Galaxy: 56-44

The latest Galaxy poll, published in today’s News Limited tabloids, shows Labor’s lead easing imperceptibly to 56-44 from 57-43 last month. There has also been a one point exchange on the primary vote, with Labor down to 46 per cent and the Coalition up to 40 per cent.

Sept 24
56 44 46 40
Aug 27
57 43 47 39
July 30
54 46 44 41
July 2
55 45 46 41
June 4
53 47 44 42
May 14
57 43 49 39
April 23
58 42 49 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

548 comments on “Galaxy: 56-44”

Comments Page 11 of 11
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  1. Is that all Adam.. and besides people on Australian workplace agreements will have to wait until the agreements finish before change… Please tell me Adam what Labor means these days…
    As said another member of the Labor Party who believes in nothing… Oh i pay my membership fee to play Simon says…
    At least i speak to struggling working people Adam… and some are not impressed..
    Adam i love debating with you because your none another than a marketing spokesperson for the party.

  2. William. Maybe the Nielsen online poll needs a new thread.

    Ok. There are questions being raised about the methodology and reliability of this poll.

    It sounds like this might be a perfectly good way to poll, with allowance made for demographics using a large database of possible participants.

    Does anyone have a link for an explanation of how the polling was done?

    Was there really such a poll that was so accurate on election eve 2004?

  3. William, at risk of breaching the unsung rules of political correctness, Muslims are not a racial group with any particular nationality. They subscribe to Islam.

    My comments are not intended as discriminatory – it is merely a fact.

  4. Wind power will never be enough… i think we need to look at hot rocks.. geothermal power and we have a lot of it and solar energy because Australia is such a sunny environment.. but again putting solar panels on roofs involves giving households free power and our governments do not want to do that.. They want the revenue…

  5. Where can we discuss the end of Nationalist bombings and the rise of the Muslim threat?

    Perhaps you need to moderate a forum with multiple threads.

  6. Nice to see you in, Mr Candelori. Feisty OzPol days seem a long time ago. Glen has been soldiering on with the hide of an elephant. His mates have mostly melted away, like snow on the rock.

    Much has changed, but not the TPP numbers it seems. How goes the restaurant?

  7. Where can we discuss the end of Nationalist bombings and the rise of the Muslim threat?

    At some other website whose subject matter is not psephology.

    To be fair can you delete Glen’s comment at #505 also.

    Fair cop. Done.

  8. More State Bashing by Howard.

    [JOHN Howard is preparing to confront the states over the TAFE system if re-elected and will consider directing funding to private trainers to deliver change.

    In an intervention designed to force the states to offer more on-the-job, online and at-home training outside the TAFE classroom, the Government has warned states that failing the reform test will have funding consequences.

    The latest state-federal power grab could underwrite a new era of entrepreneurial TAFE providers and mirrors recent federal interventions in areas of state responsibility such as the Tasmanian hospital system and funding for seatbelts in school buses. It would also drive an anti-union overhaul of employment arrangements in the TAFE system to encourage the use of individual contracts.

    In an interview with The Australian, Vocational and Further Education Minister Andrew Robb warned that the message to the premiers was: “If you don’t change, we will go around the states.”

    “We’re going to be very hard-nosed about it,” he said. “There’s an urgency about it. (TAFEs) are heading in that direction but it’s at a snail’s pace and the economy is in overdrive. It’s really reform or be overrun.”

    Mr Robb said the reform agenda would include “flexible employment arrangements”, including Australian Workplace Agreements. ],25197,22476832-11949,00.html

  9. Re 516

    But Tim, again the ALP squeals about ratifying Kyoto when it has been a categorical failure of epic proportions in attempting to reduce global emissions.

  10. Re: 520

    Dr Good, what difference does it make?

    Signing Kyoto won’t solve the world’s problems. It is an outdated, irrelevant agreement that has seen emissions increase rather than subside in almost all cases.

    Endless blather about its ratification is futile. Practical solutions rather than fruitless symbolism is what is needed.

