PRIME Minister John Howard is under pressure to call the federal election quickly, after the release of boom economic growth figures that threaten to push interest rates higher by November. Despite another horrendous opinion poll this week showing a potential election wipe-out, Mr Howard yesterday appeared to hint he would go to the polls sooner rather than later. Political pressure on him to do so has been intensified by the latest GDP figures, which show the Australian economy has been growing at its fastest annual pace for three years … With an increased prospect of an interest rate rise in November, many in the Government – which has staked its re-election hopes on its ability to sell its economic credentials – will be wanting the election before the inflation figures come out on October 24, or at least before the Reserve Bank board meeting to be held in early November. That would mean a polling day of October 20 or 27. An October 20 poll would have to be called in about 10 days.
THE Senate Finance and Public Administration Committee was in Cairns yesterday conducting its inquiry into the Commonwealth Electoral Amendment (Democratic Plebiscites) Bill 2007. This dry piece of parliamentary advice masks an intensely political exercise and explains why John Howard will not call an election the moment his APEC fiesta shuts down next Sunday. The legislation is the stunt law that Howard pulled out of his box of tricks to drive a wedge between Labor leader Kevin Rudd and his fraternal Queensland Premier Peter Beattie … The committee reports on Friday and the Senate will debate the law next Tuesday, when it’s expected to be passed, in time for plebiscites on Beattie’s amalgamations likely on October 20.
THERE was speculation last night that Prime Minister John Howard could delay calling the federal election until November or even as late as early December. Yesterday, Mr Howard gave his strongest hint yet that the election date would not be held in October after declaring that the federal takeover of the Devonport Mersey Hospital would not occur until November 1. Mr Howard said the Tasmanian Labor Government had agreed to the terms of the handover of the hospital in the state’s north and that the documents would be signed between the two governments on that date. Senior Liberal insiders said it would be wrong to assume too much from the announcement, but said a later election was now a genuine possibility. “Nobody knows the date except the Prime Minister, but you would have to think a later election is now a good chance,” a senior government figure said.
A Canberra insider told me today with absolute certainty that the election would be announced on 13 September. I was told that Howard does not believe he can cut through the political disengagement that has grown up with the last 8 months of pseudo-campaigning. Howard needs a circuit-breaker. In whispered tones, it was also suggested that Howard would rather go to the polls now than face a leadership challenge from Costello, Abbott or Downer – apparently an almost certainty if the Coalition’s poor showing in the opinion polls continues for much longer. According to my source, there would be a longish seven week campaign designed to test Kevin Rudd in the reality of campaign politics (and hopefully expose some Rudd flaws and gaffes). The election would be on 3 November 2007. Living in Canberra, I often hear these (so called) insider rumours. Rarely do they prove true.
Crikey:
Tips and rumours: The election date will be Nov 3. This is based upon the bookings made with Australia Post for mass mailots by the coalition – including in Bennelong. The Coalition recently cancelled their November mailouts and have maintained October ones.
BV, sport doesn’t necessarily help. In the last mid-term US elections, there was a knife-edge US Senate race in Missouri between a Republican incumbent and a Democrat. When the St Louis Cardinals won the baseball World Series a week before the election, I thought it would push the Republican over. However, the Democrat won by 3%. As to sport, Go the Melbourne Storm! Hopefully, we can win the NRL title this year after coming so close last year.
Lord D
That’s a good point. Though I would think Howard might just be at the point of taking anything he can get to help him.
Also:
Go the Storm! They’re looking magnificent I must say. A team of young superstars. And with my Wests Tigers out, they’re as good as anyone to support.
I fully expect there to be at least one more Wedge-Tailed Rabbit pulled from the increasingly tatty hat. Plus rivers of ca$h flowing in all marginal directions.
Matt D (34), on election day in 2001, I went to two weddings, the second of which was full of Lefties gathered around the TV at Clovelly Bowling Club. It was still a fun wedding, but the result did put a bit of a pall of gloom over proceedings. Hopefully Charlie’s (1) 21st won’t have that problem.
BV – I can’t see the Wallabies providing Howard with many tracksuit wearing possibilities. Leaving aside that our national rugby team is a bit of a joke at the moment (and so unlikely to lift “Bill” on 20 October), rugby only commands the interest of a pretty small segment of the population – it is the “second code of the second code” if you like. While it’s less true than it once was, rugby is still largely a private school Sydney North Shore game – you can bet if the Rabbitohs win the NRL (or, say, Geelong win the AFL) it will garner a whole lot more column inches than a RWC win.
