the Liberals will win State elections soon after if Labor wins federally…

    The State of the Parties in the State/Territory Parliaments show that in each case the Liberals are at least 2 or more elections away from winning if not more…we will be a ‘one party state’ for some time if Howard loses…so much for accountability oh well!

    ALP 55 Lib 23 Nat 9 I 1

    ALP 52 Lib 22 Nat 13 I 6

    ALP 59 Lib 8 Nat 17 ON 1 I 4

    ALP 30 Lib 18 Nat 5 I 4

    ALP 28 Lib 15 Nat 1 I 3

    ALP 14 Lib 7 TG 4

    ALP 19 CLP 4 I 2

    ALP 9 Lib 7 AG 1

  16. Adam- trotsky was a communist and i am no communist… You obviously do not know the difference betweeen communism and socialism..
    Yep another Labor member who believes in nothing.
    What do you want labor to do in government Adam?
    Fair dinkum.
    Maybe you can tell us about your escapades and Canberra because i love big noters…
    Ask yourself why we have such a large debt and terrible currant account deficit Adam…
    And why your at speak to many workers in this country working long hours and who are working casually and than ask who introduced casual work in this country… and whether Labor will do anything about it…

  17. Adam #472

    I have just been for a meal at a (refurbished) Chinese restaurant that was firebombed and virtually destroyed a few year’s ago by members of the Australian Nationalist Movement.

    The restaurant staff, locals and neighbours were terrified.

    The terrorists were not Muslims.

  18. # 446 Mike Cusack Says:

    ‘Seriously, though. Everyone should have a go at manning a booth for the party of your choice, it is a tremendous learning experience’.

    So it is, Mike. And encourage the youngsters to a stint. They love it!

    My first experience at handing out was as dolled in beautiful and expensive suit and heels. Discarded the duffle coat for the occasion. The Libs gravitated automatically. Shocked they were that I was Labor. Encourage the beautiful youngsters to hand out. Subsequent experience tells me that people are persuaded by such conviction.

  19. You’re right rcandelori. The fact that it pretty much matches every single other poll in the country for the past 6 months also completely ruins that poll’s credibility.

  20. rcandelori, It was not an open online poll, but a targeted one. The demographic may increase the bias, but its nothing like an open poll on et. al.

  21. #480 – “The fact that it is an online poll totally demolishes any credibility it might have had.”

    Why? Because you don’t like the numbers?

    If it’s representative of the population it is as legitimate as any other poll.

  22. Gosh I am being attacked from left and right simultaneously, what fun.

    Marky, a Labor government will repeal WorkChoices. Don’t you read the papers?
    Watch and learn.

    Dario, yes of course I am talking about surveillance, not sentencing or standards of evidence. The AFP and ASIO must use their limited resources to watch those groups most likely to commit terrorist acts. That means young Muslim males.

    Paul, if I thought locking up all Muslims would prevent terrorist acts, I’d be all for it. Don’t look so shocked – we locked up all Germans in 1914 and again in 1940, and quite rightly. However, I don’t think that, and nor does anyone else.

  23. “I accept of course that not all Muslims are terrorists, but nearly all terrorists are Muslims,”

    Uhh, Tim McVeigh? Biggest single fertiliser bomb ever in the USA.

    I think you might have over reacted there a little, Adam.

  24. [Dario, yes of course I am talking about surveillance, not sentencing or standards of evidence.]

    Fair enough Adam. Keelty is sounding like he wants to go a lot further than that though, and you can bet Pauline Hanson will be totuing those sorts of policies come the election.

  25. Adam @ 472: And the muslims who blew up the Murrah Building in Oklahoma City? Oh wait, no, not Muslims. And the ones who shoot and bomb abortion clinics? Nope. And the anthrax mailings, for which there were no arrests? Or the Sydney Hilton bombing? And as noted already, the loony racists who love terrorising anyone insufficiently white?

    If either side of politics think national security means “watch those muslims carefully, and no-one else is a threat”, those people need to be run out of town on a rail.

  26. Adam #472

    > but nearly all terrorists are Muslims

    This is simply uninformed. I suggest you could begin broadening your mind by reading about the Tamil Tigers for a contemporary counter-example.

    And the word ‘terrorist’ is rather fraught and easily used for rhetorical purposes. I would suggest using the word ‘criminal’ might take a lot of the over-reaction out of the discussion.

  27. That was 12 years ago, and we’ve never had far-right crazies like that in Australia. We do have active cells of Muslims planning and supporting terrorist acts in the name of jihad, as everyone with half a brain knows, and as will no doubt come out in court fairly soon. ASIO and the AFP quite rightly now spend most of their time keeping tabs on these people.

  28. [Uhh, Tim McVeigh? Biggest single fertiliser bomb ever in the USA. ]

    Also, consider that the KKK is a terrorist organisation according to U.S. federal law. I thought it was funny that Howard said members of the Australian army were “letting off steam” when they dressed in KKK garb. I wonder if he would’ve said the same thing if they were dressed like Al Qaeda or Ja’mai Islamia operatives?

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