  11. If we sign up to Kyoto 1 we will get voting rights, and be taken more seriously in forming Kyoto 2 and in any other discussions about how to proceed globally.

  12. To all those who support Kyoto perhaps they can tell everybody how many countries that have signed it will fail their responsibilities…Kyoto is not going to stop climate change…nuclear power might if we have the guts to debate it sensibly in this country.

  13. Kyoto wasn’t ever designed to solve the world’s problems. It was only meant as a first step to show everyone we were serious about Climate Change. You have to crawl before you can run. By ignoring it we’ve given the non-Western nations an out. Why should they do anything if the West isn’t even willing to take this first step.

    None of the critics of Kyoto have any answers. Just more of the ‘do nothing’ brigade.

  14. Re: 523

    Dr Good, how can you possibly say that any Kyoto signatory can be taken seriously when the vast majority of them failed to meet the requisite targets? Indeed, the only country that has some credibility is Australia – it will meet its agreed targets without even signing Kyoto.

    In the end, your argument is a furphy. Just because Australia failed to sign an agreement in the past, does not mean it lacks influence or capacity to sign another agreement in the future.

  15. Glen

    The more we debate nuclear power the less likely it will be to help with global warming.

    Something needs to be done soon.

    If Australian wants to start cutting emissions by 2020 then there is no point talking about a technology which will not be usable until about 2030
    (talking, setting up the framework, local polls on locations, detailed planning, 10-15 year’s construction, …). Then there are about 10 years of operation (if running smoothly) just to make up for the extra emissions caused by construction.

    Then you are stuck with it for 50 years to pay off the costs of decommissioning and waste disposal and all the time the ruddy stuff is getting more and more expensive as teh world runs out of uranium. IAEA estimates about 70 year’s from now at current rates.

    etc etc

    just no point

  16. Re: 525

    But Paul, why bother with symbols when there are opportunities to create new, meaningful treaties that adequately account for all nations, particularly the USA, China and India.

    Indeed, the only argument that the left ever makes is that Kyoto was designed as a first step. Well the world has moved on from 1997. The first steps have been taken and they failed catastrophically by any objective standard. Thus, the very notion of signing Kyoto, a practically dead treaty, is demonstrably nonsensical.

  17. rcandelori 523

    You believe Australia will meet Kyoto requirements. Signing up will give us the right to contribute to the new treaty. So sign up now. It’s a no brainer.

  18. rcandelori,

    Your whole argument is really just to disguise the fact that the right wing in Australia and America would rather do nothing. There is no reason why you couldn’t go along with Kyoto and still do all the other things you claim would be better. The end result is you just don’t take Climate Change seriously. Howard and Bush are against doing anything about Climate Change and all the other arguments about why Kyoto should be ignored are just hot air to disguise their true intentions.

  19. Adam 92

    ‘Gosh I am being attacked from left and right simultaneously, what fun.

    Marky, a Labor government will repeal WorkChoices. Don’t you read the papers’?

    Adam, dear boy. Be of stalwart heart. It’s pretty clear that the attack mice are uninformed.

    Have they or the MSM actually read and understood the ALP Forward with Fairness policy? Do they understand the first thing about documents or policies? It seems unlikely.

    They do go on about the most irrelevant things. AWAs will continue. Intake of breath! Yes, for a little while. In certain forms. Because. Not forever, unlike the alternative.

    The ten points underpinning new arrangements. Any chance the mice may read them?

    Allegations that there are no policy differences are wilfully and intentionally misleading.

    Not to worry. The voters get it. As Spotlight et al have noticed.

  20. Re 530

    I’ve not seen any material that blocks countries from committing to a new agreement unless they’ve signed the Kyoto Protocol.

    That doesn’t make any sense.

    Re 531

    Paul, never have I argued that we should do nothing. The government has spent billions on several initiatives. There is more to do, still.

    I despise the logic that suggests that because one doesn’t support Kyoto, they are not serious about climate change. What’s next? If you don’t support the lenient sentences for criminals, you’re not serious about law and order? If you don’t support welfare, you’re not serious about poverty?

