PRIME Minister John Howard is under pressure to call the federal election quickly, after the release of boom economic growth figures that threaten to push interest rates higher by November. Despite another horrendous opinion poll this week showing a potential election wipe-out, Mr Howard yesterday appeared to hint he would go to the polls sooner rather than later. Political pressure on him to do so has been intensified by the latest GDP figures, which show the Australian economy has been growing at its fastest annual pace for three years … With an increased prospect of an interest rate rise in November, many in the Government – which has staked its re-election hopes on its ability to sell its economic credentials – will be wanting the election before the inflation figures come out on October 24, or at least before the Reserve Bank board meeting to be held in early November. That would mean a polling day of October 20 or 27. An October 20 poll would have to be called in about 10 days.
THE Senate Finance and Public Administration Committee was in Cairns yesterday conducting its inquiry into the Commonwealth Electoral Amendment (Democratic Plebiscites) Bill 2007. This dry piece of parliamentary advice masks an intensely political exercise and explains why John Howard will not call an election the moment his APEC fiesta shuts down next Sunday. The legislation is the stunt law that Howard pulled out of his box of tricks to drive a wedge between Labor leader Kevin Rudd and his fraternal Queensland Premier Peter Beattie … The committee reports on Friday and the Senate will debate the law next Tuesday, when it’s expected to be passed, in time for plebiscites on Beattie’s amalgamations likely on October 20.
THERE was speculation last night that Prime Minister John Howard could delay calling the federal election until November or even as late as early December. Yesterday, Mr Howard gave his strongest hint yet that the election date would not be held in October after declaring that the federal takeover of the Devonport Mersey Hospital would not occur until November 1. Mr Howard said the Tasmanian Labor Government had agreed to the terms of the handover of the hospital in the state’s north and that the documents would be signed between the two governments on that date. Senior Liberal insiders said it would be wrong to assume too much from the announcement, but said a later election was now a genuine possibility. “Nobody knows the date except the Prime Minister, but you would have to think a later election is now a good chance,” a senior government figure said.
A Canberra insider told me today with absolute certainty that the election would be announced on 13 September. I was told that Howard does not believe he can cut through the political disengagement that has grown up with the last 8 months of pseudo-campaigning. Howard needs a circuit-breaker. In whispered tones, it was also suggested that Howard would rather go to the polls now than face a leadership challenge from Costello, Abbott or Downer – apparently an almost certainty if the Coalition’s poor showing in the opinion polls continues for much longer. According to my source, there would be a longish seven week campaign designed to test Kevin Rudd in the reality of campaign politics (and hopefully expose some Rudd flaws and gaffes). The election would be on 3 November 2007. Living in Canberra, I often hear these (so called) insider rumours. Rarely do they prove true.
Crikey:
Tips and rumours: The election date will be Nov 3. This is based upon the bookings made with Australia Post for mass mailots by the coalition – including in Bennelong. The Coalition recently cancelled their November mailouts and have maintained October ones.
I know the racing festivals are popular – maybe it’s just me – but I don’t think racing is as popular as the football finals. At least in that mass market – selling newspapers – sense. I could be wrong.
In terms of a wedge issue for Howard, how about going green in Tasmania – opposing the pulp mill and calling for Tasamania’s status as a state to be downgraded to regional council level with all other powers tranfered to federal level.
Or offer it to NZ for a $1
Do you think the New Zealanders would take it for a dollar?
Anyone else curious as to why the Oz hasn’t posted comments on blogs since about 4:30pm yesterday?
John R, as far as newspaper coverage is concerned, they are both of just about equal importance.
okay, I believe you Centre! 🙂
John,
Perhaps, if we excluded Bob Brown from the deal.
Martin B, I stand corrected.
They’re too busy ordering new iPods?
Crikey today speculates the Howard will considering his future over the weekend- and is sounding out his closest advisers, Janette and his old chief of staff Graeme Morris. The speculation is that he will quit early next week – or announce the election. Dolly Downer is said to have been prominent in convincing Howard to think hard. This is separately sourced speculation from that contained in my post yesterday.
Crikey story speculating about impending Howard resignation:
http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20070906-The-last-days-of-John-Howard.html
One would think perhaps that Monday’s AC Neilson may be even more important in light of this…
*Snap Alpal*
Yeah, Bob Brown is okay – though there is a bit of the cult of personality about him. Lucky thing he is still a relatively young man… hard to imagine the Greens with a different leader or indeed having a different leader. It’s always disturbed me how there has never been a second banana within cooeee of the Big Bob… is he squashing the ambitious within the party?