Still, with the polls as they are, a Wallabies win on 20 October might help secure the base, and keep seats like Warringah, MacKellar, Berowra and Mitchell safe!
Hugo,
The 1996 poll was on my sister’s wedding day. Personally I was glad of the distraction, as otherwise I would have been moping in front of a telly somewhere.
Did make for a few heated discussions at the reception though!
Agree on all counts Hugo.
I am trying to rack my brains to think of what kind of wedge Howard can wheel out at this point and I keep coming up blank.
Yes, BV, it’s hard to see what Howard can do now, except take defeat with a little dignity. But remember, none of us saw the Tampa coming, nor for that matter 11 September, so I shall remain nervous until I see JWH concede on election night. The vampire is never dead till you put the stake right through his heart.
Lord D: Goldstein is becoming a prosect for Labor? If so, the landslide is well and truly on.
If the polls stay the way they are(55:45), I think the ALP could win 6 seats in N.S.W alone(Parramatta, Lindsay, Eden Monaro, Dobell, Patterson, Page AND maybe Bennelong). If a big swing is on, Greenway and Macarthur will go too over to the Labor side.
Theory: a desperate Howard promises a referendum on the return of capital punishment/the death penalty to reingage the “One Nation” voters”?
Charlie, having a big bash on election day isn’t necessarily a bad thing – my wedding next year is booked for council election day, if it’s any consolation. If things swing your way, it’ll make the night that much better (even if half of the party is huddled around the telly getting their Antony Green fix); if it doesn’t… does your place have a swimming pool? 😛
Don’t you mean Prime minister Bonsai i.e. a little bush…
Tom.
What about ” the US Alliance is at risk because Kevin and George disagree on Iraq. And George likes me the best anyway. So there.”
I am assuming that Mr Rudd is organised enough so that the shortest allowed campaign wouldn’t catch him off balance, and spewing policy in all sorts of directions in a Latham like way?
Yeah, capital punishment wouldn’t be a bad wedge- but he’d need a catalyst – a Port Arthur/Martin Bryant type event. He couldn’t just pluck the issue out of the air. (Too late to arrange a Port Arthur type event for Mr. Howard! :))
Another word on my earlier theory of Howard taking the October sitting weeks and calling a 1 december poll – as desperate and pathetic as it would be, the October sitting weeks could provide the opportunity for Howard to pull the legislative wedge rabbit out of the hat, but it also might see a switch to turbo in attacking Rudd – parliamentary privelege seems like a great cover for smearing the opposition leader and an increasingly desperate Government (particularly Downer and Abbott) might see this as being worth the risk of a backlash. Just a thought.
Jasmine,
Rudd’s policies are ready to go, no question about it – I doubt anyone in the ALP learned the Latham lesson better than Rudd.
“referendum on the return of capital punishment/the death penalty”
I’ve been toying with that idea, but I would think it would need a longer period to cook up the case (ala, a murder trial with a huge public profile or having a “report” to pin the issue to, like the NT intervention [which Crikey is apparently reporting today was planned by Brough a YEAR ago]).
I am thinking there may be something a-brewing behind the scenes at APEC –
a US-Australian treaty to be announced (possibly relating to nuclear power/weapons, which has been gestating for a while)?
Oh this is a good look for Howard and Bush:
Sept. 6, 2007 | On Sept. 18, 2002, CIA director George Tenet briefed President Bush in the Oval Office on top-secret intelligence that Saddam Hussein did not have weapons of mass destruction, according to two former senior CIA officers. Bush dismissed as worthless this information from the Iraqi foreign minister, a member of Saddam’s inner circle, although it turned out to be accurate in every detail. Tenet never brought it up again.
Nor was the intelligence included in the National Intelligence Estimate of October 2002, which stated categorically that Iraq possessed WMD. No one in Congress was aware of the secret intelligence that Saddam had no WMD as the House of Representatives and the Senate voted, a week after the submission of the NIE, on the Authorization for Use of Military Force in Iraq. The information, moreover, was not circulated within the CIA among those agents involved in operations to prove whether Saddam had WMD.
