Phoney war dispatches: anti-climax edition

• The Prime Minister tells us we can “rest assured” the current sitting of parliament will proceed to its conclusion, which means no election announcement until at least September 20.

• On Tuesday, Canberra’s WIN Television News reported of an internal poll – apparently from the Liberal Party – which pointed to a Labor win in the renowned bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro. Yesterday, we heard that the Prime Minister had used polling from that very same seat to sell the party room the idea that the election could still be won.

• Labor has been making hay from the Liberals’ apparent lack of preparedness, with candidates still to be chosen in 14 seats including marginal Labor Banks. And can anyone out there solve the mystery of the Liberals’ number three Senate position in Western Australia? This has been a winning prospect at every election since parliament was enlarged in 1984, yet the candidate’s identity is either yet to be decided or a closely guarded secret (UPDATE – It now emerges the candidate is Michaelia Cash, industrial relations lawyer and daughter of state upper house MP George Cash).

• Further Labor pot-stirring in the west, where an ad placed in yesterday’s West Australian raised questions over the political future of Julie Bishop, Education Minister and member for Curtin. The ad referred to “speculation” Bishop would be drafted into state politics to replace floundering Opposition Leader Paul Omodei. This idea was first mooted in the immediate aftermath of the Court government’s defeat in 2001, when Bishop was party to an ill-considered scheme to swap seats with an uncooperative Colin Barnett.

The Mercury reports of a Galaxy poll gauging opinion on the West Tamar pulp mill, conducted on behalf of mill opponents Investors for the Future of Tasmania. It finds 41 per cent opposition from a national sample of 1004, and 21 per cent support. An implausible 64 per cent of the former group said it would affect the way they would vote. The Mercury also speaks of a Wilderness Society poll which found 53 per cent opposition in Bass and 35 per cent support.

• Melbourne election buffs with $66 to spare might like to make note of a seminar being held this evening, Election 2007: Polls, Damned Polls and Democracy!, starting from 6.15pm at the Westgate Room on Level 41 of the Rialto South Tower. Speakers include Nick Economou from Monash University, Gary Morgan of Roy Morgan Research, Tony Douglas of Essential Media Communications and Charles Richardson of Crikey, all brought to you by the Australian Market and Social Research Society,

• Lest anyone think this site’s readership is a representative sample, Sally Jackson of The Australian reports that radio listeners have “turned from news talk to music during the past two months”. Station bosses blame “a heavy news cycle dominated by stories on interest rate rises, the APEC summit and the ‘phony’ federal election campaign”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

440 comments on “Phoney war dispatches: anti-climax edition”

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  1. All this talk of Howard and his power walking is passe. The Libs need to get a new theme. The “Energizer Bunny” has run its race.

    I suggest a montage of John and new best friend Peter scaling the “Monkey Bars” will impress the electorate no end.

  2. Re (300),

    Chris B Says: “Rupert 282. You obviously didn’t follow my link on the word “elite” earlier on. Otherwise you would not have said that about the US president. He rates less than 30% according to nearly all the polls. He is the most hated president ever.”

    Chris, boy do you ever have that right. Bush gives a bad image to the world of Americans. I have had some Australians come up to me since I arrived in Oz in December 2004 and ask “why did you guys let this man loose on the world?”. My only response when I get this question is the same each time. 1. I explain politely that I didn’t vote for him personally and I can’t understand those who did and 2. I apologize on behalf of my country of birth.

    There was someone on this blog earlier today (don’t remember which thread) who said words more or less to the effect of “Howard will haunt me for the rest of my life”. I could say exactly the same about George Bush too.

    I am ashamed to be American when the leader of the USA is such a #(*$)(&#*$(p#u*$)(#*$)(#*(#)*$)(#*$)(# [and you Aussies think Howard is bad, GB broke the mold folks] :(:(:(:(

  3. Today as I was strolling around Collins St, I was thinking of Rupert and him wanting to ban Public Servants from voting and I though what is a Public Servant, meaning where do we draw the line after all if we banned all Public Servants then that means the following wouldn’t vote

    Teachers, Nurses, Doctors, Allied health care Professional, Police, Army personal, Firefighters, Ambos, Public Transport drivers, Builders of Roads, Reserve Bank etc.