Oh No, I don’t want him to go. I want him to concede defeat and lose his seat. 🙁
Well if he resigns, that means we can shift Bennelong to the Labor gain column. 😛
He will only resign if he can orchestrate a smooth change over, and that would have to mean Costello, probably with Abbott as deputy.
I don’t think Costello has P.M. makes it any easier for them to win.
I don’t seem to be beng posted today, but will try again.
I’d rather see Howard lose, but will still enjoy a coward’s exit… and celebrate hard regardless.
I’ve already planned a party along the lines of those “ding dong the witch is dead” parties that anti-Thatcherites in the UK are planning when the iron lady departs forever.
WHO WOULD ACCEPT THE LEADERSHIP AT THIS POINT THOUGH???
Ah, maybe Downer, the loyal supporter?
Hmmm… very interesting. If this story is a plant by Costello, one would have to wonder “why”? If he wants the leadership, he should challenge, not try to force a resignation at this point. But why would he want the leadership with the polls as they are?
Perhaps it’s actually a smoke-screen put about by Howard to allow the electorate’s “mind to be focussed”?
I can’t believe Howard will resign. Apart from the personal ignominy, I really don’t think he wants to gift Bennelong to Maxine; it’ll make the ALP’s job that much easier. He’s a rock oyster, and will have to be prised off with a screwdriver.
It wont save him any humiliation, and it will lose the Libs Bennelong. So, on balance, I cant see it happening.
Howard’s resignation would be met with headlines that see 1,000 variations on “Rodent Leaves Sinking Ship” – nice legacy, C-c-c-coward.
Wow, just wikied Bob Brown – he’s actually not that young. He’s holding up very well! The Greens are going to be in big trouble 10 years from now.
Howard is indeed caught between a rock and a hard place, a dilemma entirely of his own making.
Got no sympathy for him. He should have reined his ego in and resigned a year ago, an undefeated conservative hero. But he looks like having blown it totally. He will now be seen as either a major loser or a cut-and-run coward. Both bitterly unpalatable options.
If and its a big if, Howard resigns and Costello takes over, who will be treasurer? The experience tag will be useless with a totally untried person in the driving seat.
No it ain’t going to happen. 🙂
Some news from the country booths.
The Batemans Bay Post is a NSW regional paper that services an area straddling Eden-Monaro (Gary Nairn) margin 3.3% and Gilmore (Joanna Gash) margin 9.5%. This editorial summarises the mood in the area:
http://www.batemansbay.yourguide.com.au/detail.asp?class=your+say&subclass=general&story_id=1048369&category=opinion
as does this extract from the featured letter of the week by a pensioner.
Howard’s real battlers.
“No wonder Prime Minister Howard wants people to work until they drop. It’s the only way they will survive…………..The politicians’ 6.7% salary increase went through Parliament recently, on top of the 7% increase received last year. These increases are much more than the inflation rate.
Our dear Prime Minister received, from July 1, an increase of about $807 a fortnight, while the current full fortnightly rate for a single pensioner is $525.10 and $438.50 each for a married couple.
So much for Howard’s battlers…..they’re exactly that.”Â
This has been going on for months now. Gary Nairn is gone, Mike Kelly will win Eden-Monaro easily, but it looks to me that Joanna Gash might also be in trouble. Her 9.5% margin may be misleading, as Gilmore was an ALP seat up to 1996 and the ALP candidate there, Neil Reilly has been campaigning strongly for sometime.
Nah, Mr. Howard is not going anywhere. The Liberals are like the mafia – the Don just can’t stand down… the Don has to be ‘removed’. Then the deputies get to fight it out for a decade to see who the new don will be. Alliances are tied to the person.
If Howard just left, the question of the front bench/cabinet would be blown wide open. There should have been a major reshuffle long ago… but in this circumstance, who’d be promoted – who’d go sideways… who’d go down… would the new PM refine or remove policies – the electorate would be terrible confused, the government would be in chaos and Rudd would be, in comparison, a very comforting figure. If the new PM did nothing – no reshuffle – no new policy… nothing at all happened… then why remove Howard. Getting rid of Howard just digs them a deeper hole.