From salon.com
Will anything cut through the sheer boredom the public is showing for Howard?
It seems that Paul Keating is following things closely at the moment. He is very much hoping that Maxine knocks off Howard in Bennalong.
{Asked if Mr Howard could lose his seat, he said: “I hope so. I am always optimistic. It’s a big ask for Maxine McKew.”
Asked whether watching Mr Howard lose Bennelong would be his sweetest moment of all, Mr Keating said: “It would rival it.” }
Keating doesn’t think that there will be any leadership challenge.
{Mr Keating said it was too late for the Coalition to change leaders, and that Liberal heir-apparent Peter Costello did not have “the bottle” to tap Mr Howard on the shoulder. }
It’s good to see that the old “Rapier” tongue is still sharp.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22370600-11949,00.html
{And he resumed his long-running argument that Mr Costello’s reputation as a strong Treasurer was undeserved and that the good economic times were the result of Labor reforms.
“He (Mr Costello) has presided over easy economic times,” Mr Keating said.
“He’s spent 10 years in a hammock, swinging away there. The numbers have just rolled through the door.”}
God. Rudd is such a bore compared to Keating. The current crop of pollies are so careful – and dull.
BxTom at 56,
I reckon Howard is a Brazilian.
An artificial little bush.
Does anyone else agree that the government has gone from having a very clear succession plan, to having none?
12 months ago anyone asked would have assumed that Costello would succeed Howard.
I’m not sure it’s as clear anymore.
Is that a plus or a minus for the government?
53 Howard Hater Says: September 6th, 2007 at 12:18 pm
Dobell, yes, Robertson, no. Two disappointments for the price of one. Too many rusted on grey voters down the soutern end of the ‘Coast for the Minister for Local Government, Territories and Roads to be troubled but I expect Mr Ticehurst will be going back to selling lightning data.
As for a US-Australian treaty, like the mini-agreement earlier in the week, would raise the question of why now after we blindly followed them into Iraq and have stayed there to help them, why it is only now they are beginning to share stuff with us. There isn’t much milk in the alliance cow for Howard.
GG at 67 – I’ll pay that. It also infers that Howard is closer to a %$#@ than any one else I know.
Scorpio,
one of my (many) favourite P.K quotes was regarding the benefit Costello drew from Keating’s reforms – “this bloke got hit in the arse with a rainbow.”
Pure gold.
There are two things you can say about John Howard – love him or loathe him – he plays to win, and he doesn’t mind taking politicial risks. So we can all be sure he will not be just going through the motions and hoping to avoid the worst. He will be on-song. He will be straight out to win, come what may.
He must know that waiting will only make him look reluctant to fight, which of course he’s not: he never has ducked a chance for a scrap.
His biggest challenge is to try to regain the political initiative – to re-frame what is now passing for politics. Howard has been saying for quite a while now that the “circuit-breaker” will be the announcement of the poll itself. I think he’s right and he will call the poll as soon as he can.
From Howard’s point of view, calling the poll will maximise the chance that the media and the politically-sensitized will stop focussing on the opinion polls and start focussing on him. It will also help to lift the morale of his team, who must be feeling they are bogged in an eternal cycle of poll-driven damnation.
The campaign is also likely to be the minimum. The pre-poll season has been seemingly interminable: to give himself a chance, he needs to get the public to pay attention: to realise that the rehearsals are over and the time to make a real choice is upon them.
He will also have an eye on the financial markets, hoping that stress there does not simmer over into generalised interest rate rises, regardless of the policy of the RBA. There is a real chance that some interest rates will be re-set in coming weeks – especially overdraft rates, commercial mortgage rates, loans for investment properties and the stock-market, vehicle loans and many kinds of revolving credit.
This would signal trouble ahead for the economy and, you would have to think, foreshadow political ruin for the Liberals.
I think the poll will be called by Tuesday-week at the latest – by 18 September. If his own polling shows even a glimmer of an APEC-bounce, he will go sooner than this: next Friday or Saturday are on the cards.
John Howard will believe he can run Labor into the ground (and numb the media and electorate into submission in the process) if he has some clear air. He will punt on the
first practical date: 20 October looks the brightest button in the box but even 13 October is not out of the question if APEC plays well for him.
Not long now!
