Newspoll: 59-41

I’m hearing it, but not quite yet believing it – Labor’s Newspoll lead has apparently widened to a breathtaking 59-41 (from 55-45 last time). Details to follow as they come to hand.

UPDATE: Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has increased from 46-39 to 48-37.

UPDATE 2: Comments thread rumours tell of a Labor primary vote of 51 per cent, against 37 per cent for the Coalition.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

659 comments on “Newspoll: 59-41”

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  1. Steveo says:
    “59 – 41 This is an unexpected but welcomed result”

    Reminds me of the night when JWH won control of the senate he spoke these words “an unexpected yet welcomed result”

  2. Yikes. If true, it’s probably at least part rogue, so best not to get too jubilant about it. Then again, it’ll certainly be picked up by the media as ‘government in dire straits’, so that’ll set the tone for the gallery for the next week.

  3. I just read someone in the other thread scolding us for getting excited about a poll sampling a measley 2000 voters.

    Need we go over the consistantly above 50% polls for over a year all over again.

  4. Ouch that PPM is more significant than the 2PP. Wake me up when its over…WOW.

    Glen go to post @245 on previous thread, punch in a number, take 3 panadol and go to bed mate. Good night Glen and goodbye JWH.

  5. Under any other circumstances, this poll result would be labelled an outlier and dismissed. But it comes after last week’s Galaxy of 57-43 and a general drift back towards Labor over the last few weeks. Morgan’s result on Friday was probably the outlier.

    This is a very damaging result for Howard, not just because of the lack of support for his government, but because of the negative headlines that will surface over the next couple of days related to this result, just when Howard was hoping for positive stories from APEC.

  6. Little Johnnys gone gone gone.The look on Lord Downers face on lateline.Not a hint of his usual arrogance.Very pissed off.Bring on the election.

  7. Yikes. If true, it’s probably at least part rogue

    How do we know? It might be, but then again it might not. What it DOES say is that, even if the margin of error is huge, the govt is in major, major trouble. The previous Newspoll showed a gap that was workable. This one doesn’t.

    Oh dear, now they have Downer on Lateline to seal the deal…

  8. Galaxy was 57-43 so this is not necessarily a rogue poll. It’s a bit of a shock though. One interest rate rise and all the government gains of the last few months wiped out. It’s going to be hard for them to peg this one back. I think the government may just be history. I have my fingers crossed that I wil hear the rodent concede in the next 8 weeks.

  9. Generic Oracle (230 on the thread that was open when I started typing and closed when I pushed submit),

    Yes, I remember the glossy government brochures, booklets, CDs, etc -and the not-so-glossies of the same – unused and unwanted. I used to throw some stuff in the bin as soon as I got it in the Kennett years. But educational discourse is dominated by those who know nothing who have deliberately denigrated those who do know so that the latter’s credibility is reduced.

    As for Newspoll, I didn’t see that coming – and I don’t believe it either. Labor is in front and will stay in front and will win, but 59-41 is Morganitic.

  10. I’d think this poll is at the upper end of its margin of error as morgan was probably at the lower end – this still leaves a 2pp at 56 or 57 to with Howard running out of cards to play.

    The “go to the polls after the APEC bounce” strategy is now dead. He’ll hang on – but he may just make it worse.

    A bit late
    Kevin 08

  11. An extraordinary result and it looks like it might become a rout. It appears that there has been a small move to Labor over the last month, after a winter of flatlining. This could be bcause Rudd has annouonced a couple of big policies, the health takeover and IR. The latter was said to be Labor’s achilles heel, but it seems to have met with muted approval. Somoething to remember with IR, is that WorkChoices is poison in the electorate – they may not understand the intricacies, nor may it be affecting them particularly, but there is a deep-seated loathing of it. Every time IR is in the news, whatever the context, it is bad news for the government.

    The down side is that this probably means the October election is off – on those numbers it’s easy to imagine the election on the 8th December, or even the 15th (surely the latest he could possibly go). Three more months of this – I’m not sure I can take it!

  12. Crank up the shredders, Team Rodent!

    We’re coming up the stairs.

    Take one last look around, cos the last chopper’s to the Brisbane Lord mayoral office is leaving the roof, right about now.