There is not enough time for them to rebrand a new generation, a new leader, a new liberal party…
It is probably better for the Liberals if they go to the election with Howard, then any loss can be pinned on him, and the next generation of leaders can move in relatively untainted.
“If this story is a plant by Costello, one would have to wonder “whyâ€? If he wants the leadership, he should challenge, not try to force a resignation at this point.”
I don’t think it can be a challenge at this point – he’ll just have blood on his hands and it’ll look like the party’s imploding (more than usual for this month). But Howard may smoothly step aside. I’ve changed my mind about eight times on this today alone… ‘Howard’s self-belief will keep him there’, ‘no, he’s a Liberal first and foremost, he’ll resign to give the party a chance’… arggh. I’d decided it’s all crap, of course he’ll go down fighting, but now the Crikey article makes a change sound plausible….
Someone make it stop…
Surely Alexander ‘Things that batter’ Downer wouldn’t try for the leadership. He has been useless as the Foreign Affairs Minister and he was useless as the Opposition Leader ages ago.
I’m not convinced Howard is going anywhere. The Libs could not win with anyone else as leaders (especially at this late stage). And while it is a long gap to cover, i think Howard will back himself to expose Rudd during the campaign.
personally, i’m not sure that it will work, but i’m sure no one on his side of politics considers anything else an option.
If Downer becomes leader, the Coalition will be lucky to win any more than 20 seats. Have we all forgotten “The things that batter”? LOL
I’ll argue Howard has too much arrogance and pride to throw in the towel. And, I want the satisfaction of watching the bastard actually concede defeat on election night.
“The problem with Downer is that he is a boy doing a man’s job.”
– Paul Keating
The fact that Crikey today have the Powerpoint Crosby/Textor June 21 research in FULL today surely indicates that this stuff is coming from someone in the Government…
http://www.crikey.com.au/Media/docs/CrosbyTextorReportCompletePart1of2-0ba6a412-8ff0-49e2-b940-599e5f25c279.pdf
http://www.crikey.com.au/Media/docs/CrosbyTextorReportCompletePart2of2-9725c436-2177-4546-9e48-cac56ffa78e0.pdf
Surely he won’t resign. Say whatever you will about JWH, the one thing he has never done is shrink from a fight.
Curiously, that Crosby / Textor research reported only a 3.8% swing to Labor in QLD. I thought it was at least double that.
If Downer becomes leader they will be struggling to win any seats.
I hope at least this leadership speculation jumps from Crikey into the mainstream press. It would be great to see Howard at APEC defending leadership speculation!
How many Americans can we think of who are less popular than Pres Bush? Um, there’s OJ Simpson… Mike Tyson who bites people’s ears off… and Sol Trujillo probably. But there’s the PM, smiling and waving from on high with Bush, and Hyacinth next to them both all pink with pleasure. Backbenchers must be banging their heads on desks as it all unfolds and unwinds around them. So yeah, BV, they’re leaking like a sieve and there’s a lot of talk. But at this stage of the electoral cycle it’s Howards Call. What sort of guy is he? After all these years of dissembling, I’m buggered if I know. Could go either way. I hope Howard stays though, for same reasons as HH et al.
Michael,
“I’d rather see Howard lose, but will still enjoy a coward’s exit… and celebrate hard regardless.
I’ve already planned a party along the lines of those “ding dong the witch is dead†parties that anti-Thatcherites in the UK are planning when the iron lady departs forever.”
While I rather liked Thatcher (in spite of the fact that she is of the opposite political persuasion to me), I hear you loud and clear about the “witch is dead” parties :):) …. I will be breaking into something here I tell you and we don’t keep much around the house on a routine basis so if this news comes up quicksmart and surprises me, I will break into the strong stuff and down some vodka straight, don’t care what time of the day it is lol
When the election is called and during the weeks leading to polling day, there will be more scrutiny by voters of Mr. Rudd, or (as he likes to call himself) the alternative Prime Minister. Some assume this will be a good thing for Mr. Rudd and the Australian Labor Party and further assume that the 2PP margin will widen in the ALP’s favour because the alternative Prime Minister is, self evidently, intelligent, capable, very articulate and has a fair amount of goodwill towards him within the electorate. At the moment, there is an air of inevitability about an ALP victory so much so that I (ridiculously) wonder why we cannot have it all over and done with without any election campaign and then have Mr. Rudd ditching the “alternative” when referring to himself. I make the trite observation that the current Prime Minister is left with a hope which is now (perhaps) improbable: that the election campaign will be the “circuit breaker” for him in the sense that the voters will be looking at Mr. Rudd no longer through a prism of boredom with JWH but as the man who will be their leader and have responsibility for appointing ministers, chairing cabinet meetings and legislating his policies. Thus, I can see that we do need an election campaign afterall because then we can all test our assumptions about Mr. Rudd and the ALP’s prospects.