    The fact remains that the nations of the world must pursue a new agreement that accounts for the reality of the situation and promulgates practical solutions. Kyoto has achieved nothing of the sort – emissions have risen in most cases: so Australia’s signature would be tantamount to support for a worsened greenhouse state.

    Paul, the point is that there is hope beyond Kyoto.

  21. [I despise the logic that suggests that because one doesn’t support Kyoto]

    rcandelori ,

    Is faking outrage the best you can do? It’s pretty obvious for a whole bunch of reasons that the government is not serious about Climate Change and it’s attitude to Kyoto is just one straw in the haystack. If going against Kyoto was the only thing they did which I didn’t agree with I wouldn’t have a problem but it’s just one example of the government’s “let’s pretend to do something but really do nothing’. Howard is not serious about Climate Change and we all know it so let’s not pretend to be shocked or offended.

  22. 437 Derek Corbett Says:


    Jeez, that was a full-on rant’.

    Assuming yours is a response to my post.

    It is all very well to state one’s snap opinion as to the outcome of this election. I do the same. My post, though, attempts to articulate my reasons. Put forward what others are saying, perhaps not mentioned, a little unexpected. People may be interested. Or not. Information.

    The point, I think, of this site.

  23. 536 Frank Calabrese Says: September 25th, 2007 at 4:12 am

    WA Polling info mentioned earlier is by Crosby-Textor and is in the Government Gazette, so you can make what you will of it.

    So now the GG relies on super-secret polling to tell everyone it’s doing great.

  24. Am I right to think that if the 2PP vote in WA by this poll, is 51-49 then there has been a swing of 5% to the ALP given it was 56-44 2PP in 2004. If it isn’t happening in Cowan and the Libs have a swing to them in that seat and they also quote Stirling is on their radar then there must be a reasonable swing to the ALP elsewhere. What am I missing here?

  25. The last time the Libs leaked “positive, we’re in front” polling info was about Eden Monaro and Morgan came out with a poll that said 62-38 to Labor.

    I’ll believe it if they allow the Possumator to test the data.

  26. One of the few policies that the Libs had going into 1996 and which they have followed through on is to wind back multilateralism and promote bilateralism in foreign relations. UN bashing has long been a favourite pasttime of Howard’s.

    In this context, “practical solutions” is code for “we’ll do whatever we like, we won’t let others tell us what we should do”.

    Unfortunately for the Libs this isolationist stance played better in 1996 than in 2007, and on the issue of climate change, which everyone except the wingnuts recognises to be a global issue, is positively counterproductive.

  27. And while I try to keep most of my comments focussed on the political impacts of such matters rather than on their intrinsic merits I will note that it is wrong to say that the Kyoto Accord has been a complete failure: while few countries will meet their targets almost every singatory has made substantial reductions in emissions compared to the ‘business as usual’ scenario, and the issue is now firmly in focus for the international community.

  28. Why not use a little free enterprise to solve the hosting costs of William?

    Some people here are too verbose, and should attract a bandwidth usage levy.

    I am prepared to make a donation to sponsor the discussion of middle eastern terrorism.

    Celebrities, voted on through onsite polls, could decide whether they wished to make any sponsorship payments.

    Rather than restrict anything on what is a good site, we should find ways of expanding it.

  29. Nafe, please stop whingeing about my moderation decisions. There are literally millions of places on the internet where you can discuss whatever you like without me having to accommodate your every whim. You do have half a valid point here though:

    Why is Kyoto a more worthy discussion topic than terrorism?

    I quite often tell those discussing this topic to take it somewhere else, but this was at the fag end of a thread nobody else was reading and, most importantly, it was not descending into an argument like the terrorism discussion was.

  30. Nafe just give up on the middle eastern terrorism. Surely you can find somewhere else to discuss that to your heart’s content as its definately not what I, or I suppose many other people, visit this website to see.

    In fact, I deliberately steer clear of blogs that discuss that subject matter.

  31. Ah ja, ich bin endlich gekommen! Der Krieg ist verloren, weiteren Widerstand zu leisten hat keinen Sinn… Wir strecken die Waffen. Es ist aus.

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