A nice overview of a strong strategic possibility for the Libs – blindoptimist. I’m not sure though – why would the initiative immediately swing back to Mr. Howard? He hasn’t been able to say/do anything to give him a sustained boost all year. Would announcing an election give him that? Or would it simply make Mr. Rudd/Labor even more interesting?
Bx Tom and GG
as a paid-up feminist who should take umbrage -hilarious.
True Blindoptimist, but Rudd has comprehensively outmaneuvered Rodent till now, and I cant see that changing.
You can bet Rudd’s got some snappy policy announcements ready to roll, 10 minutes after the election is called, Rudd will be attemptiing to set the agenda.
Howard has to win every week of the campaign, and Rudd will be giving him hurdles to clear every Monday.
The ALP has kept heaps in reserve here.
Oh Dear, Chaser Duo held over “Fake Motorcade” @ APEC.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/06/2025817.htm?section=justin
blind optimist, while I agree (hope) that Howard will call the election soon, to get people listening again, i doubt it will help with the opinion polls – they will be even more frequent during the campaign, and who knows what they will say.
I had to give evidence at that Senate committee Dennis Atkins refers to. (Usual affair of Senators trying to score points against each other by asking questions unrelated to your submission).
Interesting evidence from the AEC’s Deputy: (a) they don’t feel their independence at risk at all from this ad hoc plebiscitery – all polls are politically charged he said. But (b) they would likely run these as postal ballots (cheaper) and want to do them in their own good time, probably in stages across Qld. October 20 was too soon. The inference I drew is these ballots will drag on, region by region, well past the election date.
My thinking is this: the rate rise will predominately feature in the thinking of Howard and is strategists, simply because they made it the issue last election, and thus now need to face the consequences of that. Following this logic, they will be avoiding the issue as much as they can. So, my logic is:
– A rate rise by the RBA in the middle of a campaign would burn the government, potentially to the point of no return (appreciating many think that this point has already passed, but the liberals won’t be thinking that)
– There is little the government can do in the space of three weeks to bring about or prevent a rate rise in October, the decision has essentially already been made – barring exceptional circumstances. The reporting prior to the meeting rarely goes from ‘rates are definitely not going to be raised’ one month to a ‘there is a strong possibility of a raise’ the next month. It’s something the government has no control over. Thank christ. My bet, as is most, is that rates will remain on hold in October.
– Not even the RBA is gutsy enough to raise rates in December, the Christmas period, again barring exceptional circumstances. Essentially that’s a moot point, I doubt the government will go any later then early December.
– Thus Howard has two choices. Risk a late November/early December election, and a very long campaign, and hope that rates do not rise in November. Or, go before the November RBA meeting (which would be November 3 and before.)
I don’t really think inflated CPI figures would harm him, the electorate generally has no idea what such figures mean (as evidenced by the scare campaign success in 2004) and besides, I would imagine people are selfish enough to not care about raising inflation if they get some goodies themselves. I think the ‘growing economy’ factor will cancel out the interest rate rise factor – assuming he goes by november 3.
Of course, I still think (hope?) Howard will chuck it in after APEC. It would be just like the media to have absolutely no idea what he is planning, as has been the case for the past ten years or so (the wild speculation of dates proves most if not all of them have absolutely no idea when the election is happening, and are all pulling fluff out of their respective arses. By process of elimination, one of them will eventually get it right.)
Same thing happens every three years. Don’t you love it?
This was stuck in moderation – think I know why – trying again – apologies if the first version pops up…
Whatever has happened with booking of mailouts, or whatever, I just can’t see Howard calling it on with the most recent Newspoll at 59-41. Maybe his internal polling is better, but I can’t see it being better than say 55-45.
Also, it is terribly difficult to make the opposition leader the focus of the formal campaign, when it’s yourself the people are sick of. Keating managed it in 1993, but failed dismally in 1996 against a cannier opposition leader.
Voters may focus more during the campaign, and I don’t think anyone seriously expects the ultimate election numbers to be at ~57-43 2PP, but if voters retain the perception that Rudd is basically competent (which he is) then the coalition is stuffed. For that reason, a long formal campaign is likely, which from Howard’s perspective may expose the alleged Rudd glass jaw. It certainly worked for Howard in 2004, and Latham was clearly rattled by the end of that campaign. Against this, Rudd is both harder working and more unflappable than Latham…
Unless international financial markets are very stable between now and November, and the August rate rise shows no impact upon the burgeoning inflation figures, there will be no formal RBA rate rise this year.