Wow, really? Could that be because we live in a democracy?
‘Scuse me, but are people suggesting that if Howard`resigns before the election that Downer might end up ….Prime Minister????????
Nothing in politics could be that bizarre surely.
To those who think Costello will lose the Coalition’s “good economic manager” tag: do you seriously think it will take Costello more then a day to tell people Howard had nothing to do with the booming the economy, and that it was all him? And any longer then a week for people to believe him? This is the treasurer of the federal government for ten years we are talking about, and he already implies the fact he thinks Howard is a dill in every second speech he makes. While people don’t necessarily take well to his arrogance, I think most accept he has done a decent job as treasurer. I highly doubt people will think the country will become worse off with him in charge – all he has to do is point at swan as the alternative treasurer if Labor got in.
I can’t see them losing points on the economy if such a switch were made. Nor do I think Costello would turn the job down if presented next week unless he seriously thought he would be better off letting Downer or Abbott reduce the libs to a rump before taking over next year. Such a loss would probably consign them to a couple of terms on the backbench, does he have the patience to wait for that long? And the numbers for that matter? I would have thought he would take his chances at this poll, with the added benefit of not having to campaign for eight months. If he loses he could elect to stay and take Rudd on in three years, with a half-decent chance at winning if they cock it up, or resign the leadership & his seat, and wander off to make millions in the business world. Letting somebody else destroy the party first really isn’t in his best interests.
(all this leader talk reminds me of the Chaser boys last night, can’t decide whether I liked Costello’s, Turnballs or Swan’s shirt better…)
Howard spent so long trying to become PM through all the Peacock stuff, the Joh for PM stuff, the Hawke stuff … This guy is not going to go quietly. Any Howard resignation would be completely contrary to his political modus operandi. I’ll dip my head in a bucket of Adelaide grey-water if I’m wrong !
I don’t know anyone who doesn’t think that the gap will narrow during the campaign. Nor do I know anyone who is certain Howard will lose. That is why we’re all so bloody nervous.
John Rocket Says:
September 6th, 2007 at 1:03 pm
A nice overview of a strong strategic possibility for the Libs…I’m not sure though – why would the initiative immediately swing back to Mr. Howard?
Bungs Says:
September 6th, 2007 at 1:23 pm
blind optimist, while I agree (hope) that Howard will call the election soon, to get people listening again, i doubt it will help with the opinion polls – they will be even more frequent during the campaign, and who knows what they will say…
John, I don’t think the initiative will necessarily swing back to Howard. But this is his best shot.
Further delay will exacerbate the torment for the Liberals. Kevin Rudd and Labor have had a dream run: he has been transformed from a could-be Opposition Leader to a shoo-in Prime Minister. The idea that more time will help Howard is just misguided: Rudd has already had too much time from the standpoint of the Liberals.
If he is to have any chance at all of winning, the PM has to get people to listen to his pitch – afterall, his strong suit has always been his ability to argue from his convictions. But if no-one will listen to him he has no chance. He has to take the plunge despite the baggage he’s carrying.
Bungs, what you say is right, too. But if things run back to Howard in the polls, he has a chance: if he can halt the momentum then maybe he can reverse it. He has to make this bet – it’s double or nothing now.
I think he will most likely lose. Too many people in too many places have changed their allegiance. But at least he will be a contender. At the moment he is not much more than an Ex-Prime Minister….
I agree with you entirely Michael.
I think perhaps its the fact that i’ve never had an Federal ALP govt in my adult life that i am so petrified about this election.
Further adding fuel to the fire is that my father has already predicted an ALP victory. Which he did in 1998, 2001 and 2004.
I hope Howard calls the election and doesn’t resign. I can’t handle the wait anymore.
*This guy is not going to go quietly.*
My thoughts exactly. But, if presented with polling data which suggests that the only 2 alternatives are to resign or lose badly?
HEY! We need that water for drinking!
I’ll dip my head in the bucket whilst standing over my lawn Simon 🙂