    Then what about those whom work for Companies that are State owned but private like Australian Wheat Board or Telstra then what about those whom work for companies that gain Govt contacts.

    Point being where do you draw the line, for I can’t think of an Industry that isn’t directly or indirectly Govt supported.

    Now Rupert may say that he was only referring to those employed directly by Govt, but if Govt didn’t have contracts which needed servicing then who would have a job for the Economy is depending on Govt.

    By the way what do we say to those people whom change jobs from direct Govt to Private are they any more deserving of the Vote.

  4. Yes, I did watch the youtube of that comedian, but still, he is a comedian.

    Some comedians are crass and vulgar for the purpose of laughs.

    So what? Not as if a news anchor said it.

    And as for this new Australian Julie, you can’t expect to transform a feral liberal left-winger American into a patriotic Australian.

  5. #62 Call the election please Says:

    ‘Oh come off it Glen… do you really think Howard is going to sit back as a humble backbencher? No chance’!

    Glen. Backbench = Exit Kiribilli. Unless Costellos and the Australian people and the electorate of Bennelong are ‘kind enough’ to allow him to remain for the duration. Or invite the Howards back for meals. Back to suburbia and Hawkes Nest, otherwise. Might find the landscape there has altered since the ’90s.

    And if Costello were the non elected PM? Prior to the election. Not good look to move to Kiri HQ. Would emphasise the may I say, weasel.. until my children er grandchildren are educated.. line. Or could be, until Richard is PM. Does Kiribilli have a granny flat? Maybe the Lodge could substitute.

    And Rupert, what is your view of President Clinton?

  6. Says Glen: “I can hardly think of any…God help us if Rudd goes under a bus if he wins because who’ll be there to pick up the pieces…”

    Careful what you wish for Glen, the ALP could yet resurrect Australia’s greatest ever reform-minded treasurer and PM – the great Paul Keating. Maybe Keating could be installed in Wentworth (I think he lives in the electorate). George Newhouse could shift to the senate (after he knocks over Moneybags).

  7. Rupert, you will find comedians rate more than newsreaders in any country. And he is a top comedian. Rupert you would not qualify as a patriotic Australian. Just another Frank Burns. Although you probably wouldn’t understand that. Julie is more Australian than you ever would be.

  8. [ you can’t expect to transform a feral liberal left-winger American into a patriotic Australian. ]

    So typical of Howard’s mob to accuse anyone they don’t like of being unpatriotic. According to these people voting for Rudd is like voting for Osama. No wonder the Liberal Party is headed for extinction.

  9. Frank, thanks for that link to the WestAus `West could save Howard`s bacon`. As is correctly pointed out, Coalition gains in WA would make it very difficult for the ALP to get over the line. For that matter, Coalition gains anywhere, ditto.

    What the article fails to point out though, is that neither polling nor money, nor indeed commonsense suggest that this is probable. According to Portlandbet, the most `marginal` seat at the moment in WA is Canning(still `notionally` coalition) – ie. Labor 2 seat gain.

    If the coalition are hanging their hat on the slim majority the ALP holds in WA polling (translation – we`re not getting a complete belting here yet), they really are grasping at straws.

  10. To be patriotic you have to care about Australia and Australians. Where does that put Howard? AND his Cabinet who let him assassinate Australia?

  11. Paul k

    Answer me this question….

    Does Osama Bin Laden want us to pull our troops out of Iraq?
    If the answer is yes then why is KR pulling our troops out?

    I’ll admit that from the beginning Iraq was not a terrorist hot spot but the fact remains it is today…

    I’d like to hear abit from from Rudd on how he is going to conduct a phased withdrawal of 500 combat troops when only recently their number had to be increased to secure their protection in their roles…put simply they are either all in or all out…Rudd should have the courage to say this but he is spineless…

    I think it would be funny if Howard won and then said ‘this is the sweetest victory of them all’ lol what a homage to Paul Keating lol

  12. mrs g has been invited to a research group discussion about…….(held in qld,sa,nsw) next tuesday

    how do you feel about P Costello and

    what policies are best for the future

    and why would you vote labor (what policies/personalities,time for change etc)

    will let you know full content next week

  13. On Morgan (and I may be repeating myself here – if so, apologies), Morgan seem to be the best “first impressions” pollster.They pick stuff up earlier than the other pollsters but at a cost of exaggerating the magnitude of poll movement- in their Face to Face polling anyway.They tend to move with the issues of the day.