As to that, if the coalition has genuine hopes of winning this election, they will need to put together a credible argument justifying their management of the economy, including the need for rate rises. The coalition are simply not going to win if the ALP is seen as more competent at managing the economy.
I still think the actual election will be later rather than sooner. My pick for the date is 1 December.
This APEC security nonsense is getting ridiculous! And it’s losing Howard more votes in Sydney.
Apologies for the very poor grammar last post – I hit submit by accident. Oops.
I’m a little dubious about claims (Lefty E @ 26) that the RBA won’t raise interest rates during an election campaign. Glenn Stevens has quite clearly indicated that if action needs to be taken, it will. I doubt whether he’d be willing to open himself or the Board to claims of dereliction of duty, nor accusations of a lack of independence.
Even more relevant, perhaps, is the possibility that, in *not* changing interest rates because of the proximity of the election, the RBA would be open to accusations of political interference from the ALP.
I (and many others) would be very interested to read the RBA’s justifications for not taking action, if the October 24 CPI release is at the upper limit, or even outside the RBA’s target inflation range.
I (and many others) would be very interested to read the RBA’s justifications for not taking action, if the October 24 CPI release is at the upper limit, or even outside the RBA’s target inflation range.
–
But they only publish reasons when they raise rates, yes, not when they leave them unchanged?
[From Howard’s point of view, calling the poll will maximise the chance that the media and the politically-sensitized will stop focussing on the opinion polls and start focussing on him.]
I don’t think so. All the polling organisations will start polling weekly as soon as the election is called. If there continues to be massive (10+) margins then this will just support the perception that Howard is doomed.
Those suggesting a long formal campaign should look at the statements from the government in 2004. They said they couldn’t afford a long campaign because Labor and the unions would spend more then them. Nothing has changed for them. They could hold on for a later election and use ‘government’ advertising just to hold them over.
Also, since the electoral roll now closes 8pm the day the election is called, not when the writs are issued. Given that, there is no reason to take a long time to issue the writs.
My guess has always been for a short formal campaign.
A cogent argument blindoptimist (72)!
The scary thing for JWH is that he has absolutely NO control over money markets – not that he’d let on – and they are moving rates up regardless of RBA decisions. The spread between the RBA cash rate and bank bill rates have blown out to over 0.5% over the last month. That’s two RBA rate movements that banks are currently absorbing in their costs. One analyst I read this morning suggested evey basis point (0.01%) increase in the cash / bills spread costs $700k in bank profit per month. So it’s a game of who blinks first on raising rates. One has already lifted their rates on “low-doc” loans, and I reckon its only a matter of time til the rest clatter along like the bunch of sheep they are.
So the only choice left for JWH is to go early and go hard. It’s a strategy that probably won’t be successful, but the alternative is worse.
Not long til our next Anthony Green fix. Can’t wait!
Poor old Johnny, he just can’t take a trick, can he…. Boo Hoo.
[quote]But they only publish reasons when they raise rates, yes, not when they leave them unchanged?[/quote]
I stand corrected.
However, it doesn’t change the point that the RBA would come under intense scrutiny/criticism were it to ignore what is generally regarded by the market/experts as a strong reason to take action. Were inflation outside the target range, the ALP would be screaming blue murder that the RBA is neglecting its duties/primary task to avoid rocking the boat for Howard.
Oh I forgot I am going to get my offer of employment as an AEC officer probably pretty soon.
I’m backing Oct 27. It will not be Nov 3. The newspapers wont have a bar of it. Believe me. 😉
There is as much chance of a Nov 3 election as the same weekend as a Rugby League or AFL Grand Final.
What? The ‘newspapers won’t have a bar of it’… it’ll interfere with their racing coverage or something, Centre? It will be a crap season anyway. It’s not that I disbelieve you, Centre, but could you enlighten me as to why precisely newspapers dislike Nov. 3?
For the same reasons it wont be on the same weekend as the football grand finals.
I would be more worried about the banks putting up interest rates than the RBA seeing as their costs of borrowing are increasing.
They close 8pm the day of the writ (for most people) rather than 7 days after the issue of the writ.
The ‘calling of the election’ is not an official document. Until the writ is issued by the GG there is no election, and hence the AEC can’t take official action (like close the rolls).