  13. taken with the 3 % Galaxy shift, this could be a trend

    best result for ALP since May

    preferred PM now 11% different

    how will The Oz and Shanahan spin this and will they even bother

  14. No one knows the election result and I pray every day to see Howard lose.

    Howard may still win. But I have decided that I am going to enjoy watching the downfall.

    59/41 and PPM 48/37 is back in April territory. Fantastic result.

    I am going to sleep soundly tonight and dream of Howards tears as I drift off.

  15. So have Morgan F2F changed something as they have recently given us three 55s? Even as their phone polls gave the usual high F2F level.

  16. If Howard delays until 2008 the margin might be 69-31 by then.

    Everyone (like me) who enjoyed that, please use some of your goodwill and give William a donation for making this site the fun place that it is 🙂

  17. This is just amazing. I want to see Shanahan write about how important the PPM figure is now that it is widening to disastrous proportions for the PM.

    I know that it is extreme, but 59-41 is just under a 12% swing. This would be 57 seats gained.

  18. This would translate into Labor winning 57 seats

    It would be 117-31

    This ain’t gonna happen, but it still could be a bloodbath….

    Still in shock

  19. Consistent with Galaxy.

    I’ve never been so happy to be wrong (I’d expected 55/45, 2pp).

    And poor old Howard wasting his time poncing around with APEC. Talk about fiddling while Rome burns.

    Agree with Dario about the aussies4anzus people. All two of them.

  20. This is the “OMG, OMG we are all going to die” poll. On these numbers the primary for Labor must be 50%.

    This election has developed not necessarily to the Coaltion’s advantage.

  21. I saw the new ACTU ad tonight – very effective! Has it been playing long enough to affect Newspoll results?

    Are the latest Newspoll results enough for The Australian to give up its “the honeymoon must end/ Kevin Rudd is really under pressure now” spin? I think so – even Dennis Shanahan must face reality, though I think Malcolm Colless and Christopher Pearson will go down with the ship.

  22. [The “go to the polls after the APEC bounce” strategy is now dead. He’ll hang on – but he may just make it worse. ]

    I think this makes December 1 or 8 more likely. There is possibly going to be an interest rate rise on November 7th, so there needs to be some distance from that.

    If he waits until Dec 15th then surely he will be gone.

    Someone in the previous thread asked what 59 / 41 would equate to in seat terms, it would be about 119, including half of ministry gone.

  23. A surprising result, but not inconsistent with the trend. You’d have to think a few Lib MPs would be sounding out a new leader. Any other party (especially the ALP) would ditch its leader with such a gap on 2PP and preferred PM. Changing leaders may not work, but it’s hard to think of anything else that might.

    Brown moleskins might be appropriate APEC photo op uniform.

    I don’t think it’s about horse flu. I think it’s all about interest rates and IR.

  24. Hi Call the election please

    I agree with your comment in the last post, I didn’t mean to imply the highway press conference would have an impact, I just suggested steps should be taken to make sure it won’t happen again.

    ON tonights poll – holy crap—its all over, 4% increase is just increadible.

    At that margin, Kevin rein could do all his doorstops in a traffic island and still not lose the election

  25. Terrific figures they might be …

    but there are still hard yards to be done. If if you are not a member of a leftish party get out and letterbox, hand out HTVs at prepollls and on the day, screw in ear.

  26. To all those in the east, thank you for the updates tonight.

    I will enjoy my beer even more now waiting for Tony Jones in the soon to be safe Labor seat of Stirling.

  27. The telling line in that early Australian response to the poll was the last one

    “Polls usually move closer once the election is called, but this weekend’s result puts Labor much further ahead than John Howard was when he beat Labor prime minister Paul Keating in 1996”.

    That reads as an obituary to me, but it aint till its over.

  28. I fully support anyone donating towards the maintenance of William’s excellent site. Sir Eggo, you click the PayPal link at the top and go from there. I’m a big of an ignoamus when it comes to computers and I managed it, so it must be pretty easy….

  29. Wooooo, mama. The mother of all electoral storms cometh.

    Those baseball bats were a tea party.

    (I didnt whisper this: but 4 senate seats in two states aint impossible.)

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