  14. # 116 ruawake
    We’ve already said
    So long
    Since you gotta go, oh you’d better
    Go now go now, go now (Go now)

    Bugger! Youv’e revealed my long held secret campaign song!

  15. You’ve got to love The West. A 51.6 – 48.4 lead to Labor in WA is a 7% swing from the last election and would certainly see at least two seats go to Labor in WA (and you’d think a third would be well on the cards out of Canning or Kalgoorlie or even perhaps Forrest).

    For WA to save the Coalition’s bacon they would need it to be 44-56. At least.

  16. [ Paul k

    Answer me this question….

    Does Osama Bin Laden want us to pull our troops out of Iraq?
    If the answer is yes then why is KR pulling our troops out? ]

    Glen,

    Answer me this question…

    Didn’t Osama Bin Laden say several times before 9/11 that he wanted the US to invade a middle east country? If the answer is yes then why did Howard follow Bush into this quagmire?

  17. 308
    Chris B Says:
    September 13th, 2007 at 8:34 pm
    Rupert, you will find comedians rate more than newsreaders in any country. And he is a top comedian. Rupert you would not qualify as a patriotic Australian. Just another Frank Burns. Although you probably wouldn’t understand that. Julie is more Australian than you ever would be.

    Thanks :):):) … that means a lot

    ROTFLMAO though at the Frank Burns image 😉

  18. i dont know how Julie Bishop performs, i’m always mesmerised by the wide open eyes and glinting teeth, i dont think she has got an expression– just the eyes and teeth.
    one fantastic side bonus if Rudd gets in– we’ll no longer have to put up with the useless inept Hawker as speaker, Rudd should ban dorothy dixers,{ but he wont} their a waste of time, Howard’s lot use them to the extreme and all they’re their there for is to bait the opposition.

  19. 303
    bmwofoz Says:
    September 13th, 2007 at 8:17 pm
    Today as I was strolling around Collins St, I was thinking of Rupert and him wanting to ban Public Servants from voting and I though what is a Public Servant, meaning where do we draw the line after all if we banned all Public Servants then that means the following wouldn’t vote
    Teachers, Nurses, Doctors, Allied health care Professional, Police, Army personal, Firefighters, Ambos, Public Transport drivers, Builders of Roads, Reserve Bank etc. any more deserving of the Vote.

    What about our greatest public servants? The members and senators of the HOR and the Senate? They who serve us.

  20. Let’s not get into a slanging match with Rupert. Not a pretty site. (pun intended)

    Rupert you made a point earlier about respect for the Prime Minister. I think we’d all acknowledge the concept of respect for the OFFICE of Prime Minister. To me this means that if he walked into the room suddenly I’d stand to be introduced and shake his hand and make the right polite noises. And if I saw him pressing the flesh in Rowe Street at Eastwood I wouldn’t run up shouting about kids overboard and chuck my half-eaten wonton at him. Just because he’s the PM, and yes, the office commands respect.

    But to extrapolate that to somehow stifle comment, debate, satire and even outright abuse in various fora is too long a bow.

  21. #319 well spotted Mr Q, ALP 2PP in 2004 in WA was 44.6%. Apparently the 7% swing to the ALP, according to recent polling, is a cause for optimism. Says it all really.

    Glen,

    don`t mention the war.

    Headquarters

  22. Glen. How many of the Coalition of the Willing are left?
    Answer: Hardly any. Spain gone. Italy gone. Poland going. UK going. And others have gone. About all that is left is US Australia and I think Honduras or some one from around South America.

  23. Frank,

    Thank you.

    There needs to be an ALP Karaoke Pack for election night. And, that will certainly be in it.

    Another one I like is a chant whenever another Liberal mounts the tumbril for concession (execution).

    Nah, Nah, Nah, Na
    Nah, Nah, Nah, Na
    Hey, Hey, Hey,
    Good Bye…

    Repeat amd repeat.

  24. Though there wasn’t a trace of blue in the sky, it seemed that the worst of it had passed. Some of the sailors were below decks getting some shut eye, many were huddled in corners, cleaning brassware overzealously and speaking in hushed tones about the storm, the likes of which hadn’t been seen for years. Yet, except for the aft mast, there was little obvious damage.

    Some pondered what would happen if another storm of that scale hit with their two courageous leaders at the helm. What if they both went? One tentative sailor of lowly rank ventured,

    “Of course, there’s Petty Officer Bigchop, they say she can see into mens souls, you know”
    “So, what does she see?” Queried another
    “Football, sex and sheds mostly” he replied before continuing, “She sees into the future with the return of ancient mariner’s skills to a golden age when sailors knew about history and geography, tying ropes and learning the nutritional benefits of spinach”
    “Yeah, these young sailors, it’s all sextants, dragoons and pitch and roll!”

    Though when they saw her on the forecastle speaking loftily to another officer, she seemed distant, peculiar and very unlikely to watch the cricket. They shook their heads, as if snapping out of a strange dream

    “Of course, there’s always that Ol’ coot up the crow’s nest Turnkey!”

  25. [ Chris B if 5 people all jumped off a bridge would you just follow them over?? I doubt it… ]

    And yet Howard followed Bush in jumping off the bridge.

  26. I’m just a bit concerned that Glen is talking about jumping off bridges. It’s all a little sumliminal but I urge you, Glen to seek a counsellor if these urges persist.

  27. Campaign song for John Howard:

    ‘When I walk down the street (boom boom boom)

    See the people who stop and stare and say
    Haven’t I seen that face somewhere a long time ago

    When I walk down the street,
    See the stranger who says, “Why, Hi,”
    With a, “How you going, Buddy,”
    When you walked on by I thought I’d say hello

    They say:
    Haven’t I seen your face before
    Weren’t you the boy that used to live next door,
    Weren’t you on television ev’ry night
    Haven’t I seen you round

    Take a look at me, I’m YESTERDAY’S HERO,
    YESTERDAY’S HERO, that’s all I be.

    Take a look at me, I’m YESTERDAY’S HERO,
    And YESTERDAY’S HERO, is all that I’m gonna be
    If I don’t get together,
    Make a new start and be somebody better,
    All that I’ll be if I don’t get together now.

    When you walk down the street, now,
    If you know me,t hen pass me by,
    If you wonder what I’m doing don’t ask me why,
    I don’t read the news~

    When you walk down the street,
    If you’re sorry then don’t feel bad,
    If you followed my story, then just be glad,
    You ain’t in my shoes

    Because,
    Haven’t you seen my face before,
    Yes, I was the boy who used to live next door,
    Yes, I was on television ev’ry night,
    Haven’t you seen me round.

    Take a look at me, I’m YESTERDAY’S HERO,
    YESTERDAY’S HERO …’

  28. Julie,
    you have my heartfelt sympathies. I always feel bad for the Americans (the majority apparently) who are tarred with the Bush brush and are then reviled by the rest of the world who can’t stand the jerk.
    But according to John Howard and Alexander Downer, if you don’t support the idiot then you must be anti-american.
    Must be confusing for you.

  29. Is there any truth to the rumour that the great Angels classic, with full crowd participation, will be played on the last day parliament sits this year?

  30. Jen,

    I must be the lady who belongs to no country then? 😉 … seriously though, the only reason I still have USA citizenship is that 1) I wasn’t required to renounce it to receive Aussie citizenship [although had I needed to, I would have] and 2) I can vote the moronic parties out in both countries 🙂

  31. Boll at 340
    “Is there any truth to the rumour that the great Angels classic, with full crowd participation, will be played on the last day parliament sits this year?”

    What, Dolly’s going to play ‘Love Takes Care’ to Johnny?

    Remind me not to eat :mrgreen:

  32. Rupert Says:O my bleeding heart!

    Pretty pathetic really. Because when you take away all the veneer of actually standing for anything (as we’ve seen in the last week), there is a single core value that remains in the core liberal supporters such as yourself. Hate.

    It’s the only thing you know. It’s the only thing you understand.

  33. [WARNING: Contains language which my not be suitable for workplaces, or sensitive ears ]

    Bugger, they covered the norti bits with sounnd effects.

    Glen:

    [In the event of a Liberal loss i say bring back the good old United Australia Party, Joe Lyons, Robert Menzies, Artie Fadden those were the days…..]

    So does this mean you’ll be voting for Pauline then, who has taken that name for her comeback ? 🙂

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